BETCRUSHERS PREVIOUS WEEKS RESULTS
Yanni – 8-5
JJ – 7-6
BETCRUSHERS SEASON RESULTS TO DAT
Yanni – 78-68-1
JJ – 73-73-1
PREVIOUS WEEK RECAP
A modest gain for the BetCrushers overall Yanni and JJ both finished in the positive, ever so slightly as Yanni finished a game ahead having the Seahawks on Monday Night Football while JJ was on the 49ers. There was a big swing and a miss on the Bengals as they were completely blown out, and the Giants inability to play defense or get Saquon Barkley going cost us both covers. There was a split on several games, but the win/losses fell nearly even leading up to the Monday game. Overall, it hasn’t been a home run, yet picking up a game or two a week throughout the season can lead to a great mark at the end of the day which is exactly what we’re striving for.
vs. 
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-4) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-6)
Thursday – November 14th – 8:20pm
Spread: Cleveland Browns -2.5
Over/Under: 40.5
Public Money Percentage: Pittsburgh 59%
The Breakdown:
A game that seemed like it would be a dud just a couple of weeks ago suddenly could be very important for the winner of the Thursday Night Football game when the Steelers travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns. Both teams are coming off of last minute wins as beneficiaries of poor field goal kicking by their opposition. While the Ravens have been impressive recently, these teams aren’t out of contention in the AFC North or in the wild card hunt and will be looking to make a statement on national TV.
Everyone outside of the massive Pittsburgh fan base counted the Steelers out when they lost quarterback Ben Roethlisberger at the beginning of the season. Mike Tomlin has rallied his troops and they’re playing scrappy and opportunistic defense and getting just enough out of the offense to not only be competitive but string together some wins. The offense will face a Cleveland defense that has played pretty good football the last month minus allowing a few big plays. Backup quarterback Mason Rudolph will need to play smart football and his complimentary receivers have to make plays for them to win this game. Juju Smith-Schuster will continue to see heavy coverage and the Browns will be putting pressure from the edge which could result in some bad negative plays if Rudolph isn’t careful with the football. Pittsburgh is still looking to be a run first team and they’ll have the luxury of having starting running back James Conner back in the lineup just in time to face a Browns defense that can give up yards on the ground. Unlike the Bills who did not test this a week ago rushing Devin Singletary and Frank Gore only 12 combined times, look for Conner and Jaylen Samuels to get plenty of touches early in the game. This is an old-style game where Pittsburgh will need its offensive line to give a clear push in the running game to soften things up for Rudolph and the passing game.
The Cleveland offense played a pretty good game a week ago despite only netting 19 points on the scoreboard. The big problem was they continued to struggle in the red zone as they had twelve plays inside the opponent’s five yard line and came away with a total of 3 points. Two touchdowns there and they would have blown the game wide open. The encouraging news for the Browns is Nick Chubb continues to be nearly unstoppable running the ball as he prepares for a smashmouth game against a physical Steelers front seven. The Browns are also working Kareem Hunt in as a receiver which should only help their backfield attack. Cleveland tried to get Odell Beckham, Jr. involved more in the passing game but Bills cornerback Tre White was playing at an All-Pro level and kept him very quiet. Beckham does his best in the spotlight so don’t be surprised if he hits a big play on Thursday Night. While that connection still hasn’t been electric, Mayfield has been able to connect with Jarvis Landry the past couple of weeks which should ultimately help Beckham get going. The Browns offensive line has played better of late but they will be tested by T.J. Watt and company particular when Mayfield drops back to throw. The Browns should really look to the short passing game to neutralize this advantage for the Steelers to avoid negative plays of their own. Freddie Kitchens has deservedly taken a lot of heat as head coach and it will be interesting to see if he has that same philosophy with the offensive play calling.
KEY STATS – The total has gone over in the last three meetings
between the Steelers and Browns
– The Browns are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games
against the NFC North
The spread and the total seem relatively close from our evaluation and breakdowns so we only have a slight lean with each. Cleveland seems like they should win this game by a field goal so you can certainly look at laying the -2.5. While most Thursday Night Football games have stayed under on the total, this one seems like it should hover just over the fairly low mark that it’s set at. With what seems like accurate numbers and little value, the numbers seem to line up a little better to tease this game and add some values to both of the leans. It seems unlikely that the Browns would blow out their rivals on national TV so getting over one score with a solid 8.5 number is pretty sound. With the short turnaround and a quality Pittsburgh defense there may not be a ton of points, however going over 34.5 doesn’t seem to be asking too much. Can the Browns finally get over the hump against their nemesis missing their QB1 in a tough spot? We’ll be watching to find out, but we’re hoping that if they do it’s by less than a score with some points on the board for both teams.
Yanni’s Pick – Browns -2.5 (Browns 23, Steelers 19)
JJ’s Pick – Browns -2.5 (Browns 23, Steelers 20)
vs. 
