Previous Week Plays – 3-1
Season Record – 18-10
Week 7 Recap:
A pretty strong showing again as not only did we hit some wins, but as importantly, our handicapping was pretty spot on. We mentioned it turned a bit “square”, but we were absolutely all in, loading up on the Packers because of the big-time mismatch they had against the Texans defense. Combined with the Aaron Rodgers bounce back and we loaded up on Green Bay. They got up early and completely routed Houston en route to an easy cover. Our other early game had the over with the Titans and Steelers and the game played out pretty much as we expected. The over total cashed with plenty of time in the contest, even though it ended up just barely over. Our second favorite wager was the team total points with the Buccaneers who did their own beatdown of the Raiders. We figured that would be the case, but decided it was a little safer to take their team total in case the Raiders offense was explosive, which it was not. Finally, we had our teaser play with the Chargers and the Bears. Los Angeles actually fell behind briefly in the third quarter despite being in control of the ballgame. They regained the lead and poured it on finishing with a comfortable 10 point win. That just left us needing the Bears to cover a 12 point spread on Monday Night Football against the Rams. Unfortunately the Bears offense wasn’t able to get anything going and their backdoor attempt at a teaser cover fell a little short. We had been on a roll with the teasers so it stings to suffer a loss, upward and onward.
Week 8 Picks:
Hard to believe that we’re basically at the halfway point of the season already. For the first time this year as we went through our handicapping, we had to add in the additional element of weather into our analysis. Heavy winds and some rain are expected in much of the country and with only one dome game this weekend, there could be some difficulty throwing the football and the potential for turnovers. With our plays, we avoided the areas that are most heavily projected to have the most severe wind issues as we want our handicapping to stay true to the players, situations and numbers. We have a normal teaser bet that features two of the league’s iconic franchises, a “square” bet taking a road favorite, and four totals, two of which are team totals. Overall, we’re more sided with the public than we’d prefer to be, but we’ll continue to pick our spots as it’s steered us well thus far in the season. Let’s hope week number eight can give us some really exciting games as we had a week ago, and also some really nice profit.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants
vs. 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2) vs. New York Giants (1-6)
Monday November 2nd
8:15pm
ESPN
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13 (-110)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
The red-hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to New York to face the NFC east opponent Giants in one of the weekend’s projected lopsided matchups. The Giants have struggled offensively without their top running back, and Daniel Jones has not taken the leap that the organization had hoped he would in his second season. The Bucs on the other hand, seem to be clicking, after a slow start with their new leader at quarterback.
Teams in the NFC have to be concerned that Tom Brady and this Buccaneers offense has seemed to get things rolling. The scariest part is it doesn’t appear that they’ve really even hit their stride or played their best yet. Add that and the fact they’re going to potentially add another gamechanging receiver in Antonio Brown and watch out. The Giants defense has played respectably this season and James Bradberry has been a true lockdown corner. The challenge that TB poses here is that Brady understands steering clear of top corners, and more importantly, has plenty of other weapons at his disposal. Bradberry will likely see a lot of Mike Evans which means Chris Godwin should get a lot of looks, and the complimentary weapons like Rob Gronkowski, who has started to come on will be keys. The best chance the Giants have to slow down TB12 and the Bucs is to get pressure in Brady’s face. New York has manufactured a pretty solid pass rush so it’s not impossible that they can slow this team down a bit as the offensive line for Tampa has been pretty up and down.
The Giants offensively really have their work cut out for them against this TB defense. It’s basically impossible to run on this team, and it’s not like the Giants are exactly breaking records running with Saquon Barkley sidelined. It’ll be tough sledding for Devonta Freeman and Wayne Gallman which puts the onus square on the shoulders of Daniel Jones to drive the offense. The Buccaneers have not been that great at getting to the quarterback, but without the threat of a running game, their defensive gameplan may change just a bit here. The Giants do have weapons at wide receiver and they need to win their matchups outside to move the chains.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Giants are averaging 17 points per game this season
– The total has gone under in 6 of the last 8 Giants games
Outside of the Chiefs/Jets contest, this would appear to be the game that has the biggest blowout potential of the weekend with a double digit spread. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising if the Bucs put a beating on this Giants team so we’d be much more inclined to lay the big number than bank on New York keeping it close. However, this Giants defense should get some credit for the effort they’re playing with each week and may be able to slow down Tampa’s potent attack. The piece we can’t imagine seeing is New York being able to get anything going offensively. This Tampa defense is tough, and severely underrated as a whole. Without being able to run the ball, Daniel Jones will be in obvious passing situations, which does not bode well for the team in the blue jerseys. Unless there is an absolute drubbing where the Bucs’ call off the dogs in the second half, it will be nearly impossible for the Giants to get into the 20’s on the scoreboard. As a team that is averaging only 17 points per game, we’re anticipating an average type performance and taking the NYG team total under in this one.
