BETCRUSHERS PREVIOUS WEEKS RESULTS
Yanni – 9-7
JJ – 5-11
BETCRUSHERS SEASON RESULTS TO DATE
Yanni – 16-15-1
JJ – 12-19-1
PREVIOUS WEEK RECAP
What an absolutely unstable week two in the National Football League. There were injuries to superstars, egregious calls and penalties, and some wild play calls beginning with the end of the Thursday night game and going through Monday night. When you’ve had a week like we had, the next weekend can’t come soon enough as we’re eager to regain the momentum we had in week one.
Yanni had the upper hand last week and was able to put together a 9-7 week against the spread. JJ stumbled going with several underdogs and taking the points. Normally that is the best strategy on an NFL weekend, but so far this season it’s been a favorites world that we’re living in. Rest assured the sportsbooks will adjust to that in order to make some of the money back that they’ve given away after two weeks. That’s evidenced by the spreads in this week’s Dallas Cowboys/Miami Dophins game and the New England Patriots/New York Jets matchup. We won’t be playing most of these against the spread again this week as their are some more intriguing totals and teasers to evaluate, but here’s what we’ve got:
vs. 
TENNESSEE TITANS (1-1) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (0-2)
Thursday – September 19th – 8:20pm
Spread: Tennessee Titans -2
Over/Under: 38.5
Public Money Percentage: Tennessee 59%
The Breakdown:
The Thursday Night matchup is a divisional contest of two teams that really need a win if they want to make anything of the 2019 season. Tennessee looked unstoppable in week one before falling flat in their second game of the season. Jacksonville is a team that’s a little in flux at the quarterback position with prize free agent Nick Foles on the shelf and their best player, corner Jalen Ramsey openly stating he wants out of the organization. In a division that’s somewhat up for grabs, this game could have big implications at the end of the season.
Marcus Mariota has fared well in his career against Jacksonville and everyone remembers Derrick Henry’s 99 yard touchdown run from a year ago. This Titan defense is pretty strong particularly against the run so you can expect them to key in pretty hard on stopping Leonard Fournette and putting the game in rookie 6th round quarterback Gardner Minshew’s hands. The Titans will look to get pressure on Minshew and how well they can do that will have a big impact on this game. At some point it would be nice to see Mariota and former first round Corey Davis get on the same page. For whatever reason other than a couple of anomaly games, this duo has never really been in sync. Additionally, Adam Humphries was brought over to be a chain mover and slot weapon for Mariota. Throughout the first two games he’s been completely absent, but it’s likely he’ll be able to get going in this one as the Jags have struggled at times to cover slot receivers.
While we know what to expect from the Titan’s game plan, Jacksonville on the other hand is a little bit of a mystery. They should try to get Fournette going to protect their young QB, but it’s probably going to be a lot of 8 man fronts forcing Minshew to beat them through the air. The Jaguars get Marquise Lee back at wide receiver to work the slot and Minshew seems to have some early rapport with D.J. Chark down the field. They have some mustache Minshew Mania going in Jacksonville and the team has full confidence in his abilities. Although it’s a tough task for him to go against the Titans, he probably just needs to play an average game to give the team a chance to win. The Jaguar defense played really well against Houston and they are showing at least a little resemblance to the unit that dominated the league in 2017. The big question mark is around their All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey. He’s expected to play after demanding a trade and if he does in fact play, we’d expect him to play well during what very well could be an audition and last game in the Duval. For the Jaguars to win this game, their defense will need to make plays and force some short fields.
This game is a coin flip in our estimation, so we won’t be playing playing it straight up. We are however playing a small bet teaser taking the Jaguars at +8 and the under at 44.5.
If you want a live dog, you can consider taking the Jags on the moneyline as they should have a big homefield advantage in their opener. We aren’t pulling the trigger on that simply due to Mariota’s success against them, but this one should end up being a close one.
Yanni’s Pick – Jaguars +2 (Jaguars 22, Titans 19)
JJ’s Pick – Jaguars +2 (Titans 21, Jaguars 20)
vs. 
CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-2) at BUFFALO BILLS (2-0)
Sunday – September 22nd – 1:00pm
Spread: Buffalo Bills -6
Over/Under: 44
Public Money Percentage: Buffalo 54%
The Breakdown:
The Buffalo Bills welcome the Cincinnati Bengals for their home opener after a slightly surprising 2-0 start on the road to start the season. The Bengals looked good in defeat in week one in Seattle before getting throttled in their home opener against the 49ers.
New head coach Zac Taylor has gotten some production offensively as he was brought in to do, however the Bengals defense has been atrocious as many Bengal’s faithful feared entering the season. The Bills will look to their veteran defense to slow down the Bengal offense and make enough big plays to leave with a victory.
