Previous Week Plays – 2-3-1
Season Record – 17-10-1
Week 5 Recap:
We made it to week number five before suffering our first losing slate (although we technically chopped up some juice in week three with a 3-3 mark). A combination of taking a swing on an unreliable team, and some poor coaching in another contest really doomed our chances. Sunday started off horribly as the Packers were upset in London, which busted our first teaser before it really ever got started. You could probably consider it good news that the second leg also got blown up getting that out of the way, except we also had the Jaguars team total in that matchup. The Jaguars had 5 trips into the red zone, but came away with a whopping total of 6 points, which is obviously a death sentence for a team’s over. We did get on track with the late games a,s the Cowboys not only covered, but beat the Rams outright. The Eagles continued their first half dominance with yet another first half cover, albeit it a dicey one at the end of the half. Our other teaser ended up as a push as the Vikings held serve at home against the Bears, while the Chiefs pushed their -1 against a feisty Raiders team. The real deciding game between a plus and minus weekend was the matchup between the Bengals and Ravens on Sunday Night Football. The Bengals were stonewalled despite having a first and goal from the four yard line of the Ravens, which doomed their team total we had taken the over on. That in itself wouldn’t have been so frustrating, had they not selected a few really perplexing play calls on that drive. A win is a win, a loss is a loss, when it comes to dollars and cents.
Week 6 Picks:
Five bets this Sunday, featuring an attempt at a cover for the third straight week with one of our picks. We’re a little chalky with some road favorites, but the numbers and matchups simply don’t seem to add up. We scaled back to one teaser this week as we continue to take losses in what we’ve always considered our bread and butter. Not a ton of line movement this week, so most of this games are very playable.
Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) vs. New York Giants (4-1)
Sunday October 16th
1:00pm
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
Baltimore Ravens -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
The New York Giants return home after a big win in London, to face the Baltimore Ravens in a game that boasts two teams with winning records. Brian Daboll has earned lofty praise in his first season with the Giants, while on the opposite sideline John Harbaugh has taken some criticism for his decision-making in 2022. The Giants want to prove their 4-1 record is not a fluke, while the Ravens are in search of grabbing their fourth win of the season.
There’s some good news in Baltimore for their offense as they were able to insert left tackle Ronnie Stanley back into the lineup a week ago. Stanley isn’t the only component to return to the offense, as starting running back J.K. Dobbins has also returned, providing a bit of a spark in the running game. That ground game will be on display, headlined of course by quarterback Lamar Jackson against a Giants team allowing over 5 yards per carry. New York should get defensive lineman Leonard Williams back which will absolutely help. It’s the linebackers for the Giants that really need to play well to keep Jackson contained and in the pocket. They do have an athletic group, which has been pleasantly and surprisingly headlined by Jaylon Smith, who is playing really solid football. As long as Adoree Jackson is healthy and in the lineup, they can also play man coverage and bring their safeties up to support the run, specifically if WR Rashod Bateman can’t go. Mark Andrews may need to provide even more than he normally does in the passing game, not just to move the chains, but down the field as well. The biggest question in this game, which is often the case with the Ravens, is whether or not the Giants can keep Jackson contained?
