Previous Week Plays – 2-2
Season Record – 21-15-1
Week 7 Recap:
After a quick 2-0 start to the weekend, things looked primed for a sweep 4-0 record, when the bottom fell out. Let’s recap the two wins first. The Titans were all over the Colts in the first half as they rattled Matt Ryan into turnovers that not only secured our first half cover, it may have ended Ryan’s career in the NFL. The game between the Broncos and Jets went exactly as we had handicapped, leading to a cover of the under, that was never really threatened. We also had a pretty easy cover of the first leg of our teaser as the Raiders handled an undermanned Texans group. Our next play looked great after the Dolphins racked up 13 quick points in the first quarter, in what looked like a cruise to their team total over. Unfortunately, they were conservative and underwhelming, scoring just a field goal in the final three quarters, handing us our first loss of the weekend. Things still looked great heading into Monday Night Football, as we simply needed the Patriots to score a home win by a FG against the feeble offense of the Bears. The game did a complete 180 on us, as the Bears offense pushed around Bill Belichick’s defense and pulled off a pretty big road upset. This seemed like it should have been a perfect weekend at best, and 3-1 at worst, yet somehow a .500 mark at 2-2 is all we could end up with.
Week 8 Picks:
Death, taxes and the BetCrushers playing a teaser bet were all but guaranteed over the past several years. For the first time in a really long time, we’re going to take a sabbatical on a teaser and skip week 8. This is partly due to the fact we didn’t love any of the potential options out there, but also because sometimes you just have to cut your losses. Teasers were a putrid 1-7-1 for us so far this season, and a break is clearly needed. That left us with five total plays including a road underdog, a game total, and a little bit of road chalk. We’ve got two plays in an AFC South contest, and week number eight features what is our favorite bet of the season so far as well. Let’s see how skipping a teaser does for our record and bankroll this weekend.
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (4-2) vs. Houston Texans (1-4-1)
Sunday October 30th
1:00pm
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Tennessee Titans -2.5 (-105)
Over/Under 40 (-110)
For the second week in a row we’re in the AFC South as the Tennessee Titans head to Houston to take on the Texans. Overlooked as usual, the Titans are finding ways to win games, and are now in the driver’s seat within the division. It’s too early in the season to consider this a spoiler role for the Houston Texans, however you know they desperately need a win, and knocking off their rivals would be a huge boost in their season. The Texans have had a lot of recent success against the Titans, can they continue that as a home underdog?
There’s rarely anything spicy to talk about with the Tennessee Titans offense and won’t change much this weekend. That is unless quarterback Ryan Tannehill misses the game with his injured ankle. If for whatever reason he can’t go, we’d get a start from rookie QB Malik Willis, which would absolutely make things more interesting. Signs seem to point to Tannehill being able to start, so we’re expecting another boring, yet effective football game plan from offensive coordinator Todd Downing. That would be the safest bet for Tennessee going against the second worst run defense in the league for Houston, who may also be without one of their top run stuffers in Maliek Collins. Derrick Henry has had over 200 yards rushing in each of his last three meetings with the Texans. Yes, you read that correctly, 200 yards. Even with some backup offensive linemen, there really is little to believe Henry won’t find continued success against this Texans defense. In all seriousness, Ryan Tannehill may not have to do much in this game other than hand the football off. Mike Vrabel will not be afraid to hand the ball off 40 times if it’s working. As bland as this offensive breakdown is, there’s really no reason to need to dive any deeper in this game.
At stretches during this season the Houston Texans offense has really looked good. The challenge is they can often go stretches looking really uninspiring. When they’ve been more productive, we’ve seen rookie Dameon Pierce run the ball really well as a featured back. That won’t be easy against a still fairly stout Titans defense. It is worth noting that Titans top defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons may not suit up, which would certainly help that run game for Houston. If the Texans can stay balanced and put themselves in 3rd and manageable situations, they have a chance to score points in this game. It’s really a necessity as the Titans have found ways to generate both pressure and turnovers, despite not having Harold Landry III in the lineup. Houston quarterback Davis Mills really needs to take some chances against the corners for the Titans. Kristian Fulton has been susceptible to giving up big plays, and with a player like Brandin Cooks, there should be some opportunities to push the ball down the field. As many young quarterbacks often do, Mills has played much better at home, although he did have a nice game last week in Las Vegas. Mills needs to find the right mix of taking chances throwing the football, without being careless and turning the ball over.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Titans are 10-1 straight up in their last 11 games against the AFC South
– The total has gone over in the last 5 games between the Texans and Titans in Houston
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games at home for the Texans
Although we’re not huge believers in the Titans as a whole, this team does seem to just find ways to win football games. Initially, it looked like some road chalk was the play here, but home dogs in divisional games are crushing it this season, and the Texans have really owned the Titans in the Mike Vrabel era, at least against the spread. What we’re doing is going back to what worked for us a week ago with Tennessee, which is figuring they’ll start out strong as they have much of the past month. We’re expecting them to get an early lead in this game and should be able to take a lead into halftime. With plenty of -.5’s and -1’s out there on first half spreads, we’ll see if we can get another strong start for Tennessee in this divisional matchup.