You have to feel a little for the Bengals who lost A.J. Green in day one of practice this summer as well as multiple offensive linemen. Despite that, they’ve been able to get some points on the board as Andy Dalton has played well overall, minus a poor second half last week. Tyler Boyd is really establishing himself as a number one receiver and successor to Green, and speedster John Ross is showing why they made him an early pick two seasons ago. The Bills are one of the top teams against the pass in the NFL and will be looking to slow that duo down. If they do, it could be a long day for the Bengals. One huge priority for Cincinnati is making Joe Mixon a factor in the running game. Mixon is a talented back who’s not finding a lot of running room behind that banged up offensive line.
The Bills Mafia will be fired up for their opener and watching their second year signal caller Josh Allen develop into what they hope is their franchise quarterback after decades of looking. Allen has looked comfortable and consistent throwing the ball, and is absolutely an underrated weapon running the ball on 3rd downs and in the red zone. Impressive Bills rookie running back Devin Singletary will miss the game with a hamstring injury opening the door for ageless Frank Gore to lead the backfield. Gore could legitimately have a 100 yard day in this one particularly if the Bills can get up early. When Buffalo runs the ball successfully they win, it’s a simple formula for them. The great news for their team is that the additions at WR of John Brown and Cole Beasley are making this offense balanced rather than one dimensional as it has been in years past. The Bengals have been vulnerable to big plays so far this season which is John Brown’s specialty. Don’t be surprised if he hits a deep one in this game.
The public money is about even in this one and we’re split on our picks as well. Yanni likes this one to be higher scoring and the Bills to have around a double digit win, while JJ is looking for a more defensive game that the Bengals keep close.
Yanni’s Pick – Bills -6 (Bills 29, Bengals 20)
JJ’s Pick – Bengals +6 (Bills 20, Bengals 17)
vs. 
DETROIT LIONS (0-0) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (0-0)
Sunday – September 22nd – 1:00pm
Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -5
Over/Under: 46
Public Money Percentage: Detroit 54%
The Breakdown:
The Lions enter week three coming off of big victory while the Eagles returned to Philadelphia putting a tough effort forth before losing a heartbreaker to the Falcons. If you cancel out the fourth quarter against Arizona, the Lions have been playing as good of football as anyone in the league not named the Chiefs or Ravens. The Eagles still have big aspirations for this season despite some big early season injuries that hampered their game in Atlanta.
In our preseason preview we wrote that the Detroit Lions were a team that wouldn’t make the playoffs due to playing in the NFC North, however would be a competitive team that was a tough out for anyone on Sundays. This game has all the makings of that exact scenario. The injury big has hit the Eagles pretty hard after just two weeks in the season which is going to be a factor in this game. The Lions as a result have some clear advantages in this game. Against the Chargers Kerryon Johnson was finally able to get some things going both rushing and receiving including a big play touchdown. In 2018 one of the Eagles biggest strengths was their deep defensive line. The departures of Michael Bennett and Chris Long weakened that a bit, and now injuries to Timmy Jernigan and newcomer Malik Jackson really have them lacking the depth, experience and talent they’ve been used to. This should help Johnson and the running game moving to at least keep Detroit balanced. Don’t anticipate a lot of running yards, but just enough carries to keep the pass rush of the Eagles honest. When the Lions do throw the ball, they could find some good success as the troubles of the Philly secondary have been well documented. The Lions have both threats down the field and over the middle that will pose problems for the Eagle defensive backs. If you haven’t been paying attention Kenny Golladay is lining himself up for a Pro Bowl season.
For the Eagles, this was supposed to be one of the most explosive offenses in the league, which we got a sneak preview of in the second half of their week one tilt with the Redskins. Fireworks were expected in a shootout last week with the Falcons but never materialized as their top two receivers Alshon Jeffery and deepthreat DeSean Jackson sat most of the game out with injuries. Jackson is already been ruled out and Jeffery looks like an “iffy” game-time decision at best. Next men up for the Iggles are rookie JJ Arcega-Whiteside and special teamer Mack Hollins to line up across from disappointing Nelson Agholor. Darius Slay and Quandre Diggs are two of the better DBs in the league that people don’t hear much about. The Eagles will find ways to move the ball with target machine Zach Ertz and their running backs, but this Lions defense should be able to keep them in the game based on the limited weapons Carson Wentz has to work with. One other note, the Eagles offensive line has really not performed as well as they were expected to so keep an eye on that for the rest of the season.
The BetCrushers circled this game when the early lines came out and grabbed it with the Lions getting the key touchdown number of seven anticipating a move. Sure enough this spread moved quickly to +6 and then +5 with news of Philadelphia injuries to key contributors. Even if you aren’t able to grab this at +7, we’re still confident playing this one at +5 is a solid play. These teams have played close games in previous seasons and we’ll expect this one to come down to a late score. The Eagles should find a way to win this one at home, while the Lions keep it close.
Yanni’s Pick – Lions +5 (Eagles 26, Lions 23)
JJ’s Pick – Lions +5 (Eagles 24, Lions 20)
vs. 
