Previous Week Plays – 2-2
Season Record – 9-5
Week 3 Recap:
Not a whole lot of interest to recap as we hit a pair of bets and missed a pair, with the wins dialed in, and the losses pretty bad. We had the Pats as a five point winner in a low scoring game against the Jets, which came to fruition. As handicapped, Zach Wilson was unable to solve Bill Belichick’s defense, and despite a late rally could not overcome the Patriots. We had buyer’s remorse with the Titans and the points against the Browns when the injury were stacked up heading into the game, but that was no excuse for that loss. The Browns defense manhandles the Titans offensive line and that one was never close. Our teaser was busted up early as the Jaguars had a disappointing loss to the Texans at home, but we also had the game total over, which with the help of those Texans, cruised over. Lots to learn from the weekend and we”re already looking ahead to week number four.
Week 4 Picks:
When the games peaking our interest involve hefty road favorites, or really bad teams, sometimes it’s better to punt and find other wagers to make. Injuries are playing a factor as well as their are some key players and positions that still are iffy to play at this point of the week. A prime example is the Las Vegas Raiders, as we love both their team total and taking the points, if Jimmy Garoppolo is starting. No chance we’re backing Brian Hoyer though, so we may add a play on Twitter (X) on Sunday. If you’re not following us there, don’t forget to find us @TheBetCrushers. What we decided on is a slender three wagers. One against the spread, one on a total, and one mathematical teaser bet. Best of luck with your wagers this weekend!
Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
vs. 
Atlanta Falcons (2-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
Sunday October 1st
9:30am
Wembley Stadium – London, England
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110)
Over/Under 43 (-110)
If nine hours of football wasn’t enough to pack into your Sundays already, you can now make it twelve as the Falcons and Jaguars will tee off early in the first game overseas in the 2023 season. This interconference matchup features teams with some similarities and some differences, each looking to get back on track following a loss. With the Jaguars unofficially the resident team of England, they’ll look to capitalize against the young offensive players of the Falcons.
Even the average NFL fan knows the Atlanta Falcons want to run the football behind a road-grading offensive line and excellent running game. They got away from that a week ago for some reason and they paid the price in the loss column. There’s a good chance they’ll go back to leaning on that running game once again as it clearly gives them the best opportunity to win. It’ll be strength on strength however as the Jaguars defense prides itself on being stout against the run, and they have been to start the 2023 season allowing just over 80 yards per game on the ground. We do need to point out however, Jacksonville hasn’t exactly faced the top rushing attacks in the league, so facing the talented duo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier will be a completely new test. To be honest, the breakdown essentially ends here as whichever team can break the other in this department has the best shot to win this football game. If the Jaguars are able to slow down the running game for the Falcons, pressure instantly shifts to Desmond Ridder and his ability to throw the football. On paper, he’s got a really friendly matchup versus this Jacksonville secondary that hasn’t really been covering anyone. The problem is, Ridder seemingly can’t seem to exploit these matchups, which leaves Drake London and Kyle Pitts feel like untapped resources for the offense.
There’s good news and there’s bad news for the Jaguars offense as well after their first three games. The bad news first, would be they are making a lot of mistakes like turning the ball over, dropping passes and missing assignments. The good news is, they’ve actually shown some really good stuff that hasn’t necessarily translated just yet, and we know they have a lot of talent. They’re still piecing the offensive line together, which has not looked great. Further complicating things in this game is rookie tackle Anton Harrison is now also banged up heading into Sunday. It sounds like he’s going to go, but it’s not a definite, and how effective he can be would still be a little bit of a question mark. The Falcons defensive line has certainly improved as expected from a year ago, yet they’re not what most would consider a top-notch unit. With the diversity of the Jaguars offense, Atlanta needs to stay disciplined against both Travis Etienne, Jr. and the run, as well as the passing attack and not give up the big plays. The formula has seemed to be making the Jaguars earn yards and forcing a mistake along the way. Expect more of that with the new addition and experience safety tandem for the Falcons not allowing throws behind them. Zay Jones will be out for the Jags, but that may not actually be the worst thing in the world as it will force the ball into the hands of Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk even more. Both players have had big games this season, however that hasn’t happened at the same time. What would make this Jaguars offensive more unstoppable is if Lawrence could get each receiver going and really putting defenses on their heels.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Falcons are 0-6 straight up in their last 6 road games
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 games for the Falcons
– The total has gone under in 4 of the last 5 games for the Jaguars
– The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
The line for this game opened at Jacksonville -4, and early money came in on the Falcons moving the line to sit on the key number of three points. Sharp money seems to have filtered in on the Jaguars, and we’re going that direction on Sunday as well. It seems like after a slow start, public perception of this Jags team has soured and there is a bit of an overcorrection happening. They’re simply not as bad as they’ve looked at times, and as people might feel they are sitting at 1-2. The Falcons on the other hand are basically a one dimensional team, playing against a team that can slow that down a little bit. Between the matchup edges Jacksonville has in a couple of areas, and their familiarity with playing in London with a crowd that will be primarily backing them, this feels like an opportunity for them to get things going. We’re going to give the Jags a shot in their second home, knowing a push is a very real possibility in this football game.