BetCrushers Take: New York Giants – Total Under 19.5
Buccaneers 28, Giants 16
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
vs. 
New England Patriots (2-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-2)
Sunday November 1st
1:00pm
CBS
Bills Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -4 (-110)
Over/Under 40 (-110)
In a weekend full of some big divisional matchups, the Patriots and Bills are quietly one of the more intriguing and important contests for several reasons. There are several big questions that should be answered at the end of this one including is the Patriots AFC East reign finally over? Can Cam Newton get back on track or is this experiment in New England going to be a short-lived project? Are the Bills ready to take the leap from a squad excited just to get into the playoffs to a team that expects to win each weekend? With an upcoming schedule that includes games against the Steelers, Seahawks, Cardinals and 49ers, this is a must-win for all intents and purposes.
It’s hard to believe that just a month ago the league was abuzz of this new era in New England headed by QB Cam Newton. Here we are now wondering if this might be his last opportunity to remain the starter on the team? If you are a Patriots fan you can be excited about the fact that no coach is better at bouncing back from really ugly losses than Bill Belichick. He’s going to put Newton in a position to be successful against a Bills defense that has really struggled this season. In fact, you could argue that no defense has underachieved or fallen off worse than Buffalo. They get bullied against the run and have struggled generating a pass rush. With New Englands offensive line healthier than it’s been the last few weeks Newton and the running game should get going a bit. The key for them is going to be cashing in once they reach the redzone and not settling for field goals. That was the positive for the Patriots offense. Now for the not so great: Julian Edelman had knee surgery and will miss some time at wide receiver as will last year’s first round pick N’Keal Harry. That leaves New England with Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd as their top targets, which is not exactly going to scare even a defense that is struggling. Look for a lot of short passes and creative plays with their veteran running backs to exploit an area where the Bills have struggled. Tremaine Edmunds has struggled in coverage at linebacker and the middle of the field has been open for running backs and tight ends. If any coaching staff can recognize this and attack it, it’s certainly this one.
The bar has been raised in Buffalo with their offensive production as fans were restless with half a dozen field goals a week ago despite the win. A year ago, a 300 yard passing game from QB Josh Allen would have been a highlight, whereas now it’s critiqued closely. Allen has had his struggles against the Patriots defense in his career, but this is simply not the same New England defense we saw a year ago. Add in the fact that cornerback Stephon Gilmore missed practice Friday and is rumored to be on the trade block and this defense could really be in some trouble. Belichick’s defenses are built around having a lockdown corner, so not having that really changes the entire dynamic of things. Even if Gilmore does play, he has not been the same shutdown player he was through most of last year, which could be why the team is willing to explore trading him. The other piece that may not matter, is that even if Gilmore were able to lock up the Bills top receiver Stefon Diggs, Allen has a lot of other weapons. Cole Beasley has been the Bills version of Julian Edelman and the running backs and tight ends have been more involved. Most importantly, the team welcomes back John Brown who has battled a knee injury the last three weeks. It’s no coincidence that his absence in the offense added to their sputters. If Diggs isn’t open, you can almost bet Brown will be. One other quiet addition the Bills will have this weekend is the return of Jon Feliciano at guard on their offensive line. Feliciano isn’t a Pro Bowl caliber player, but he brings a toughness, specifically in the running game that the team has been missing.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 5 of the Bills 7 games this season
In the final breakdown of this game it’s mostly a line value play that we’re going with on this total, which opened as high as 44.5. Between the injury report and potentially shaky weather, the total has dropped all the way down to 40, which now provides clear value on the over. The Bills kicked six field goals last weekend as their offense stalled in the red zone and they had two touchdowns called back on questionable penalties. The Patriots defense is not what it was a year ago, and could be without it’s most vital piece if Stephon Gilmore doesn’t play. Expect a rebound from what’s been a bit of a stagnant Bills offense, despite their usual struggles against Bill Belichick. Speaking of the Patriots head coach, if there is anyone in the league that can potentially get this offense and Cam Newton out of a rut it’s him and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Look for some creativity and a lot of James White and Rex Burkhead, as well as asking Cam Newton to shoulder the load, with his legs.
