Previous Week Plays – 1-4-1
Season Record – 19-14-1
Week 8 Recap:
How exactly do you type out the sound of the puke emoji when reviewing our week 8 of posted plays? Coming off one of our best weekends, we regressed and gave some of our profits back with a pretty filthy weekend that saw some miscalculations, and tough breaks. The only win was the over in the Bills/Patriots tilt despite a struggling Patriots offense and some weather was set too low. We were looking about even early as that game was looking like a cover, as was the total over in the Bengals and Titans game. What never really had a chance of hitting was the Rams minus a field goal against Tua and the Dolphins in Miami. We certainly weren’t anticipating 4 turnovers helping the Fins’ to a small upset victory, but hey, when you roll with Jared Goff things can sometimes go sideways. Where the snowball effect really started going downhill was in the 4th quarter of that Bengals/Titans match when a missed extra point with 3 minutes in the fourth quarter kept the total right on the number resulting in a push that should have been a win. We got the good Nick Foles in their game with the Saints as he made a couple of deep throws down the field that allowed the Bears to go over their total we had as an under play. The Packers somewhat surprising loss to the Vikings killed our teaser, and in one of those games where you just know it’s going to get you, the Giants also went over their team total. When a day starts going downhill, you basically feel what’s coming, and Daniel Jones convering a 4th and 16 before later tossing a touchdown with seconds left sums up the day. Ah well, maybe we weren’t living right last week, karma got us. In actuality, just a little regression, and we’ll hope our handicapping this weekend puts us in a good enough spot where we don’t need to rely on good or bad luck to determine our outcomes.
Week 9 Picks:
Weather does not appear to be a big factor as it was a week ago, although COVID-19 certainly may, as teams are seeing more cases land players on the C-19 list. Spreads have not been quite as volatile across the board as they were a week ago, although that could be subject to change up until game times. There is a huge alert from us before venturing any further in this week’s selections: We are squared up with traditionally ugly chalk bets. If you believe in being a “sharp” bettor, our picks this week are definitely not for you as we’re on three road favorites, one of whom is laying a number that is the ultimate no-no in football betting. Add an under total to those, and that’s what we’re publicly playing in what he hope is a bounce-back performance Sunday afternoon.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills
vs. 
Seattle Seahawks (6-1) vs. Buffalo Bills (6-2)
Sunday November 8th
1:00pm
FOX
Bills Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 55 (-110)
A high-scoring game is expected in Buffalo between two teams that have had success offensively and struggled defensively this season. The Seahawks are trying to stay atop of the competitive NFC West, while the Bills being the first game in what is a difficult stretch during the month of November.
The Seahawks might be the easiest offense in the league to breakdown. They’re going to move the ball and score points in pretty much any situation and scenario. That will be the case again as they have a favorable matchup against the Bills defense that has 4 starters questionable to play. The Bills have struggled in three areas defensively. Stopping power running games, not generating a pass rush or containing mobile quarterbacks, and with number two wide receivers. If you haven’t followed football this year go ahead and take a stab at what the Seahawks are extremely good at? Seahawks running back Chris Carson is questionable to play and that is important for this game as he is the type of runner that can push his way through a weak interior. With Carlos Hyde ruled out as his backup, this is something to keep an eye on. Expect Tyler Lockett to draw Tre’ White in pass coverage which means a lot of D.K. Metcalf matched up against small and not so talented corners on the other side of the field. This could also be a game where Greg Olsen and the Seahawk tight ends find themselves open if the Bills are intent on trying to slow down Metcalf and the running game. What will be the backbreaker here are third down conversions, an area where Buffalo ranks at the bottom of the league and Seattle is near the top. Russell Wilson will extend drives with his legs if he feels he needs to.
The Bills offense has sputtered a bit after a hot start and any chance of getting the win on Sunday is going to require them putting a lot of points on the scoreboard. The good news for them is, the Seahawks have proven they do give up a lot of points as they have their own issues with pass rush and defense. Josh Allen is going to need to get the passing game going again and incorporate guys like John Brown and the running backs in addition to Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley who he’s been locked onto the last few weeks. The Seahawks do have a couple of nice pieces they will be plugging in with the return of their All-Pro safety Jamal Adams and the addition of Carlos Dunlap in a trade with the Bengals to rush the passer. The Bills finally got their ground game going last week against the Patriots, and in an effort to keep the potent Seahawks offense on the sidelines, they’ll need to continue that. Rookie Zack Moss has given balance with Devin Singletary so as long as the chains keep moving, they’ll both see plenty of action. As we mentioned with Wilson sustaining drives with his legs, Allen should be game for that approach as well.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games
– The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games
– The Seahawks are 10-2 straight up in their last 12 road games
It was just a few weeks ago when a similar Kansas City Chiefs team came into Orchard Park and as a short favorite and we suggested loading up on them to get the cover. The more things change, the more the stay the same in the NFL. The Bills defense is dinged up, which is not a good position to be when you’re taking on the Seattle Seahawks. The fact of the matter is that even at full strength, this unit has not looked good this season at all. While it’s reasonable to assume the Bills can somewhat keep up on the scoreboard, it just seems like there is a difference in tier levels of these teams. The Bills are a good football team, but the Seahawks are a very good team. Add in the fact that the Hawks’ have been really productive traveling to the east coast the last few seasons and the Russell Wilson MVP tour should keep its steam for a cover.