NEW YORK JETS (0-0) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (0-0)
Sunday – September 22nd – 1:00pm
Spread: New England Patriots -21.5
Over/Under: 43.5
Public Money Percentage: New England 70%
The Breakdown:
Even in an expected blowout like this one there’s no shortage of stories heading into it. The Antonio Brown hurricane saga has worked it’s way through New England after a one game preview of what may have been. The Jets felt good about backup Trevor Siemian holding down the fort until Sam Darnold could return from the teenage kissing disease, however that lasted only a quarter as a gruesome ankle injury ended his season. Luke Falk will take the reigns and has the great fortune of traveling to Foxborough to take on a Patriots team with a suddenly dominant defense.
If you really think about it, this is a good week for something like this to happen to Sam Darnold and the Jets. They weren’t going to win this game anyhow so not a huge deal. The Jets have had a rough start to the season blowing a big lead in week one and now being riddled by multiple injuries. LeVeon Bell has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing start and the Jets will run their offense through him this Sunday. The problem is there is zero chance that Bill Belichek and the Pats are going to let Bell beat them. They’re going to test Luke Falk, and the results are most likely not going to be good for New York. Defensively the Jets are missing some key components so you can expect a lot of holes that Tom Brady will be able to exploit.
We’re not going to waste your time or ours breaking this one down any further. Can the Jets man up enough on defense to keep this semi-competitive or is this complete massacre? Nearly 70% of the public is banking on a blowout backing New England.
Yanni’s Pick – Patriots -21.5 (Patriots 38, Jets 10)
JJ’s Pick – Jets +21.5 (Patriots 31, Jets 10)
vs. 
OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-1) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-1)
Sunday – September 22nd – 1:00pm
Spread: Minnesota Vikings -8.5
Over/Under: 43.5
Public Money Percentage: Minnesota 53%
The Breakdown:
Oakland and Minnesota square off with each team looking to rebound from a week two loss and searching for their second win of the season. This game is a mismatch on paper despite each team entering the week at 1-1.
The Raiders were electric in their week one win, running, passing and defensively. Derek Carr was protected, accurate and making really good decisions. Rookie Josh Jacobs got off to a great start and looks like the real deal at running back. When this team gets to Las Vegas they’re going to have some nice pieces in place when you throw in TE Darren Waller and a rebounded offensive line. The problem they’re going to have is when they get to Minnesota this weekend. The Vikings defense is no joke, particularly when they play at home. It’s tough to find an area where the Raiders will be able to have much success on either side of the ball.
For the Vikings this is the classic Kirk Cousins at home against an inferior team game. The translation for that is that he is going to play well. And if there is any player in the league that needs to play well it’s Cousins who has been an abysmal in his first two games. This is a good spot for Cousins and at least for a week he will be able to somewhat silent his very vocal critics. He’ll be helped by Dalvin Cook who should be able to find some room against a porous Raider run defense. Cook has been spectacular in his first two games. Adam Thielen will be a big factor in this game so expect a big day of production from him. We’re loading up on him in daily fantasy this week and looking at some over props for him.
This spread may seem too high as a lot of people saw the Raiders dynamic performance on Monday night in the season opener, but it’s absolutely not. The Vikings have everything lining in their favor in this one and a two touchdown win should be expected. This spread is up to 9 in most books but we had teased this when it was 8.5 to get through the key number of 3. That being said, if you want to play this game, lay the points, this one should be all purple.
Yanni’s Pick – Vikings -8.5 (Vikings 26, Raiders 17)
JJ’s Pick – Vikings -8.5 (Vikings 27, Raiders 13)
vs. 
BALTIMORE RAVENS (2-0) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2-0)
Sunday – September 22nd – 1:00pm
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -6
Over/Under: 52
Public Money Percentage: Even
The Breakdown:
The first true test for the recent hero of the league Lamar Jackson and the Ravens as they travel to Kansas City to take on previous hero Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. This is the game of the week as both teams are looking to stay perfect and the two hottest offenses so far this season clash. Technically Baltimore owns the number one offense in the league but the real question is can they keep up with the Chiefs or slow them down?
When the Ravens suggested Lamar Jackson was ready to take the leap from a running quarterback to an overall complete quarterback a lot of people were skeptical, ourselves included. Jackson has been nearly flawless through two games in an offense that it seems has more explosive plays already this year than a season ago. That should continue again against a still vulnerable Chiefs defense. Look for Mark Ingram to get some early work as well as the Ravens will try to establish the line of scrimmage. Rookie Marquise Brown needs to come up with some big plays to offset any of the fireworks from the Chiefs. The Ravens defense has also played well, although they haven’t really been tested going against two teams that are not very competitive. When you look closely at the Baltimore defense there is some cause for concern in this game if they cannot get the pass rush going. The Ravens have been strong against the run and with Damien Williams out and LeSean McCoy banged up it may make the Chiefs one-dimensional. Normally, you’d think this is a huge advantage, however in this case it may actually play against them. The more the Chiefs spread things out, Mahomes is able to find the matchup advantage he likes with his receivers and Travis Kelce.
This line has moved from opening at 7.5 down to 6 in most sportsbooks. The Ravens are 5-0 ATS as road underdogs in their last five which might explain that. Well that and looking absolutely dominant in their first two games. This is a tough call which is why we teased KC down so they just need to hold serve at home and come up with the win. Until someone proves they can slow down the Chiefs we’ll keep rolling with them. We’ll probably learn more after this game than any other this week after we see this result. This should be a fun one.
