Previous Week Plays – 2-3
Season Record – 19-13-1
Week 6 Recap:
One of these weeks we’re going to win a teaser bet, and when we do we’re going to celebrate like it’s 1999. Our teaser bet leg that lost, which was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers inexplicably losing to the practice squad defense of the Steelers, pushed us to a 2-3 record for the week. Sunday started out poorly, as the Ravens gave away yet another double digit fourth quarter lead, before ultimately losing to the Giants. Things weren’t much better in the Cardinals and Seahawks game where we took a shot at an over. The teams kicked multiple first half field goals, and some really poor red zone play allowed that to never even threaten. We squeezed out a cover with the Bills as they played well grabbing an important road win against the rival Chiefs. Then carried a second win as we continued to ride the Eagles first half, as they jumped on the Cowboys early and cruised to a nice NFC East win. Not a great weekend obviously, but nothing that will crush our spirits or bankroll either.
Week 7 Picks:
Our lightest slate of the season this week as we’ve only got four tickets punched on our official card. The simple reality of week seven for the BetCrushers is that we like a lot of games, but we don’t love very many. We’re going to try yet again to get some traction with a teaser bet, which goes against a team that blew up one of our teaser bets from a couple of weeks ago. We’re also going to try to win again in the second matchup between two AFC South favorites, and we have a total in one of the defensive contests of the weekend. Finally, a wager on the Sunday Night Football contest featuring the return of a quarterback for a team that struggled in his absence.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
vs. 
Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-2)
Sunday October 23rd
1:00pm
Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN
Tennessee Titans -2.5 (-105)
Over/Under 42 (-110)
The AFC South may not be the most impressive division in the league, but it’s very competitive, particularly between the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans. The two familiar foes face each other again, with the Titans coming off of a bye, and the Colts fresh off a nice come from behind victory. The winner of this contest will not only hold the advantage in the standings, they’ll also carry some nice momentum into the second half of the season.
For all of the buzz around the poor offense which was attributed to head coach Frank Reich, the Colts really had a nice gameplan a week ago, even if it was uncharacteristic of their typical playing style. It feels like they have some momentum heading into Tennessee against a Titans defense that has found ways to be productive without a lot of sizzle. When these two teams face off, it’s always a massive battle in the trenches between the Colts offensive line and the Titans front seven. Indys offensive line has been a disappointment so far this season, but maybe getting Jonathan Taylor back into the lineup will be the boost they need to play at a higher level? The Colts will no doubt attempt to run against the Titans, however it could be the short passing game that the Colts use to move the football. Tennessee has been decent with their pass rush, if not spectacular. They’d probably be able to generate some pressure against the pocket-passing Ryan, unless the Colts continue to play the three step drop and quick pass scheme they did a week ago. Because of this, the Titans defensive line has the most pressure to perform in this game. Can they get to Ryan quickly, and bat balls down? And maybe more importantly, can they generate enough of a push to keep their linebackers clean to defend Jonathan Taylor, particularly with middle linebacker Zach Cunningham slated to miss the game?
Even though the Titans enter this game off of a bye, it doesn’t mean they’re in great shape physically for the contest. Tennessee will be down three offensive linemen from the start of the season. They’ll also be without first round draft pick Treylon Burks, making them thin at the wide receiver position. While Burks will be missed, it’s the offensive line that really seems to be the bigger issue here for Tennessee. Despite the fact they’ll be missing linebacker Shaquille Leonard again, the Colts have been pretty solid against the run. DeForest Buckner and company will look to use their advantage in the trenches to slow down Derrick Henry before he can really get started. Easier said than done, as Henry did crack 100 yards and had a 5.2 YPC in their first meeting. Henry needs to replicate that performance for the Titans to be successful. Ryan Tannehill simply doesn’t have enough talent at the skill positions to consistently move the ball. Expect a lot of cover one from the Colts, as they’ll be daring Ryan Tannehill to throw the football. As often seems to be the case when these two teams play, special teams could also play a factor in the outcome as these teams are fairly evenly matched.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. Titans
– The Colts are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 games vs. Titans
– The Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games within the AFC South
Originally we were locked in on the Titans in this spot, but sometimes opinions and research can change things. That’s exactly what happened here, as it seems like maybe the Colts have figured some things out and found a bit of a rhythm? Instead of taking a crack on either of these teams with a full game spread, we’re instead going to play a bit of a trend we’ve seen so far this season. The Titans have been a sound first half team with the exception of one game, where the Colts have really struggled in first halves, even in games they’ve won. No formal prediction from us on the winner of this game, but we will offer an official play on the first half, based on that trend. Let’s see if the extra week of rest and preparation can help get the Titans off to another fast start against an aging quarterback who had to throw the ball nearly 60 times a week ago.