BetCrushers Take: Over – Total 40
Bills 27, Patriots 20
New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears
vs. 
New Orleans Saints (4-2) vs. Chicago Bears (5-2)
Sunday November 1st
4:25pm
FOX
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
New Orleans Saints -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
A big NFC matchup with one team that most people are waiting to improve in New Orleans, and another that most people believe are ready to falter in Chicago. There likely won’t be a huge variation with either team as their identities are pretty much already established. The Bears are desperate to get their offense going as the switch to Nick Foles has not given them the jolt they had hoped. The Saints are working on getting their defense back in order as they await the return of some of their key players, most notably wide receiver Michael Thomas who will miss his sixth straight contest.
Speaking of Michael Thomas, it’s starting to be a little worrisome that he can’t seem to work his way back onto the field. Although the offense is not the explosive one we’ve been accustomed to seeing for the New Orleans, it’s been pretty efficient. Drew Brees is taking what the defenses are giving him and he’s getting the ball into Alvin Kamara’s hands, which is exactly what needs to happen against the Bears. Chicago’s defense is built the same way as it was the past couple of years, which means the way to attack it is with the running game. Eddie Goldman opting out created an even bigger void in the middle of their defense. Alvin Kamara is going to need to play great, as well as Latavius Murray for the Saints to be successful with the absence of Thomas. Much as they did a week ago, utilizing Jared Cook in the redzone is also an area where they can create some matchup advantages. If you enjoy old school football, the big guys upfront for the Saints have an important task controlling the pass rush of the Bears and giving Brees the time he needs to work the middle of the field.
People in Windy City seemed certain that Mitchell Trubisky was the issue that was holding down the Chicago offense. There’s nothing to say that Trubisky is a plausible NFL quarterback, however it’s pretty clear that he certainly wasn’t the only problem spot with their offense. It all starts up front with their offensive line that just simply isn’t good enough week in and week out. The Saints have a clear advantage with their defensive line as the return of Marcus Davenport should improve the entire unit and they should be able to push their way at the line of scrimmage. The Bears have not run the ball well at all this year and that won’t change this week as David Montgomery will face a stingy 3.5 yards per carry Saints defense. In the passing game, Nick Foles is a veteran quarterback and Super Bowl MVP, but he’s not the type of quarterback that can do it all on his own. He needs time to throw and he needs guys that can get open. Normally that burden falls to wide receiver Allen Robinson II, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be able to play as he’s currently in the concussion protocol. If you’re the Bears, where are the passing yards coming from? And as you add in Montgomery, where are the yards going to come from at all?
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in the last 6 games for the Saints
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 games for the Bears
– The total has gone under in 7 of the last 8 home games for the Bears
Our initial read here was to take the under at 42.5, a play that we still really like. We ultimately decided to take only the Bears team total under as the Saints have been routinely going over. The Bears have scored more than 17 points 4 times, and under 3 times. The four teams that they broke that barrier against were the Falcons, Panthers, Lions and Buccaneers. Only the Bucs have a strong defense in that group. Against the Giants, Colts and Rams, three quality defenses, they really could not put points up or move the ball. Nick Foles certainly doesn’t look like Philadelphia hero BDN, he’s looking a lot more like journeyman QB Nick Foles behind a poor offensive line. As a side note, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Mitch Trubisky back in the lineup in this game if the offense stalls. Missing the one true offensive centerpiece weapon Chicago has in Allen Robinson II, it’s going to be really tough for this team to manufacturer offense. The Saints and Drew Brees have traditionally not been explosive in cold and grass road games so it’s unlikely against a tough Bears defense they’d blow up for a lot of points. That should guard against some garbage points late in the game for the Bears. If you like the under go for it, we’re going to take a slightly different approach and just grab the Bears under.