BetCrushers Take: Tennessee Titans – First Half -.5 (-110) / Game Total – Over 40
Titans 24, Texans 22 (First Half Titans 14, Texans 10 )
Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings
vs. 
Arizona Cardinals (3-4) vs. Minnesota Vikings (5-1)
Sunday October 30th
1:00pm
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Minnesota Vikings -4 (-105)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
An important showdown in Minneapolis that will help mold the playoff picture in the NFC, as the Cardinals take on the Vikings. After a slow start to the season, the Cardinals have showed some poise and made adjustments to be the competitive team many people felt they would be. The Vikings boast an impressive 5-1 record, and have yet to really play their best football. Points are expected with some flashy player on offense, yet it could be the defenses that determine the winner of this game.
In what may be the most obvious visual breakdown to all of America, the Arizona Cardinals offense is a lot better with DeAndre Hopkins on the football field. More specifically, Kyler Murray just seems a lot more comfortable having the star wide receiver to go to on passing downs. It’s a shame for Cardinal fans that Hopkins returned from suspension right when Hollywood Brown was lost to injury, as these two could have really done some things in the passing game. Despite that, the offense is trending up for Arizona as they face a Vikings defense that is still figuring things out. For starters, it looks as though center Rodney Hudson will return, and running back James Conner may also be available for the Cards’. Conner is the type of physical runner that could give the Vikings trouble running between the tackles, especially with Hudson back on the interior of the line. Ultimately, the success of the Cardinals in this game is going to come down to quarterback Kyler Murray and how well he can play in the hostile environment. The Vikings have not defended the pass well all season, so Hopkins should see a lot of opportunities, and the team would also like to work speedy receivers Rondale Moore and newly acquired Robbie Anderson into the mix. Against a corner tandem that has had both schematic breakdowns and can be challenged with speed, Arizona has to hit some big plays. If you’ve followed the Cardinals the past few weeks, you’ve noticed Kyler Murray more willing to use his own athleticism and speed to make critical plays. That will absolutely need to be a factor here if the Cardinals want to upset Minnesota.
It’s not just the defense that’s underachieved a bit for the Vikings, as their offense has been a little clunky as well. We’ve seen some huge games from Justin Jefferson, clutch catches from Adam Thielen, and nice runs from Dalvin Cook, yet things still aren’t looking easy. In breaking down their game film, it’s a mixture of things, starting with subpar play from their offensive line. It hasn’t been terrible, but this group should be run-blocking better, and offering more in pass protection. They face a Cardinals defense that after a slow start has been surprisingly good in the trenches. It all starts with J.J. Watt who is not only the heartbeat of the defense, but still providing solid play on the line, as we’ve seen his peer on the opposite edge Zach Allen play some pretty solid football. The Vikings are fortunate to have this matchup in the trenches at home where noise won’t be a factor. The most encouraging news for the Cardinals is the improved play at the linebacker position as their young players who struggled early on seem to be figuring some things out and making plays. The real matchup to watch in this game is the Vikings receivers against Marco Wilson and Byron Murphy, Jr., the corners for the Cardinals. Arizona loves to play man coverage because they have great safeties that they can play in support. What will ultimately determine how much help the corners get, is how well Dalvin Cook and the Vikings are running the football. If the safeties are needed in run support, it opens up a lot of opportunities with Justin Jefferson in particular. If the Cardinals can slow down the running game with their front seven, look for a lot of cover two defense from Arizona, keeping Jefferson in front of them and forcing Kirk Cousins to check down.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cardinals are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
At first glance this seems like a home game where the Minnesota Vikings would absolutely crush this Arizona Cardinals team. Upon further evaluation, that seems a little less likely. The Vikings are a good team, and should be actually playing even better than they are. Even against inferior opponents over the previous four games, they’ve all ended up being one score games. In a couple of cases, they were very fortunate to come away with wins. Some sharp money came in on the Cardinals during the week, and it makes sense as underdogs of 4 or more points are hitting at an insane over 68% clip this season. Whether it’s playing the odds, or just believing in the difference DeAndre Hopkins makes, this just has the makings of another close game. Getting over the most key number of three is enough for us to take a shot with the road team here.
