Previous Week Plays – 3-2
Season Record – 31-33
Week 17 Recap:
Our hopes of getting above the .500 mark before the end of the regular season decreased a bit, despite a modest profit on the weekend as a whole. We finished at 3-2, taking our yearly record to a disturbing 31-33, and still solidly in the red. The week started out with a big miss, as we thought getting double-digit points with the Jets would be enough in a divisional game, but they were curb-stomped and lucky to keep it within 30 points. We also lost as we took the bait with a low total in the Jaguars and Titans game. Mason Rudolph couldn’t do enough to push it over as the early games were not kind. Fortunately, we bounced back later in the day and the weekend as our teaser bet with the Eagles and Dolphins hitting. We were a little nervous there with backup quarterback play, but ultimately, they were playing dead dogs and got the easy wins in both cases. We had two games against the spread in the NFC North and hit both, as the Vikings and Lions each handled business. Normally, we’ll take a 3-2 weekend any day, but when you’re trying to make up ground it’s just not enough.
Week 18 Picks:
You might notice our breakdowns are a little vague for 3 of our 4 wagers in our week 18 picks. That’s simply because we’re not completely sure of what will be happening with teams in terms of playing starters. In realistic terms, that basically means we don’t know how much time we need to spend breaking down Jimmy Garoppolo and Tutu Atwell, rather than the game collectively. Overall we’ve got a total of 4 plays. One against the spread in the game of the week, a game total, a team total, and a teaser bet that is one that will make a “sharp” gambler turn in their grave. What the heck, it’s week 18 after all?
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
vs. 
New Orleans Saints (5-11) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
Sunday January 5th
1:00pm
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13.5 (-110)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
In one of the few games with potential playoff ramifications, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the New Orleans Saints. The Bucs have a lot to play for as they look to clinch the NFC South and quiet some doubters, while the Saints appear once again to be limping to the finish line with a slew of injuries. Is this a trap for the Bucs against their divisional foe, or will they run away with this game on the way to the playoffs?
In the 2024 NFL season, the Saints offense will always have week one and two of the season to reminisce upon. The team that takes the field Sunday for the season finale will be a far cry from those monster point outputs in the beginning of the year. Although there are some murmurs of Derek Carr trying to play, it looks as though Spencer Rattler will get the start again. Chances are he’ll be playing without the top four skill position players on the roster yet again. (It’s possible Chris Olave may play, but that seems more unlikely than it is likely to happen). Additionally, the offensive line looks as though it will be without a pair of starters again as well. That’s good news for a Buccaneers defense that is also a little banged up, particularly in the secondary. It shouldn’t matter a lot though, as it’s tough to figure out how the Saints will move the ball consistently with all of their injuries. Short of hitting a big play to a banged of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, where are yards and points coming from?
Unlike the Saints offense, Tampa Bay has their biggest pieces together on the offensive side of the ball and they’ve been rolling. In fact, they’ve continued to rack up points and yardage despite not having Chris Godwin, and more recently Cade Otton unavailable. There are two main reasons for the continued success for this Bucs’ offense. First, Baker Mayfield is playing at a ridiculously high level. If he had a few less turnovers, we’d have to add him into the conversation with the big three quarterbacks in the AFC. In fact, he’s one of the biggest snubs of the Pro Bowl, and seems like the type to take on some extra motivation with that snubbing. The other reason the Bucs are rolling is the play of their offensive line, and their running game. They have morphed from a team unable to run the football, to one of the best rushing teams in the league. Rachaad White continues to be a big contributor, but it’s Bucky Irving that is really making waves in the backfield. He has some of the best advanced metrics at the position in the league, and if you’ve followed his weekly yardage totals, they just keep rising steadily. Facing one of the worst rush defenses in the league, Irving should have yet another good game. With the Saints attempting to slow down Irving, Mayfield should have little trouble throwing the ball around. A lot has been mentioned of incentives for Mike Evans as well, so don’t be shocked if he is peppered with a ton of targets.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 games for the Buccaneers
If any team is going to coast through week 18 it’s got to be the New Orleans Saints. They’ve got nothing to play for, and really even playing spoiler isn’t that enticing as they’d just be doing the Falcons a favor if they win. Without their top players, this Saints team is just simply undermanned. It’s very tempting to also lay the big number with TB, but we’re going to stick with just backing their offense and their team total. The Bucs offense can put up 30 on anyone, and especially taking on a wounded and not very good defense at home, they should do just fine. Throw in some of that Baker revenge, and some incentives with Mike Evans and that’s all we need. A century for Evans, a century for Irving, Bucs by a lot.
BetCrushers Take: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Team Total – Over 27.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, New Orleans Saints 13
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
vs. 
