BETCRUSHERS PREVIOUS WEEKS RESULTS
Yanni – 6-8-2
JJ – 8-6-2
BETCRUSHERS SEASON RESULTS TO DATE
Yanni – 125-103-4
JJ – 117-119-4
PREVIOUS WEEK RECAP:
A pretty uneventful weekend as we hit on some games and missed on some others not making a ton of progress in either direction. JJ fared a little better as he was over .500 finishing at 8-6-2 while Yanni was a couple games under at 6-8-2 on the week. As we head into the final weekend of the NFL regular season we’re hoping to both finish strong although week 17 is always a little tricky with many games not having a whole lot of meaning to several teams. We certainly won’t be betting many as we prep for the playoffs, but a quick breakdown and selection leans for fun to wrap up our yearly contest is below.
vs. 
CLEVELAND BROWNS (6-9) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (1-14)
Sunday – December 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: Cleveland Browns -2.5
Over/Under: 44
Public Money Percentage: Cleveland 63%
The Breakdown:
The Bengals provided an awesome finish a week ago in a meaningless game (minus draft status), and they’ll look to do the same in their season finale against the Cleveland Browns. With all due respect to the Dallas Cowboys, the Browns have been perhaps the most disappointing team this season and they’ll limp across the finish line hoping to get a win against their in-state rivals.
It’s hard to point a finger at just one area of frustration for the Browns and their offense this season as they flat out haven’t gotten it done to the level that they needed to. It’s always possible in a game like this that a team with personalities as strong as the Browns mail it in and start planning their offseason to-do lists. We’re going to maybe foolishly give this team the benefit of the doubt that they’ll actually take an environment with little pressure as an opportunity to play loose and well in the last game of the season before potentially large changes will occur. You could make the case that the Browns have some matchup advantages against most teams in the league, but this is absolutely the case against the Cincinnati defense. One of the few bright spots for Cleveland this season has been the play of their running backs, Kareem Hunt, and the league leader in rushing, Nick Chubb. Chubb has played well all season long and with the rushing title there for the taking, he should put on a nice performance against a weak Bengals run defense. Hunt will also make the most of his opportunities as his hard running style will help wear down the linebackers for Cincy. When we see the final box score for this game, it’s not out of the question that the Browns could hit the 200 yard mark if they want to stay committed to the ground game. In the passing game, Baker Mayfield has to be excited to throw the ball on this team watching how Ryan Fitzpatrick absolutely carved them up just a week ago. Mayfield and Odell Beckham, Jr. have not been as electric as most people thought they would, however if Beckham puts an effort forth he’ll be able to make some plays in this ballgame.
For most of their game last week the Bengals offense was very disappointing, unable to sustain drives and put up points against a Dolphins defense that was allowing over 31 points per game. Their miraculous come from behind in the final 33 seconds and 16 points made things look a lot better on the scoreboard and in the stat sheet for Andy Dalton and company. The Bengals have some nice matchups of their own against a weakened Browns defense as Joe Mixon should have a nice game of his own. Mixon was surprisingly unable to make things happen in Miami, although it was mentioned that he was fighting a flu bug which would certainly explain that. Assuming Mixon does a capable job on the ground, things should line back up for Dalton as the Browns have been unable to generate consistent pressure without Myles Garrett in the lineup. Tyler Boyd was banged up a bit last week but he’s looking to finish what’s been a good personal season for himself in a positive manner. The Bengals offensive line has been better since the return of Cordy Glenn at left tackle so let’s keep an eye on which team wants it more in the trenches in a game that means not a whole lot.
KEY STATS: – The Browns are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against
AFC North opponents
– The Bengals are 1-6 SU in their last 7 home games
The BetCrushers will be the first to put a disclaimer on this wager and admit that betting on this game is not a move that most professionals would make. Will the Browns mail it in so Freddie Kitchens gets a quick pink slip after the game? Which team will have the bigger crowd showing up for the game? Will either coach be playing some younger players to evaluate talent or are each desperately searching for a win? These are all variables that paint a picture of staying far away from a wager here, but hey what fun is that? We’re willing to throw at least a bit of beer money, if not a full unit on this wager for the simple fact that these two teams are not currently close in talent/matchups.