ATLANTA FALCONS (2-7) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (5-4)
Sunday – November 17th – 1:00pm
Spread: Carolina Panthers -5
Over/Under: 49.5
Public Money Percentage: Carolina 53%
The Breakdown:
The Atlanta Falcons have owned the Carolina Panthers in recent years and look to build upon their upset against New Orleans when they head to Charlotte. Ron Rivera’s team came up just short against the Packers and are looking to get back in the win column in a game they really need to win if they want to remain relevant in the crowded and top heavy NFC race.
Matt Ryan returned after from his ankle injury and led the Falcons to one of the biggest upsets of the season as they thoroughly outplayed the Saints in New Orleans. Although Ryan and the running game unexpectedly played well, it was the Falcons defense that really came on by surprise holding the Saints to just 9 points. Atlanta will need another nice performance from Ryan and third string running back Brian Hill as we’re going to assume that their defense won’t be able to duplicate a dominant performance again. One of the most underrated players of this season has been tight end Austin Hooper who has been playing at a Pro Bowl level and has acted as a security blanket and red zone target for Ryan. Unfortunately for the Falcons, Hooper is going to miss this contest with a knee injury which could have a bigger impact than might be predicted. You can’t feel too sorry for Ryan though as he’ll still have Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley available to stretch the field out and make some plays. The injuries at running back and to Hooper will however allow the Panthers to scheme more towards containing Jones which should at least slow down the Falcons offense.
The Panthers were a half yard short of potentially coming away with a tough victory in the snow in Green Bay as Christian McCaffrey couldn’t quite get the ball over the goal line as time expired. Despite a strong effort in the trenches from Grady Jarrett and the Falcons a week ago, McCaffrey should find plenty of room against their front seven to continue his monster season. While Kyle Allen has quietly and slowly earned the respect of his teammates and the league, wide receiver D.J. Moore is still flying under the radar despite two really nice games back to back. Moore could be in line for another big game particularly if the Falcons have to commit extra help to slowing down McCaffrey which they likely will. A focal point of emphasis for this game will be the battle of big men between the Carolina offensive line and the Falcon defensive line. Can Atlanta string together another strong performance or will they revert back to how they played previously?
It’s tough to go against trends when one team has thoroughly had their way with another, however every week and season in the NFL is different. Carolina has a lot to play for while Atlanta basically just won their “Super Bowl” beating their rival Saints in their building.
Yanni’s Pick – Panthers -5 (Panthers 28, Falcons 22)
JJ’s Pick – Panthers -5 (Panthers 28, Falcons 20)
vs. 
DALLAS COWBOYS (5-4) at DETROIT LIONS (3-5-1)
Sunday – November 17th – 1:00pm
Spread: Dallas Cowboys -6.5
Over/Under: 51.5
Public Money Percentage: Unknown
The Breakdown:
The records aren’t drastically different between these two teams, yet public perception is definitely skewed in the direction of the Dallas Cowboys. After losing a tough game against the Vikings, Dallas has to go on the road, where they’ve struggled to play well. The big question for the Lions is whether or not they’ll have their leader Matthew Stafford behind center or if he’ll miss another contest due to injury?
For all of the money the Cowboys have invested in their offensive line and running back it had to be painful for Jerry Jones to watch the team’s inability to run the ball at home against Minnesota last Sunday. On the plus side, Dak Prescott played a strong game using his weapons on the outside and giving his team a chance to win before falling short at the end. An even brighter note for Dallas is they’ll have a chance to re-establish Ezekiel Elliott and that running game against the Lions defense that has been unable to really slow anyone down, including Mitch Trubisky and the unimpressive Chicago Bears offense. Even though Dak and Amari Cooper have not performed nearly as well on the road as they have at home, they shouldn’t have much resistance against this Lions secondary that is currently Darius Slay and a few guys that you could argue should or shouldn’t be starting on an NFL roster. More prevalent will be Zeke’s ability to grind out runs of the 5 and 6 yard variety pretty easily in this matchup, something they couldn’t do against the Vikings stout front seven. After being humbled on the national stage, the Cowboys big men upfront should get right and have little trouble controlling the line of scrimmage.
It’s pretty straightforward for the Lions offensively in regards to if they’ll be able to keep pace with Dallas on Sunday. If Matthew Stafford can play, they may be able to match the Cowboys score for score and they can absolutely win this game. If they’re forced to go with backup Jeff Driskel again, they’ll simply not be able to keep up on the scoreboard. The Lions offensive line has played better than many anticipated allowing Stafford and a very good receiving corp to make plays down the field, which they’ll look to do against a Dallas secondary that has had it’s share of plays against them. The lack of a running game with the injuries Detroit has at the running back position will really hurt them in this game as it will allow the Dallas pass rushers to tee off a bit on whoever ends up playing quarterback.
