Previous Week Plays – 4-0
Season Record – 15-9
Week 6 Recap:
A nice rebound in week six as we stuck with our plays despite some external noise regarding the squareness of our selected plays. We knew they weren’t necessarily sharp, but really liked the potential matchups and rode them to victory. The most fortunate win happened when the Titans rode Derrick Henry to an overtime win and cover in a game that looked like a winner, then a loser, then a winner again. The Steelers cruised to a win in their beatdown of the Browns, and the Chiefs handled the Bills in a game that really wasn’t as close as the score may have indicated. Another teaser win again as we’ve been perfect on our teasers since going 0-2 in week number one. The only thing we hate about this past weekend is we didn’t post the fifth play that we planned to (the Over in ATL/MIN) which would have been an additional win. Ah well, our perfect 4-0 weekend improves our mark to 15-9 as we head back to the lab to whip up some winning combinations in week seven.
Week 7 Picks:
Much like the year 2020 in itself, the 2020 NFL season has had no shortage of strangeness through the first half dozen weekends. We’ve navigated things pretty well and are working hard to adjust our strategies with the ever-changing times. Part of that flexibility includes picking spots to side with the public on some square bets. There was a time when laying double-digit points was an absolute sucker play. Giving points on the road was the ultimate no-no in football betting. It’s just simply not that cut and dry in the game today and picking the right spots is a part of making the correct wagers. We’ve got a couple of trendy plays this week that we feel great with, despite the fact that many “seasoned” bettors will disagree with. Use your best judgement on tailing, but we’re feeling good heading into these wagers and hope to continue the nice start we’ve had to this season.
Green Bay Packers vs. Houston Texans
vs. 
Green Bay Packers (4-1) vs. Houston Texans (1-5)
Sunday October 25th
1:00pm
FOX
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Green Bay Packers -3 (-120)
Over/Under 57 (-110)
Two teams coming off of defeats take the field together as the Packers are on the road in Houston. The Texans look to rebound from a heartbreaking loss to the Titans and are hoping to build on some recent offensive success, as the Packers look to get back on a roll after a serious stumble against Tampa Bay.
You may have been surprised by the poor performance of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but you really shouldn’t be. It’s not meant to sound condescending, it’s just a reality that this team every once in a while just has a really pathetic showing. (See last season’s game versus the Chargers after they had been on a roll). Predicting when that game happens is tough, yet predicting what happens after that isn’t as difficult. Aaron Rodgers and this team are absolute kings of bouncing back after a bad loss. They get a shot at a Texans team that has been playing better since the firing of Bill O’ Brien with a 1-1 mark. This is a mismatch on both sides of the ball as Rodgers should have his way offensively against a defense that has been really bad all season long. For Houston, they simply don’t have the talent to lock teams down as they’ve struggled in most facets defensively. The Texans have gotten bullied against the run and the Packers will look to continue that trend. We had Aaron Jones listed as our fantasy star of the week, although he tweaked his calf in practice so it might be more of a running back by committee approach with Jamaal Williams and rookie A.J. Dillon. GB welcomed back their number one receiver Davante Adams last week and he got some good work in reconnecting with Rodgers. Look for a big day from Adams in addition to Rodgers new favorite weapon, tight end Robert Tonyan. He’s technically listed as questionable and is expected to play. If there is a concern this week, it’s that the team will be missing their star left tackle David Bakhtiari and that truly is a blow. Despite this, the Pack’ should be able to score when needed on this defense and 30+ points should be expected with Rodgers jumping back into the MVP conversation.
This Houston offense has been playing better the last few weeks and keeping them competitive in games. They get a little bit of a break as the Packer defense is also banged up and will be missing safety Darnell Savage and corner Kevin King. Green Bay has done a nice job under defensive coordinator Mike Pettine of not allowing a lot of deep plays. This is key against a Texans team that has speed on the outside with Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller V. If they can contain them, the Texans are going to have problems scoring points in this spot. The Packers can be a little susceptible to the run, however Houston has not been able to get David Johnson going at all behind an offensive line that has really not played well. We suspect they won’t be able to establish the run here either, so look for a lot of throws from Watson, and potentially a big mistake or two.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Packers are 10-0 ATS after coming off of an ATS loss
– The Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog
This would have been a mildly square bet a week ago and we actually bet it prior to the Packers loss to the Buccaneers. It’s trendy to back Aaron Rodgers to bounce back because he’s darn good at doing just that. It’s now become a very square bet, and we absolutely don’t care. Need some more proof, check out the key trends above as GB is an incredble 10-0 ATS after their last 10 ATS losses and the Texans stink against good teams ATS. The simple truth of this game is, its a matchup nightmare for the Texans and we’re going to see the difference between a good football team and a bad football team.
BetCrushers Take: Green Bay Packers -3
Packers 33, Texans 24
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans
vs. 