Yanni’s Pick – Browns -2.5 (Browns 26, Bengals 20)
JJ’s Pick – Browns -2.5 (Browns 24, Bengals 20)
vs. 
MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-11) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-3)
Sunday – December 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: New England Patriots -16
Over/Under: 44.5
Public Money Percentage: New England 54%
The Breakdown:
In a mild surprise, the early money came in on the Miami Dolphins as the spread opened at 16.5 in a game New England needs to secure a first round bye in the playoffs. The Dolphins held on in OT to get a victory against the ferocious comeback attempt of the Cincinnati Bengals. The Dolphins have been fighting hard all season as head coach Brian Flores and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick refuse to let an undermanned team tank.
Fitzpatrick will continue to try to make things happen against the Patriots defense who has been tough in every game and is even tougher at home in December. With little to no running game to speak and Davante Parker drawing Stephon Gilmore in coverage it’s hard to see where offense is going to come from for Miami. The Patriots were able to get their offense going at an ideal time against a game Buffalo defense that is close, but just not quite there in the AFC East race. New England will likely lean on its running game as much as they can to protect Tom Brady and Julian Edelman for the playoff push. The Dolphins were actually pretty tough against Joe Mixon last week, but expect the running back trio in NE to get a lot of work on Sunday.
If this isn’t the most ironic statement, it seems crazy to pick against this Miami Dolphin team that is playing so hard and competitively when they’re getting 16 points. With New England’s offense also having some trouble scoring points, is 16 too much even for a home game in Foxboro?
Yanni’s Pick – Patriots -16 (Patriots 31, Dolphins 13)
JJ’s Pick – Dolphins +16 (Patriots 23, Dolphins 10)
vs. 
CHICAGO BEARS (7-8) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (10-5)
Sunday – December 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: Minnesota Vikings -1
Over/Under: 37
Public Money Percentage: Minnesota 68%
The Breakdown:
Coming off their disappointing home loss to the Packers which cost them a shot at the division, the Vikings wrap up their regular season with a mostly meaningless game against the Bears. With that poor performance in mind, head coach Mike Zimmer will likely want to try to build some positive momentum before their wild card playoff game. It will be an interesting balance for Zimmer though as with some banged up players on both sides of the ball, the Vikings could sure use some extra rest.
No one has paid close attention since their season basically wrapped up early, but the Bears have covered their last 4 games and have actually played better offensively, if not excellent. They’ll be looking to close out the season on a high note and there are likely a handful of players that will be being evaluated for future jobs. The Bears have their own injury woes although most of their missing starters are on the defensive side of the ball. With the unknown of how much the starters in Minnesota will be playing it really makes this game tough to handicap.
Between the Vikings recent disappointing play, mounting injuries and not really needing a win, it seems like the Bears would probably be the right side in this game. We’ll 100% be avoiding this game though as there just isn’t really enough to break down and know until the game is actually being played.
Yanni’s Pick – Bears +1 (Bears 24, Vikings 23)
JJ’s Pick – Vikings -1 (Vikings 23, Bears 17)
vs. 
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-10) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-4)
Sunday – December 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5
Over/Under: 44.5
Public Money Percentage: Kansas City 68%
The Breakdown:
At the beginning of the season this was a game many people had circled as what could have been a key decider in the AFC playoff race. While this game does have a little bit of impact for the Chiefs, the Chargers have long since been eliminated and are already looking ahead to the future.