BetCrushers Take: Seattle Seahawks -2.5
Seahawks 34, Bills 27
Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (5-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (5-2)
Sunday November 8th
1:00pm
CBS
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Baltimore Ravens -1.5 (-115)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
A pair of 5-2 teams meet in a game that very likely will have some sort of playoff implications later in the season. The Ravens are looking to recover from a tough loss as the Colts hope to string together a second win in as many weeks. Both teams have the ability to put up points, yet it could be the defenses that shine in very physical battle.
It’s a bit of an adjustment period for the Ravens on offense as they’ll continue to learn how to play without Ronnie Stanley on their offensive line. If any team can overcome a loss like that, it’s a team that has a quarterback with a lot of mobility. Enter Lamar Jackson. The critics have been circling Jackson just as quickly as they were anointing him at this time twelve months ago. It won’t be an easy task going against a Colts defense that looked good with the return of their leader Darius Leonard last week. It won’t be easy for their somewhat maligned receiving corp either which put some additional pressure on Jackson and his backfield mates. The Colts have defended tight ends pretty well, but Mark Andrews is going to have to find a way to make some plays in this game. Ultimately, this is the type of game where Jackson is going to have to shoulder the load. Can he quiet his critics for another week or will the chatter around the world get louder for last year’s MVP?
When the Colts have the ball on offense is really where the keys to this game are going to happen. This Ravens defense is still growing a bit as a unit with their new pieces, particularly on their defensive line. They’ll go up against a physical offensive line for the second week in a row with the two obvious goals of stopping the run, and pressuring Philip Rivers. The trio of rookie Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins have been serviceable this season in relief of Marlon Mack but it’s going to be a tough assignment for them Sunday. The Colts need to establish just enough of a running game to keep the Ravens defense honest so they aren’t blitzing or teeing off on the immobile Rivers. The corners for Baltimore should be able to routinely win their matchups against a banged up and unproductive T.Y. Hilton (if he suits up), and the likes of Parris Campbell and Zach Paschall. The Colts would be wise to utilize their three-headed tight end monster in the short passing game to get the ball out of Philip Rivers hands quickly. Turnovers are always crucial, and in some games and with some teams they matter even more than others. This is one of those games as whether or not Rivers can take care of the football could ultimately decide the winner of this game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Colts are 0-7 straight up in the last 7 home games as an underdog
– The Ravens are 9-0 straight up in their last 9 road games
As we mentioned at the start of the article we’re going full “Joe Public” and laying -1.5 on the road against a good team. There are really three main reasons we’re opting to take the square route. First, you have to at least glance at the historical trends which tell you that the Colts have not faired well as home underdogs. Conversely, the Ravens have won their last 9 games on the road and many in impressive fashion. Second, the matchup truly favors the Ravens on the defensive side of the ball as they should really be able to lock down the Colts. If there were ever a game where Rivers could toss three picks, this is one of those opportunities. And finally, this is a spot where there is true value for the Ravens in what is a “buy low” situation, as the public and media are down on them after their tough losses.
BetCrushers Take: Baltimore Ravens -1.5
Ravens 24, Colts 20
Miami Dolphins vs. Arizona Cardinals
vs. 
Miami Dolphins (4-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals (5-2)
Sunday November 8th
4:25pm
CBS
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Arizona Cardinals -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
The NFL will get a nice showcase of young QB talent as Tua Tagavailoa makes his second start in Arizona in a meeting that features Kyler Murray on the other side. At this point, we know what to expect from Murray and the Cardinals, but there is still a lot of curiosity around what we’ll see from Tua. One thing that is certain is the importance for both of these teams as they try to keep pace in their respective divisions.
Most people believed the Miami Dolphins would be improved this season with the draft capital and free agent acquisitions that they added. The truth is, this team is further ahead than they probably should be at this point. Give Brian Flores and the now benched Ryan Fitzpatrick a lot of credit for that. We’re still in a wait and see mode with Tua as he didn’t need to test the likes of a cornerback like Jalen Ramsey last weekend. Unless they can benefit from a slew of turnovers and defensive scores again, he’s going to have to make some plays this weekend against a defense that has its own playmakers as Budda Baker is proving to be a star at safety for Arizona. The running game will be without Myles Gaskin who is now on IR, meaning Matt Breida and Jordan Howard now are responsible for the running game. A good running game is always a key for a young quarterback so let’s see how much they can help out Tagavailoa there. Another good friend is a strong tight end, and Mike Gesicki has shown flashes of really good play this season. He’ll have his hands full against a secondary that has done a nice job on opposing tight ends. So as we circle back on this one, it basically comes down to how well Tua can play in his first road start in the NFL?