Yanni’s Pick – Chiefs -6 (Chiefs 33, Ravens 25)
JJ’s Pick – Chiefs -6 (Chiefs 28, Ravens 20)
vs. 
ATLANTA FALCONS (1-1) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (1-1)
Sunday – September 22nd – 1:00pm
Spread: Indianapolis Colts -1
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: Atlanta 54%
The Breakdown:
The BetCrushers originally had this one pegged as a Colts win and cover as they match up well against the Falcons, are playing at home and own nearly every key trend indicator. We ultimately decided not to post a play on this one for the simple fact that the Colts are just too banged up at key positions. Will Atlanta be able to stay focused coming off that big prime time win last week or can Indianapolis overcome the continued roster challenges to get the home win?
There were certainly good intentions by the Falcons in getting Matt Ryan some help on the offensive line in the offseason through the draft. We mentioned the Colts injuries, and the Falcons were hit hard on their own O-line last weekend. Most teams would be thrilled to have Atlanta’s skill players including Matt Ryan at QB, but this team just can’t seem to get it together with it’s big guys up front. That ultimately reduces the effectiveness of these players, particularly Devonta Freeman and back up Ito Smith. The Dirty Birds have not been able to get anything going on the ground or protect Ryan enough to let him get his trio of receivers making enough big plays. We initially figured that would be the case again this week until the confirmation that Darius Leonard will be out due to a concussion sustained last Sunday. Jaabal Sheard is also out which effects both the pass rush and depth on the defensive line. If Freeman is ever going to get things going here would be a great time to start.
The Colts have potential issues on the offensive side of the ball as well as Marlon Mack and T.Y. Hilton, their two most important weapons are both hobbled and questionable for this one. It looks as though Hilton should be able to give it a go, while Mack is a game-time decision. The Colts have the advantage in the trenches on this side of the ball as well which helps, but with their stars ailing it could impact their ability to move the ball. Jacoby Brissett has played well enough to win games and this is a spot where he could have a nice game at home. It seems crazy to say, but this game may be really tight at the end, and Adam Vinatieri is the unsure piece of the equation. If the Colts need a late kick from the future Hall of Famer, can they count on him?
NUGGET: The Falcons are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games against the AFC. WOW. If it weren’t for the injuries we’d be all over the Colts on this one. They should still find a way to win this one in a game that most likely will stay under the total.
Yanni’s Pick – Colts -1 (Colts 23, Falcons 20)
JJ’s Pick – Colts -1 (Colts 20, Falcons 17)
vs. 
DENVER BRONCOS (0-2) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (2-0)
Sunday – September 22nd – 1:00pm
Spread: Green Bay Packers -7
Over/Under: 43
Public Money Percentage: Green Bay 59%
The Breakdown:
We broke down a game with the Raiders/Vikings above and this game is basically a carbon copy. An AFC West team that’s not great on the road travels to an NFC North team that’s much better at home. This game favors Green Bay pretty much across the board, but is it enough for them get the win against the spread?
What a crazy ending in the Broncos and Bears game last week. Vic Fangio had his first win right there for the taking but some questionable defense on the final drive cost them the victory and pushed them to an 0-2 start. Next up is a trip to Lambeau Field where Denver is staring at a possible 0-3 start if they can’t find a way to pull off the upset. Joe Flacco will try to put some points on the board against an improved Green Bay defense, and he will have to do it with a running game that hasn’t been able to get moving yet. The offensive line has been especially disappointing this season with Garrett Bolles leading the NFL in holding penalties and being routinely beaten when not holding. Any chance of some Denver offensive improvement is going to have to start with the offensive line. The Packers secondary has looked sharp in their first two games so it’s hard to picture Emmanuel Sanders and Cortland Sutton being able to get a lot going in this one.
The Packers have struggled a bit with getting their ground game going as well which will be a focal point for them against Denver. Aaron Jones is in line for a big game against this Denver defense which is much more equipped to play with the lead and rush the passer. Speaking of the pass rush for the Broncos, we all know that Von Miller and Bradley Chubb are the keys to their success. The big problem for the Broncos in this one is Aaron Rodgers has the highest quarterback rating against the blitz in the entire league over the previous 7 seasons. Even if Miller and Chubb can get some pressure, Rodgers shouldn’t have much trouble at home finding single coverage and check downs.
This is a tough one to bet against the spread as Green Bay should win this game easily. That being said, seven points is a lot for a desperate team that’s essentially playing for their season. A great option is to tease the Packers and the under in this one. We’re going to take the Broncos more for the key number than anything, but we’re not playing this one straight up.
Yanni’s Pick – Broncos +7 (Packers 23, Broncos 20)
JJ’s Pick – Broncos +7 (Packers 20, Broncos 16)
vs. 