Kansas City will be playing to win as they could potentially still get the number 2 seed in the AFC which would include a bye in the first round. They’d also need New England to lose however so head coach Andy Reid will be watching the scoreboard in addition to his own team. Other than some early injuries and having zero home games (figuratively), it’s hard to figure out why the Chargers have played so poorly this year. Philip Rivers has obviously struggled but the defense has as well. LA will try to attack what has been a suddenly really high performing defense. It’s not shocking that it’s taken the Chiefs a little while to gel together as defense but the mix of some of their core players along with newcomers Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu finally is looking the way the organization had hoped. Look for Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler to get a hefty workload as usual as the Chargers probably don’t want to straight drop Rivers against the KC pass rush. The Kansas City offense will take what it’s given and Patrick Mahomes will find whoever happens to be open with his skill players.
Normally, even an 8.5 spread would seem like something KC would cruise past at home in what could be an absolute blowout. That could very well still be the case. Bet this one at your own risk though as it wouldn’t be shocking for the Chiefs to sit Mahomes and their starters if it looks like New England is going to beat the Dolphins early. Can KC cover that spread if they’re QB and key players are only playing a half or so of football?
Yanni’s Pick – Chargers +8.5 (Chiefs 24, Chargers 21)
JJ’s Pick – Chiefs -8.5 (Chiefs 27, Chargers 17)
vs. 
NEW YORK JETS (6-9) at BUFFALO BILLS (10-5)
Sunday – December 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: Buffalo Bills -1
Over/Under: 36
Public Money Percentage: Buffalo 67%
The Breakdown:
Another one of these games where one team is eliminated from the playoffs (Jets) and the other (Bills) has very little to play for heading into the postseason. The Jets have struggled on the road although they have managed to turn their season into something more respectable than what it was at the mid-way point. With the spread at just -1 the public has loaded up on the Bills expecting a home win to close out the season.
Sam Darnold and the Jets offense has really picked things up as the combination of Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder have provided a boost on the outside to loosen things up a bit for Le’Veon Bell in the ground game. The Bills have relied on their defense to carry them and they’ll likely be in another low scoring game on Sunday. The Jets have quietly put together a solid season defensively as well despite playing a lot of younger and newer players on their roster. With the Bills always focused on establishing the run game and the Jets being a top 5 run defense this season it’ll be strength on strength.
This spread is indicative of the fact that Sean McDermott will probably be resting some starters and key players for this game including possibly playing backup Matt Barkley at quarterback. The Bills have some solid young depth so even if they do it could still be a close game that they’ll be trying to win, but again, how can you bet a game not knowing who is playing?
Yanni’s Pick – Jets +1 (Jets 19, Bills 17)
JJ’s Pick – Bills -1 (Bills 19, Jets 16)
vs. 
GREEN BAY PACKERS (12-3) at DETROIT LIONS (3-11-1)
Sunday – December 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: Green Bay Packers -12.5
Over/Under: 43
Public Money Percentage: Green Bay 58%
The Breakdown:
In one of the larger mismatches of the final weekend the Packers travel to Detroit to take on a Lions team that is crawling toward the finish line. Green Bay got their huge division clinching win last week but still wants to secure at least a first round bye with a win against the Lions, and some potential help in the Sunday night game.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense has struggled at times this year and more so in road contests before putting a good performance up against the Vikings. They’ll be on the road again in a place that Rodgers has historically not always played his best, but in this game he’ll be going against a defense that has been absolutely atrocious. Rodgers and Davante Adams connected repeatedly in the Minnesota game and they shouldn’t have too much trouble Sunday even with Darius Slay in the lineup. More troubling will probably be touchdown machine Aaron Jones who should continue to pile up yards and touchdowns in what should have been a Pro Bowl season. (We’re not fans of Zeke Elliott getting that nod this year). The Lions have big problems offensively with David Blough as he’s played like a third string quarterback since the first quarter of his first start on Thanksgiving. Missing a couple of key weapons at the skill positions only makes things tougher against the Packers pass rush.
With this being a divisional game, 12.5 seems like a whole lot of points for a team to be laying on the road. There’s just no way to justify betting the Lions at this point in time though even in a week 17 contest like this.