UPDATE – This line is now at 6.5 as Stafford has officially be ruled out. Even though Jeff Driskel kept them competitive a week ago against a poor Chicago Bears offense, not having Stafford in a game like this is pretty crucial as he means everything to this team.
Yanni’s Pick – Cowboys -6.5 (Cowboys 29, Lions 17)
JJ’s Pick – Lions +6.5 (Cowboys 21, Lions 16)
vs.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-5) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-4)
Sunday – November 17th – 1:00pm
Spread: Indianapolis Colts -3
Over/Under: 43.5
Public Money Percentage: Jacksonville 55%
The Breakdown:
Nick Foles returns as the quarterback for the Jaguars after an unceremonious fizzling out of Minshew Mania against a Colts team that couldn’t get any backup QB magic of their own with Jacoby Brisett out, losing a heartbreaker last weekend. This game is pretty critical for both teams in their quest to stay in the chase for the postseason as a win for the Colts will keep them poised to make a run, while a loss for the Jaguars could signal the realistic end of the season for them.
It’s really tough to gauge how the Jacksonville offense will respond and gel with Foles back under center after missing nine weeks which makes this game a little difficult to handicap overall. Foles looked good in basically one quarter of work in week one, and the improved play of the Jags offensive line should help him out against a still underrated Indianapolis defense. The Colts have been pretty stingy against the run, although a little inconsistent at times as they’ll look to slow Leonard Fournette down. Assuming Fournette doesn’t run wild, which we don’t think he will, it will be up to Foles to move the chains and convert third downs to his unheralded but solidly performing receiving corp. Third down conversions are generally an important stat to monitor in a game and in this matchup they could be even more vital than normal as you can expect a lack of big plays from both teams.
The Colts will continue to march on fighting off a slew of injuries as they have all season, although it looks as though they’ll get Jacoby Brissett back calling signals which will be an upgrade despite acceptable play from Brian Hoyer in relief. The big injury to keep an eye on that doesn’t look good is wide receiver T.Y.Hilton who will likely be sitting out the contest after missing last week as well. Without Hilton, the Colts are very limited in the passing game, particularly down the field with big plays. Can they establish Marlon Mack and the running game enough to move the chains consistently, or will someone else step up at the wide receiver position? The Jacksonville defense has played better of late with the exception of a no-show in London, and this is shaping up to be a tough divisional slugfest where the last team standing wins.
The unknown of how Nick Foles will play in his first game back, along with some injuries for the Colts make this a risky play no matter what direction you’re leaning. We aren’t officially playing this one as it’ll be more of a watch and learn type of game for the remainder of the season. It seems like if you want to play this game, you might be best served to take the field goal and hope for the best.
Yanni’s Pick – Jaguars +3 (Jaguars 23, Colts 21)
JJ’s Pick – Jaguars +3 (Jaguars 24, Colts 17)
vs. 
BUFFALO BILLS (6-3) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-7)
Sunday – November 17th – 1:00pm
Spread: Buffalo Bills -6
Over/Under: 40.5
Public Money Percentage: Buffalo 54%
The Breakdown:
One of these teams is hot and coming off of a two game winning streak while the other is coming off of a tough and frustrating loss. In case you slept through the last two weeks of the season it’s the Miami Dolphins looking for a third straight win as they get another shot at a Buffalo Bills team they had on the ropes just a few weeks ago.
A lot of the chatter around the league was that the Bills were the worst 6-2 team in recent memory largely due to their lack of explosiveness on offense. They didn’t do much to dispel that myth against the Browns putting up just 16 points and a having some bad time management at the end trying to tie the game. They’ll have a chance to rebound against the Dolphins defense which they hope is just what the doctor ordered. Miami has played better in recent weeks defensively, however they’re still ranked at the bottom of the pack in the league. The Bills will likely look to get their running back duo of rookie Devin Singletary and veteran Frank Gore going, something the coaching staff took some heat for not doing against a vulnerable Cleveland run defense. They should have success which will make things a little easier for Josh Allen who has not played poorly, but has struggled to take that next step in terms of the passing game. The Bills know they can’t afford to lose this game so you can figure that Josh Allen will also look to make some plays running both by design and when he doesn’t like what he sees. The last time these two teams met, it was a story of two halves particularly for the Bills offensive line as they did not play well early, before taking over and dominating in the second half. The Bills can control this game if their offensive line puts together a 60 minute performance and they take care of the football.
When Miami has the football someone needs to tell Ryan Fitzpatrick that he isn’t supposed to be playing good football and winning games. Fitz’ has been playing really good football recently as everyone seems to be waiting for the turnover barrage to arrive, that hasn’t come just yet. The amazing thing is he’s been doing it with an offensive line that continues to struggle, no real semblance of a running game and minus rookie wideout Preston Williams. The Bills defense has struggled mightily in their run responsibilities, something their coach Sean McDermott claims is due to lack of gap integrity and not skill. The problem for the Dolphins here is they are going to struggle to exploit that as their run game is basically non-existent. That’s going to put a lot of pressure on Fitzpatrick to make plays in the passing game. Bills defensive coordinator is challenging his defense to get more pressure on the quarterback and generate turnovers, something they haven’t done much of lately.
