Previous Week Plays – 3-1
Season Record – 3-1
A nice rebound on Sunday sweeping the slate at 3-0 to make up for our missed teaser with the Chiefs on Thursday evening. We had put our plays out before the Travis Kelce injury, which would have impacted that bet, but no crying over what-ifs. It felt great as the handicaps for all three Sunday wagers were dialed in and got home fairly easy. The only semi sweat was really the teaser with the Commanders and Titans, as Washington fell behind Arizona with some turnovers early, before finally pulling away at the end. The Bengals did struggle offensively, as we thought they might, and the under was really never in doubt. The Packers did in fact light up the scoreboard and the Bears got enough to get the over home pretty comfortably. It wasn’t just the 3-0 Sunday that felt good, but our reads on other games heading into the season were pretty spot on also. Teams like the Browns and Packers won outright as we thought they might. It’s a long season, but getting off to a fast start always feels good, and we’re ready to keep the train moving.
Week 2 Picks:
There are a lot of games that peak our interest in week number two, however we’re still a little hesitant and want to see more from a few of the teams. It’s never great to make a habit betting over totals in the NFL, but after a week one that saw a lot of teams struggling to put points on the scoreboard, we’re expecting a little evening out, especially in a few matchups. We’re also playing our first game against the spread, in what involves a pair of 0-1 teams, that quite frankly are not playoff contenders. We’ve added another teaser bet into the mix as well, for a total of five bets, all on Sunday games.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0)
Sunday September 17th
1:00pm
Everbank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-120)
Over/Under 51 (-110)
One of the best matchups of week number two showcases the league’s defending Super Bowl Champions heading east to take on a team with championship aspirations. The Chiefs had to face the Lions without two of their top players and ended up with a loss in a close game in their opener. Meanwhile, the Jaguars got a battle from division rival Indianapolis, before pulling away late to post a 1-0 start to their year.
The Kansas City Chiefs are going to be just fine on offense, despite the fact their new tackles not playing great in their opener, and their receivers were extremely unproductive. It goes without saying the return of Travis Kelce is going to provide an enormous boost to KC and quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Kelce is set to take the field and you know both he and Mahomes are anxious to get the offense on track and get them team into the win column against the rising Jaguars. Jacksonville had all they could handle from the Colts and Anthony Richardson in week one, and now have an obviously tougher assignment against the league’s reigning MVP. The Jags believe they have great talent in their secondary, however we’re not so sure. This is especially true when you have a matchup problem like Kelce. Expect Mahomes and Andy Reid to revert back to what they know, which should also ease some of the pressure on the rest of the skill positions. Signs were not encouraging for receivers Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore against the Lions, but without having to shoulder the burden of the offense, they should be able to haul in some of the passes they dropped in week one. The Jags really need to ramp up the pressure to get to Mahomes and force him to be spectacular for an entire sixty minute game. Edge rusher Josh Allen was a beast versus Indy, however the Jags didn’t get a lot of pressure otherwise. With the league cracking down on the tackle alignment and starts, Jacksonville could find some success with Allen matched up against right tackle Jawaan Taylor. Left tackle Donovan Smith is also a little worrisome on the other side, so we could see Mahomes utilizing his legs maybe more than he’d like to out of necessity. The Jaguars were stout against the run against a solid interior of the Colts, so don’t expect a ton of running support from KC. We could end up seeing a lot of Jerick McKinnon in the game if Isaiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are unable to produce much on the ground.