Yanni’s Pick – Packers -12.5 (Packers 31, Lions 17)
JJ’s Pick – Packers -12.5 (Packers 27, Lions 13)
vs. 
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (12-3) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (5-10)
Sunday – December 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: New Orleans Saints -13
Over/Under: 46
Public Money Percentage: New Orleans 61%
The Breakdown:
A near carbon copy of the Packers/Lions when the Saints, who are also still vying for a first round bye travel to the woeful Panthers, who like the Lions are also struggling to put a bow on a disastrous 2019 campaign. If you’re a Carolina fan, you can take some solace in knowing the future isn’t completely bleak, but in week 17 against a balanced and hungry Saints team, things could end up getting ugly.
The Saints had to feel a little relieved to finally see Alvin Kamara look like, well Alvin Kamara for the first time since early in the season. Sean Payton has to like that heading into the playoffs knowing that being balanced will be critical to the success that they want to have against the top teams in the NFC. Needing a win, there’ll be big doses of Kamara and Latavius Murray against the Panthers run defense that has been trampled week in and week out. It hasn’t been much better for them through the air so record-holder Michael Thomas should be extending his catch mark while Drew Brees tacks on his touchdown mark in contest with Tom Brady. For Carolina, they’ll obviously feature Christian McCaffrey as per usual, and that’s unfortunately the only practical threat that they’ll have as wide receiver D.J. Moore will likely miss the game. Moore had been one of the top receivers in the league over the past two months so rookie Will Grier, making his second start, will be pretty limited with what he is able to do.
Another divisional matchup that would seem one where you’d want to take a large spread like a +13 if you’re simply asking the question. There is zero chance we’d be on Carolina against this Saints team in a game that could mean a lot to New Orleans and very little to the Panthers. A mismatch on both sides of the ball should lead to a pretty lopsided score as a final.
Yanni’s Pick – Saints -13 (Saints 36, Panthers 17)
JJ’s Pick – Panthers +13 (Saints 27, Panthers 16)
vs. 
ATLANTA FALCONS (6-9) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (7-8)
Sunday – December 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1
Over/Under: 48
Public Money Percentage: Atlanta 51%
The Breakdown:
A pair of teams that started the season slowly but have picked things up in recent weeks in Tampa as the Falcons take on the Buccaneers. Both offenses and defenses have played well in recent weeks and this could be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend despite the fact it has no playoff ramifications.
In the absence of Calvin Ridley, Matt Ryan has been forced to target Julio Jones even more and all that’s done is helped them to victories and Jones to some ridiculously good stat lines. The Bucs continually stout run defense should slow down Devonta Freeman which means Ryan and Jones along with tight end Austin Hooper could be in for some more big plays. Jameis Winston continues to make big plays for both teams as he showcased last Saturday against the Texans with multiple interceptions and touchdowns, something he is now famous for. With his top two targets out again he’ll be leaning on his backup receivers again as TB sticks with their game plan of tossing it all around the field. Points should be plentiful as usual with these two teams as each continues to fight for their head coaches.
If Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were playing this line would likely be somewhere around -3 and there is a chance the Bucs’ would be able to really beat up on Atlanta. With neither available it’s pushed the line to -1 which is actually a good thing if you’re looking to back Tampa here. This will likely be a 60 minute football game, but Tampa is a slightly better team and playing slightly better ball than Atlanta at this point in the season.
Yanni’s Pick – Buccaneers -1 (Buccaneers 31, Falcons 27)
JJ’s Pick – Buccaneers -1 (Buccaneers 24, Falcons 20)
vs. 
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-7) at NEW YORK GIANTS (4-11)
Sunday – September 8th – 4:25pm
Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
Over/Under: 45
Public Money Percentage: Philadelphia 62%
The Breakdown:
It’s fitting that the NFC East race comes down to week 17 as someone has to win this division. The Eagles are in the driver’s seat and “simply” need to take care of the 4-11 Giants to secure being division champs and putting the nail in Jason Garrett’s coffin. The only problem is there is nothing the Giants would love more than spoiling their rivals fun and finishing the season with a 2 game winning streak.