MIAMI DOLPHINS (0-2) at DALLAS COWBOYS (2-0)
Sunday – September 22nd – 1:00pm
Spread: Dallas Cowboys -22.5
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: Dallas 69%
The Breakdown:
For years it was understood that any spreads 14 points and higher were meant for taking the underdog. Over the past five seasons that logic has been completely reversed as it’s apparent that the gap between the top of the league and the bottom has stretched itself from the parity of the early part of the decade. Miami goes on the road against a red hot Dallas team in search of not being embarrassed for a third week in a row.
We’re not going to waste a lot of your time or ours with an extensive breakdown in this one because we all know who is coming away with the win here. Josh Rosen gets the start in what is likely an audition for his future in Miami, and possibly in the league. It’s a really rough spot for him to be in as the offensive line is going to be overmatched again in this one. The Fins’ have had no running game to speak of and their weapons aren’t going to scare anyone. The scary part is that they actually may be a little better offensively than they are on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas is going to score and score often in this game. Dak Prescott wants that new contract so even with Michael Gallup injured look for him to spread the ball around and hit some big plays. Ezekiel Elliott is going to have no issues racking up yards and will probably get some rest in the second half. There is not a spot in this game where the Cowboys don’t have an enormous edge.
If you think laying 22.5 points is crazy, try taking points with the Dolphins… If you’re fiending to play this game, lay the points with Dallas. It’s hard to picture any possible scenario in which the Dolphins can keep this within four touchdowns.
Yanni’s Pick – Cowboys -22.5 (Cowboys 40, Dolphins 7)
JJ’s Pick – Cowboys -22.5 (Cowboys 34, Dolphins 10)
vs. 
NEW YORK GIANTS (0-2) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (1-1)
Sunday – September 22nd – 4:05pm
Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5
Over/Under: 48
Public Money Percentage: Tampa Bay 53%
The Breakdown:
The Giants and Buccaneers is another game that we wanted to get in on when the lines opened at 7 and 7.5 that has since moved down to 6.5. New York didn’t waste much time transitioning the team from Eli Manning to rookie Daniel Jones after a rough 0-2 start. In fairness to Eli, he didn’t have a lot to work with in those games as their receiving corp was pretty depleted. Jones will make his debut against a Tampa defense that has played much better this season under first year head coach Bruce Arians and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles.
It’s always a bit of a shot in the dark when you’re looking to see how a rookie quarterback is going to perform and this is no exception. If you want to gauge what Jones did in the preseason then you’ll have high expectations for the Giants in this one. One plus is he’ll have their number one wideout Sterling Shepherd back from injury which should help the cause. Another plus is Evan Engram is really coming into his own at the tight end position. This Bucs team struggled defending Greg Olsen a week ago so it’s very possible that Engram could have a big game here as we know young QBs love that security blanket at tight end. And of course Saquon Barkley continues to show that he’s the best running back in the league keeping the Giants from being a complete mess offensively.
For Tampa, we know the routine: This team wins and loses with quarterback Jameis Winston. The challenge with betting Tampa Bay games is can we ever be completely sure which Winston will show up? If you’re a Bucs fan it’s nice that they’re playing a Giants defense that has been completely outperformed so far this season. The Giants pass rush is non-existent allowing receivers so much time to get open that it’s almost been easy for the opposing quarterbacks. Both Dak Prescott and Josh Allen looked very comfortable and and at ease in the pocket. Winston has proven in his career that when he has time he can make the throws. Mike Evans should get things going this week and Chris Godwin should continue to stay hot. Coming off of a goose egg performance, O.J. Howard should rebound in this game as well.
Assuming the “good” Jameis Winston shows up the Bucs shouldn’t have much trouble putting points on the board. The question mark in this one is how much impact with Daniel Jones have on the Giants offense? We’re thinking he’ll be able to keep his team in the game or possibly find a late score for a back door cover here. Best of luck if you’re betting this one, we’re going to observe Jones a little bit before we go any further with this Giant team.
Yanni’s Pick – Giants +6.5 (Buccaneers 28, Giants 24)
JJ’s Pick – Giants +6.5 (Buccaneers 20, Giants 14)
vs. 
CAROLINA PANTHERS (0-2) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (0-1-1)
Sunday – September 22nd – 4:05pm
Spread: Arizona Cardinals -2
Over/Under: 45
Public Money Percentage: Arizona 55%
The Breakdown:
Carolina travels to Arizona without Cam Newton in a game that is basically a must-win to avoid starting 0-3. While this game is certainly in question, the status of Newton’s health and career seem like bigger items of concern at this point in time for the Panthers organization. The Cardinals on the other hand will be looking for their first win of the season and are excited about this matchup and their opportunities.
The Carolina Panthers had big hopes for this season as they anticipated a healthy Cam Newton paired with Christian McCaffrey would lead to a tough to defend offense. With Newton not suiting up this week they’ll turn to second year man Kyle Allen to lead the offense. Allen got some playing time a year ago playing well in some spot duty when the Panthers shut Newton down. With as poorly as what we can only assume is an injured Cam Newtown had been playing you’ve got to wonder if this might actually be an upgrade at the moment? Look for a lot of Christian McCaffrey here to give Allen some protection, although the Cardinals have been pretty stout against the run in two contests. Greg Olsen is coming off a 100+ yard game against Tampa, and could end up being the most important weapon in this one as Arizona has gotten torched by opposing tight ends. Olsen is hampered by a bad back so keep an eye on his status closer to game time.