BetCrushers Take: Jacksonville Jaguars -3
Jaguars 24, Falcons 20
Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears
vs. 
Denver Broncos (0-3) vs. Chicago Bears (0-3)
Sunday October 1st
1:00pm
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Denver Broncos -3 (-110)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
When it rains it pours, and no matter what the forecast has been in Chicago or Denver, it’s been pouring on their franchises of late. Front and center of the struggles has been the quarterback play of Justin Fields and Russell Wilson, both of whom entered the season with pretty lofty expectations. Wilson has actually played fine overall, but when your team is 0-3 you’re still not going to get any praise at that position. Barring a rare tie, someone has to win on Sunday, right?
Let’s have some honest discussion here about the season for the Denver Broncos here heading into this game with the Bears. They’re probably already eliminated in the congested AFC playoff picture, but if they want to have any hope of turning their season around they need to win here. The best news they’ll get here is they’re playing a Chicago defense that is absolutely horrible. In fact, they’d be ranked dead last so far, if it weren’t for the Broncos own defensive struggles. Even though Denver still isn’t getting great play from their offensive line, it’s probably not going to matter in this game. If the home crowd even shows up to support the Bears, their pass rush still shouldn’t give Russell Wilson too much trouble. If Bronco fans need more good news, they’re going to have a real advantage at receiver with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and the explosive looking rookie Marvin Mims, Jr. matching up against a depleted Chicago secondary. Simply put, if Sean Payton and Russell Wilson can’t throw on this defense and put some points on the board, things are pretty much hopeless for the rest of this season. Look for Javonte Williams to have a nice game as well rounding into shape after a few games. The Bears haven’t been terrible against opposing running backs, but Williams should be able to consistently bang out some tough yardage.
We’re basically carbon copying the opposite offense as the Bears could get just what they need to get going on offense against the defense that gave up the 70 burger last weekend. Justin Fields seems like a complete mess right now, and one of two things are going to happen by the end of this football game. Either his confidence will be restored and we’ll see some of the electricity that gives people hope about the young QB, or we could be coming to a consensus conclusion that he simply doesn’t have what it takes to play in the league. That may seem overdramatic based on one football game between two 0-3 teams, but it really feels that way deep down. Anyhow, the Broncos have been bad stopping the run, even going back to last season when their defense was actually playing well. Fields athleticism could really pay off against the interior of this defense. Running backs Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson could also see some nice work and statistics in this game as well. Somewhat surprisingly, Denver hasn’t been able to get pressure on the quarterback either, which should help Fields see the field a little better. Even with All-Pro Patrick Surtain II in the secondary, the Broncos have been getting lit up in the passing game. It’s time to wonder if their safeties are just fighting aging a bit, and everyone has to question the heart of this defense at this point. It wouldn’t be surprising to see some different faces on that defense to try to instill a bit of fight for Denver. As always, the question for the Bears will be whether or not they have enough at the skill positions, and whether or not the QB can get the ball out to take advantage when the plays are out there.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
– The total has gone over in 7 of the last 8 games for the Broncos
– The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games
– The total has gone over in 10 of the last 13 games for the Bears
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 6 games for the Bears vs. an AFC opponent
These two proud fanbases have really taken it on the chin the past few years, but this is a chance for one to at least keep their season on life support for another week. As far as the spread goes, we’ve kind of made a case both ways, which is a good indication to either take the points or stay away completely. Although taking the points is mildly appealing, we simply cannot back this Chicago Bears squad at this point. We’re also not going to roll with the Broncos after what we’ve recently witnessed. What we do like here is the total going over as it seems like this game absolutely has to get into the 50’s with the way these two defenses are playing. As long as Justin Fields can recapture even a bit of his scrambling magic, there should be no reason the total doesn’t go over a very manageable 46 points.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 46
Broncos 29, Bears 24
Teaser Bet
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Miami Dolphins (3-0) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-1)
Sunday October 1st
1:00pm
Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 53.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) vs. New York Jets (1-2)
Sunday October 1st
8:20pm
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-115)
Over/Under 41.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Dolphins +8.5 and Chiefs -2.5
The game of the week is slated for the early window on Sunday as the Dolphins take their perfect record to western New York to face the rival Buffalo Bills. Fresh off of that remarkable 70 point performance a week ago, they’ll see if they can keep that momentum going against a defense that knows what they’re up against. Later that evening the Kansas City Chiefs will also hit the road and face the seemingly cursed New York Jets as pretty hefty road favorites. Things are unraveling quickly for the Jets as the team has not been able to rally around Zach Wilson, who simply doesn’t appear to have what it takes to play at the NFL level. Can the Jets defense keep this game low scoring and give their team a chance to win, or is their simply too much of a mismatch between quarterbacks in this game?