The Cardinals have plenty of explosive ability on their offense as the re-emergence of Christian Kirk with DeAndre Hopkins and Larry Fitzgerald has helped generate some big downfield plays. It may not be an easy of a task at is it may seem taking on this Miami Dolphins defense. It’s not a stretch to say that this is the most improved unit from last season to this season. If you’re rooting for Miami here, you should feel encouraged with the way their secondary can lock horns with the wide receivers of Arizona. It sounds strange, but the concern for the Dolphins might be in stopping the running game with the Cardinals backup Chase Edmonds. Their former back Kenyan Drake is doubtful to go, yet it’s Edmonds that poses the bigger threat when you look at their body of work this year. The Dolphins defensive line has been playing pretty well, as Jared Goff would attest to and the Cardinals aren’t great upfront. Much like in the Baltimore breakdown, that’s going to put a lot of pressure on Kyler Murray to make some plays running and throwing outside of the pocket. He’s more than capable of doing that, but it’s no guarantee he will be able to consistently hit the big plays.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone under in 4 of the last 6 Dolphins games
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 7 Cardinals games
– 80% of bets are on the over
This line seems right about where it should be when you complete the study of these two teams and all of the variables. Between that, and the still unclear picture of where Tua is in his second real action, we’re steering clear of this spread. What we do actually like are two somewhat underrated defenses playing in what could be a close football game. After the first six weeks of the season, taking an under that’s posted at less than 50 would seem absolutely insane. There has clearly been some regression over the last couple of weeks and totals seem to be settling back to a little more of what we’ve traditionally expected them to be. The public hasn’t quite bought into that yet as over 80% of bets placed on this total have been on the over. Just one more reason we really like this game to stay in the low 20’s and not get to the number.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Under 49
Cardinals 24, Dolphins 20
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Dallas Cowboys
vs. 
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-0) vs. Dallas Cowboys (2-6)
Sunday November 8th
4:25pm
FOX
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Pittsburgh Steelers -13.5 (-115)
Over/Under 41.5 (-110)
If this game were being played in the 1970’s, or even the mid-1990’s, it would easily be the showcase of the weekend. These are still two of the power franchises of the league, however this game is anything but a marquee matchup that America wants to see. The Steelers aim to remain perfect on the season as the Cowboys are just hoping to find someone to play quarterback and give them a chance to win.
Statistically speaking, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been playing pretty average football. You have to look beyond that and explore the offense as a whole unit, which is playing very effectively. In this matchup, the Steelers really don’t even need to be average against a Cowboys defense that just plain can’t stop anyone. We listed James Conner as a Star of the Week in fantasy football this weekend for just that reason. The Steelers are going to establish their dominance early in this game behind Conner and their running game. When they need to throw, they should find very little resistance against arguably the worst performing secondary in the entire league. With rookie Chase Claypool really coming on, this Steeler offense is suddenly very balanced and very difficult to defend. The Steelers simply need to take care of the football and they’ll score as much as they really want or need to.
Bill Parcells was one of the early adopters of the phrase “if you have two quarterbacks, you have none”. That would appear to be the case for the Cowboys this weekend as they still have not committed to Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush as their signal caller this weekend. If you’re keeping track, this will mark the 4th quarterback in the last 5 weeks for Dallas. You don’t need to be a savvy football analyst to recognize this is a horrible spot for any team to be in. Throw in the fact that their next matchup is against one of the top defenses in the league and the term recipe for disaster is very much in play here. Even if backup QB Andy Dalton were able to go, it would still be a tall order for Dallas as their success, or in this season failure, starts with their depleted offensive line. What was was the strength of this team is now a nightmare, and something that players like T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree have to be really pumped about. How can anyone possible expect that Gilbert or Rush are going to be successful knowing the heavy duress they will be under in this football game? The argument you can make is that if they can get a running game going it could slow down the pass rush, except you can’t really make that argument. Since Dak Prescott went down, Ezekiel Elliott is averaging a paltry 3 yards per carry behind that not so formidable offensive line. Oh by the way, the Steelers boast a top three rushing defense in the league. There is really only area where the Cowboys have a small advantage and that is with their talented wideouts against a mediocre secondary for Pittsburgh. Not to beat a dead horse, but it’s hard to see those weapons being able to get the ball in their hands enough to really consistently threaten a defense like the Steelers. This is the type of game that a ball-hawking safety like Minkah Fitzpatrick could make some highlight reel plays.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus the NFC
The only thing we’re really going to talk about here is whether or not it’s responsible to ever lay two touchdowns in an NFL football game. Over the years the answer to that was always a strong no, but this ain’t your grandpa’s NFL that we’re watching these days. This game is a complete mismatch in nearly every single aspect. Is there any possible way that the Cowboys are going to be able to score points in this game? This could very easily be a 45-3 game if the Steelers wanted to punish this depleted Cowboy team. Our best guess is they’ll try to get a lead and get out of there quickly and quietly. With a proud defense like the Steelers have, and a Cowboy offense that won’t be able to block, a backdoor touchdown seems very unlikely. As crazy as the 13.5 point spread seems, this is far too low. If the Chiefs can be -21 against the Jets, this point spread should be about the same giving the Steelers a touchdown of free value in our estimation. Look for a blowout beyond the seemingly high line.
BetCrushers Take: Pittsburgh Steelers -13.5
Steelers 30, Cowboys 10