Somehow Carson Wentz found a way to get enough points up against the Cowboys playing with basically a practice squad team of skill position players. He’ll need to do that again this week and could even be without Zach Ertz, although it sounds like he may give it a go despite a nasty rib injury. Jordan Howard should return from injury this week and the Eagles will need to lean on Miles Sanders and Howard to carry the offense on early downs and keep them in 3rd and manageable situations. The Giants have been torched through the air this season so the big key will be whether or not Wentz can connect with Greg Ward, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and what he hopes are his two tight ends with Ertz and Dallas Goedert. The Giants on the other hand enjoyed an offensive explosion last week behind the Saquon Barkley we expected to see this season combining for a ridiculous 279 scrimmage yards. The Eagles should be able to slow Barkley down in the running game but he could find a repeat of success catching the ball out of the backfield. And with his full compliment of wide receivers, rookie Daniel Jones will be looking to make some big plays. The Eagles much maligned secondary came up big against the Cowboys, can they do it again against the Giants?
The Eagles obviously have everything to play for, while the Giants just want to get to the offseason healthy and happy. It’s hard to know whether that dynamic favors the Eagles or the Giants however, particularly with the Giants coming off a fun and emotional win. The Giants are at home, healthier and playing freely… Could that spell trouble for the Eagles coming off of their huge win last week?
Yanni’s Pick – Giants +4.5 (Eagles 24, Giants 22)
JJ’s Pick – Giants +4.5 (Eagles 23, Giants 20)
vs. 
TENNESSEE TITANS (8-7) at HOUSTON TEXANS (10-5)
Sunday – December 29th – 4:25pm
Spread: Tennessee Titans -3.5
Over/Under: 45
Public Money Percentage: Houston 53%
The Breakdown:
An interesting dynamic as the Tennessee Titans have all of the pressure in a game they need to win to get into the playoffs, while the Texans may not play their key players despite what head coach Bill O’ Brien says. Can Ryan Tannehill get the Titans a victory with the help of the returning Derrick Henry or will the Texans potentially knock them out of the way opening the door for the Steelers or even Raiders to get into the playoffs?
With Derrick Henry back in the mix the Titans offense will look to push their way through the up and down Texans defense. After lighting the league on fire for a nice stretch quarterback Ryan Tannehill has quieted down a bit, even though he’s still playing at a pretty high level. The Titans will need both Henry and Tannehill to be at their best if they’re going to win this game and sneak into the playoffs. Head coach Mike Vrabel will want his big offensive line to try to push around the Texans defensive line that is anxiously awaiting the return of J.J. Watt. The Texans will look to be physical as well on offense and we can expect to see a lot of running back Carlos Hyde when they’re on offense. Deshaun Watson has looked very average over the last month of the season and the secret is out that this offense runs a lot more fluidly with Will Fuller at the wide receiver position. Although the Texans claim they’re playing their starters, it’s unlikely Fuller will give it a go as they’ll want to rest his oft-injured hamstring for the playoffs.
If Houston does play all its starters this will likely be a very close game from start to finish. These teams are obviously rivals and although the Texans would probably love to knock the Titans out of the playoffs, it’s hard to see Tennessee not being a lot more focused and determined for this game.
Yanni’s Pick – Titans -3.5 (Titans 31, Texans 24)
JJ’s Pick – Titans -3.5 (Titans 24, Texans 20)
vs. 
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-12) at DALLAS COWBOYS (7-8)
Sunday – December 29th – 4:25pm
Spread: Dallas Cowboys -11
Over/Under: 44.5
Public Money Percentage: Washington 55%
The Breakdown:
The disappointing season for the Dallas Cowboys has at least one game left against their longtime rival Washington Redskins in JerryWorld. Dallas lost it’s opportunity to control its own destiny with their loss to the Eagles so they’ll need to not only take care of the Redskins, but need some help from their other rivals in New York to make the playoffs.