Kyler Murray has been a complete shot in the arm for the Arizona Cardinals and their fans. He’s already begun flashing signs of what made him the number one pick in the draft. Even with Luke Keuchly anchoring the middle of the Panthers defense, they have been very soft against the run. With Murray’s dual threat abilities and David Johnson in the backfield the Cardinals should be able to establish some work on the ground. Larry Fitzgerald looks as good as any receiver in the league through two games and he should do some solid work in this game primarily out of the slot. We often see some more defensive type games when a back up quarterback is inserted, but don’t count on that in this contest.
Can the Panthers rally around Kyle Allen and keep their season from becoming completely derailed? There are a lot of question marks in this game and we don’t really like the “unknowns” so we’ll roll with the home team here just for fun and see what happens.
Yanni’s Pick – Cardinals -2 (Cardinals 27, Panthers 21)
JJ’s Pick – Cardinals -2 (Cardinals 23, Panthers 19)
vs. 
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2-0) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (0-2)
Sunday – September 22nd – 4:25pm
Spread: San Francisco 49ers -6.5
Over/Under: 44
Public Money Percentage: San Francisco 54%
The Breakdown:
The late games on Sunday feature a lot of backup quarterbacks and here the Steelers begin the rest of their 2019 campaign with Mason Rudolph leading the charge. They’ll travel to the west coast to take on a hot and much improved 49er team looking for their first 3-0 start since their last Super Bowl season. Rudolph performed admirably off the bench for the injured Ben Roethlisberger last week but wasn’t able to pull out the victory.
The Steeler fanbase is without question some of the most obnoxious fans around the country, yet also some of the most knowledgeable. They entered this season with Super Bowl aspirations, and if you bought into the rhetoric that they were a better team without the distraction that is circus clown Antonio Brown, you could make a case that they would be able to make a playoff run. How quickly things can change in the NFL. The Steelers did not play well with their veteran quarterback and now will be relying on Rudolph to take on a San Francisco team that has been playing lights out on defense. The Steeler offensive line, which is one of the better units in the league, will have to hold up against the 49er defensive line for this to be any kind of game at all. The Steelers will most likely look to a quick and short passing game to move the ball and protect Rudolph. Vance McDonald came alive last week and will likely get a lot of looks in this game as well. It’s not so much that Mason Rudolph will struggle to get points on the board as much as it is that this 49er defense is legit.
San Francisco has been pretty impressively offensively as well as they shredded a weak Cincinnati defense in week two. They’ll have their own challenges in this one as you can expect a desperation effort from a very capable Steelers defense. Pittsburgh hasn’t been nearly as dominant defensively as they have the potential to be, so let’s see if they can put it together when they need it the most. Jimmy Garroppolo has been efficiently productive and has not had to do much yet this season as the Niners have run the ball very well. The Steelers should be able to hold down Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert which will put some pressure on Jimmy G to make some plays.
As was mentioned earlier, teams generally rally around back up quarterbacks, but we’ll pass on going all in on the Steelers despite the nice point spread. Our lean goes to the black and yellow in a defensive game that may have an under play in it.
Yanni’s Pick – Steelers +6.5 (49er 20, Steelers 17)
JJ’s Pick – Steelers +6.5 (49ers 24, Steelers 20)
vs. 
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (1-1) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (2-0)
Sunday – September 22nd – 4:25pm
Spread: Seattle Seahawks -4.5
Over/Under: 45
Public Money Percentage: Seattle 63%
The Breakdown:
Has any team had more bad luck in the past 9 months than the New Orleans Saints? As if the bad calls weren’t enough, a true injury to insult was added when Drew Brees was knocked out of last week’s game against the Rams and will be out of action for six weeks. The Saints will hitch their wagon to Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill during that stretch and start by traveling to one of the toughest places in the league to play.
For almost any team in the NFL, losing their starting QB is a big blow. For a team like the Saints it’s even bigger as Drew Brees means so much to that offense and team. The Saints are fortunate in the fact that they have some better options to fill in than most of the teams in the league. Head coach Sean Payton has stated that Teddy Bridgewater and utility weapon Taysom Hill will each get work at quarterback in an effort to keep the Seahawks preparing. Seattle’s pass defense has not played well early this season so you have to think that missing Brees in this contest is even bigger. Can Bridgewater make the throws needed to attack that defense and get points on the board? Sean Payton is one of the craftier game planners out there and he really has a chance to shine and earn his money in this game. He has to find ways to get Alvin Kamara involved in the passing game and the Saints have to take care of the ball to keep this one close. It’ll be interesting to watch what kind of role Taysom Hill plays in this game both at the QB position and in other formations.