When you look at this game on paper it seems like the Bills should cruise to an easy victory as their strengths run parallel with the Dolphins greatest weaknesses. Despite that, something just seems like this game is going to be a really tight one. Miami is playing care-free and confidently, while the Bills are maybe feeling a little pressure of expecting to win.
Yanni’s Pick – Dolphins +6 (Bills 26, Dolphins 23)
JJ’s Pick – Bills -6 (Bills 24, Dolphins 16)
vs. 
HOUSTON TEXANS (6-3) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-2)
Sunday – November 17th 1:00pm
Spread: Baltimore Ravens -4
Over/Under: 51.5
Public Money Percentage: Baltimore 58%
The Breakdown:
What is probably the game of the week is flying a little under the radar as two potential MVP candidates face each other as both teams have their sites on division titles in their respective divisions. The Ravens seem to have a slight edge on both sides of the ball as well as homefield advantage, yet that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll cruise to an uncontested blowout victory.
The Texans have been a little up and down on offense this season, looking explosive at certain times, and very pedestrian at other moments. In order to win this contest they’ll need to play one of those high octane and red zone efficient games where they are mostly mistake free. Deshaun Watson should be motivated in his matchup and he tends to play well in big situations as we’ve seen throughout his college and NFL career. Carlos Hyde not only resurrected his career this season when he joined the Texans, but he also gave them much needed balance that they were potentially missing when Lamar Miller was lost in the preseason. The problem with this game is the Ravens are their usual stout self against the run defensively, which means it’s going to be tough for Hyde to provide that balance. You can expect a lot of pass attempts from Watson and he may need to improvise a bit with his legs as well to keep drives moving. His number one option DeAndre Hopkins will be mostly locked up with Marlon Humphrey who’s been playing at a Pro Bowl level which means his other receivers are going to need to make some plays at some point during the game. Watson has leaned on his tight ends the last month or so and it’s paid big dividends, especially in the red zone. If Houston can’t move the ball on the ground early, don’t be shocked if they spread the field out and you see a lot of Duke Johnson in the backfield with Watson in shotgun.
Head coach John Harbaugh almost seems in awe of his young MVP candidate quarterback Lamar Jackson, and it’s hard to not feel that way when you watch his highlight reels. Jackson will look to extend his All-Pro play against a Texans defense that like it’s offense has been a little hit or miss this year. They’re still adjusting to life without J.J. Watt again and whether their defense can stand up to the Ravens offensive line and ground game will probably determine whether or not they can compete in this game or not. Baltimore will not hide the fact that they want to be more physical and push the Houston defense around opening up some opportunities for big plays when they’re presented to them. The Ravens have the ability to get really creative with their offensive sets when they want to, but in this game, that probably won’t happen too much if they’re able to control the line of scrimmage.
With as impressive as Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have been the past two weeks it’s pretty tough even consider going against them. It’s actually a little surprising that this line isn’t just a bit higher, although it did open a little higher in most sportsbooks. We’re not officially getting in on this game for the fact that we need to see Baltimore come back down to reality a bit and be challenged. With that being noted, this seems like a great opportunity to fade the public as this should be a game where the Texans lay it all out on the field and we see a tight battle between the two MVP hopefuls. If you don’t believe in the eyeball test, take the 4 points with Houston as that’s the correct play for this game. If you’d rather not taking a chance going against this hot Baltimore Raven team, we got your back on that as we’re completely on board with that thought process.
Yanni’s Pick – Texans +4 (Ravens 26, Texans 23)
JJ’s Pick – Ravens -4 (Ravens 27, Texans 21)
vs. 
DENVER BRONCOS (3-6) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-3)
Sunday – November 17th 1:00pm
Spread: Minnesota Vikings -10.5
Over/Under: 40.5
Public Money Percentage: Minnesota 56%
The Breakdown:
The second start for Brandon Allen with the Denver Broncos will come against the Minnesota Vikings in a very tough place for opposing teams to play. The Vikings are coming off of a huge road win against the Cowboys while the Broncos are fresh off of a bye after their own win against the Browns.
Looking at the stat sheet from Brandon Allen’s first start against Cleveland you’d see a win (which of course is most important) and some solid numbers, probably better than you’d expect. When you back out a great effort on the long touchdown pass to Noah Fant the numbers look a lot more pedestrian. Naturally the Broncos will look to get Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman some early action to take some pressure off of Allen, but when you saw the work the Vikings did on Ezekiel Elliott it will be really tough for Denver to get things going on the ground. Courtland Sutton has made some really nice progress this season at WR and will likely draw Xavier Rhodes in coverage which is actually not as bad as it sounds. Rhodes has not played as well this season as in previous seasons so Sutton may be able to have a little success and he’ll need to for Denver to stay competitive.
