Previous Week Plays – 1-5
Season Record – 1-5
Week 1 Recap:
Talk about a damper to what was the exciting kickoff weekend in the NFL for the BetCrushers! A horrendous start finishing 1-4 on Sunday after losing the total on the Thursday night opener between the Chiefs and Ravens. It was a combination of some bad handicapping, some surprises, and the of course seemingly unavoidable bad beat when things snowball. The Dolphins fumbled away their early chances for a cover as they struggled to win a close game against the Jaguars. The square bet we were counting on of the Texans covering on the road went out the window when they gave up a bomb on a ridiculous throw from Anthony Richardson. And somehow the Titans did not cover despite completely dominating the Bears. The under did at least hold as that game really went the way we thought it would, just netting us a 1-1 rather than a 2-0. And finally, and most disappointingly, the Raiders were flat in a game we felt they had a legitimate shot at winning, let alone covering to wrap up the terrible weekend. One thing you can always count on with our posted plays is transparent honesty, when we have a terrible week, we’ll own it humbly and move on to the next episode.
Week 2 Picks:
It can be tempting to overreach in an effort to make up for a poor week, but we’re holding steady with just what we want to play below. It’s tempting to take road favorites like the Steelers and Rams, or even the Chiefs against a wounded Bengals team. We’re opting to stay within the system and hopes that we can claw back slowly and steadily over the next couple of weeks. We did find six total wagers to publish this week, including our first two six-point teasers of the year that we also have additional action on. Let’s have a more successful and profitable week number two!
Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots
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Seattle Seahawks (1-0) vs. New England Patriots (1-0)
Sunday September 15th
1:00pm
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 38.5 (-110)
Fresh off a week one win against the Broncos, the Seahawks take flight across the country to take on one of week one’s surprise winners in New England. The Patriots used a suffocating defense to give new head coach Jerod Mayo his first win, while the Seahawks were balanced in their impressive victory for their new head coach, Mike Macdonald. Which of these teams can jump out to a fast 2-0 start on Sunday?
The Seattle Seahawks offense looked a lot as you might have expected in week one as they were methodical running the ball, and mixed in some opportunistic passing. There’s no question they’ll attempt to pack that formula on the road when they go into Foxboro on Sunday. Things could look a little tougher however, as the Patriots defense appears to be a bit stouter than the Broncos, and they’ll be in a louder and more hostile environment. Additionally, Kenneth Walker III has not practiced this week and is in real jeopardy to miss this game. Zach Charbonnet is a capable backup, however this running game will look quite different without Walker’s power and consistency. The Patriots secondary was great against the Bengals, and Christian Gonzalez could be on his way to an All-Pro type season at the cornerback position. Gonzalez may see a lot of D.K. Metcalf and the Pats will likely do what they did against Cincinnati, by leaving safeties over the top and forcing Seattle to be patient. The two players on Seattle’s offense that may need to step up in this game are slot receiver Jaxson Smith-Njigba and tight end Noah Fant. The middle of the field underneath will have some holes, and it may come down to one-on-one matchups after the catch. Speaking of one-on-one matchups, a suddenly interesting one will be Hawks’ left tackle Charles Cross against defensive end Keion White, who is coming off of a monstrous three sack performance against the Bengals. Protecting quarterback Geno Smith is going to be critical in this game as the Patriots really need negative plays like sacks and turnovers to win a football game with their limited offense. Has the Geno Smith early Seahawk magic washed away, or can he still lead this team in battle against a tough defense on the road?
It’s not a mystery to understand the Patriots path to success on offense during the 2024 season, at least with Jacoby Brissett under center. This team needs to be able to run the football, stay on the field, and cannot turn the ball over. Rhamondre Stevenson was able to run over the Bengals, who were clearly missing big D.J. Reader in the middle of their defense. The Seahawks defense can potentially be run on, but there has to be some threat of the pass. That’s where this could get really difficult for New England. The Seattle secondary is one of the best units in the league, and they should be able to blanket the underwhelming wide receivers for New England, allowing them to really focus on stopping Stevenson. If New England can’t get the running game going and find themselves in third and long situations, we are going to see a lot of punting in this game. Much like on the Seattle side of the ball, the tight ends for New England will need to make some plays to support in the passing game. One good thing for New England is the Hawks will be without their top pass rusher Uchenna Nwosu, which should help keep Brissett clean in the pocket. These two offenses are actually very similar, the biggest difference is Seattle has receivers who can win individual matchups on a consistent basis.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 7 games for the Seahawks
– The total has gone under in 7 of the last 8 road games for the Seahawks
– The Patriots are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games
It’s always a little scary taking an under when it starts with the number 3, as it does in this particular game. In reality, it’s hard to see either team here getting to 20 points unless we see something like a special teams touchdown or some variance like that. As the season goes in, it wouldn’t be shocking for games involving the Patriots to have totals in the mid thirties. It’s a lot like Iowa football from the previous couple of seasons. Look for a lot of running in this game, a lot of punting, and a low-scoring close game. Just like when a total is high, when a total is low, it’s low for a reason. Let’s make Jacoby Brissett and Geno Smith beat us here.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Under 38.5
Seahawks 19, Patriots 13
Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
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Cleveland Browns (0-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)
Sunday September 15th
1:00pm
Everbank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-115)
Over/Under 41.5 (-110)
Week number one was not kind to the Cleveland Browns or the Jacksonville Jaguars as both teams began the 2024 campaign with a loss. The Jaguars had their game in their control before costly mistakes allowed the Dolphins an opportunity to snatch the win at the literal last second. The Browns on the other hand were thoroughly trounced in front of their fans at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys. In a crowded and competitive AFC, an 0-2 start could end up being too much for a team to overcome. A win here could be a huge early season task for one of these teams.