Minnesota Vikings (14-2) vs. Detroit Lions (14-2)
Sunday January 5th
8:20pm
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Detroit Lions -3 (-105)
Over/Under 55.5 (-110)
The Sunday Night Football regular season finale gives us two teams fighting for the the crown in the brutally strong NFC North. The Lions continue to roll along despite missing several key players on their roster, while the Vikings have now strung together nine wins in a row. It almost seems unfair that one of these teams has to lose and get into the playoffs as a wild card. Which team will punch their ticket as the division winner, and who will fall all the way to the fifth seed when the regular season
Go ahead and try to pick apart Sam Darnold’s season this year and you’ll find it’s really difficult to do. Darnold has earned himself a nice payday and would love to close out the season with a win and strong showing against the Lions. He’s set up to do so, even in a tough environment in what will be a crazy Ford Field in primetime. Darnold has played well against good defenses, and at this point in time, we can’t really consider the Lions a good defense. The team won’t make excuses, but we’ll go ahead and do it for them. This team simply lost too many good to great players on that side of the ball. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn continues to try to mesh together a game plan, but he simply doesn’t have the horses remaining. The Vikings pose a big challenge because they’re getting solid offensive line play, they’re running the ball effectively, and can spread it around to multiple weapons when throwing. The Lions were built on stopping the run, then making splash plays in defending the pass. They have still managed to make some plays, mainly from safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, but the rest of the unit is severely flawed. Without Alim McNiell, the run defense is not nearly as stout as it was earlier in the season, and the lack of playmakers at linebacker and corner is really hurting them. Both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison should dominate in this game, and we might even see a little revenge from T.J. Hockenson as well. We’ve watched the Lions struggle to stop mediocre offenses of late, so it’s difficult to imagine them stopping one of the better offenses in the league.
The good news for the Lions as they struggle through trying to get some defensive players like Alex Anzalone back into the lineup is they can score with the best of them. Unlike on the defensive side of the ball, the offense is healthy, and despite not having David Montgomery, they’re still cruising. They’ll be tested in this game, as the Vikings are allowing less than 4 yards per carry to opponents, but Jahmyr Gibbs is one of those elite handful of running backs that can run on any defense. The Lions are also one of a few teams that can push a unit like the Vikings around at the line of scrimmage a bit. The key for Detroit is going to be taking care of the football in the passing game. The Vikings will bring a blitz heavy approach, and Jared Goff has to do what he’s done all season, which is make good decisions and get the ball out to his playmakers. (We’ll throw out that Texans game). Like the Vikings, the Lions have the luxury of spreading the ball around to multiple players, and with the Vikings pressure he will have some one-on-one matchups throughout the game. The Minnesota defense is a strong unit, but make no mistake about it, it’s always going to be advantage Lions offense no matter who the opponent.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Vikings have won 9 games in a row straight up
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games for the Lions
If the regular season has to end, it might as well go out with a bang. This game is exactly that, and should live up to two teams giving it all to win the division and get a home game or two in the playoffs. Realistically, it’s hard to say for sure who should win? The Lions offense is an absolute force, but can their defense get some turnovers or stops? Homefield has to count for something here too. This just truly feels like a coin flip game, and we actually give an ever so slight edge to the Vikings coming away with the win. Getting the full field goal just seems too good to pass up, even in a game with a total in the mid 50’s. We’re going to enjoy watching this one, and will enjoy it even more if the Vikings can cover the number.
BetCrushers Take: Minnesota Vikings +3
Minnesota Vikings 32, Detroit Lions 30
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
vs. 
Carolina Panthers (4-12) vs. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Sunday January 5th
1:00pm
Mercedes-Benz Superdome – Atlanta, GA
Atlanta Falcons -8 (-110)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
The Carolina Panthers finish their season in Atlanta, taking on a Falcon team that is clinging on to slim hope for a playoff spot in the tournament. With Michael Penix, Jr. now taking over as the starter for the Falcons, a pair of young QB’s will face each other for the first time in this new NFC South rivalry. The Falcons should be able to beat the Panthers, but will it be enough for them to make it into the playoffs?
The Carolina Panthers season, and specifically Bryce Young have seen their share of ups and downs, and there is little doubt they’re probably ready to call it a day. They’ve got one more assignment to finish up the year, and it’s to play spoiler and try to take down the Atlanta Falcons on their turf. The Panthers will go to battle without Chuba Hubbard, who was team MVP this season, but not all hope is lost. As many have noticed, with the exception of one bad outing, Bryce Young has played solid football in the second half of the season. Wide receiver Adam Thielen looks like he did four years ago, and the offense has actually been respectable. They’ll be facing a Falcons defense that is really tightened things up over the last month of the season on their end though. This is mainly the result of an improved pass rush. Young will need to make good reads and get the ball out quickly, and someone in the backfield needs to pick up a little slack. The Falcons will likely try to cover Thielen with A.J. Terrell, who just zipped up Terry McLaurin, so there likely will need to be someone else in the passing game who needs to step up.