The Vikings offense was balanced and strong against the Cowboys led by workhorse running back Dalvin Cook who had 183 total yards. Cook has a nice matchup against the Broncos even though they have played a little better against the run in recent weeks. It’s unknown if Adam Thielen will be able to go and although they were able to throw effectively against Dallas they could really use him against Denver. Chris Harris Jr. will draw Thielen or Diggs depending upon the availability so someone else will need to make some plays at some point. That could be the resurgent Kyle Rudolph or rookie TE Irv Smith, Jr as the Broncos has not done well defending tight ends. All things considered the Vikings offensive line played well against the pass rushers of Dallas and at home they should be able to control Von Miller and the Broncos attack.
This game is a really big mismatch and the spread probably isn’t even enough for the opposite ends of the spectrum that these teams are on. However, there is that big thing that is a reality that is called the “let down factor” which the Vikings are very much on alert for here if you want to bet them. After their huge Monday Night Win, will they really get up and focused for this game?
Yanni’s Pick – Vikings -10.5 (Vikings 30, Broncos 16)
JJ’s Pick – Vikings -10.5 (Vikings 27, Broncos 14)
vs. 
NEW YORK JETS (2-7) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (1-8)
Sunday – November 17th 1:00pm
Spread: Washington Redskins -2
Over/Under: 39
Public Money Percentage: New York Jets 63%
The Breakdown:
Another one of those draft pick games that seem to be popping up a lot during the 2019 season when the one win Redskins host the two win Jets in Washington. Dwayne Haskins was named the starter for the remainder of the season as the Jets take on a rookie quarterback for the second week in a row having rebounded to their loss to the Dolphins a couple of weeks back.
Purely as a human it was nice to see Sam Darnold play a nice game albeit against the horrific Giants defense a week ago. Whether or not that means he can continue developing into a franchise player is still up for debate, and this Sunday’s test might not tell us much more. The Redskins should put up a little better fight, although it’s not quite taking on the 2000 Ravens defense. Darnold might have to do a little more in this game as there are some injury concerns for the Jets on offense as TE Chris Herndon is back out of the lineup after a brief play, Robby Anderson is a question mark, the offensive line is minus two starters and most importantly Le’Veon Bell may not be able to go. Jamison Crowder and Darnold have developed some nice chemistry, but that doesn’t seem like it’s going to be enough to put a lot of points up.
When we look at the Redskins, their ability to win this game will probably depend on the young Haskins, although not in the way that you may think. The Jets will have trouble moving the ball in this game, unless they’re given short fields and points handed to them, which could happen if Haskins doesn’t take care of the ball. The Jets have had their own challenges defensively even though the were able to thwart Saquon Barkley. They’ll likely be focused on stopping what will now be a running back tandem with Adrian Peterson and the return of Derrius Guice. As is the case with the Jets, can Haskins do enough with the limited weapons to keep offense going throughout the game?
As crazy as it is to say, the Jets are a better football team than the Redskins top to bottom, at least by a little bit. Despite the poor records this has been a somewhat heavily wagered game early in the week and the public is all over the Jets.
Yanni’s Pick – Redskins -2 (Redskins 19, Jets 16)
JJ’s Pick – Jets +2 (Jets 23, Redskins 20)
vs. 
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7-2) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (3-6)
Sunday – November 17th 1:00pm
Spread: New Orleans Saints -5.5
Over/Under: 50.5
Public Money Percentage: New Orleans Saints 62%
The Breakdown:
Coming off of a shocking loss against the Falcons, the New Orleans Saints travel within the division to take on another familiar foe in Tampa Bay. The Saints are looking to re-establish their control in the NFC while the Buccaneers are playing towards next year with some unanswered questions, mostly at the quarterback position.
Drew Brees didn’t look very sharp last week and although it wasn’t really mentioned, he looked as though he was in some discomfort around his ribs on a few occasions. We might be making a mountain out of a molehill but it certainly is worth keeping an eye on. Brees, Kamara and gang will look to get back on track and it would seem they’ll be able to do that as TB has given up its share of points. If you dig a little deeper it may not be as easy at seems when you realize NO has had issues putting up points in Tampa over the past handful of years. Looking beyond that, this Saints offense is no longer a spread em’ out and chuck it down the field variety. Their plan centers around getting Kamara, Latavius Murray and the run game going and using short and intermediate passes when the opportunities arise. The Bucs have been the best in the league all season at stopping the run so Sean Payton may need to be a little creative and try to get the ball to Kamara in space. A less noticeable thing to watch is how the impact of losing OL Andrus Peat impacts the blocking and protection of the offensive line. When he was out of the lineup Drew Brees saw a lot of pressure he hasn’t faced up until that point.