BetCrushers Take: Tennessee Titans – First Half -1 (-110)
Titans 23, Colts 21 (First Half Titans 10, Colts 7)
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos
vs. 
New York Jets (4-2) vs. Denver Broncos (2-4)
Sunday October 23rd
4:05pm
Empower Field at Mile High Stadium – Denver, CO
Denver Broncos -.5 (-105)
Over/Under 38 (-110)
Before the season started you probably could have convinced people that one of these teams was 4-2 and the other was 2-4. Truthfully, most of those people would be lying if they told you they thought the Jets would be the 4-2 team and the Broncos the 2-4 squad. Things have gone pleasantly well in New York in head coach Robert Saleh’s second season, while Nathaniel Hackett is experiencing the lows of coaching in the NFL in his rookie campaign. A Broncos win would ease some of the early sting in Denver, and bring the Jets back down to reality. The real question in this ballgame is which team is going to be able to find enough offense to come away with the win?
Boasting a winning record doesn’t necessarily tell the entire story of a team, or offensive unit’s talent and production. In this case we can narrow that down to Jets starting quarterback Zach Wilson. New York is on a roll and they’ve even put some big numbers on the scoreboard, but that’s almost in spite what they’ve gotten from the 2nd year signal caller. If you’re a Jets fan, you can look at that as a real positive, or a real negative. Here’s what we do know about the Jets offense. They’re getting better than expected play from their offensive line, both in run and pass protection. They’ll need that against a Denver defense that is just inches away from being number one in DVOA according to Football Insiders. Not just in this game, really overall, the Jets have to be able to run the football. Rookie Breece Hall is providing quick dividends for the Jets as he’s running hard, and playing well as a pass catcher. He needs at least 20 carries in this game, and has to keep the chains moving for the Broncos. If this game turns into one where Wilson has to attempt a ton of passes, it won’t go well for New York. Even despite some big injuries to Randy Gregory and Ronald Darby, this Broncos team is really tough to throw on. The return of safety Justin Simmons is big for Denver as he should provide some cover in the secondary, allowing the linebackers and other safeties to play closer to the line of scrimmage. It’s also interesting to note that the Jets will not play WR Elijah Moore who requested a trade earlier in the week.
All signs point to Russell Wilson working his way through the hamstring injury he suffered and starting on Sunday. The real question that many around the league would wonder is, does that really help the Broncos offense? The Jets also hang their hats on their defense, and they could shine an even brighter spotlight on Wilson’s struggles this season. Denver is in a tough situation offensively at the moment for a few main reasons. The loss of Javonte Williams clearly impacts their ability to run the ball. The trio of Melvin Gordon, who is supposedly starting, Latavius Murray and Mike Boone is a dropoff behind what’s been a bad offensive line. That line hasn’t given Russell Wilson a lot of time to throw, and their wide receivers simply aren’t creating great separation. When you combine that with Wilson’s seeming inability to see the entire field, it’s a recipe for a lot of three and outs, which is what we’re seeing. There’s a reason why Nathaniel Hackett is taking so much heat in his first season as head coach. He’s just not putting his team in a position to be successful and overcome their areas of deficiency. It’s really tough to imagine Wilson being able to throw much in this game as the Jets other rookie, Sauce Gardner, is quickly becoming a star in the league. Perhaps Denver will need to look to one of their new tight ends for some yardage and production?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The total has stayed under in 5 of the Broncos 6 games this season
– The total has stayed under in 4 of the last 5 home games for the Broncos
If you take a look at the box score of this game when it’s over and just look at the player statistics, you’ll be able to figure out who won. If Breece Hall has a lot of carries and Zach Wilson a limited amount of throws, the Jets have the win. If it’s reversed, the Broncos are coming out on top. This seems like a game the Broncos squeak out a victory in, but there’s zero chance at this point we want to bet on Russell Wilson and Nathanial Hackett. Instead, we’ll opt for playing the total, despite the fact it’s sitting at a measly 38 point. Trends will show you that when a line is that low, it’s that low for a reason and it’s more likely to stay under than go over. First one to 20 wins… If one team gets to 20?