In moving from Kirk Cousins to Michael Penix, Jr., one thing that happened quietly is the team is leaning even more heavily on Bijan Robinson. That’s a good thing, as the more times he can get his hands on the ball, the better for this offense. Robinson has a dream matchup against a Panthers defense that is widely regarded as the worst in the league. It doesn’t help that the team could be without Jaycee Horn and Josey Jewell who aren’t practicing as of Thursday. You’d have to believe the team would like to see Penix get some work in the passing game, whether for the playoffs this year, or just in general as the team looks ahead to the 2025 season. This is a great game for that to happen, as the Panthers don’t rush the quarterback well, or really cover either. Drake London should continue his strong season, and we even saw some glimpses of Kyle Pitts behind Penix when it mattered a week ago. At the end of the day though, there is little reason to be too risky with Penix in a game the Falcons have to win. Look for a heavy workload for Robinson and Tyler Allgeier as the Falcons will look to secure their own win, then see how their division mates are doing in Tampa against the Saints.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Falcons are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Falcons are 2-5 straight up in their last 7 games
Call us crazy, but this spread seems a little too high. With that being said, it’s tough to pull the trigger on the Carolina Panthers who have little to play for, and little talent as well. The Falcons have all of the pressure, and a rookie quarterback, but it shouldn’t matter as far as getting the win. This Panthers team is simply too void of talent to compete, even against a less than amazing Falcons group. It’s not easy to put the wager in on the under either, with the Panthers defense being what it is, but if they can just keep Atlanta in the 20’s, this game should be able to stay under the total.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Under 49
Atlanta Falcons 24, Carolina Panthers 18
Teaser Bet
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
Saturday January 4th
8:00pm
Acrisure Stadium – Pittsburgh, PA
Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks (9-7) vs. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
Sunday January 5th
4:25pm
SoFi Stadium – Los Angeles, CA
Seattle Seahawks -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 39 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 and Seattle Seahawks -.5
We’re looking to go on a teaser bet winning streak to wind down the season, and will be pairing a couple of touchdown plus favorites in week 16. The Cincinnati Bengals are looking to keep their slim playoff hopes alive against a Browns team that has seemingly thrown in the towel for the rest of the year. The very woulded Detroit Lions have a road matchup against the Bears in the NFC North, that all of a sudden means a lot in the crowded division.
At the start of the Saturday evening game between the Bengals and Steelers, Pittsburgh will know to some extent how important their game is with the Bengals, based on the Ravens result. We all know Baltimore isn’t losing to the Browns though, so really what Pittsburgh is playing for is to take on that Ravens team, or to switch seeds and get the Houston Texans. One thing we all know, is the Cincinnati Bengals have to win to have any shot of trying to sneak into the playoffs. They should be focused and ready to go, as playing their rival is probably just added motivation to trying to keep playoff hopes alive. Running back Chase Brown was injured last week, so we’ll see if he can go and how effective he can be. The Steelers defense has faltered a bit down the stretch, but they’re still pretty good against the run. Unfortunately for them, that just means Joe Burrow will need to throw more, and that’s something he’s doing as well as anyone in the league, and really, ever. The usual dup of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will provide a challenge for Pittsburgh, but don’t overlook the emergence of tight end Mike Gesicki, who could play another big role this weekend. For the Steelers, they’ll want to get George Pickens going again after working him back into the lineup from his injury. We’ll see heavy doses of both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren though, as the Bengals still struggle to stop the run. The Steelers offense is very mediocre, so let’s see how much they can attack the very poor Cincinnati defense.
The Seahawks aren’t going to be dancing this season, which has to be a disappointment for a team that has some nice pieces on both sides of the ball. They will play out their season looking to take down a Rams team that they have not had a lot of success against in recent years. We do know the Seahawks are planning to play their starters, and they have some players, including Geno Smith with some incentives in reach. The Rams on the other hand, are resting up for the playoffs and we know guys like Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are probably not going to see the field. While Jimmy G is a capable backup quarterback, it’s hard to see the Rams having enough with their backups to take on the starters of the Seahawks. LA is likely going to employ a pretty vanilla game plan, and try to get out of the game without any injuries or issues. The Seahawks have plenty in the running game with Zach Charbonnet, and their receivers are a lot for anyone to cover. Scoring shouldn’t be too difficult on the Seattle side of the ball. The Rams will be able to do some things certainly, but it won’t be enough for them to light up the scoreboard.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games
– The Steelers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Seahawks are 8-1 straight up in their last 9 road games
– The Rams have won 5 games in a row straight up
Let’s just get it out there right now that you don’t need to message us to tell us this is not a good teaser bet. We’re well aware of crossing zero, etc. etc. We’re also aware the Steelers have generally owned the Bengals during the Joe Burrow era in Cincinnati and the Rams have owned the Seahawks during that time as well. So if you’re fully into trends and rules of teaser betting this one clearly isn’t for you. Every once in a while you gotta split 10’s against the houses 7, right? OK, that’s a terrible idea, but you get the point. The Bengals should get the win, as should the Seahawks. We’re going to simplify it that way and see if we can get another teaser win, in an unconventional, and unrecommended way.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Bengals +5.5 and Seahawks -.5
Bengals 26, Steelers 23 / Seahawks 27, Rams 20