For the Seahawks we already know the game plan. Try to make some plays here and there and keep it close so Russell Wilson can win it in the fourth quarter. This New Orleans defense is fast and will look to contain Wilson and the passing game. Chris Carson could be in line for a hefty workload here and should have some success against a thin Saints defensive front. We know that Seattle has a massive home field advantage and they have been known to blow out bad teams at Centurylink Stadium, however don’t expect a blowout in this one. If you’re trying to preview this movie, you may find an ending where Russell Wilson and the Seahawks claw their way to a close victory against a very determined Saints squad.
Laying 4.5 points at home with the Seahawks seems like a pretty smart play against Teddy Bridgewater. Did you know the Saints haven’t covered against the spread going back to last season in seven straight contests? Obviously that means you should load up on the Seahawks at home, right? Well, you certainly can, but if you want our advice we’re thinking the Saints keep this one competitive and sneak out a cover.
Yanni’s Pick – Saints +4.5 (Seahawks 23, Saints 19)
JJ’s Pick – Saints +4.5 (Seahawks 21, Saints 20)
vs. 
HOUSTON TEXANS (1-1) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (1-1)
Sunday – September 22nd – 4:25pm
Spread: Los Angeles Chargers -3
Over/Under: 47.5
Public Money Percentage: Houston 59%
The Breakdown:
Finally we get to a late afternoon game with two healthy starting quarterbacks lining up for each team as Houston hits the west coast to take on the Chargers. Both teams are looking to pick up a key win in what could have wild card implications down the road.
The Texans are coming off a wild finish at home holding off the Jaguars 2 point conversion attempt to earn their first win of the season. A win is a win in the National Football League and the Texans certainly didn’t play poorly, but they looked very out of rhythm during that game. A bright spot has been their newcomer at running back Carlos Hyde who has looked good in early work. The Chargers have been dinged by the run and this is an area the Texans will look to exploit. DeAndre Hopkins has gotten off to a slow start and it won’t get any easier for him as he figures to draw the underrated Casey Hayward in coverage. Deshaun Watson will need to find other receivers and take some shots down the field to loosen up that defense. Will Fuller is always a little hit or miss in this offense, but he should be in line for a big game in this one.
Speaking of out of rhythm something just doesn’t seem right with the Chargers. A season ago it seemed like they finally pieced the intangibles together to become a winning team, yet this year it’s like they’re reverting back to their old ways. They’re missing some key pieces due to injury so we’ll give them a pass there, but they just seem a little “off” overall. Is a home game what they need to get things on track? Austin Ekeler has been superb filling in for Melvin Gordon, and has also cost Gordon any leverage he may have had as the Bolts’ certainly aren’t going to be begging for his services now. Ekeler will have his work cut out for him against this Texans defense that has been solid against the run. Philip Rivers has made some plays and continues to feed Keenan Allen, but the explosiveness we saw more frequently in 2018 hasn’t really been there yet in the passing game this year. The Texans in recent years have struggled on the road against the pass so this again could be the time for Rivers and his troops to get some things going.
We’re going to go with the Texans in this matchup more for the number of getting the three points than anything else. Most likely the Chargers will come away with a close win here, but if you want to take a chance at the Texans on the moneyline you can get up to +150 for a team that has a legitimate chance at pulling the upset.
Yanni’s Pick – Texans +3 (Texans 23, Chargers 20)
JJ’s Pick – Texans +3 (Chargers 24, Texans 23)
vs. 
LOS ANGELES RAMS (0-0) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (0-0)
Monday – September 22nd – 8:25pm
Spread: Los Angeles Rams -3
Over/Under: 49
Public Money Percentage: Los Angeles 74%
The Breakdown:
A pair of Super Bowl hopefuls square off in a cross-country AFC/NFC contest in the prime time Sunday Night game. Each team is coming off of an important win against teams playing with backup quarterbacks. The Rams opened as field goal favorites and the line hasn’t moved much despite the fact that heavy early money has come in on them. The stars will be out in this one and while the winner will leave with some good momentum, the loser could leave pretty deflated, particularly if it is the home team.
The Rams have looked good so far this season on offense, if not quite as explosive as a year ago. Todd Gurley has made his presence felt when needed and Cooper Kupp has come roaring back from his knee injury to lead their talented trio of receivers. Jared Goff has played just well enough to move the chains when needed and get points on the board. You’ve got to think that Sean McVay would like to find some more of the explosive plays they had in 2018, particularly getting the ball down the field to Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. The biggest reason for the Rams decrease in chunk plays seems to be due to very average play by the offensive line. Goff has felt pressure at times and needed to check down to the tight ends and Kupp more than they’d like. If you caught last weeks Browns game, Myles Garrett has to be salivating at a chance to attack this line. Garrett has been absolutely dominant through two games and is on a mission to establish himself as a defensive MVP candidate. The Browns secondary has played ok thus far, and are clearly reliant on a good pass rush.