BetCrushers Take: Total – Under 38
Broncos 19, Jets 16
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-3)
Sunday October 23rd
8:20pm
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Miami Dolphins -7 (-115)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
The season hit a downward slope pretty rapidly for the Miami Dolphins when starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa went down with a serious head injury. He’ll make his return to the lineup needing to secure a win as touchdown favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team with quarterback questions of their own. Pittsburgh may have at least temporarily salvaged their season with a big home win against the Buccaneers last Sunday, and look to pull off a second big upset in as many weeks.
After some questions heading into the weekend, it appears rookie Kenny Pickett will be healthy enough to get the road start against the Miami Dolphins. Although Trubisky may give the Steelers a slightly better chance to win overall, in this matchup Pickett is the better options. The Dolphins secondary is pretty banged up at the corner position, and Pickett will challenge with throws down the field more than Trubisky would have. In a game that will have as many Steeler fans in attendance as Dolphin fans, the noise and road environment shouldn’t be as detrimental for the rookie. Miami will look to put a lot of pressure on Pickett in hopes of generating some turnovers, and whether or not they do will determine whether this is a close contest or ends up getting away from the Steelers. If you’re strictly looking at statistics, the Steelers actually have a fairly higher overall DVOA than the Dolphins. That’s not really indicative of who these teams really are as some things are clearly skewed. The bottom line for the Steelers on offense other than taking care of the football, is they have to be able to get some sort of push from their offensive line. That’s not going to be easy against Christian Wilkins and Raekwon Davis or the pass rushers for Miami. We seem to say this every week, yet it absolutely holds true. Despite having the weapons to win on offense, their lack of running and pass protection will hold them back.
Both Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson were able to generate sporadic offense during the absence of Tua Tagovailoa, but this offense clearly wasn’t in the same rhythm. It’s impossible to know how Tua will feel in the pocket coming off of a scary injury, but he seems like the type of player that will re-acclimate pretty quickly. The team got some good news earlier in the week as left tackle Terron Armstead looks like he’ll be good to go for the game. With Tagovailoa being a left hander, it’s the right tackle spot we may need to keep an eye on in this game. Fortunately for him, the man who would normally be occupying the defensive end across from there, T.J. Watt, won’t be lining up again in this game. The Steelers got their first win every in the Watt era with him on the sidelines, showing just how critical he is to their success. His replacement who was showing flashes of being pretty good was also last week, so they’re getting thing on the edge. When you’re playing against the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, not having a pass rush could be a real problem. The Steelers will have to rely on the interior of their defensive line and Cameron Heyward to push the pocket so their secondary can hold up. Pittsburgh has tightened up against the run a bit this year, although some of that has to do with who they’ve played and game script. Look for this to be a big Raheem Mostert game if Pittsburgh is playing soft in the secondary, which they most likely will be.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Dolphins
– The Dolphins are 8-1 straight up in their last 9 home games
Early in the week our hope was this game would get under a touchdown, which ultimately never happened. The Dolphins should be able to take care of business in the Miami sunshine against the rookie quarterback, with a team coming off of an emotional hard fought victory. Asking subpar cornerbacks to lock down elite talent two weeks in a row is tough, particularly with the boost the Dolphins should feel with the return of Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins defense could finally find itself is a good spot here, for a group that most would say has largely underachieved this season. We’re fine if they continue to underachieve here, or if they play well as we’re betting on the one thing we believe to be true. The Dolphins offense should have a productive day that leads to a fair amount of scoring.