The Redskins offense has heated up a little bit in recent weeks as some of their young players have joined Terry McLaurin as up and coming players in the league. When they played the Cowboys early in the season they were absolutely embarrassed so they’ll want a little redemption to close out the season and will undoubtedly want to knock Dallas from the playoffs. With the Skins’ taking wise precautions with Dwayne Haskins, Case Keenum will get the nod at quarterback, which actually helps the Redskins as he’s been steady when he’s played, despite a poor win and loss record. Adrian Peterson will have some tough sledding as he’s found for a lot of the year, but Keenum should find some success through the air against a very disappointing Dallas secondary. Offensively, the Cowboys should be able to run their offense through Ezekiel Elliott which is when they perform their best. Dak Prescott should also find some success in the comforts of his home stadium as his offense simply overmatches the Redskins defense.
When you look at this matchup there is zero reason the Cowboys shouldn’t win this game by 3 touchdowns, but well, we’ve said that about the Cowboys more than once this season. It’s hard to picture Dallas losing this game, although it wouldn’t be the craziest thing if that did happen. Let’s see how this team reacts to the pressure of needing a win, and how much they’ll be scoreboard watching the other two teams in the division.
Yanni’s Pick – Redskins +11 (Cowboys 33, Redskins 23)
JJ’s Pick – Redskins +11 (Cowboys 27, Redskins 17)
vs. 
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-7) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-2)
Sunday – December 29th – 4:25pm
Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -2
Over/Under: 37
Public Money Percentage: Baltimore 64%
The Breakdown:
The magic of the Steelers season seems to be fading fast as they’ve now found themselves in a situation where they need to win and need the Titans to lose to get into the playoffs. A date in Baltimore with the Ravens would seem like an impossible task, however they will fortunately get a lot of backup players including Robert Griffin III who will be taking the helm for likely MVP Lamar Jackson.
Pittsburgh has to turn back to Devlin Hodges at quarterback who had to come back in despite being benched a week ago due to a quick injury to Mason Rudolph. It’s tough to imagine Hodges having a lot of confidence, although he will at least be facing a defense that won’t be playing some key starters such as Earl Thomas and Marlon Humphrey. The other good thing Pittsburgh has going is Juju Smith-Schuster says he’s 100% so he’ll at least have a full arsenal of talent to try to get the ball to. The banged up Steelers offensive line will need to play well to try to keep this to a low scoring and grind it out type of game. John Harbaugh says he’s excited to see RGIII in action and thinks this offense can be pretty special with him leading the charge. We’ll have to see about that, but the strategically good thing about having him as the backup is the playbook remains pretty much fully intact. Mark Ingram and Mark Andrews are both sitting this one out so we’ll have to see if guys like Gus Edwards and Hayden Hurst can step in and make plays.
It would be really easy to fade this Steeler team with Duck Hodges at QB, but it’s really tough to want to bet on a slew of backup players playing in a game that means nothing. Pick your poison, a team that is playing for their playoff lives with a completely inept offense, or a talented team playing a lot of guys that don’t see the field a whole lot. Maybe the under is the best play here?
Yanni’s Pick – Steelers -2 (Steelers 17, Ravens 13)
JJ’s Pick – Ravens +2 (Ravens 20, Steelers 19)
vs. 
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (7-8) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (5-10)
Sunday – December 29th – 4:25pm
Spread: Indianapolis Colts -3.5
Over/Under: 43
Public Money Percentage: Indianapolis 70%
The Breakdown:
The Colts travel to Jacksonville as these AFC South foes tangle in a game where both teams are likely already looking ahead to vacation plans. The Colts played tough this year but simply had too many odds stacked against them and couldn’t make the key plays when needed. Jacksonville on the other hand has been a mess and this will likely be the last game for several members of the coaching staff and players.