On the stat sheet the Jaguars were electric, both running and throwing the football in their opener. When you go back and watch the game, the numbers may have been just a little misleading. Yes, Calvin Ridley was as good as they had hoped, and Travis Etienne, Jr. made a couple of explosive plays, but the offense did stall at times. Jacksonville dodged a bullet as it looks as though the injury to right guard Brandon Scherff is not serious and he should be able to go on Sunday. That’s big when a player like Chris Jones is making his debut and looking disrupt things on the interior of the defense. Perhaps the most encouraging piece of the Chiefs opener against the Lions is they were able to get some moderate pressure without Jones, and with Cam Robinson still suspended at left tackle, we’re expecting they’ll at least be able to disrupt Trevor Lawrence a bit. Travis Etienne, Jr. could be the key though, as the Chiefs defensive style may leave the young running back unaccounted for in non-obvious running situations. Another player we’ll be watching is tight end Evan Engram. With Spagnuolo bringing pressure off the edges, Engram could be an important piece of the passing attack in the middle of the field.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Chiefs are 7-0 straight up in their last 7 games vs. the Jaguars
– The Chiefs are 9-2 straight up in their last 11 games
– The Jaguars are 5-0 straight up in their last 5 home games
Nearly everyone believes Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league, and arguably the most important player for his team. We all saw how important the second and third best players are for the Chiefs with the absence of Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. Having them back in a game they need to have is going to prove too much for the Jags, who are just not quite there yet in the upper echelon of the AFC. We’re expecting a lot of points in this game, but ultimately this just seems like one of those games the Chiefs will snag, with a big performance from Kelce. We’re going to go as square as can be here with some obvious potential for some pushes, laying the points with the Chiefs and taking the over in one that should be a shootout.
BetCrushers Take: Kansas City Chiefs -3 / Total – Over 51
Chiefs 32, Jaguars 27
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills
vs. 
Las Vegas Raiders (0-1) vs. Buffalo Bills (0-1)
Sunday September 17th
1:00pm
Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47 (-110)
The Buffalo Bills return home after a crushing road loss to the Jets in week one, facing a Las Vegas Raiders team that eclipsed the rival Broncos in their opener. Despite an ugly turnover filled performance, the Bills enter the game as 8.5 point favorites in Orchard Park. Are the Raiders legitimate contenders in the AFC, or will the Bills be able to assert the dominance suggested by the spread?
The NFL community really needs to give Jimmy Garoppolo his props for what he manages to do when he’s on the field. He may not be a dynamic quarterback, but he somehow seems to find ways to win, and be efficient. The Raiders offense moved the ball well a week ago in their upset win against the Broncos, both winning time of possession, and playing balanced football. They’ll take a crack Sunday against a Bills defense that played well against the Jets, albeit in a loss, and against backup Zach Wilson. Las Vegas will attempt to establish Josh Jacobs and the running game to once again keep the opponents offense off of the field. The Raiders offensive line held up really well against the Broncos as they gave Garoppolo time to throw and did enough in the run game to stay balanced. The Bills interior needs to keep the linebackers clean to allow them to stay focused on Jacobs. Ed Oliver had a productive game versus the Jets, and he has already discussed his familiarity with Raiders guard Greg Van Roten, who he practiced against in Buffalo. If Garoppolo can continue to not make big mistakes, third down will end up being the key down. The Bills have not been great against third downs since the middle of last season, which can also hurt their ability to get their offense on the field. The bad news for the Raiders is it looks like their free agent receiver Jakobi Meyers will be out with a concussion, allowing the Bills to really lock in on Davante Adams. Hunter Renfrow can work the slot, but Bills corner Taron Johnson should be able to keep him in check. Expect consistent double teams on Adams, throughout the contest.
How’s that old saying about being at the bottom go? Something about there’s only room to go up and get better, which is what the Bills offense will attempt to do. Mainly, that would be quarterback Josh Allen, who is coming off one of the worst performances of his career, including four really bad turnovers. There’s been a lot of emphasis during the week on patience and taking care of the football, so let’s see how Allen and company adapt. There’s a few things working in Allen’s favor, primarily the fact the Raiders have not been great at taking away the football in recent years. Even though they held the Broncos to 16 points, Denver moved the ball pretty well, they simply didn’t have enough possessions and opportunities to rack up some points. The Bills offensive line wasn’t awful against a good Jets defense, but you can tell the residual effects were in Allen’s head as he was squirmy and quick to get out of the pocket. Chandler Jones still looks to be away from the team, so it’ll come down to Maxx Crosby and rookie Tyree Wilson to provide the pressure off the edges. Buffalo needs to find a way to neutralize Crosby as he’ll be lined up against Spencer Brown, who is one of the least consistent right tackles in the league. Expect more continued two tight end sets with Dawson Knox and rookie Dalton Kincaid, and Knox could end up being used a lot as a blocker in this game. Bills running back James Cook showed some flashes on Monday Night, and this Raiders defense is vulnerable to the run game. This could be a huge performance for the second year back running and receiving. Look for Buffalo to also involve Gabe Davis more, as he received a mere three targets against the stringent Jets defense.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 games for the Bills
– The total has gone over between the Bills and Raiders in their last 7 games
– The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
Something hasn’t been right with Josh Allen and the Bills offense since midway through last season. If there’s ever an opportunity for a slumpbuster game, it’s this one at home against the Raiders. The key for the Bills in this game is to play with confidence and not tense up after the poor performance against the Jets. There’s a possibility the Bills blow the doors off of this Raiders team, but after what we saw from Las Vegas in week one, this one could end up being a little closer than many people think. There is some historical content here as Josh Allen (as many good QBs are) has been really good after his worst games. In games where Allen has turned the ball over three or more times, he is 9-3 ATS and has had a QB rating of 104.2. Allen will come out focused in this one and the defense for Buffalo will help set things up as well. We’re taking the Bills team total which is still available on several books over 26.5.