BetCrushers Take: Arizona Cardinals +4
Vikings 27, Cardinals 24
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints
vs. 
Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-5)
Sunday October 30th
1:00pm
Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Las Vegas Raiders -1 (-110)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
A pair of potentially underrated teams with two wins each on the season face off, when the Raiders battle the Saints in an interconference matchup. After some tough losses to start the season, the Raiders have found some rhythm, while the Saints have struggled to find their own consistency through a long list of injuries on both sides of the ball. While the game is important to both teams, the Raiders really need to keep up in the crowded AFC, and a loss in this game could really make their prospects of making the playoffs rough.
Even though the Raiders are the Raiders, we knew they were a better football team than their early season record showed. They seem to have some momentum heading into New Orleans as they’re running the ball well and playing better defense. Running the football will again take center stage in what suddenly is now a big advantage for Las Vegas in this contest. The attrition over the past few years on the Saints defensive line has taken its toll as this group is no longer the physical and punishing group that shut down opposing runners. In fact, they’re allowing 4.7 yards per carry to opposing runners, a number that would have been shocking just a couple seasons ago. The Raiders offense comes into the game a little banged up, but it looks as though Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams will both be able to play, and they’ll also welcome back Darren Waller at tight end. The Saints on the other hand, may be without Marshon Lattimore at cornerback, which greatly reduces what they can do defensively. Not only is the type of player that can go one-on-one with an elite player like Davante Adams, but he really dictates how much man versus zone coverage the Saints can play. Either way, another area that has troubled the Saints is a lack of a consistent pass rush. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when he’s not under pressure. With potentially inexperienced players in the Saints secondary, Dennis Allen is going to have to determine if he wants to bring extra guys to pressure Carr, leaving his corners exposed, or drop in coverage, giving Carr plenty of time to scan the field. Based on what we’ve seen so far this year, New Orleans will stay aggressive, which could lead to some big plays for the Raiders offensively.
To the surprise of some, the Saints are starting veteran quarterback Andy Dalton again, despite some ugly turnovers on prime time last week. Dalton’s matchup isn’t quite as favorable as you might imagine against an improving Raiders defense. They’ve been decent against the run, and will look to slow down Alvin Kamara, who is yet to really explode this season. The Saints offensive line has been one of the more disappointing units in the league, particularly in run-blocking. Whether they can run the ball or not, Dalton is going to have to make some throws in what should be a bit of a high-scoring game. As seems to be the case now, we’ll have to wait to see if Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry can play in this game, both not practicing mid-week yet again. When healthy, this Saints offense creates some really tough mismatches. Things just don’t click as well when you’re constantly shuffling different receivers in and out of the lineup, especially for a pocket passing quarterback like Andy Dalton. Perhaps the best things we’ve seen to date with this Saints offense is the play of tight end and do-it-all player Taysom Hill. Regardless of what you think of him or his skill set, it’s an absolute fact that this team moves the ball when he’s in the game. At some point the Saints need to lean on him even more, particularly if their veteran receivers are unable to play.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games for the Raiders
– The total has gone over in 7 of the last 8 games for the Raiders vs. the NFC
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games for the Saints
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games between the Saints and Raiders
– The Saints are allowing 28.6 points per game in 2022
If you’re a savvy bettor who believes that CLV is the only way you’ll ever want to make a wager, this bet will not be for you. The total got steamed up pretty early as it moved from 47.5 all the way up to 50 in some spots before settling in around 49. The Saints have been giving up over 34 points a game in their last 3, and the Raiders aren’t exactly elite on defense either. Playing at home, this has the makings of another big point affair for a Saints defense that is really hurting without some of their key contributors in the secondary. The Raiders should be able to move the ball on the ground, and hit some big plays. The Saints should have enough to at least put up some garbage points in the second half, even if they’re not necessarily in the game. We toyed with taking a road favorite, but rather than make that square play, we’ll make the square play of the over, despite missing the best number. Anything under 51 seems playable.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 49 Points
Raiders 31, Saints 26
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
vs. 