Is it too early to suggest a quarterback is on the hot seat after just one game to open the season? It sure doesn’t seem like it when we’re looking at Browns $250 million dollar man Deshaun Watson. The beleaguered QB was completely ineffective against the Cowboys, posting the lowest QBR of any starting signal caller in week one. That’s of course in addition to a new legal case that popped up which undoubtedly has the Browns exploring all options for Watson and his future on the team. In drilling down to his struggles, the Browns were unable to run the football, and Watson was under a lot of pressure against an aggressive Dallas defense. The Cleveland offense goes as their offensive line goes, and missing Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin greatly impacts their ability to keep the pocket clean on the edges and run the ball. The good news for the Browns is both tackles seem trending towards making their debuts this weekend, although it’s doubtful either will be completely healthy. That’s not ideal against a Jaguars defense with a strength of rushing off the edges with Josh Hines-Allen and former number one pick Travon Walker. These edge matchups will determine if the Browns will be able to perform better offensively and perhaps keep Watson at QB for another week. If Watson is protected, he really does need to make the plays that are there in front of him. It’s unlikely this Browns offense will run the ball all that well behind Jerome Ford, and against a fairly solid rush defense of Jacksonville. But the Browns do have some matchup advantages against a Jaguars secondary that will be missing their top player in cornerback Tyson Campbell, and also Darnell Savage. To even things out though, the Browns will be without their talented tight end David Njoku. The pressure is on Deshaun Watson in this game, let’s see how he handles it.
The Jaguars offense actually played pretty well against Miami in their opener, they just couldn’t get out of their own way. A horrible fumble going into the end zone by Travis Etienne, and some untimely penalties set them back and ultimately cost them a victory. This is becoming an all too common theme with this offense, but at least there were some encouraging signs. Rookie Brian Thomas, Jr. and Gabe Davis both looked good in their Jag debuts, and Trevor Lawrence played solidly. They also ran the ball with a committee as Tank Bigsby provided some burst we did not see a year ago. The big question mark in this game will be can the Browns be a dominant defense in a road contest, something they could not do a season ago? The Browns will try to wreck some havoc with their edge rushers against Jags right tackle Anton Harrison, who struggled in their opener. How well Harrison can hold up may be the difference between a win and a loss in this game. The Browns are good at slowing down opposing tight ends, so it could be another slow game for Evan Engram, which means one of the receivers mentioned above, or Christian Kirk will need to make some plays. Look for Travis Etienne and Bigsby to potentially be featured more as receivers in this contest as well. Much like we mentioned in our breakdown with the Seahawks, the Jaguars and Lawrence need to be patient in this game and not force things down the field that are not there. If the Jags can win the turnover battle, they will win this football game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone under in 4 of the last 5 games for the Jaguars
– The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Jaguars
There was a post out this week that said the downfall of Deshaun Watson needs to be studied in academia. Without getting too crazy, this could honestly be the last start for Watson in Cleveland if he can’t look decent against a banged up and very mediocre Jaguars defense. We’re looking at another low total here, but just because the Browns defense was so bad on the road a season ago, rather than playing the full total, we’re going to play just the Browns under. It’s a little dicey with the Browns tackles back in the lineup and a thin secondary for the Jaguars, but just like in our first game breakdown, let’s see if Deshaun Watson can beat us.
BetCrushers Take: Cleveland Browns – Under Total 20.5
Jaguars 21, Browns 17
Teaser Bet
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys
vs. 
and 
vs.