BetCrushers Take: Buffalo Bills – Team Total – Over 26.5
Bills 31, Raiders 23
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
vs. 
Indianapolis Colts (0-1) vs. Houston Texans (0-1)
Sunday September 17th
1:00pm
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Houston Texans -1 (-110)
Over/Under 39.5 (-110)
Familiar AFC South foes will match up with some unfamiliar signal-callers leading the both the Colts and the Texans. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud will lead the Texans when fellow rookie Anthony Richardson leads the Colts into Houston. This could be the first of many future battles between two of the top picks in this year’s draft. The defenses could play a key role in determining who comes away with an early season divisional win.
Fans of the Colts had to be excited at how Anthony Richardson commanded the offense in his first career NFL start. The offense wasn’t exactly a juggernaut, and still lacks playmakers at the skill positions, but overall, they were able to make things happen. They’ll take their show on the road against a Texans defense that had a solid half against the Ravens before finally being outmanned on both sides of the ball. As crazy at it sounds, the Colts and Texans will have a pretty fierce battle in the trenches each way. The Colts offensive line was decent in the opener, but could not get their running game going behind Deon Jackson. With Jonathan Taylor not playing anytime soon, Zack Moss looks to make his season debut and they hope he can give them a little physicality between the tackles. The Texans defensive line is one of the more underrated units in the league as rookie Will Anderson, Jr. appears to be the real deal on the edge. The interior of the line isn’t afraid to get dirty, and veteran pass rush specialist Jerry Hughes can still bring some heat on passing downs. The Colts are desperate to get a receiver to pair with Michael Pittman, Jr., but this may be a tough assignment for that happen. One of the most improved players in week one from a season ago was last year’s first round pick for the Texans, cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. With his improved play, and having veterans Steven Nelson and Shaquill Griffin, the Texans secondary is also an underrated group. It is worth pointing out, both starting safeties have not practiced this week so there is a real possibility they might be without both. The question here is whether or not Richardson can take advantage of backup players in that secondary?
Offensively, things weren’t great for the Texans in C.J. Stroud’s season debut. That isn’t shocking as they had a touch matchup on the road, and there are several new pieces on the offense. Houston is already without starting right tackle Tytus Howard, so they really need left tackle Laremy Tunsil to be able to go, as he’s currently questionable. It’s actually the interior of the line that needs to play well though, as we watched Grover Stewart, and All-Pro DeForest Buckner wreak havoc against the Jaguars. Rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle with edge pressure, but having people in your face is never helpful either. Additionally, the Texans need to get their running game going, as Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary can provide a nice one-two punch if they can get even a little bit of space. With that interior likely to be jammed up, it makes Tunsil a critical part of this football game. The positive news for C.J. Stroud is he seemed to get some nice help from his wide receivers. Veteran wideout Robert Woods showed he’s still got a little gas left in the tank, and Nico Collins was able to make some plays late in the game against the Ravens. Dalton Schultz is also a player that could be featured against the Colts secondary. Houston would love to see Tank Dell or John Metchie III step up and become a key contributor for them. The Colts miss Stephon Gilmore, but much like on the other side of the ball, can Stroud take advantage of a flimsy Indianapolis secondary?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Colts are 1-5 straight up in their last 6 road games
– The Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. the AFC South
– The Texans are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
Traditional bettors may opt to pass wagering on a game with two poor football teams with rookie quarterbacks. We’re going with the theory that every team has to win sometimes, and this is a game the Texans have to win. If you’re following the injury report, you’ll notice C.J. Stroud is actually questionable to play in this game. We’d be completely fine with Davis Mills getting the start, as he may actually give the Texans an even better chance to win at this point. This Houston defense isn’t great, but it’s also better than most people think. This will be a close game, so it’s probably going to take the full 60 minutes to get a cover, but here we go. How the heck are the Texans are first posted bet against the spread in 2023?