This certainly wouldn’t have been the case a season ago, but really the question on the other side of the ball is, can the Ravens stop the running game of the New York Giants? Saquon Barkley is making his case for comeback player of the year as he’s running hard behind an improved offensive line. Baltimore on the other hand, has really struggled controlling the line of scrimmage, and can be surprisingly soft stopping the run. As well as Barkley has played thus far, he could be in line for his heaviest workload to date. The Giants are still thin at wide receiver, and the Ravens are going to have no choice but to leave cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters singled up in coverage. We’ve seen quarterback Daniel Jones use his legs, and he will have some opportunities in this game to do that because of the man coverage the Ravens are likely to play. We could dig in more specifically with individual players, but the formula for the Giants in this game is a three-legged approach to success. Take care of the football, run the ball effectively, and score touchdowns in the red zone. That’s a pretty generic formula that will generally hold true for most teams in any game, but in this specific matchup, this truly is what needs to happen for the Giants to get a win.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the AFC
– The Ravens are 13-2 straight up in their last 15 games vs. the NFC
Regardless of how this game or really the season turns out for the New York Giants, they’ve got to be excited about head coach Brian Daboll. He has this team focused and believing they can win. They still have a lot of question marks over the next year or two, but for right now they’re just trying to win football games. Maybe we’re just in the camp of “this isn’t a very good 4-1 football team”, but we’re simply not believers just yet. The Ravens have had their own issues, but this feels like a spot where Lamar Jackson can play well, and the Ravens can re-establish themselves as contenders in the AFC. To be honest, the play here on the Ravens is not a lot more than the AFC being a superior conference, and the recent trends of these teams in interconference play. The Ravens are legitimately a top 6 or 7 team in the league, despite the issues they’ve had, while we’ve got the Giants near the middle of the pack, at best. It’s interesting that in various power rankings you can find the Giants as high as 7th, and as low as 24th. Records aren’t always great indicators, and the Ravens have played well on the road. Anything less than a TD and we’re going to give this Ravens bet a shot, and hope that their defense can contain Saquon Barkley.
BetCrushers Take: Baltimore Ravens -5.5
Ravens 27, Giants 20
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
vs. 
Arizona Cardinals (2-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (2-3)
Sunday October 16th
4:05pm
Lumen Field – Seattle, WA
Arizona Cardinals -2.5 (-105)
Over/Under 50.5 (-110)
For all of those people that felt the Rams and 49ers would run away with the NFC West, the Cardinals and Seahawks rest just a game back of the division lead. The winner of this matchup will keep pace in the division, while the loser will find themselves in the basement after six weeks. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have the reputation of being a high-scoring and exciting offense, but it’s Geno Smith and the Seahawks that have been putting up big numbers. Expect some fireworks in Seattle as these defenses could continue to struggle.
The Arizona Cardinals have been inconsistent at best on the offensive side of the football. They got some things going last week against a good defense, which should provide some momentum heading into their matchup with the Seahawks. Perhaps the best news of all for Arizona, is that the Seahawks should offer less resistance than the Eagles with their leaky defense. The 12th man should provide a little help for the Hawks, but overall this is just not a very good unit. They really don’t do anything particularly well, which allows differing offensive schemes to be successful against them. Kyler Murray has had success against the Seahawks the past two seasons, both throwing the football and running it. He won’t have DeAndre Hopkins for one more contest, but his connection with Marquise Brown should be sound against a struggling secondary. Keep a close eye on the left side of the offensive line, as D.J. Humphries and Justin Pugh are both “iffy” to play in this contest. Couple that with a questionable designation for running back James Conner, and there could be some added pressure on Murray to make plays.
One of the most surprising players of the season has to be Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith. Head coach Pete Carroll took some heat for naming the veteran as his starter, but clearly what he saw in the preseason and training camp is translating to the regular season. Smith looks to stay hot against the Cardinals, and much like Murray, has some nice matchups of his own. The Cardinals have not done a great job generating pressure and sacks, which should allow Smith to be comfortable in the pocket. With time, we know that both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett can get open and make plays. Cardinals cornerbacks Byron Murphy, Jr. and Marco Wilson have their hands full, so expect defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to offer some safety help in coverage. Seattle will need to take advantage with the run game, and that now falls primarily to Kenneth Walker with Rashaad Penny sidelined for the season. After a slow start, the Seahawks offensive line has cranked things up, and if they can control a less than formidable defensive line of the Cardinals, they should continue to roll.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 8 games for the Seahawks
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 home games for the Seahawks
– The Cardinals are 10-2 in their last 12 road games
This is a really important early season game for both of these teams if they want to push towards a division title or a wild card berth. This seems like a coin-flip type of game as far as the side goes, so if you’re betting that, you may just want to take the Seahawks on the moneyline. We’re focused in on the total though, as the Seahawks are the biggest “over” team in the league. Their offense is playing well, and their defense can’t really seem to stop anyone. Couple that with the fact the Cardinals have played better offensively on the road than they have at home going back to last season, and there should be some scoring in this one. The weather looks perfect in Seattle Sunday, so despite the league being down across the board in scoring, we’ll give the over a shot here.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 50.5
Seahawks 31, Cardinals 24
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (4-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)
Sunday October 16th
4:25pm
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 54 (-110)
Not sure how this contest between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs didn’t make it onto primetime, but the late window on CBS should be must see TV for NFL fans. After a heartbreaking loss in the playoffs in 2021, the Bills have revenge on their mind in their quest to gain supremacy in the AFC. For the first time in his career Patrick Mahomes is an underdog at home as the Bills opened as 2 point favorites and have moved to 2.5 and even 3 at some sportsbooks. How will Andy Reid and the Chiefs respond as a rare underdog?