Las Vegas Raiders (0-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (0-1)
Sunday September 15th
1:00pm
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Baltimore Ravens -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under 41.5 (-110)
New Orleans Saints (1-0) vs. Dallas Cowboys (1-0)
Sunday September 15th
8:20pm
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Dallas Cowboys -6 (-120)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Ravens -2.5 and Cowboys pick
The Baltimore Ravens return home after a tough loss against the top-ranked Chiefs and will take on another AFC West opponent when they welcome in the Las Vegas Raiders. The Dallas Cowboys also return home, although they are feeling good after stomping the Cleveland Browns in what was originally thought to be a tough road matchup. They’ll take on the New Orleans Saints, the team that was arguably the most balanced and impressive during the opening week of the season. Both of these heavy favorites could be in for tougher matchups than much of the public believes, but can they at least hold serve at home and come away with important wins?
The Raiders offense, and quarterback Gardner Minshew were one of the more disappointing units of week number one. Things don’t get much easier as they have to travel to take on an always feisty Baltimore defense in week two. The Raiders offensive line did not look great against the Chargers, and the Ravens can bring some pressure up the gut and off of the edge. For Vegas to have a shot, their line absolutely has to play better. They need to be able to run the ball at least enough to stay ahead of the sticks, and Minshew has to have time to get the ball to his playmakers on the outside. If the Raiders have an advantage, it is in that area as the Ravens secondary is not as deep as it has been the past few seasons. Keep an eye on rookie tight end Brock Bowers as well. If Bowers can be productive, it may force the Ravens to utilize safety Kyle Hamilton in more of a matchup function. That’s not what they’d prefer to do, as they like to move him around a lot more. On the other side of the ball, this Raiders defense also struggled last week, particularly against the run. That’s not ideal when you’re facing Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. While the Ravens offensive line is also not as strong as it has been, Henry should find some success if the Ravens actually try to get him in a bit of a rhythm. Head coach John Harbaugh was quoted as saying, “We didn’t bring Henry in to have him be a 20 carry back”. Um, well then why exactly did you bring him in? Anyhow, it’s no secret the Ravens would prefer Lamar Jackson not have to carry the ball 20 times on his end, so look for that concerted effort from the team at least this week to get Henry going. The strong play from second tight end Isaiah Likely should make this Ravens passing game better throughout the season. With Mark Andrews certain to be more involved in the passing game, and the threat of Likely, the wide receivers should also benefit. It might be a situation where it’s a different receiving leader each week for this Baltimore team, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Wow, the Saints exceeded expectations and looked absolutely dominant in their opener. Clearly, that’s what we’re going to get again this weekend, right? They may find the sledding a little tougher when they face a Cowboys defense that has been downright nasty at home. The Dallas pass rush was relentless against the Browns weakened offensive line, and now they’ll get a crack at a Saints line that ranks in the bottom half and probably third of the league. They did well against the Panthers, but Carolina does not have much to offer in terms of a consistent pass rush, unlike Micah Parsons and the Cowboys. Quarterback Derek Carr was surgical against the Panthers, but something tells us he could make some mistakes against the opportunistic secondary in Dallas. The best thing New Orleans can do in this game is establish Alvin Kamara and the running game early if they want to slow down the aggressiveness of the Cowboys. That, or hit a big play over the top early like they did to Rasheed Shaheed to start their season. If you’ve followed us the last couple of years, you also know our advice for New Orleans in every game is to utilize Taysom Hill as often as possible. That really holds true in a matchup like this one. The Cowboys offense looked electric, as Dak Prescott rewarded Jerry Jones for that huge payday looking surgical in his own right. He could get the Saints minus oft-injured cornerback Marshon Lattimore, which would make for a potentially huge CeeDee Lamb game. The Cowboys don’t scare anyone with their running game, but with defensive tackle Khalen Saunders also potentially missing this game, they should be able to do enough to help the cause.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Ravens are 11-3 straight up in their last 14 home games
– The Raiders are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 road games
– The Cowboys were 8-0 straight up at home during the 2023 season
– The Cowboys are 16-1 straight up in their last 17 home games
– The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
The teaser legs in week number two are plentiful and they almost see so apparently easy that it can be make you a little nauseous. Don’t overthink these games or analyze them to the point of paralysis. The percentages of home team victories as well as the numbers all getting below a field goal make these all teasable. Were expecting the Raiders to put up a good fight, but the Ravens should handle business when it’s all said and done. In the other contest, either the Saints or the Cowboys are going to be 2-0, and we’ll take the home team that is undoubtedly better every day of the week. Their home record the last few seasons has been absolutely dominant. In the Raiders/Ravens game, we’re also going to play the total over. You can stumble over 41.5 points, and because we expect the Raiders to be competitive we’ll take a shot here.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Ravens -2.5 and Cowboys to pick / Total Over Raiders/Ravens 41.5
Ravens 29, Raiders 24 / Cowboys 30, Saints 22
Teaser Bet
Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans
Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Chicago Bears (1-0) vs. Houston Texans (1-0)
Sunday September 15th
8:20pm
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Houston Texans -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons (0-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)
Monday September 16th
8:15pm
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Texans -.5 and Eagles -.5
The primetime Sunday and Monday night games feature a lot of star power and on paper look pretty enticing. The point spreads for these games don’t reflect that sentiment as the Texans will host the very fortunate Chicago Bears on Sunday, and the Eagles will face the Atlanta Falcons on Monday. The Bears are underdogs for the first time with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams making his national standalone debut, and the Falcons look to avoid and 0-2 start against one of the more impressive teams in week one in Philadelphia. Will one of these underdogs be able to steal a road win, or are they simply too large of a mismatch for an upset?