Head coach Frank Reich has stayed committed to Jacoby Brissett as his franchise quarterback since the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck and Brissett has played what could be best categorized as average football. He’s struggled much more on the road which is the only reason why you wouldn’t want to wager on the Colts in this game. Marlon Mack will actually be the key driver in this game as the Jaguars have not been able to stop anyone running the football over the last six weeks allowing the most yardage in that span. The Jaguars have struggled mightily offensively during that span as well as Minshew Mania has grinded to a halt outside of some key plays most notably against the Raiders. Leonard Fournette has continued to be one of the few bright spots for this team but he could struggle finding room against the Colts who have been solid stopping the run this year. Gardner Minshew will need to make some plays down the field to get the Jags enough points to win this game. The return of D.J. Chark at wide receiver should help that cause at least.
If this game were in Indianapolis it would seem like a no-brainer to load up on the Colts to run the Jaguars out of the building. Attendance will be sparse for the Jags’ but this has the feel of a game where both teams just want to get to the offseason. Frank Reich should find a way to get his team motivated enough and be able to outcoach Doug Marrone so gun to the head, you’d have to take the Colts if you’re betting this one, at least we think?
Yanni’s Pick – Colts -3.5 (Colts 23, Jaguars 17)
JJ’s Pick – Colts -3.5 (Colts 24, Jaguars 18)
vs. 
OAKLAND RAIDERS (7-8) at DENVER BRONCOS (6-9)
Sunday – December 29th – 4:25pm
Spread: Denver Broncos -3.5
Over/Under: 41
Public Money Percentage: Oakland 61%
The Breakdown:
The Raiders play their final game as “Oakland” when they travel to rival Denver to take on the Drew Lock led Broncos. Technically Oakland is still alive as they had needed 9 things to happen a week ago and have gotten through the first five. It’s still a longshot, but not impossible that if they can win this game that they could get enough help to squeeze into the playoffs unexpectedly, which would be mildly crazy.
The Raiders put together a really nice performance last week and they have to be kicking themselves for blowing the game against the Jaguars two weeks ago as they’d have a really legitimate chance to be in the playoff mix. Their offense will need to put together another good performance against the underrated Denver defense in what will be a chilly Mile High environment. Derek Carr has had some good games and some bad games against the Broncos but will need to be on point and most importantly take care of the ball here. The Raiders big offensive line will need to establish their dominance against a depleted front seven of the Broncos and look to get Josh Jacobs and the running game moving. The Broncos on the other hand will be looking to see continuous improvement from rookie Drew Lock as John Elway and the organization are hoping he is the answer at the position for the future. As has been the case for Denver all year, the two things they need to have happen to secure a win are to get off to a fast start, and get the running game going. If they can do that, they can hold serve at home and spoil any slight chance the Raiders have of the playoffs.
Oakland is a tough team to handicap as they look like a playoff team at times, and look like a bottom feeder at others. That would explain why they’re on the cusp of the playoffs but not really there yet. Gut feeling on this one says that Denver is going to get it done in this one, but in a game like this it seems to make more sense to take the points and see what happens. Good luck to you if you feel like you want to bet on this one.
Yanni’s Pick – Raiders +3.5 (Broncos 22, Raiders 20)
JJ’s Pick – Broncos -3.5 (Broncos 21, Raiders 17)
vs. 
ARIZONA CARDINALS (5-9-1) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (8-7)
Sunday – December 29th – 4:25m
Spread: Los Angeles Rams -7.5 (K. Murray Status)
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: – off the board
The Breakdown:
Yanni’s Pick – No Pick
JJ’s Pick – No Pick
vs. 
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (12-3) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (11-4)
Sunday – December 29th – 8:20pm
Spread: San Francisco 49ers -3
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: San Francisco 59%
The Breakdown:
Just in case you weren’t sure about the importance of the game between the 49ers and Seahawks it’s been flexed to Sunday Night Football with seeding implications abound. San Francisco is coming off of a tough rebounding win against the Rams, while the Seahawks are in a bit of a downward spiral losing at home to the Cardinals and suffering some big injuries along the way. The winner of this one will be playing a home playoff game and possibly enjoying a bye week, while the loser will go on the road in the wild card round.
