Previous Week Plays – 1-2
Season Record – 25-27
Week 14 Recap:
As has been the case all season we took a step forward, then another back after week 13. Our posted plays went 1-2 with our picks against the spread both missing. There is one small silver lining, and that is we hit the rare teaser bet, something that has eluded us for most of the season. The Falcons were in a battle with the Vikings for three and a half quarters, but a costly Kirk Cousins interception in the fourth quarter doomed their chances to win and cover. The Eagles grabbed a first half lead against the very feisty Panthers, but not enough to cover the touchdown we needed in the first half. The teaser bet was pretty solid throughout, although the Buccaneers did let the Raiders get back into their game for a bit, before finally putting them away. The losses keep stinging, but the journey marches on.
Week 15 Picks:
We found a few spots we like, mixed with a play against the spread, a team total and a couple of wagers in one of the possibly less interesting games of the weekend. We’re at the point in the NFL season when it becomes fade the teams that are ready for Cancun, and that’s exactly what we’re doing. Let’s see how focused these teams are with very little to play for?
Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks
vs. 
Green Bay Packers (9-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (8-5)
Sunday December 15th
8:20pm
Lumen Field – Seattle, WA
Green Bay Packers -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
Two teams who have given NFL fans some classic football games over the past couple of decades hit the field again on Sunday. The Packers and Seahawks are both very much anticipating a postseason berth, and a win this weekend would do wonders for each. Will we get another classic matchup in a game to impact NFC playoff seeding?
Jordan Love is becoming one of the more polarizing quarterbacks in the league, as he has his supporters, and some increasingly loud critics. Speaking of loud, he’ll have a chance to move the needle one direction or the other in raucous Lumen Field amongst the 12th man noise in this game. A lot is going to fall on Love to produce against a Seahawks team that seems like they are hitting their stride at the right time. Green Bay is one of the teams in the league that has the luxury to generally run it or throw it to move the chains on offense, and in this matchup they’re probably going to need to throw it. After a rough start to the season, the Seahawks behind some ridiculously good play of late from Leonard Williams have been really good at stopping the run. Josh Jacobs is certain to get a workman-like carry load, but carving out a lot of yardage may not happen. Chances are, there are going to be plenty of third down situations for the Packers where they will need to throw to keep possession and get some points. That may not happen with the edge receivers, but tight end Tucker Kraft and slot receiver Jayden Reed, who was shutout a week ago, could be big factors against a defense that struggles covering in the middle of the field. As is often the case with Jordan Love, he’s going to try to make some plays in the passing game. Can he make enough without giving the ball to the Seahawks for extra possessions?
The Seahawks offense looked great a week ago as Zach Charbonnet carved up the Cardinals in relief duty of the inactive Kenneth Walker III. Charbonnet may have to shoulder the burden again as Walker looks iffy to go, but it’ll be tougher sledding against a Packers defense that has ranked well all season at stopping the run. Much could be said about Geno Smith and the Seahawks passing game that was similar to what was mentioned regarding Jordan Love and the Packers. Smith will sling it around and isn’t afraid to try to make some plays. He also needs to take care of the ball though in what should be a pretty close and competitive game. The Seahawks have also been dangerous in the middle of the field, as Jaxon Smith-Njigba has really emerged as a weapon for them over the last month or so of the season. The Packers will need to manufacture a pass rush, as Smith’s mistakes are usually tied into being under pressure. They’re unlikely to do that against left tackle Charles Cross who is really developing into a good player, but they may be able to do so on the interior or other side of the Seahawks line.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Packers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Seahawks
– The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the NFC West
– The Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
This should be one of the best games of the weekend, and chances are it’s going to be really close. You could certainly argue that taking the points is the way to go in an expected close contest, and you wouldn’t be wrong. This number sitting still at 2.5 is begging to take the Packers and we’re taking the bait. The Seahawks are playing good football, but the Packers are the better team. With both needing a win, we should see a great effort from each club. This isn’t the Aaron Rodgers Packers team, but Green Bay has dominated the Seahawks in the recent years. We mentioned Jordan Love being polarizing, and we’re either going to love him or hate him for a few hours on Sunday. Road chalk in the NFL… What could possibly go wrong?
BetCrushers Take: Green Bay Packers -2.5
Green Bay Packers 24, Seattle Seahawks 21
Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (8-5) vs. New York Giants (2-11)
Sunday December 15th
1:00pm
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
Baltimore Ravens -16 (-115)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
The great mismatch on paper of the weekend is the near 16 point favorite Baltimore Ravens traveling up I-95 to take on the woeful New York Giants in East Rutherford. The Ravens are working towards a playoff spot and some momentum, as the Giants are working towards their winter vacation plans. Do the Giants stand a chance of pulling off a massive upset or is this a quick and easy business trip for the Ravens?
How much of a breakdown do we really need to do with this Ravens offense against the Giants defense? New York can’t stop the run, so right off the bat, that’s going to cause serious issues with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. We threw Jackson in, only because he tends to thrive most against opponents who aren’t as familiar with him as they adjust to his unique skill set. New York is also not particularly great at stopping opposing passing offenses either, so with Rashod Bateman returning to the lineup opposite Zay Flowers, when the Ravens need to throw they should be fine. That doesn’t even take into account the tight end position, although the Giants have done a decent job at slowing down that position. In what would seem like an alternate universe, the big question for the Ravens in this game might be whether or not Justin Tucker can kick field goals in the wind and weather? That’s of course if the Giants can get them to some 4th downs, which will be tough.