We all know the routine with the Tampa Bay offense, Jameis Winston is going to push the ball down the field to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and it’s either going to work really well or there are going to be a lot of mistakes. What we’re interested in seeing is how the Saints defense responds after a really uninspiring performance last weekend. More than likely the combination of Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber are going to see a more disciplined and angry defense than the Falcons saw a week ago. Some really good matchups between the Saints secondary and the TB wideouts highlight the best to watch and will play a big factor in the outcome of the game. A positive thing for Tampa a week ago was finally getting an appearance out of tight end O.J. Howard who can really benefit in the middle of the field if he can do what they need him to do.
The BetCrushers are a split on the vibe of this game as JJ is expecting a bit of shootout where as Yanni thinks it will be a little more of a defensive struggle. It sounds crazy after how high everyone was on the Saints just a couple of weeks back but this is a really important game for the Saints to get their mojo back and stay near the top in the NFC as a home game for them would be really beneficial.
Yanni’s Pick – Buccaneers +5.5 (Saints 23, Buccaneers 21)
JJ’s Pick – Saints -5.5 (Saints 30, Buccaneers 24)
vs. 
ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-6-1) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (8-1)
Sunday – November 17th 4:05pm
Spread: San Francisco 49ers -10.5
Over/Under: 45
Public Money Percentage: Arizona 63%
The Breakdown:
And then there were none, undefeated teams that is as the 49ers lost a heartbreaker in overtime last week against the Seahawks. They get another home game and welcome in another divisional opponent in the Arizona Cardinals. A surprising amount of money has come in on the Cardinals driving this line down from an open at -13.5 to -10.5 and with the Cardinals being 5-1 in their last 6 ATS you can understand why.
The Cardinals are really starting to get some things going on offense and it Kyler Murray could end up being really good in this league. He’s had the benefit of some much better blocking up front than Josh Rosen had a year ago which has helped the ground game keep them ahead of the chains and in manageable passing situations. David Johnson is flat out not healthy and doesn’t look anything like what we saw two years ago. It’s hard to know if he’ll get healthy or have a short-lived NFL career, so give the Cardinals credit for bringing in Kenyan Drake who has been a nice shot in the arm for this team. All of this is almost a future state conversation as it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals will be able to do much on the ground against the Niner defense. It’s also tough to envision them making much happen through the air as Christian Kirk will be going against the best team defending the slot in the league. Unless Murray can make some magic scrambling, it won’t be shocking to see Arizona really having trouble scoring points.
Things looked great for San Francisco last week on offense in the first quarter before they basically came to a halt for the duration of the game. Part of that was due to Jadeveon Clowney having one of the best games we can recall seeing in recent history, but a big part of it seemed to be when new weapon Emmanuel Sanders left with a rib cartilage injury. Sanders looks like a game-time decision and unfortunately for SF tight end George Kittle does not look like he’ll be able to go. If the Niners offensive line can get a push and they can run the ball the way they have for good stretches of this year, it shouldn’t matter. If the Cardinals can hold up against the zone running scheme of Kyle Shanahan they can probably keep this game close.
You’ve got to imagine that San Francisco will be able to get back into the win column as they should overmatch the Cardinals. This Arizona team has been playing their opponents really tough however and bettors have caught on to that. It’s feasible that the 49ers could win this game by four touchdowns, but it’s equally as feasible that this could be a really close game. Take your pick and best of luck.
Yanni’s Pick – Cardinals +10.5 (49ers 27, Cardinals 17)
JJ’s Pick – Niners -10.5 (49ers 28, Cardinals 17)
vs. 
CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-9) at OAKLAND RAIDERS (5-4)
Sunday – November 17th 4:25pm
Spread: Oakland Raiders -11
Over/Under: 48.5
Public Money Percentage: Oakland 61%
The Breakdown:
It’s week number eleven and the Cincinnati Bengals will travel to the west coast in search of their first win of the season against a surprising Oakland Raiders team. Ryan Finley makes his second career start as Oakland looks for better positioning in search of a playoff berth.
Ryan Finley looked like a rookie making his first start in a rough spot against the Baltimore Ravens and trailing big for most of the game. He did make a few nice plays and certainly didn’t back down or have the moment look too big for him. The most encouraging thing for Bengal fans had to be the emergence of Joe Mixon and a commitment to the running game. They’ll no doubt be focused on continuing that gameplan and should be able to make a little dent in the Raiders front. The big concern offensively is whether or not the Bengals offensive tackles can hold up against the young pass rush of the edge rushers on the Oakland roster. Not only to give the Bengals a chance to stay in the game, but also to give Finley a fair evaluation of if he can play quarterback at this level.