The 49ers have looked a little different the last few weeks as they’ve been involved in some tight shootouts with the offense looking a little shaky at times. If you’re looking for good news it’s that no matter who they have lined up at running back they’ve had pretty good success moving the ball on the ground. It looks like Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostart will be carrying the load into the playoffs as Matt Breida’s fumbling issues have taken him out of the rotation. Seattle was scorched by the suddenly red-hot Kenyan Drake so you know that Kyle Shanahan will be committed to running the football and look to overpower a struggling Seahawk defensive group. The Hawks’ do get a boost on their defensive line as Jadeveon Clowney is set to return from the core injury that sidelined him the past two weeks. Clowney is an obvious key for this team so they should be improved both against the run and the pass as he’s played well in the biggest games this year. Overall the 49ers should be able to control the line of scrimmage (on both sides of the ball) so it will take some big plays out of the Seattle secondary to slow down San Francisco on Sunday. The Niners’ passing game has gotten a little one dimensional with the return of George Kittle, and while that isn’t a bad thing, it would probably bode well for them to get Emmanuel Sanders and their receivers a little more involved. The most obvious part of this game still goes back to the SF offensive line and their ability to control the trenches.
The big news this week for Seattle is the return of Marshawn Lynch as he’s signed with the team he spent his best years with to relieve the fact that they are down the top three backs on their depth chart. Lynch has apparently been training for the past month and claims he’s ready to go, but you have to wonder just how much he’ll be able to give them this first week back? Steve Young brought up a good point on Monday Night Countdown when he stated that “Beast Mode” may give the team a spark more mentally than physically. Seattle needs as much of a spark as they can get and they’ll hope that between Lynch and the 12th Man homefield that it can give them the boost they need. The amazing thing is how little homefield advantage has help the Hawks’ this year as they have been pushed around in their own building, by inferior competition. A team that used to have perhaps the biggest advantage with the 12th Man, is suddenly and inexplicably just another team at CenturyLink Field. The cupboard isn’t completely bare though as they still have magician Russell Wilson leading the offense. Wilson struggled last week as his running game was at a standstill and he couldn’t get on the same page with his receivers for much of the game. He’s been one of the best ever at not having back to back poor performances so he’ll likely bounce back on the national stage Sunday evening. And while he’ll likely try to carry the load for his team, the odds are going to be stacked against him just a little too much against a 49er team looking to get back to their dominant defensive roots. Over the first half of the season Wilson was locked in (no pun intended) with wide receiver Tyler Lockett who was having a Pro Bowl type season. Lately however, Lockett has been a near non-factor in the passing game. With Josh Gordon no longer on the roster Lockett and rookie D.K. Metcalf are really a two man show when it comes to making plays on the outside and down the field. There’s another area of concern in Seattle as left tackle Duane Brown left last week’s game as well and the extent of his injury is still under evaluation. If there is any team in the league you don’t want to be down your key offensive linemen it’s the San Francisco 49ers. Nick Bosa has been a little quieter in recent weeks but this game could line up for him to make a really big statement.
KEY STATS: – The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against
an NFC West opponent
– The 49ers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 road games
Laying points on the road against a good opponent is not the best long-term strategy for building your bankroll betting. Certain instances where you can find matchups that give you a distinct advantage are out there for the occasional taking even if the public and “square bettors” are also on them. This sure seems like one of those times as pretty much anything you can find in this matchup favors the visiting 49ers. (Yes, Russell Wilson is a better quarterback than Jimmy Garrapolo). We booked this one early for even money at -3. We’re putting this play out there at -3 as that is still available on several books, although some have moved it to -3.5. Russell Wilson should be able to make this game somewhat competitive, but when it’s all said and done the 49ers will be too strong on both sides of the ball and should get this victory by more than the key field goal number.