The Giants will go to battle for the third week in a row with Drew Lock leading the charge. Maybe. He didn’t practice Thursday, and there is a chance he won’t go. For this offense, it’s hard to say it really matters much? Neither he, nor Tommy Devito have been able to generate much since the release of Daniel Jones, and that’s not likely to improve against the Ravens. The big reason for that would be the Ravens are great at making teams one dimensional. Tyrone Tracy, Jr. has had a nice rookie season, but good luck running on the Ravens behind the patchwork that is the New York Giants offensive line. That’s going to put immense pressure on Lock or Devito to carry the offense, and neither are capable, even against a Ravens secondary that has been pretty poor throughout the season. The Giants may be able to sneak in some plays to Malik Nabers and their receivers here and there, but definitely not enough to sustain offense throughout the entire game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Ravens are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Ravens are 13-1 straight up in their last 14 games vs. NFC opponents
– The Giants are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Giants are 0-7 straight up in their last 7 home games
The Ravens have been known as a team that often can play down to their competition. Somehow they lost to the Raiders this year if memory serves us correctly. This is a totally different situation. The Giants are dead, the fans are over it, and there are some lame duck players and probably coaches on the roster. Perhaps more importantly, they have no offensive line, and bad quarterback play. This is a horrible combination against any team, but particularly one with a good defensive line. The spread is this high for a reason, and if we had to bet it, we’re taking the Ravens every day of the week. We’re going to guard against a possibly backdoor type situation, or fluky special teams, or pick-six type situation. Let’s play the Ravens team total over. It’s sitting at a very manageable number in a game that has a spread near 17 points.
BetCrushers Take: Baltimore Ravens – Team Total – Over 28.5
Baltimore Ravens 37, New York Giants 13
Washington Commanders vs. New Orleans Saints
vs. 
Washington Commanders (8-5) vs. New Orleans Saints (5-8)
Sunday December 15th
1:00pm
Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Washington Commanders -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
At the beginning of the season the Saints would have actually been small favorites in their home matchup with the Washington Commanders in week 15. Fast forward to Sunday, and we now see the visiting Commanders as greater than a touchdown favorite in the Superdome. Washington wants a win to inch closer to the playoffs, while the Saints are clinging to faint hopes of still winning out and grabbing a spot in the tourney.
The Washington Commanders offense isn’t quite as electric as it was in the first half of the season, but they’re poised to finish the year strong. For starters, quarterback Jayden Daniels appears to be healthy again, which really gives this unit a whole different dynamic to defend. Daniels should find some time to throw and run against the Saints very mediocre defense. The running piece may not be completely necessary as an also healthy Brian Robinson, Jr. should be in line for a really nice day. With Austin Ekeler on the shelf, Robinson will get a lot of work, and he’ll be facing a Saints run defense that now ranks 30th over the last 8 weeks of the season. When they do need to throw, they should find some success working both the boundaries with their receivers, and the interior with tight end Zach Ertz. With Paulson Adebo on IR, and Marshon Lattimore now on the Washington roster, the secondary for New Orleans is very beatable. They want to protect that secondary by providing a great pass rush, however that’s been a challenge for most of the year. Chase Young broke through last week, but he was going against arguably the easiest assignmet of the week across the league. We’ll see if we can do that against Brandon Coleman and Nick Allegretti. The Saints will bring some fight, it’s really a question of whether or not they have enough talent on this side of the ball?
Speaking of talent on one side of the ball… The Saints on offense will be without four of their top five skill players, as they’ll be without QB Derek Carr (despite saying he could play), Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Taysom Hill. This leaves Alvin Kamara as the only proven weapon really on the roster. We’ll see more of guys like Kendre Miller and Foster Moreau as a result, but these aren’t the type of players that keep defensive coordinators up at night. With the exception of defensive tackle Johnathan Allen, the Commanders defense is healthy and should matchup against what the Saints put out on whatever that depth chart ends up looking like. The biggest question of course is who will get the start for quarterback, Spencer Rattler or more likely Jake Haener? Neither is a very good option to put out there, and we can expect to see some pressure from players like Dante Fowler, Jr. in an effort to create some havoc. Even with Derek Carr in the lineup last week, the Saints struggled to really move the ball well against a pretty bad New York Giant defense. The Commanders aren’t a top tier defense, but they are certainly better than the Giants. Without Carr in the lineup it’s just really tough to see where the yards and points are going to come from for the Saints?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Commanders are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games
– The Commanders are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. the Saints
– The Saints are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games
We’re fading the Giants due to bad quarterback play, and this is what this game is all about to us. The Saints can’t possibly move the ball with Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler as we’ve already seen. When you add in the loss of guys like Olave, Shaheed and Hill, there just isn’t enough there. The Commanders should be in control of this game, but we’re attacking it a couple of different ways, rather than the spread with the hook. Somehow the Saints point total is at 17.5. How can this be the case with Haener/Rattler and no weapons?? We’ll go under here. And we’ll also play a teaser with the Minnesota Vikings and see how that goes.
BetCrushers Take: New Orleans – Team Total – Under 17.5 / Tease – Commanders -1.5 and Vikings -.5
Washington Commanders 23, Saints 10 / Commanders 23, Saints 10 and Vikings 27, Bears 21