Had the Chicago Bears lost their opener to the Titans, which they absolutely should have, what would the feelings be on Caleb Williams debut? Things are relatively cheery in Chicago, but Williams was absolutely not good in his debut. Now he has to go on the road against what will probably end up being one of the better defenses in the league, and most likely without veteran wideout Keenan Allen who did not practice this week. We won’t know for a while if Williams is a generational QB, a bust, or something in between, but we do know this is a tough ask of a rookie quarterback in primetime. The Bears would love to run the ball with their stable of backs, but the Texans are flat out tough stopping the run. If the Bears have to be one dimensional, things could get ugly for Williams and the passing game. Look for the Bears to start out very conservatively in an effort to get Williams comfortable, and look for the Texans to be very aggressive on the defensive side of the ball. Offensively, the Texans were able to run the football with Joe Mixon, which they should be able to do again in this matchup. The Bears defense is better geared at slowing down passing games than running games. Houston proved they would be patient and take what was given to them, which was essentially soft boxes to run against. Mixon could very easily be in line for another 100 yard performance again. The Bears have a good secondary, but it’s a real question to ask if any team has a secondary that can clamp down on all four receiving weapons of the Texans? That would be Collins, Diggs, Dell and Schultz. The Bears won their opener and the games they captured last season by opportunistic turnovers and defense. Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has already proven he’s not careless with the football. If the Bears don’t get takeaways, they could be in a lot of trouble in this game.
The Falcons offense struggled in their opener, and it’s hard to know much of that may have been them, versus how much was a potentially very good Steelers defense? They’ll face an Eagles defense that looks to be a little tougher than the group we saw fade down the stretch of last season in what is sure to be a fired up Lincoln Financial Field. The Falcons offense can be very good when it compartmentalize them, however this looks like a tough matchup for them again. The Eagles big men on the interior did a decent job slowing down Josh Jacobs for most of their matchup, so it could be another game of somewhat tough sledding for running back Bijan Robinson. Where the Eagles are vulnerable however, is by running backs out of the backfield as receivers, which Robinson is very capable of. This could be a game where we see Robinson catch a lot of passes, even if he struggles on the ground. The Falcons can attack a still questionable Eagles secondary with their receiving weapons, including tight end Kyle Pitts, but that’s only if they’re able to protect new quarterback Kirk Cousins. The veteran was under heavy pressure from T.J. Watt and the Steelers and never looked comfortable in that game. It’s understandable Cousins might be a bit skiddish and not completely recovered from his achilles injury. Many analysts notice a different stance and dropback from Cousins as he looked challenged in terms of movement. For a QB that was never extremely mobile, losing any mobility could prove challenging. Look for the Eagles defense to bring a lot of pressure in an effort to rattle Cousins much like they did the past couple of seasons when they faced him as a Viking. The Falcons defense looked pretty good with their new additions, but again, how much of that is them, and how much of that is a pretty weak Steelers offense? We’ll find out quickly, as this Eagles offense can be downright scary with Saquon Barkley fresh off his three touchdown debut for the Iggles. Jalen Hurts looks rejuvinated, and it’s hard not to look great when you’ve got a great offensive line and weapons galore.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Texans are 7-2 straight up in their last 9 home games
– The Bears are 2-11 straight up in their last 13 road games
– The Falcons are 1-5 straight up and ATS in their last 6 games
– The Falcons are 2-13 straight up in their last 15 road games
– The Eagles are 8-0 in their last 8 games in September
The primetime games to start the season have been pretty compelling and competitive, a nice change from a lot of what we got a season ago. That could change in week two though as these are simply mismatches between opponents. The Texans are not only in a different class than the Bears, they are going to be nearly impossible to matchup with. (That could be said against most teams). The Eagles are going to make Kirk Cousins look old and like a bad signing in this particular game. The Falcons can still be fine throughout this season, but it’s not going to look good on Monday Night Football. The home teams roll here and are perfect partners based on the number for a two team teaser.