Thing are clicking for Josh Allen and the Bills offense, as coordinator Ken Dorsey is dialing up some plays putting his players in positions to be successful. It will be interesting to see how much Dorsey adjusts from what the Bills did last year as their offense really shredded them in both matchups? It will be equally worth watching to see what the Chiefs try to do to contain Allen and the Bills. Certainly homefield advantage can help a bit, but at the end of the day, Kansas City is currently 25th in scoring defense, which has to be a little concerning. KC has a couple of big problems in their typical scheme when they play the Bills. First, they love to blitz to generate pressure and create negative plays. The issues here are Josh Allen has been murdering the blitz this season, and that’s going to leave at least one receiver single covered in the secondary. A year ago the Chiefs were determined to take Stefon Diggs out of the offense and had him doubled almost entirely in both contests. Diggs numbers weren’t great, but it allowed others, namely Gabriel Davis, to explode with some monster performances. Although it goes against his normal tendencies, expect defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to play softer coverage and force the Bills to be patient, and try to get them to run the ball. The Bills have been terrible running the football this season, with the exception of Allen. With all of the big names on display in this game, it could be running back Devin Singletary who needs to play great for the Bills to stay balanced. The Bills will also have tight end Dawson Knox and slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie back from injury, and with the attention given to Diggs and Davis, those two will also need to make their share of plays. Going back to Allen, don’t be shocked if he has as many carries as a runner in this game as he’ll have all season. A couple injuries of note on the Chiefs defense are pass rusher Frank Clark and cornerback Rashad Fenton. Kansas City doesn’t have the deepest roster defensively, so they’re availability is pretty critical in a game like this.
The Bills obviously could be primed for another offensive outburst, but remember, it was the Kansas City Chiefs that made the big plays on offense when it counted in the playoffs last year. Patrick Mahomes seems to be adjusting just fine in life without Tyreek Hill, although it’s worth pointing out that he’s taking far less shots down the field, and the offense is a little more methodical. You can almost liken it to the Patriots when Randy Moss was no longer on the roster. Brady had to adjust to short quick and creative throws, which seems to be what Mahomes is doing so far this season. Those throws are there to be had against the Bills defense, as they run as much cover two as any team in the league. Andy Reid needs to remain patient and feed the ball to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon and Isaiah Pacheco in the running game. Even though the Bills have been stout with their run defense due largely in part to the additions of Daquan Jones and Jordan Phillips on the interior, there should be some running room for the Chiefs. The Bills will be paying a lot of attention to tight end Travis Kelce, coming off of his four touchdown performance in their win last week against the Raiders. Not having Micah Hyde is big with a matchup like this, even though Damar Hamlin has filled in pretty well for a young player. The biggest matchup that will determine the success for the Chiefs is how well their offensive line can hold up against the Bills pass rush. The Chiefs did a great job shoring up their offensive line after their Super Bowl defeat to the Buccaneers, and this will be a big test for them on Sunday. Left tackle Orlando Brown, Jr. has not played all that great, and he’s going to see a lot of Von Miller off of the edge. Mahomes is surgical when he has time to scan the field, or get out of the pocket, but we’ve seen how human he can be when he’s under heavy pressure.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites
– The Chiefs are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 games between the Chiefs and Bills
The winner of this game could have the inside track on homefield advantage in the AFC heading into the playoffs. There’s still a long way to go in the season though, so realistically, no matter who wins this game, you’re still probably looking at the top two teams in the conference. The Chiefs are coming off of a tough win against the Raiders, and go on the road to face the 49ers next weekend. However, you have to imagine, knowing they’re home underdogs would really be some nice motivation for them. Sean McDermott is 2-0 against the Chiefs in Arrowhead in the regular season, and of course should have won the playoff game there in the divisional round. As much as the Chiefs may feast on the underdog spot, this is a game the Bills have had circled on the calendars since the schedules were released. Unless one team or the other makes careless mistakes and turns the ball over, this should be another pretty good football game. Overall, the Bills simply have more matchup advantages head-to-head in this contest. They’re also as healthy as they’ve been since week one, and should have basically all players not on IR at their disposal. It seems so wrong to bet against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, and yet here we are.