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0) vs. Tennessee Titans (5-0)
Sunday October 25th
1:00pm
CBS
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Pittsburgh Steelers +1 (-110)
Over/Under 50.5 (-110)
Assuming we don’t end in a tie on Sunday, one of these two teams will suffer its first loss when the Steelers travel to Nashville to take on the Titans. Both teams are known for physical defense, yet it could be the offenses, and in particular the passing games that are on display. The weekend has a nice slate of good ballgames, but this should be the matchup of the week.
We knew Ben Roethlisberger was a key to the season for the Steelers and it’s a fair question to wonder what last season would have looked like for them had he played? We asked that last week as well, but it’s fair to repeat it. We’d likely have seen a lot of what we’re seeing now, which is an effective play action passing game, some key third down conversions, and good play in the red zone. That’s exactly what the Steelers will look to do in this game against Tennessee. One thing is for sure and that is the Steelers will need Big Ben to play really well as they’ll likely be throwing a bunch here. Mike Tomlin wants to get James Conner going, but the Titans have been playing pretty well recently against the run. They’ve struggled in their secondary without Adoree Jackson and the Steelers have the options at wideout to exploit them. One of the fun pieces of this Pittsburgh offense is watching which player is going to be the breakout guy for the weekend. We’ve seen a different player nearly every week, which makes gameplanning for that tough on defensive coordinators. Who will Mike Vrabel and staff look to take away on this very balanced offense? More interestingly, who will step up for the Steelers and be a star?
It’s absolutely no secret what the Tennessee Titans want to do on offense. Their final play of the game in overtime was Derrick Henry lined up in shotgun, basically telling the Texans what they were going to do. The problem is, even if you know Henry is coming, it doesn’t mean you can stop him. They’ll do their best to pound away at the Steelers defensive front to see if they can continue that success. If any team in the league can take Henry away it’s the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are flat out tough against opposing running backs. The team did suffer a critical loss when their young and improving star linebacker Devin Bush was lost for the season to injury. How they’ll adapt to this will be a key not only in this game, but for the remainder of the season. Because no one has really proven then can sustain offense running the football, it will turn to Ryan Tannehill to continue his “I’ll show you” type of play that has him legitimately in conversations as a top five type quarterback in the league. Yes, it sounds crazy, but it’s definitely true, at least through six weeks of the season. Tannehill is thrilled to have back the talented A.J. Brown and his favorite slot target Adam Humphries back and it’s showing. The way to attack the Steelers is at their corners so plan to see a lot of Brown and Corey Davis. One other thing to keep an eye on is how Tannehill’s protection holds up against Bud Dupree and T.J. Watt as the Titans will be without their left tackle Taylor Lewan who was also lost for the season with a torn ACL.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Over is 8-1 in the Titans last 9 home games
– The Over is 7-1 in the last 8 games between the Steelers and Titans
If you were handicapping this game simply on reputation you’d expect a 20-17 slugfest between two coaches that preach toughness and defense. Realistically, that’s not who these teams are, specifically the Tennessee Titans who have been an over machine going back to the second half of last season. The Steelers defense is legit and should do the job against Derrick Henry, it’s the passing game of the Titans that will find success. Combine that with a determined Steelers team in a game that should be close and there should be some big strike plays and scoring
BetCrushers Take: Over – Total 50.5
Titans 29, Steelers 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
vs. 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (3-2)
Sunday October 25th
4:05pm
FOX
Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 (-110)
Over/Under 52.5 (-110)
There isn’t much Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady hasn’t done in his career, but he’ll have a new notch as he plays his first game in Las Vegas against the Raiders. Vegas has proven they can win big games and they’ll get the spotlight on them against Brady in what could end up being a really fun game.
After a slow start, it really feels like this Tampa Bay offense is finding it’s way as Bruce Arians and Tom Brady are learning each other and finding synergy with new players. Perhaps the most important driving factor in this is the emergence of Ronald Jones II in a crowded backfield emerging as a legitimate number one running back. It’ll be interesting to see if Arians continues to feed the red-hot Jones, or he goes back to splitting up carries with Leonard Fournette back in the mix. A big part of the offense as well is the improved play of the offensive line. They’re moving the line of scrimmage in that run game and while they haven’t been great in pass protection they’ve been pretty good, and certainly good enough when it counts. The Raiders secondary has been abused a lot this season and they’ll be minus their best safety in Johnathan Abram who’s been ruled out. This sets things up nicely as Brady should have plenty of holes to exploit with his talented wideouts and maybe even Rob Gronkowski who finally showed some flash against the Packers.