BetCrushers Take: Under – Bears Team Total 17.5
Saints 20, Bears 13
Los Angeles Rams vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
Los Angeles Rams (5-2) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-3)
Sunday November 1st
1:00pm
FOX
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Los Angeles Rams -3 (-120)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
A lot of eyes will be focused on the Los Angeles Rams and the Miami Dolphins as phenom rookie Tua Tagavailoa gets his first start at quarterback. The change at quarterback comes with a lot of scrutiny as the Dolphins have played really well the last month of the season and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was the catalyst. Much has already been made about the fact that Tua gets to face the friendly Aaron Donald and a tough Rams defense in his first game. Yes, it’s truly Tua Time in Miami.
Sean McVay has gotten the Rams offense going again after a stagnant 2019 season. Jared Goff hasn’t really been lighting the league on fire, yet his play has been consistent and he’s finding ways to move the ball. It helps that the team has gotten back to running the ball more effectively as the offensive line has played much better this season leading the way for an impressive Darrell Henderson. The Dolphins have been average defending the run so Henderson and the committee of Malcolm Brown and even rookie Cam Akers will do enough to keep the defense honest. The wide receivers for LA have tough matchups, but pose their own threats as it’s a more than capable group. Tyler Higbee is questionable at the tight end position and it would be big for the Rams if he can go. When he and Gerald Everett are both on the field they create some big matchup problems in the middle of the field. Look for big production from the tight end position on Sunday.
Outside of discussing whether or not it was a wise decision to put team leader Ryan Fitzpatrick on the bench, there isn’t a lot to breakdown here because we are all anxiously waiting to see how the the Dolphins offense looks with Tua. He’s supposedly been a remarkable in practice, and we know he’s not afraid of the big stage so we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt overall. He’s going to need to be good because the matchup against the Rams is a difficult one both running and throwing. The Dolphins offensive line has played decently and they’re going to need to play even better for the young QB to find success in this game. We know what Donald can do on the defensive line, but it’s the Rams secondary that really could feast if Tua is a little slow processing things in his first start. Jalen Ramsey will draw Davante Parker so it’ll fall to Mike Gisecki, Preston Williams and the rest of the offensive weapons to make plays. We’ll know a lot more about the rest of the season for the Dolphins after this game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Rams are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games
– The Dolphins are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games versus the NFC
The analytics between these two teams are actually pretty split down the middle as there are some trends that favor each team. In fact, you can argue that the Dolphins have the edge as the Rams have not beaten this team since Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk were racking up points in 2001. Shout out to @PICKSwithCLARS24 who shared this statistic that is really surprising if nothing else. It was ultimately the final push we needed to pull the trigger on locking in the Rams. Home underdogs of 3+ points coming off of Thursday Night Football or a bye are 1-19 ATS since 2016. Combine that with Tua’s first true game action in quite some time and it just seems like the Rams will get this done, putting a slight ding in the armor that has seen the Dolphins at the top of the league in covering in 2020. Note that you will want to shop this line to get it at the key number of 3, which is still available slightly juiced on a few sites.
BetCrushers Take: Los Angeles Rams -3
Rams 26, Dolphins 20
Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (5-1) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-5-1)
Sunday November 1st
1:00pm
CBS
Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Tennessee Titans -7 (-110)
Over/Under 51 (-110)
If this were 2021 we could be potentially looking at a really good football game when the Titans and Bengals square off. The difference is, the Titans are a season and a half ahead of the Bengals at this point and carry a hefty record and spread into the game opening as 7 point favorites. Joe Burrow continues to impress and no doubt has a bright career in the league. Right now it’s Ryan Tannehill who is garnering serious discussion as an MVP with his stellar play at the QB position.
It’s not just Tannehill who continues to play at a high level, this offense is clicking overall in all functions. The Bengals have done a decent job stopping the run, but that was with D.J. Reader in the lineup clogging up the middle of the line. The Titans will no doubt look to get Derrick Henry going as he looks to get back on track after a really tough matchup against the Steelers. Tannehill can get it done through the air even if Henry isn’t rumbling, but when he is, it obviously opens up this offense even more. Corey Davis is finally showing the production the team hoped they’d get from him when they drafted him in the first round four years ago. With A.J. Brown on the opposite side, the Bengals are going to have their work cut out for them slowing down this passing game. We saw what Baker Mayfield was able to do versus their secondary, and he hasn’t been anywhere near as dynamic as Tannehill has this season. He’s even performed well as one of the best versus pressure and the blitz, which he’ll need to continue as the Bengals have actually brought a lot of pressure. They’ll be without the disgruntled Carlos Dunlap on their line however as he was shipped out to Seattle. One other key player to keep an eye on is Titans tight end Johnnu Smith, who has been a virtual no-show the last two weeks after returning from ankle and knee issues. No team has given up more to opposing tight ends than the Bengals so Smith could be a bigger factor than he’s been recently.