BetCrushers Take: Buffalo Bills -2.5
Bills 33, Chiefs 26
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
vs. 
Dallas Cowboys (4-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-0)
Sunday October 16th
8:20pm
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under 42 (-110)
Sunday Night Football provides a familiar rivalry when the Dallas Cowboys head east to take on the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. The NFC East has looked surprisingly strong to open the season, as the Cowboys have won four in a row after starting quarterback Dak Prescott left week one. Prescott is almost ready to return, and he may find himself in a small QB controversy if Rush can secure a road win against the Eagles. Will Rush continue his winning ways, or can the Eagles put a stop to his streak and stretch their lead within the division?
Since we’re on the topic of surprising offensive players in 2022, let’s talk about the offensive line of the Dallas Cowboys, and backup quarterback Cooper Rush. When Tyron Smith was lost to injury, many pundits including the BetCrushers, believed that this Dallas offense was going to be anemic. Tyler Smith has stepped in and played really well on the left side of the line, and the interior has also been really strong, and not just Pro Bowler Zack Martin. It’s going to be a black and blue bruising type of game when they collide with the Philadelphia Eagles defensive line that enjoys a good fight. Part of the reason Dallas has been able to have some success on offense is because they’ve run the ball better than expected. Some of that is increased usage of Tony Pollard, and some is better blocking for Ezekiel Elliot. Even though Philadelphia hasn’t been as strong at stopping the run as they have in previous years, they still should be able to control the line of scrimmage, at least well enough to limit the Dallas running game. They want to turn this into a game where Cooper Rush is forced out of a game manager mode, and into a play-making mode. The Eagles boast two of the top 10 cornerbacks in the league, and arguably two of the top five so far this season. They should be able to lock up CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup fairly well. Someone else for Dallas is going to have to help move the chains in this game, and that will likely be third wideout Noah Brown. Tight end Dalton Schultz is banged up and may not go in this game, so it starts to become difficult to see where Dallas can generate offense? As importantly, we’ll have to see if Cooper Rush can continue taking good care of the football in a hostile environment with ballhawking cornerbacks.
The strong play of the Philadelphia Eagles offensive line is not a surprise as we expected them to be elite throughout the season. They have four starters banged up heading into this game which is worth noting, yet all four appear on track to play on Sunday. That’s good news against a Cowboys pass rush that has been routinely overwhelming opponents this season, led by Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. When you peel the onion back on the Cowboys success, you find that much of that came against some pretty weak offensive lines. It will be a true test to see if they can have the same success against a unit as strong as the Eagles. Philly also has an advantage that teams like the Rams and Bengals didn’t have when the Cowboys are able to generate pressure, and that’s a mobile quarterback. Jalen Hurts is playing good football, learning when to escape the pocket and when to make throws down the field. The Dallas secondary has looked good but you have to wonder but much of that is because of the fierce pass rush they’ve been afforded? Despite their strong play up to this point, we still give a pretty healthy advantage to A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert in this contest. The Cowboys feast on turnovers, so ball security will be overly important for the Eagles.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cowboys are 8-0 straight up in their last 8 games vs. the NFC East
– The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in the 2022 season
– The total has gone under in 4 of the last 6 games for the Eagles
In sports betting, teams can go from undervalued to overvalued really quickly, which is what we have here with the Dallas Cowboys. The team is clearly better than what we expected after what we saw in week number one, however they’re not an elite team. The Eagles on the other hand, with the emergence of Jalen Hurts as a legitimate quarterback are elite. Listening to the chatter leading up this week, many are predicting this to be a tight division showdown that comes down to the wire. That’s obviously very possible, but not the way we have it broken down. This seems more like the Eagles primetime beatdown of the Vikings when you look at how these teams are structured. We’re expecting a nice game from the Eagles offense, and their defense to put the clamps on the Cowboys offense. We’ve got the Eagles in a teaser below, and actually like them to cover outright, however we’re going back to the first half well here. The Eagles have started strong each week, and while that streak is bound to end at some point, we’ll keep rocking it until it does.
