Previous Week Plays – 3-3
Season Record – 7-13
Week 5 Recap:
Our frustrating season continued last Sunday as we screeched out a 3-3 record, not making up the ground we need to be making up at this point in the year. Our reads were mostly correct (one bad miss), but luck was not on our side to assist us in a winning weekend that was badly needed. Let’s do the positives first. The Vikings and Jets game went just to what we expected as the Minnesota defense frustrated Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. The Packers took care of business against a feisty Rams team in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicated. The Broncos also handled the Raiders pretty easily as expected. The losses started with the double-dip in that game, as the total we played under, was busted open by a surprising flurry of offense from the Denver offense. The toughest loss of the weekend was not hitting the 49ers team total over 28.5 points. The 49ers had 23 points with nearly a half of football left to play. Unfortunately, having lost their kicker to an injury, they had to pass on a chip shot field goal in the third quarter, and had to play for a touchdown in the fourth quarter as well. We also had the 49ers in a teaser, but that would prove not to matter as the Seahawks couldn’t handle business against the New York Giants at home. That was not a loss we saw coming in the least.
Week 6 Picks:
Alright, we’re sticking to our word and skipping any semblance of a teaser bet for at least a week. We’ve got just a couple of totals in play and a couple of sides for week six. Let’s hope we win some bets or we may have to skip every form of betting moving forward. OK, that’s never going to happen, but we are fairly desperate for a winning weekend. Good luck everyone!
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
vs. 
Houston Texans (4-1) vs. New England Patriots (1-4)
Sunday October 13th
1:00pm
Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, MA
Houston Texans -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 37.5 (-110)
The Drake Maye era begins in New England as the Patriots welcome in the 4-1 Houston Texans. Last year’s rookie phenom C.J. Stroud continues to find ways to win, as the Texans enter the game as near touchdown favorites. It’s a tough assignment to make your first career start against a physical defense like the Texans, let’s see if Maye is up for the challenge?
The Houston Texans offense still looks solid on paper, however they’re missing perhaps their two most important weapons, as it looks like WR Nico Collins and RB Joe Mixon will miss this contest. It’s important to note, as they haven’t run the ball particularly well since Mixon went down, and they essentially stalled out when Collins left the game last week against the Bills. They’ve had a week to figure out how to adapt, but you can’t simply replace players like Collins and Mixon and expect to not skip a beat. The Patriots defense has played hard all season for new head coach Jerod Mayo, and they should be fired up at home and in support of their new quarterback. The Texans offensive line has been fine, but they may be the key to victory in this game. They’ll need to play a solid game against a New England defense that is actually pretty good when they’re in ballgames. The somewhat forgotten player for Houston in this game could be tight end Dalton Schultz. He’s been quiet to start the season, but emerged in the second half last week in the absence of Collins. The Patriots have historically not done great with opposing tight ends, so keep an eye on Schultz.
What will we get with Drake Maye and the Patriots offense on Sunday? For starters, we may not get running back Rhamondre Stevenson who is a legitimate questionable to go in this contest. Not having the power running back would be less than ideal if New England can’t run the football consistently. The Texans have not been great at stopping the run, and you know the Patriots want to give Maye as much help as they can in that realm. The Key for New England really is to keep this game close, so they can stay balanced. If they get into a situation where they are in constant drop back and throw mode, it could get ugly. The Texans pass rush can be fierce with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, Jr. and their secondary is aggressive and opportunistic. A challenge all season for the Patriots is how they can win at the skill positions? Even if Maye can read a defense and make the right throw, can anyone get open and help him?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Texans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 games for the Texans
– The total has gone under in 4 of the last 6 games for the Patriots
It’s always hard to handicap a game with a new starting quarterback, particularly one making their first start ever. What we do know is the Patriots are very limited offensively, no matter who is playing quarterback. I mean seriously, could even Tom Brady make it work with this hodgepodge of weapons? With that being said, are we sure the Texans are going to put up 30 points in this game? They’re on the road, without their best weapon against a pretty good defense that will be playing hard for their new quarterback. If New England can keep this close early, this game could end up being closer than many people think. With that being said, we simply can’t back this Patriots team. Instead, we’re going to go below a pretty low under bar, and think that this game sees a fair amount of punts back and forth. Oh, and we’ll be crossing our fingers that Drake Maye doesn’t speed up the Texans scoring with some pick six type things. Let’s sweat out this under and see if the total can hold.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Under 37.5
Texans 20, Patriots 13
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys
vs.
Detroit Lions (3-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-2)
Sunday October 13th
4:25pm
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Detroit Lions -3 (-115)
Over/Under 51.5 (-110)
The Detroit Lions make a journey to Jerryworld to face the Dallas Cowboys on the heel of an exciting last second finish in week five. Detroit is well rested after their bye week and looking to go on a run that can get them to the top of the NFC North. The Cowboys enter the contest pretty banged up and needing a bye week of their own.