It’s kind of hard to believe when you look at the Oakland offense that they are consistently putting up a lot of points and going over their point totals. That certainly seems like it could happen again as the Bengals defense has been abysmal both against the run and the pass. It’s hard to recall a team with a less talented and producing linebacking corp in recent memory which is good news for running back Josh Jacobs who has heated up and looked really good over the past few weeks. Jacobs should have a big day so if you have him in fantasy football you’re going to be in good shape. Derek Carr just continues to play sound football with a relatively “no name” type of offense. He’ll be able to pick the matchups he likes with his receivers against the Bengals and should also have a pretty nice day.
The Raiders shouldn’t have trouble keeping their winning ways going as this doesn’t feel like the spot where the Bengals could spring an upset and get their first win. The real question is will it be blowout city as it was against against the Ravens or can they keep it competitive in a stadium that has been rocking to support their lame duck franchise?
Yanni’s Pick – Bengals +11 (Raiders 30, Bengals 20)
JJ’s Pick – Bengals +11 (Raiders 27, Bengals 23)
vs. 
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-1) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (5-4)
Sunday – November 17th 4:25pm
Spread: New England Patriots -4
Over/Under: 45
Public Money Percentage: New England 62%
The Breakdown:
A big inter-conference battle takes place in Philly as the Patriots and Eagles knock off the rust of a bye week and play in a rematch of Super Bowl LII. New England is looking to bounce back after a prime-time loss to the Ravens and the Eagles need a win to stay tight in their battle with the Cowboys in the NFC East.
Despite their 8-1 record the New England Patriots can’t hide the fact that their offensive line has been struggling and is perhaps the weakest it has been during the Brady/Belichek era. The single most important thing they need to do against Philadelphia is figure out how to keep Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham away from Tom Brady. We can rest assured that Belicheck and Josh McDaniels are well aware of this and will have some plans in mind on how they want to do this. Even though that may involve some chipping, or extra protection, it will likely mean a whole lot of 6 yard quick passes from Brady. Julian Edelman may have his first double digit catch game of the season and Mohammed Sanu should see a lot of targets as well. In terms of extending that gameplan, Bill Belichek doesn’t try to force things that aren’t there and in this case that will be the running game. The Eagles have been strong as usual against the run so don’t expect the Pats to bang their head against that wall with Sony Michel a whole lot if it isn’t working early. James White and Rex Burkhead will likely log a lot of snaps and probably a lot of receptions in this game. The Eagles have been very vulnerable against the deep ball this season but they’ve played better the last couple of games with the return of Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills. Ultimately, the Patriots are going to find success working the under middle against a very average (to be kind) linebacking corp.
When the season started we had noted that the Eagles would be a great “over” team as they were poised to absolutely light up scoreboards. As we fast forward to week eleven we’re trying to figure out how Philadelphia is going to be able to score points against this very disciplined and top ranked defense? The loss of DeSean Jackson has absolutely thwarted the big play ability of this offense and things could be even worse as Alshon Jeffery looks very questionable to suit up on Sunday. Facing New England with Nelson Agholor as your number one wideout is not the ideal situation to be in if you’re Carson Wentz and Doug Pederson. Normally you’d look to lean on the running game with Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders but New England has been great all season at slowing down opposing runners. That leaves them with their tight end duo of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert which is normally a matchup problem, but NE is also the best at defending the tight end through their first nine games.
If you read that breakdown there doesn’t seem to be a lot of hope for the Eagles in this ballgame, however all is not hopeless if you’re an Eagles fan or want to take the 4 points. New England has not played nearly as well on the road as they have in the comfort of Gillette Stadium so there is one piece of good news for the guys in green. The Patriots have also not been blowing “quality” opponents out over the last two seasons so even with the odds stacked a bit in their favor this could be a close ballgame.
Yanni’s Pick – Patriots -4 (Patriots 26, Eagles 18)
JJ’s Pick – Patriots -4 (Patriots 27, Eagles 21)
vs. 
CHICAGO BEARS (4-5) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (5-4)
Sunday – November 17th 8:20pm
Spread: Los Angeles Rams -6
Over/Under: 40
Public Money Percentage: Chicago 53%
The Breakdown:
Even though there is still some time left in the 2019 campaign, this likely a must-win game for both of these teams, particularly the Bears, if they have any thoughts of making it into the postseason. This one has the making of a hard hitting black and blue type game where the team that can run the ball and not turn it over has the advantage.
The Chicago Bears and Mitchell Trubisky are coming off a critical win and some improvement in the passing game to keep their slim chances at the postseason alive. If you glance at the box score you’ll see Trubisky played a clean game and tossed three touchdown passes which is pretty impressive. If you watched the game however you would have noticed that it took the Bears a while to get anything going at all. Despite the touchdown passes the Bears offense still didn’t move the ball all that well against the Lions who were the second worst defense in the league going into the game. They are going to have a really tough assignment on the road against the Rams who have turned from an offensive juggernaut to more of a defensive minded team this season. With Aaron Donald and company battling along the line of scrimmages and the revamped Rams secondary locking down on Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel it’s tough to imagine the Bears being able to generate much offense in this game. The running game desperately misses Jordan Howard and they’ll most likely struggle to get anything going there either. The Bears point total is 16.5 and although we’re not officially playing it, the under sure seems like a good play there.