BetCrushers Take: Philadelphia Eagles – First Half -3.5 (-110)
Eagles 27, Cowboys 17 / (First Half – Eagles 17, Cowboys 7)
Teaser Bet
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)
Sunday October 16th
1:00pm
Acrisure Stadium – Pittsburgh, PA
Minnesota Vikings -7 (-115)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
Dallas Cowboys (4-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-0)
Sunday October 16th
8:20pm
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under 42 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Buccaneers -2 and Eagles -.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had their share of adversity to begin the 2022 season, and head to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers Sunday. Pittsburgh has had their own struggles, losing their best player to injury, and benching their starting quarterback after four unproductive games. Can the Steelers exciting rookie pull a home upset against the greatest QB to ever play the game? Read our thoughts on the other leg of the teaser in the above article, breaking down the matchup with the Cowboys and the Eagles.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense is one of the simplest in the league to break down, yet one of the most continually effective. This obviously stems from quarterback Tom Brady, who appears able to fight off any personal distractions going on, to play at a still high level at the position. Brady has some good news on the injury front as he’s starting to get his full arsenal of weapons healthy. That’s not great news for the Steelers who have all four secondary starters with limited to no practice designations as of Thursday. Brady can dice apart seasoned defensive backs, and if he’s going against backups, things could get ugly. Of course the Steelers will again be without T.J. Watt, who is really the key piece of their entire defense. The Steelers are yet to win a football game where T.J. Watt has not suited up since he’s been a Steeler. Perhaps the most alarming issue with the Steelers defense is they never really fixed the “toughness” issue they faced a year ago. This team just doesn’t have that physical and intimidating style that we’re so used to seeing from a Steeler defense. Look for Bucs running back Leonard Fournette to see a lot of work early in the game to gauge how this defense will respond.
Although the Steelers only put up three points in rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett’s first start, there were some encouraging signs for the young QB. He battled hard, and made some really nice throws, despite no running game to speak of, and being under heavy duress. Pickett seems as though he could absolutely be a franchise quarterback, which would be a really nice transition from Ben Roethlisberger to finding their guy the next season. This could be another tough spot for Pickett though, despite playing in the confines of his new home stadium. The Buccaneers will own the line of scrimmage here, once again putting Pickett in a really rough spot. Because of this, it’s unlikely the Steelers will fully be able to capitalize on the fact they actually do have a big advantage at the skill positions. If you’re a Steelers fan watching this game, it’s very possible you just want to see development from Pickett, and for him to make it out of the game without getting physically beaten up.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Buccaneers are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 road games
– The Steelers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Steelers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the NFC
– The Steelers have not won when T.J. Watt is out of the lineup
– The Cowboys are 8-0 straight up in their last 8 games vs. the NFC East
– The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in the 2022 season
– The total has gone under in 4 of the last 6 games for the Eagles
The first leg of this teaser is explained above, but let’s keep it really simple here. Tom Brady and a solid defense, versus Kenny Pickett and a struggling defense. The Bucs have won six straight road games and despite what we think of in our minds when we imagine the Pittsburgh Steelers, they’re simply not a very good football team. We like the Eagles pretty convincingly as you saw, but getting that at essentially a pick at home seems like a perfect partner for the first leg. Once again, better quarterback, better defense, can we finally get some smooth wins?