Offensively, minus a highlight 89-yard touchdown from Odell Beckham, Jr., the Browns haven’t been able to consistently keep drives going. On Monday night their young tight end David Njoku broke his wrist which could slow them down even more. With his athleticism out of the lineup in the middle the Rams can focus more closely on OBJ. Even more than the Rams, the Browns have really struggled on the offensive line. When you look at their talent at the skill positions you’d assume the Browns would be able to score at will. Their inability to get the running game and Nick Chubb going have slowed down the progress of Baker Mayfield as he looks to build that rapport with his receivers. Much like Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald and Dante Fowler, Jr. should and most likely will have a big impact on this game. (It’s pretty rare that Donald doesn’t have a big impact). Look for the Browns to put an emphasis on getting Chubb and the running game going in the first quarter to slow down the Rams pass rush.
The final piece to this game could be the intangibles of coaching, experience, and special teams. Freddie Kitchens looks a little unsure on the sidelines so the Rams should have the advantage as well as a few extra hours of prep time for this one. Los Angeles played in the Super Bowl a year ago and should be pretty comfortable in the spotlight. Cleveland should be ok there too coming off their Monday night win. The Rams continue to have some of the best special teams in the league which generally gives them at least a slight advantage every week.
This has the makings of a pretty competitive Sunday Night game and will be a good test to see if the Browns have truly arrived on the scene. There is certainly a lot of potential firepower on display for this one, but there is also some big time defensive players as well. The Rams have a tough trip across the county and will be eager to show they can rebound in prime time. Laying the points with LA is an option but the public money is pouring in on the Rams which is enough for us to stay away on that bet. We’re instead going to overcome the fear of betting an under with so much sizzle in the game.
Yanni’s Pick – Rams -3 (Rams 24, Browns 20)
JJ’s Pick – Rams -3 (Rams 27, Browns 21)
vs. 
CHICAGO BEARS (0-0) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (0-0)
Monday – September 23rd – 8:15pm
Spread: Chicago Bears -4
Over/Under: 41.5
Public Money Percentage: Chicago 58%
The Breakdown:
The NFL is not doing itself too many favors with some of the early prime-time games they’re featuring and this one falls into that category as well. It’s good that they’re giving some teams who normally don’t get much run a shot at the spotlight and we can’t have the Chiefs and Rams in every night cap. With that, the Monday night game isn’t exactly a ratings draw. Two teams that have struggled for the most part take the field looking to get some momentum and get their seasons going in the right direction.
If you look strictly at the numbers you would have to give Washington a really solid chance to cover this game and possibly even pull off a bit of an upset to win outright. They’re playing at home, their offense is ranked in the top 10 after 2 games, and they have dominated the Bears over the past decade. Throw in the fact that nearly 60% of the public money is on visitor and the facts may convince you a play on the Redskins makes a lot of sense. Peeling back the layers tells a vastly different story that we want to share. That top 10 offensive ranking is the epitome of garbage yards and statistics. Other than a couple of early long strikes against the Eagles to start the season this group has really struggled to move the ball except in garbage time. Derrius Guice is sadly on the shelf again meaning the Skins’ will turn to the legend they basically insulted in Adrian Peterson in hopes of getting the offense going. Peterson will fight as hard as anyone in the game and you have to admire his toughness, but it’s hard to picture him getting over on the vaunted Chicago defense. Although Terry McLaurin has provided a glimpse of hope for the receiving corp, quarterback Case Keenum has a lack of proven players to throw the ball too against a pass rush that will be after him early and often.
The Bears on offense have not been impressive in their first two games either, although they have to feel a little bit good in the fact that they seem to have solved their kicking woes. There is some mild panic, or outright huge concern depending on who you listen to in the Bear’s camp regarding quarterback Mitch Trubisky. He seems to have regressed from a promising season ago and this team has suddenly morphed into a defense only group. We had a feeling that Trubisky wasn’t as good as he seemed finishing out last year and thought a lot of the scoring was due to the absorbent amount of turnovers that were created. As good as the Bears defense is, they need a little help from their teammates on the other side of the ball. If there were ever a time for Trubisky to have a “get-right” game it’s against this Washington defense that has been sliced and shredded in both of their games this season. You don’t want to make too much out of one game, but if Trubisky can’t get it going in this one, you may hear a collective groan from this city of Chicago. What would really help him out is if their running back trio can get some big plays and keep the chains moving on the ground. For what it’s worth, we’re thinking that three’s a crowd in the backfield and none of these guys are able to get into any kind of rhythm. Again, this could be a great game to turn the tide for these running backs as only the Dolphins have allowed more yards on the ground than the Redskins.
There are a dozen trends and indicators for this game that all seem relatively irrelevant to anything going on. Washington has covered against the Bears in their previous 5 meetings which is slightly worrisome, however this is a different Redskins team. The trends tell you this will be very low-scoring, however the total at 41 is just a little low. If you’re interested in playing the total, look to play the Redskins under 17.5 points. This game could be a little ugly and it may take the Bears a while to get a solid lead. We’re not going to put the Bears in the elite category by any stretch, however we will fade the Redskins as a team that’s not great on offense, defense or special teams with a very limited home-field advantage. This line should be closer to -6 or -7 in our evaluation so we’ll go against some trends and play the square road favorite bet for a hopeful winner.