Last year’s wonder coach Sean McVay has suddenly become old news as the league caught up a bit to his stretch offensive scheme. Truth be told it’s more about the poor play from the offensive line that has really stymied this offensive growth and production. This offense is based on running the football and play action passing and the running game simply hasn’t been there. Against the Bears they’re going to need it to get going as they’re clearly weaker stopping the run as opposed to the pass. It hasn’t been talked about much but the loss of Brandin Cooks has also hurt this offense as teams are able to match up against two receivers much easier than three. That was evident a week ago as Cooper Kupp was shutout completely for the first time since returning from his injury. The formula on offense for LA is simple in this game: Figure out how to get Todd Gurley and the running game going to neutralize Khalil Mack and the Bears pass rush and opportunistic secondary. Sean McVay has had some prep time and if he’s as sharp as he was made out to be will figure out a way to get things moving on the ground.
KEY STATS – The Bears are 3-15 straight up in their last 18 games
as road underdogs
It seems like at the end of this game the Rams will keep a small piece of hope remaining for a playoff run and the Bears will likely find themselves looking toward the future. Because neither team is playing great offense right now, this game will likely be close and probably come down to the wire. Don’t underestimate the advantage the Rams have in the special teams department as field goals could be crucial in deciding the winner here.
Yanni’s Pick – Rams -6 (Rams 20, Bears 13)
JJ’s Pick – Rams -6 (Rams 23, Bears 13)
vs. 
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-4) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (4-6)
(Game is being played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City)
Monday – November 18th 8:15pm
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5
Over/Under: 52
Public Money Percentage: Kansas City 62%
The Breakdown:
Hopefully field conditions will be fine in Estadio Azteca so the whole world can enjoy what should be a fun ballgame between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football. Both teams enter the game looking to rebound from poor performances last week and needing wins for different reasons. While this game may not quite be the Chiefs/Rams contest from a year ago, it should still provide plenty of offensive fireworks and good entertainment. Can either team find enough defense to make stops in big situations? And a bigger question may be can either defense hold up against the fatigue of playing at an altitude of over 7200 feet above sea level, substantially higher than Mile High Stadium in Denver?
Anyone who thought Patrick Mahomes might be a little rusty or limited in his return to action against the Titans was flat out wrong as Mahomes was nimble, accurate and dazzling as usual. We mentioned it in a teaser bet we had last week that Mahomes throwing for huge yardage is probably the safest bet in all of the NFL right now and that should continue against the Chargers defense. Even though LA has done well against the pass versus some good quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers recently. there simply doesn’t seem to be any game plan that can slow down the Chiefs and their multitude of weapons. The speed of Kansas City could really tire out the Chargers in the thin air and it’s very likely that there will be a lot of big plays in this game. One thing KC did not do well a week ago is run the football consistently. LeSean McCoy was a healthy scratch due to some fumbling issues and Damien Williams who exploded against the Vikings was held down for the most part and had a costly fumble of his own against Tennessee. The Chargers have been gashed at times on the ground so Andy Reid will need to stay patient with the run game to do some damage. Perhaps even more importantly, the running game can give his own very susceptible defense a bit of a rest and tire out the Chargers playmakers, specifically Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.
We may be reading a little too much into things, but is it just us or does this season seem to be the beginning of the end for Philip Rivers as a Charger, or perhaps even in the NFL? Rivers has shown he can still make plays and deliver victories, yet something just appears off in general. Fortunately for him he will have a matchup against a secondary that was basically torched by Ryan Tannehill and some mediocre skill talent just eight days prior. The key to this game for LA is how well they can get Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler controlling the tempo and time of possession. Gordon came on big last week and Ekeler remains a great option out of the backfield and each have to be licking their chops against that KC defense that could not tackle Derrick Henry at all. The Chargers could be without both of their starting tackles which could prove costly against Frank Clark and their edge rushers when Rivers does need to throw.
KEY STATS – The Chiefs are 23-2 straight up in their previous 25
games against the AFC West
– The favorites have covered all 3 games played in
Mexico City
The Kansas City Chiefs absolutely deflated us a week ago so we’re a little shy to pull the trigger with them again in a similar spot. Despite the recent bad taste, this simply just seems like one that makes too much sense to pass up. The line has moved in the Chiefs favor as the public is surprisingly not hammering Kansas City as we had expected. Even with laying the hook at 3.5, after two weeks of casino dominance, it seems like a little flattening out is due to the average Joe, with this game being the perfect spot for that. Ultimately, the Chiefs dominance of the AFC West should continue as they look to put a nail into the coffin that is the Chargers season. Expect the Chiefs defense to play a little better than they did a week ago and do just enough to help the offense get the win and the cover.