The Bengals offense has been putting up points and yards despite their overall record. When you watch the tape, Joe Burrow has done some really impressive things leading his team. It helps that he has several really good wide receivers to throw to, which is exactly how to attack the Titans defense. Since Adoree Jackson’s injury the Titans have gotten abused in their secondary which has to be exciting for Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green and rookie Tee Higgins. They’ll all need to make plays as running back Joe Mixon will miss his second straight contest impeding any real potential of running the football. The concerning part for Burrow and the Bengals has to be that they are down three starting offensive linemen, on a line that was not the greatest to begin with. The good news for Cincinnati is the Titans have only registered 8 sacks on the season so Burrow should find enough time even with his makeshift offensive line.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Titans are averaging 31 points per game this season
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games for the Titans
– The total has gone over in 8 of the last 10 games for the Bengals
Weapons are bountiful for Joe Burrow at the wide receiver position, but the organization hasn’t done the rookie a lot of favors with his offensive line. With the running game unlikely to get going for the Bengals, Burrow is going to throw a lot this game. The youngster has proven he can beat secondarys and should be able to do that against a Titans unit that has been exposed nearly every week. When you flip to the other side of the field, the Titans are still not being given enough credit for how well their offense is playing. They are flat out getting it done on the ground and through the air and should find plenty of success against the Bengals. We’re going to ride the Titans over train for as long as we can, and against this opponent it should continue to cruise.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 51
Titans 34, Bengals 24
Teaser Bet
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Minnesota Vikings (1-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (5-1)
Sunday November 1st
1:00pm
FOX
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 50 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-0) at Baltimore Ravens (5-1)
Sunday November 1st
1:00pm
CBS
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 (-115)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Green Bay -.5 and Pittsburgh +10.5
A couple of big divisional games tee up our weekly teaser bet when the Vikings visit the Packers and the Steelers travel to face the Ravens. Even though it would appear only three of these teams will be heading towards the postseason, all four have talented players on both sides of the ball. Can the road teams pull off upsets as near touchdown underdogs?
The Vikings and Packers have played some really good back and forth battles the past few seasons and this could be another one. Minnesota is a better team than their record would show, and it’s possible Green Bay may not be quite as good as they’ve looked. However, this game centers on one very key point: Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are about as automatic as it comes when they’re playing at Lambeau Field. The Vikings have had extra time to prepare, but these teams already know each other very well, so it’s tough to think it would have that large of an impact. It’s also tough to think that the Vikings secondary is going to have a lot of answers for Davante Adams who returned with a bang last weekend. It’s also worth wondering if the Vikings will mentally be in this game as the team has already started dealing players, starting with their own recent pickup Yannick Ngakoue? The Vikings are a bit streaky in games so getting off to a good start is paramount for them and quarterback Kirk Cousins. The pass rush of the Packers could help be the difference as we know Cousins tends to struggle against good teams.
The game of the week is one of the league’s best rivalries with the Steelers and Ravens. The winner gets an early edge at the division title as is usually the case when these two teams face off. Both teams have the ability to put up points offensively and shut teams down defensively so it’s kind of difficult to predict what type of game we’re going to get. It wouldn’t be surprising if it were a 17-13 slugfest or 31-28 shootout depending on the flow of the game. Whichever direction it goes, it should be a tight contest as it almost always is when these two teams compete with each other.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Packers are 4-0 ATS as a home favorite this season
– The Packers are 8-0 straight up in their last 8 home games
– The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus the Packers
– The Steelers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog
– The Ravens are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games as a favorite
– The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 between the Steelers/Ravens
The BetCrushers absolutely love teaser bets that include elite quarterbacks which is exactly what we have with the two games here. Aaron Rodgers just doesn’t lose at Lambeau Field, and Ben Roethlisberger has consistently played very close games against the Ravens. At the end of the day we’re expecting close contests in both of these matchups, but we just can’t see the Packers losing at home to this Vikings team. The Ravens may hand the Steelers their first defeat, but it’s highly unlikely it would come in blowout fashion. Give us the two better teams, the two better quarterbacks, and the extra six points and let’s give it a shot.