The Raiders very well could light it up offensively as well as they’ve shown the ability to do. It’s definitely a bigger question mark for them however as their offense starts with running back Josh Jacobs. The Bucs have been downright nasty again this season stopping running backs and even with the loss of Vita Vea they completely shut the Packers down a week ago. If they can’t move the sticks it’s going to put a lot of pressure on Carr to make throws in the passing game. Darren Waller could have a big game, although he’s been quieted at times as well. The plus side for Las Vegas is they’re getting healthier at the wideout position as Henry Ruggs III looks like the real deal and will likely be a star in this league if he can continue to improve. The concern for the Raiders is the missing pieces on their offensive line as they could have trouble slowing down the front seven of the Bucs. Can Jon Gruden continue to prove the doubters wrong in such a tough matchup?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Buccaneers are averaging 30 points per game in 2020
– The total has gone over in 15 of the last 19 games for the Buccaneers
This is another potential square bet as the Buccaneers should win and cover this one. Rather than rolling dice with that against a Raiders team that has proven they can beat good teams as they did against the Chiefs, we wanted to go a different direction. The Bucs just signed Antonio Brown who won’t be playing in this game. What’s incredible about that is their offense is cruising without him despite the injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Raiders may make another statement, but if they do it’s going to require an offensive explosion against a tough TB defense. Either way, their defense is not playing well and will be without Abram. With a team total of 27.5, we’re going to bank on Brady and the Bucs going over that. It seems like whether Tampa wins or loses, covers or doesn’t, they should score 30 or more points.
BetCrushers Take: Buccaneers – Over Team Total 27.5
Buccaneers 34, Raiders 28
Teaser Bet
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (1-4)
Sunday October 25th
4:25pm
CBS
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Los Angeles Chargers -7.5 (-105)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
Chicago Bears (5-1) at Los Angeles Rams (4-2)
Sunday October 25th
8:15pm
ESPN
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Los Angeles Rams -6 (-110)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Los Angeles -1.5 and Chicago +12
Back to back games at SoFi stadium and we’re involved with both, backing the home team in the first, and the road team in the second. The Chargers are excited with rookie quarterback Justin Herbert’s strong play and hope he can continue against what’s been an awful Jaguars defense. The Bears try to improve on their surprising 5-1 record as they face a hungry Rams team coming off of a tough divisional loss one week ago.
The Chargers are once again suffering from some key injuries and tough losses, however hope is not lost as it seems like they’ve landed their QB of the future. He has a dream matchup against a defense that has been dreadful and will be without one of it’s best players in linebacker Myles Jack. Even without Austin Ekeler this team should be able to run with rookie Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson. More importantly, the Jaguars cannot defend the pass at all, which makes Herbert a huge play this weekend. Offensively, Jacksonville has shown some flashes offensively, but have been way too inconsistent to challenge teams. Their offensive line is not good enough to matchup against the Chargers who welcome back Melvin Ingram who has missed the past 4 games. Gardner Minshew is doing his best, and his skill position players have been game, but the line play and mistakes simply don’t allow them to sustain drives throughout games, something that will hurt them here as well..
The primetime affair with the Bears and Rams may not be the most exciting game based on the Bears style of play, but it should be a decent one, and is definitely an important one. Both of these teams could be classified as really average good teams, or really awesome average teams. Yeah, we don’t get them either. The Bears offense is always easy to analyze with Nick Foles at quarterback. They’re going to run the ball with mediocrity and try to hit some key plays when necessary. Foles has either looked like the best player or worst player in the league depending upon how he’s playing. If he can play good football in this game, the Bears will be in a really good spot. If he struggles, the Rams have enough disrupters on the defensive side of the ball, namely Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, that it could be an issue. The fun part of this game is when the Rams are offense as it’ll be strength on strength against the Bears defense. How creative will Sean McVay be in this game? Going head to head doesn’t seem like the best approach against this team so how McVay can get his players open with things like misdirection will be important to their success. This offense basically goes as Jared Goff goes and he’ll have his work cut out for him against this Chicago defensive front. All quarterbacks are better when they’re not constantly under pressure, but for Goff this is more exaggerated. When has time to throw he is an elite level quarterback. When he’s under heavy duress he struggles as much as any signal caller in the league. Other than which version of Nick Foles we get here, the other key factor will be how well the Rams can block up Khalil Mack and company, determining how Goff will perform.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Jaguars are 1-6 straight up in their last 7 road games
– The Jaguars are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs the Chargers
– The Bears are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 road games
– The Bears are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs the Rams
The most difficult decision we had with this two team teaser was whether or not we should play the teams we are siding with solo against the spread. The Chargers, despite their poor record should cruise past a defeated and overmatched Jaguar team. The Rams deserve to be the favorite in their game, but the Bears defense is still strong enough to keep them competitive in any game. The Rams have been a bit up and down, and while they should figure out a way to get the win, this certainly has the feel of a one score ballgame. If primetime Nick Foles can play well the Bears could come away with the upset. We’re using the standard math with the Chargers getting below the key number of 3 and taking a dozen points with one of the league’s toughest defenses.