BetCrushers Take: Houston Texans -1
Texans 20, Colts 17
Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions
vs. 
Seattle Seahawks (0-1) vs. Detroit Lions (1-0)
Sunday September 17th
1:00pm
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
An early season NFC contest with two teams attempting to work their way into the elite of the conference will take place in the Motor City on Sunday. The Lions are confident after defeating the Super Bowl champs in their building, while the Seahawks want to wash the bad taste of an ugly opening weekend loss out of their mouth. Seattle needs to improve on both sides of the ball, while the Lions want to build on the momentum of their big week one win. This could be one of the more exciting games of the weekend if the offenses can get things heated up.
There are a few teams that really need to rebound in week number two, and the Seattle Seahawks are definitely one of them. A season ago a matchup with a Lions defense would have been an enticing starting point. This year it’s a little different story as the talent level has increased, and they have a developing star in second year defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. He could be a game wrecker on Sunday, as he’ll be lined up against backup tackle Jake Curhan, who had some issues in his first start. As if that isn’t bad enough, left tackle Charles Cross will also be missing this contest, which could mean a lot of pressure on quarterback Geno Smith. After a red-hot start to the 2022 season, Smith has not looked all that spectacular since. It’s certainly not due to a lack of weapons as D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba are one of the top trios across the entire league. The Lions beefed up secondary should be able to at least somewhat contain this group, something they definitely would not have been able to do a year ago. Seattle would be wise to start with what Pete Carroll really loves, which is running the football. Kenneth Walker III, and rookie Zach Charbonnet need to have productive games to slow down the pass rush of the Lions.
On the Detroit side of the football, the running game might be key here as well. The Seahawks were one of the worst teams at stopping the run in 2022, and allowed a meager running attack of the Rams to find success against them. Jamal Adams being sidelined is a bit of a blessing and a curse at the same time. Adams provides some extra thump around the box, but has proven to be a liability in pass coverage. Unfortunately for Seattle, his replacement Julian Love wasn’t able to improve the pass coverage against the Rams, and the run defense was still weak. The Lions offensive line should be able to control the line of scrimmage, so expect another solid performance from David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. The latter looks electric, and we could see some big plays from him against a defense that gave up a lot of them last season. The matchup advantage that really appears to be favorable for Detroit is Amon-Ra St. Brown working in the slot. The Rams exploited the middle of the field behind Bobby Wagner, and if the Lions were paying attention, the blueprint is right there for them. Rookie Sam LaPorta also showed some flashes at tight end, so he could also be a factor in that part of the game. Perhaps most importantly, Jared Goff has been doing a great job taking care of the football. As long as he doesn’t get too aggressive versus the cornerbacks for Seattle, there is little reason to believe that won’t continue.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Lions are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games
– The total has gone over in 10 of the last 12 games for the Lions in September
– The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Lions
We’re not going to completely pull the plug on our optimism for the Seattle Seahawks we had entering the season because of one divisional loss. However, we will already question if Geno Smith is more of the quarterback we thought he was when he was named the starter before the 2022 season? Despite that question, our original breakdown was focused on playing the game total over, which seemed a little low in a game that could potentially be a shootout. With the line moving past 47, and the tackles missing for Seattle, we’re opting for backing just the Lions offense. Detroit is going to be rocking, and the weapons are there for the Lions to put some points on the board. Another over on the books for us as we’re thinking the Lions can find 30+ points in this one.
BetCrushers Take: Detroit Lions – Team Total Over 26.5
Lions 30, Seahawks 21
Teaser Bet
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys
vs. 
and 
vs. 