BetCrushers Take: Miami Dolphins – Team Total – Over 24.5 Points
Dolphins 29, Steelers 20
Teaser Bet
Houston Texans vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Houston Texans (1-3-1) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)
Sunday October 23rd
4:05pm
Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
Las Vegas Raiders -7 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
Chicago Bears (2-4) vs. New England Patriots (3-3)
Monday October 24th
8:15pm
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
New England Patriots -8.5 (-115)
Over/Under 40 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Raiders -1 and Patriots -2.5
The Houston Texans have been a feisty opponent despite their unimpressive record so far in 2022. They head to Las Vegas to face a Raiders team that must get a win if they want to stay in the mix in the AFC West. In New England, the Patriots are flying high after getting some surprising offense from third string quarterback Bailey Zappe. They host the Chicago Bears, a team still searching for a bit of an identity half a dozen games into the season.
A matchup between the Texans and Raiders can only be interesting if you’re a fan of those teams, or you’re wagering on the game in some form or fashion. For the BetCrushers it’s the latter, as we’re looking at a Raiders team that should improve their mark to something a little more fitting for their talent. Las Vegas should lean on the surprisingly effective Josh Jacobs in this game as the Texans haven’t really been able to slow anyone down running the football. As is the case with most teams, the Raiders look like an unstoppable offense when they’re able to run the ball and set up their passing game. It’s a good news, bad news situations for the Raiders in their passing game, as they should have Hunter Renfroe, but probably won’t have tight end Darren Waller. The combination of Renfroe and Davante Adams should be enough to overpower the young secondary of the Texans when Derek Carr does need to throw. On the other side of the ball, the Texans have found something with rookie running back Dameon Pierce. He’s looked good and helped their offense move the sticks the last few weeks, and will again be the centerpiece of their attack. The Raiders have been good stopping the run however, so at some point Davis Mills is going to have to make some throws. Texans right tackle Tytus Howard has had some trouble with speed rushers this season, so you know DE Maxx Crosby is ready to go wild. Crosby is statistically having the best season defensively in the league, and will only improve on that in this matchup.
Justin Fields is technically not a rookie quarterback, but he might as well be. We’ve all heard the schtick of what Patriots head coach Bill Belichick does to rookie quarterbacks, particularly in home games. Fields is going to have a lot of trouble in this one as his athleticism won’t be able to get him out of enough trouble to overcome his lack of talent around him, or his inabilities to be a passing quarterback. The Bears will of course try to run the ball as much as they can with David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, but the Patriots are going to take that away, and absolutely beg Fields to have to throw the ball. Their secondary shouldn’t have too much trouble matching up with the pedestrian wide receivers for Chicago, and in fact, are probably counting on some turnovers in this game. The Bears will be at a disadvantage in the trenches on both offense and defense here, which is going to make for a long day. On offense, despite the fact none of us can guess what Belichick may do, there really is a quarterback controversy brewing in New England. Bailey Zappe has looked poised and sharp in his early starts, and the team is winning. As it stands, we still aren;t positive if it’s Zappe of Mac Jones who will get the start in this game. Regardless of what happens down the stretch, either quarterback should be fine in a game against a Bears defense that is basically in a rebuilding mode. For starters, New England should be able to run the ball with Rhamondre Stevenson and the return of Damien Harris against a soft defensive front. In a game where the Bears defense could get worn down physically, they very well could pack it up early if their offense isn’t sustaining drives or putting up points. Chicago may not be as bad as we’re suggesting, and the Patriots probably aren’t as great as they’re currently playing, but this one is a clear mismatch.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Texans are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Raiders are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Bears are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 games
– The Bears are 1-6 straight up in their last 7 road games
– The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the NFC
We were burned by the Texans just a couple of weeks ago, yet we’re not afraid to play close to the fire again. There probably isn’t a ton separating the Raiders and Texans, but this is a game on the schedule the Raiders have to win. They’ve got enough on offense and defense to beat a team that is going nowhere this season. The other game, probably isn’t going to be close, but playing it to just need a FG seems like a free teaser leg. If the first leg cashes with the Raiders, we’ll have already mentally chalked the second leg up as a win.