The Dolphins offense looks like an unstoppable juggernaut as it’s hitting on all cylinders right now. Head coach Mike McDaniels is creating some amazing schemes, and what’s scary for the rest of the league is how well their offensive line is playing and how effectively they’re running the football. With teams committed to stopping Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, rushing yards are there for the taking, and so far this year, the Dolphins are absolutely taking them. Raheem Mostert looks as fast as ever and is running with power as well, and rookie De’Von Achane is showing people his out of this world speed as well after fighting an early season injury. The Bills aren’t afraid to give up some rushing yards, and Sean McDermott will want to make the Dolphins work their way down the field. When they’re able to get Miami to third down, they’ve got to figure out a way to get some pressure on Tua Tagovailoa and get off the field. Tua has been so quick getting the ball out he’s been nearly untouched this season in the pocket. With veteran safety Jordan Poyer ruled out for Sunday, it’ll remain to be seen whether or not the Bills have enough confidence to really challenge Hill and Waddle. On the other side of the ball, the Bills offense could certainly keep up against Miami if it becomes a shoot-out. After his week one debacle, Josh Allen has played really well, and the Bills are running the ball better and more often than a year ago. He’s also absolutely owned the Dolphins in his career, and played well against Vic Fangio defenses. Stefon Diggs figures to get a lot of looks as always, but don’t be surprised if it’s a player like Gabe Davis, or even rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid who make some plays in the passing game. The Dolphins are one of the deeper defenses in the league, but it does look like they’ll be without Jaelan Phillips again, which does impede their pass rush a bit.
How scary is it for the rest of the world that the Chiefs look like they have a really good defense headlined by some young talent mixed in with veteran Chris Jones? Offensively, we know who the Chiefs are, and they’ll have a tough matchup against a Jets defense that is physical and plays really well at home. The battle in the trenches will be physical as the Chiefs offensive interior will match up with Quinnen Williams all day long in an iron sharpens iron type situation. Where the Jets need to win is on the edges, as the Chiefs new tackles are still a little shaky at this point. Kansas City needs to continue to find additional help around Travis Kelce, and it will be interesting to see how the Jets elect to defend the tight end. One thing that always makes the Chiefs offense dangerous is if they can establish a running game early. That’ll be tough to do against the Jets, so it’ll likely fall to Mahomes to get the ball out quickly with their usual short passing attack in-lieu of that running game. Flipping over to the Jets offense, oh boy, this could be a really bad situation on national TV. There is rumblings about a locker room issue and losing faith in the coaching staff because of the poor play of Zach Wilson. No one, including the young QB figured they’d be where they are right now, and they’re clearly not adapting well. The Jets absolutely have to run the ball in this football game. Breece Hall wants the totes, and he’s gonna get them here, as will Dalvin Cook, assuming they can keep the score somewhat within range. Garrett Wilson is simply not the same with Zach Wilson struggling right now, and the Chiefs are doing a nice job of taking away opposing wideouts behind budding start Trent McDuffie at corner. Much like he saw a week ago against the Patriots, Wilson is going to face a lot of pressure from a Steve Spagnuolo defense and he simply has to protect the ball. With that being said, against the Chiefs, you’ve also gotta make some plays, as punting every possession won’t get it done either.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 6 road games
– The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC East opponents
– The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Jets are 1-8 straight up in their last 9 games
There isn’t a whole lot to say for why we’re playing this teaser on the Sunday card. The numbers line up, and we’re backing two really good quarterbacks who seem almost unstoppable with an extra six points in their pockets. We’re expecting a close game in Buffalo and a bit of a blowout in New York, which lines this up perfectly. The Dolphins should hold their own against the Bills, and could win the game outright. There is really not much of a path for Zach Wilson to get out of the slump he’s in against the Chiefs, even with a strong defense backing him. Yes, both of these teams are on the road, but we’re rolling the dice with them anyhow.