San Francisco 49ers (3-4) vs. Los Angeles Rams (3-3)
Sunday October 30th
4:25pm
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
San Francisco 49ers -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
Sunday features rematch of last season’s NFC Championship between the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams for a leg up in the jumbled NFC West. Injuries slowed down the start of the year for 49ers, who are now both getting healthier, and added superstar running back Christian McCaffrey. The Rams are searching for some support for Cooper Kupp on offense, and leaning on their playmakers on defense. The Niners have owned the Rams the past few seasons, despite the Rams getting the important win in the playoffs en route to their Super Bowl victory.
For all of those in the camp believing 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is an offensive wizard, we’re really about to find out. Yes, he still has Jimmy Garoppolo as his quarterback, but when you have skill position players like Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel on your roster, the sky is the limit on the type of formations and plays you can draw up. We didn’t forget about Kyle Juszczyk, however he’s probably going to miss this contest versus the Rams. With some time to prepare, let’s see how much the newly acquired McCaffrey is involved in the game plan. Our guess is he’s going to see a lot of work, and threaten the Rams in the running game and as a receiver, like they’re not used to being threatened. In his last five games in Carolina, McCaffrey was the only player in the league to top 100 scrimmage yards each game, despite playing alongside Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker, and really only D.J. Moore as a legitimate skill weapon. If the Rams elect to keep tabs on McCaffrey, that should open things way up for guys like Samuel and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. The problem we envision for the Rams in this game is really that there are simply two many weapons to cover, for a team that relies so heavily on taking away one or two players. Jalen Ramsey can hold his own against Samuel or Aiyuk for sure, but the rest of the Rams secondary is very vulnerable, and that doesn’t really even include Kittle. In terms of the pass rush, Aaron Donald is really the only player poised to be a difference-maker on the LA defense. With Trent Williams back anchoring the left side, Donald will see his usual double teams, and if he isn’t getting to Garoppolo, it’s unlikely anyone else will. If you didn’t think Jimmy G was a game manager quarterback before, just watch him on Sunday.
Sean McVay has proven he’s a good coach and a solid offensive scheming mind in the NFL. Even in what is now a passing league, he’s seeing first hand how difficult it is to generate offense without a good line and capable running game. The Rams enter the game with big problems on their offensive line. They weren’t playing well to begin with, and now will be without left tackle Joe Noteboom, further causing concern against the fierce defense of San Francisco. Before we even look at the passing game, let’s take a quick glance at what we have in the run game. The 49ers are surrendering a league-best 3.5 yards per carry, and that’s playing against some of the better running teams in the league thus far. The Rams on the other hand will enter the contest with a banged up Darrell Henderson and career backup Malcom Brown. Anything can happen on a given Sunday, but we’re going to go ahead and suggest the Rams are not going to be able to establish a running game in this one. That’s going to put a whole lot of pressure on quarterback Matthew Stafford, who has looked rattled this season and taken a beating at the position. If the Rams are forced to throw and in third and long situations, this could be an absolute feast for Nick Bosa and the Niners defense. Not only could we see a lot of punts from the Rams, there’s a real possibility of some turnovers too. For our money, Cooper Kupp is the best receiver in the league right now, but even he needs some help. It’s been said all year regarding this team, but where is Allen Robinson, or who else can step up?
Key Stats and Trends
– The 49ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the Rams
– The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road vs. the Rams
– The Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games
– The total has gone under in 6 of the last 7 games for the Rams
In sports betting, when something seems too good to be true it usually is. That’s really the only thing that worries us in this game, as the 49ers are our favorite play so far this season. Not only has San Francisco absolutely owned the Rams, they’re getting healthier, while the Rams are regressing. Homefield advantage won’t be much of an issue as at least a third, if not half of the stadium will be wearing 49er jerseys. Even though these records are similar, these are two vastly different teams headed in different directions in the second half of the season. This is a game where you can even consider a potential alternate spread if you’re willing to lay 6.5 points to get a nice return. In our estimation, this game doesn’t end up really being close at all. We’re expecting San Francisco to run away with this game at some point in the second half. This is the type of game where Matthew Stafford may want to contemplate retirement.