San Francisco 49ers (1-0) vs. Los Angeles Rams (1-0)
Sunday September 17th
4:05pm
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
San Francisco 49ers -7 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
New York Jets (1-0) vs. Dallas Cowboys (1-0)
Sunday September 17th
4:25pm
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Dallas Cowboys -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under 38.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: 49ers -1 and Cowboys -2.5
The early 1990’s saw the San Francisco 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys competing for NFC superiority, something we’re seeing again. The San Francisco 49ers who travel to face the Los Angeles Rams looking for a second convincing victory to begin the season. The Dallas Cowboys have their opener in Jerry’s World against the New York Jets with a backup quarterback. Not many people are expecting the Rams and Jets to be competitive, however both teams have some nice things going for them heading into these matchups. The spreads appear to be right around where they should be, so getting through some key numbers make this a teaser bet for us.
We really need to start respecting what Sean McVay is able to do with what most believe is inferior talent on his roster. He’ll be facing that uphill battle once again versus a loaded 49ers team that looks as though they may be the top team in the league throughout the first week. Of course it helps having Matthew Stafford behind center, who has a serious chemistry with his head coaches offensive game plans. It’ll be a little tougher this week with Nick Bosa and the ferocious Niners defense in his grill. Stafford was able to get some guys involved in the offense that weren’t on too many folk’s radar heading into the game. Against this opponent though, there’s simply too much heat to consistently move the ball. Last week’s hidden star Puka Nacua looks doubtful to go, and without Cooper Kupp, where is Stafford going to go? There won’t be any relief running the ball either, as the 49ers are one of the best at stopping opposing running games. On the other side, the 49ers offense also simply has too many weapons to account for. Running back Christian McCaffrey has to be a focal point for any defense, which leaves guys like Deebo Samuel and Brandon Auyik running open in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. The Rams inexperienced secondary showed up against the Seahawks weapons, but they simply won’t have enough, even with Aaron Donald to make Brock Purdy uncomfortable.
The second game of our teaser doesn’t need to be talked about too much as it’s been the lead story in all sports media. Zach Wilson will assume control of the Jets offense after the unfortunate injury to Aaron Rodgers just four snaps into the season. Wilson’s first start is a really unfavorable one, as he’ll be going against a defense that can flat out get after quarterbacks on the road. The Jets best bet is to try what the Giants tried at the beginning of their game before it got out of hand, and that’s running the football. Breece Hall looks like he isn’t missing a step off of his ACL injury, and Dalvin Cook was able to jump right into the offense. The Cowboys defense looks really fast and aggressive, but we’re not sold that they’re elite against stopping the run yet. It will be imperative for the Jets to stay in 3rd and shorts so they don’t have to ask Wilson or their offensive line to do too much. One of the top additions of the offseason was cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who gives the Cowboys an ability to bring extra pressure. With Gilmore and a deep secondary, it’s tough to imagine the Jets being able to get Garrett Wilson too involved in the offense. Simply put, the Jets really need to rush for 200 yards in this game if they’re going to have a shot at pulling the road upset. The Cowboys offense didn’t have to do a lot against the Giants, and they’ll definitely be tested versus the Jets. Good defenses tend to step up even more with backup quarterbacks playing, and they know they have to slow the Cowboys down. They were able to get four turnovers against the Bills, however they were basically gifted these. Will they be able to make Dak Prescott make some bad throws as well? Brandin Cooks may miss the game, so it could be a little tough throwing the ball for Dak with CeeDee Lamb drawing the bulk of the coverage. Tony Pollard will be a key as he needs to prove he can be the guy against a strong defense.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Raiders are 2-4 straight up in their last 6 games vs. the Bills
– The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
– The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Rams
– The 49ers are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 games
– The Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. the 49ers
Depending on the sportsbook you’re using and the lines you have, it’s not impossible you could get better juice just parlaying these two on the moneyline. Getting through the key numbers that essentially just need to get us the straight up win, we’re adding them in as our teaser. The San Francisco 49ers have absolutely owned the Rams during the Sean McVay area, and with the exception of Aaron Donald and Matthew Stafford, have the advantage at nearly every position on the field. This one doesn’t seem like it can be close, so we’ll likely have the 49ers teased in more than one matchup. The Cowboys leg feels a little less comfortable, primarily because we know the Jets can run the football and play defense. That should give them at least a punchers chance at making the game competitive. Ultimately, asking Zach Wilson to go in and beat this defense just seems like asking a little too much. Give us the heavyweights versus the teams that are playing with one hand tied behind their backs.