The offense for the Lions poses so many problems for opposing defenses because they really have very little weakness overall. Normally, the Cowboys defense could be considered “solid” because they also don’t have a lot of weakness to their unit either. While not dominant, they can do everything pretty well, when healthy. The problem them have facing the Lions is, they’re not healthy without their top player, Micah Parsons. Because the Lions run the ball so well, and you can expect a heavy dose as always of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, it’s going to strain the way Dallas wants to play defense. They’ll be forced to get up in the box, which is going to leave some room for the receivers of the Lions. The way to combat that, is to get a quick pass rush to disrupt Jared Goff, and potentially force some negative plays. Without Parsons, and Demarcus Lawrence, that pass rush will be greatly weakened, which will allow Goff to be comfortable in the pocket. With a consistent running game, and Goff protecting the football, the Lions could be on their way to putting a lot of points on the scoreboard and controlling the time of possessions.
One of the other reasons the Lions may control the time of possession is because the Cowboys struggle with running the football on their end. Ezekiel Elliott is wondering why he isn’t getting touches, but honestly it doesn’t matter if it’s Rico Dowdle or anyone else, they’re not going to be able to run on the Lions front. That’s partially because it’s a really good front seven, but also because it’s a very average offensive line for Dallas. As usual, the weight of the offense is going to fall on Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, and the passing game. Enter problem number two, the pass rush for the Lions. Right now Aidan Hutchinson is playing at an All-Pro level, and the offensive tackles for the Cowboys are playing at the opposite of that level. Prescott can and will make some quick reads and throws, but he will realistically need to be perfect to put points up on their drives offensively. The other point to note, is even though the Cowboys have a mega weapon with Brandon Aubrey as their kicker, this is a game that is going to require touchdowns to win, not sixty yard field goals.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games
– The Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC opponents
It’s still scary to bet against the Cowboys at home, especially as underdogs. That streak they had going though was a little different team. The Lions can focus on containing CeeDee Lamb, and making it to where Dallas really has to play a perfect game on offense to win. That’s assuming they can find enough stops on defense. At the end of the day, the Lions are a Super Bowl tier contender, while the Cowboys are the usual Wild-Card tier contender. Off of a bye with a better and healthier team that is also better coached, we’ll lay the road chalk.
BetCrushers Take: Detroit Lions -3
Lions 29, Cowboys 24
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (3-2) vs. New York Jets (2-3)
Monday October 14th
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
The Buffalo Bills are playing their third straight away game against a quality opponent, while searching for their first win on the road trip. They’ll take on a New York Jets team that surprisingly ousted head coach Robert Saleh after a 2-3 start to the season. Is a coaching change the formula to getting the Jets on track?
The pickens’ are slim for the Buffalo Bills offense with how they can attack a tough New York Jets defense on Monday night. The Bills will be without their bellcow running back James Cook, and their top wideout Khalil Shakir. Additionally, they have some guys fighting through injuries, who probably aren’t anywhere near 100% ready to go. That’s not good for quarterback Josh Allen, who has been contained better by the New York Jets defense, than really any other defense in the entire league throughout his career. Allen has taken a beating the last two weeks, as his offensive line has not been great in pass protection. The Jets have made Allen look a little skittish on more than one occasion, so if they get early pressure on the QB, it could get ugly. The bigger problem is the Bills simply don’t have any receivers who can consistently separate or win down the field. They were able to mask that early in the season against weaker opponents with a bit of a power running game, but that’s unlikely to work against the Jets defense. How will rookie Keon Coleman, and a rotation of Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling be able to get open against D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner?
It certainly seems like Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers got his way, as his guys remain in the building after the departure of Robert Saleh. The play-calling is apparently switching from Nathaniel Hackett over to Todd Downing, and one has to wonder what that will do? On the one hand Hackett was pretty notably a horrible offensive coordinator, but on the other, Downing was never really lighting the league on fire in his past either. What we may get is more of Aaron Rodgers working through things at the line of scrimmage. Much like Allen has struggled against the Jets, Rodgers has had a bit of a tough time against the Bills during his career as well. Where the Jets should be able to attack the Bills however, is with their running game, which has been a huge disappointment up to this point of the season. The Bills continue to play their funnel defense, which will dare the Jets to run against the front four. The problem for Buffalo is, they haven’t been able to stop running backs when they do this, and will be without defensive tackle Ed Oliver in their rotation. The Jets should find success in the middle of the field both running the ball, and working the short routes in the passing game. They’ll probably have to focus there, as the Bills cornerbacks have been playing really well and should be able to stop the Garrett Wilson breakout after just one monster game. The Jets also got some good news when right tackle Morgan Moses was cleared to play. With Von Miller suspended, the Bills got very little pressure a week ago. They’ll need Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa to get Rodgers uncomfortable if they want to win this game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bills are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games
– The total has gone under in the last 5 games between the Jets and Bills
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 road games for the Bills
A lot is often made about the first game boost when a coach is replaced mid-season, but there really isn’t a lot there in terms of the spread. Over the last twenty years, those teams have only covered at around 51% of the time, so it’s certainly not a guarantee. With that being said, this play is really all about the matchups here. The Bills offense simply does not have enough firepower to go against a defense like the Jets. With a backup running back, and an inability to throw, the pressure is going to be all over Josh Allen. The Bills QB hasn’t tossed a pick yet this season, but he’s going to probably revert to an attempted Superman performance here. Without the help needed, it could be a long day for Allen and the offense. The Bills defense can probably keep them hanging around, but look for a huge time of possession edge for New York here. Maybe after what we witness Monday evening, the Bills can get a deal done for Davante Adams? For now, it’s a fade.
BetCrushers Take: New York Jets +2.5 / Total – Under 41
Jets 20, Bills 17
