Previous Week Plays – 4-2
Season Record – 36-32-1
Week 13 Recap:
We turned in a respectable 4-2 mark last week, but it felt a little deflating because of how the journey played out. We started and finished the weekend with losses, which is why things seemed down, despite sandwiching all winners in between. We jumped on the Thursday Night Football game and backed the Cowboys as heavy favorites and as part of a teaser with the Jaguars on Monday Night Football. The Seahawks battled all game and the Cowboys weren’t able to continue their home dominance. They did win and cover the teaser, however that was destroyed when the Jaguars missed a field goal and lost their quarterback to finish the week. Everything else was all good sandwiched in between. The Dolphins continued their spree of going over their team total, as did the 49ers (more to come on these), and the Niners handled business as we expected versus the Eagles. The Jaguars did at least go past their total so the game wasn’t a total wash. A winning weekend in the books, we’ll take it, although it should have been better.
Week 14 Picks:
We mentioned more to come regarding the Dolphins and 49ers team totals, and well, if it ain’t broke we’re not fixing it. This is honestly one of the longest “streaks” of a specific wager we’ve played this late into the season, but they keep hitting, so we have to keep playing. Other than that, we’re playing a couple of totals/games where the line moved, so if you don’t believe in playing the best number possible, you won’t want to tail these wagers. After winning a couple of teaser bets, we’ve lost our last two, so let’s see if we can get back on track there, and with five total bets on the table, let’s have a winning weekend.
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
vs. 
Detroit Lions (9-3) vs. Chicago Bears (4-8)
Sunday December 10th
1:00pm
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Detroit Lions -3 (-115)
Over/Under 43 (-110)
The Detroit Lions face a tough divisional road challenge when they head to Chicago to take on the Bears in Soldier Field. The Lions are looking to string consecutive wins together and keep a semi-comfortable lead on first place in a division that has seen the other three teams showing some fight. Justin Fields is still on a potential audition tour and a win against the first place Lions could go a long way toward determining his future with the Bears.
Earlier in the season you would probably expect the Lions offense to have their way with the Chicago Bears defense in any fashion they chose. Fast forward to this weekend and things may not be quite so easy for the Lions against a defense that has found a new identity and confidence. The main reason for this is their secondary getting healthy and the addition of pass rusher Montez Sweat opposite Yannick Ngakoue. The Bears were already playing well against the run, and with those improvements they’re now playing much better against the pass as well. This will be a throwback NFC battle in the trenches as the offensive line for the Lions will have a physical matchup against the front four of the Bears. Center Frank Ragnow is “iffy” to go for the Lions, and if he’s out the interior of the line could have some challenges. The Lions want to run the ball as much as they possibly can, as always, and that won’t be a simple feat against the Bears. Chicago continues to be one of the tougher teams stopping the run having allowed only 948 yards on the year and a very stingy 3.4 yards per carry. Can former Bear David Montgomery impose his will and keep the Lions ground game solid? What he and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs can do with the rushing attack will be one of the key deciding factors in the outcome of the game. Jared Goff will find his spots when throwing, but as we’ve done this year, we have to point out both the recent increase in his turnovers, and his slightly downgraded play on the road as compared to playing at home. Detroit has kind of proven they can be their own worst enemy when they don’t take care of the ball. A clean game from Jared Goff likely means a win, some turnovers and the Bears can easily steal this one.
For the Bears offensively, this is why the organization brought in Justin Fields to be their potential franchise quarterback. He’s playing a defense that has been struggling as of late, with issues stopping the run and the pass. Fields can certainly do both, and as most teams do, the Lions will probably try to force Fields to beat them with his arm. Against mobile quarterbacks, the Lions have played a contain style of pass rush, and we can expect to see more of that, especially as they’ve had some dryspells in terms of getting after quarterbacks. Chicago will also try to run the ball with whichever running back is healthiest, and most efficient in their stable, but the Lions have also been pretty good at containing opposing ground games. Fields is going to have to be the running threat both with designed runs and in scramble situations for the Bears to move the chains consistently. Chicago cannot rely solely on that approach however, because the weakness in the Lions defense is giving up chunk plays in the passing game. Can D.J. Moore or tight end Cole Kmet find some open spots down the field to hit some big plays? If they don’t, it’s hard to envision Chicago being able to keep up with the Lions trading score for score.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 games for the Lions
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 games for the Bears vs. the Lions
This is one of those games where you could have snagged a little better number at the start of the week, but it’s still playable in our opinion. Weather could definitely be a factor, however both of these teams really move the football on the ground primarily anyhow. Even with the Bears defense playing better, this total seems to be too low. Is a good Detroit offense not going to get into the 20’s? And with the Bears offense playing better and against what’s proving to not be a great Lions defense, are they not able to get into the 20’s too? Both teams should run the ball effectively, and the wind could even end up helping a bit if the teams opt to forego long field goal opportunities. In a season of unders, let’s go with the over.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 43
Lions, 26, Bears 22
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
vs. 
Seattle Seahawks (6-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (9-3)
Sunday December 10th
4:05pm
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-105)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
The San Francisco 49ers can put a stranglehold on the NFC West with a second win over the Seattle Seahawks in the late window on Sunday afternoon. The Niners appear to be hitting their stride at the right time while the Seahawks are still looking to compete with the best teams in the league. Can Seattle provide real pressure in the division or have these teams already set their sights elsewhere in the playoff race?
After sputtering a bit, the Seahawks offense came to life in tough spot against the Cowboys, providing a glimpse of what they can be. We saw this matchup just a couple of weeks ago, so there isn’t a ton that needs to be added regarding their matchup against the Niners here, except what adjustments the Seahawks can make to be more aggressive, like they were against Dallas. We saw firsthand just how impactful D.K. Metcalf can be when he’s on his game, but the 49ers have mostly neutralized him, which will be the focal point again. Tyler Lockett has been kind of quiet of late, and they need some big play from the veteran in a game like this. We have watched Jaxon Smith-Njigba elevate his play, and the more he can be a factor, the better chance Seattle has of pulling the upset here. With Charvarius Ward seeing a lot of Metcalf, can Smith-Njigba and Lockett carry the receiving load? One thing we do know is the Seahawks offensive line is going to have to stand tall against the relentless rush of the 49ers defensive line. They did a nice job against Dallas, but it’s a little different matchup angle, as Dallas has a few key guys to contain, whereas the Niners can bring pressure from every position in the front seven. This isn’t a game where we’ll see a lot of running from the Seahawks, which is probably good considering their backfield is still banged up with DeeJay Dallas potentially being a featured player in the game.
Get those Brock Purdy for MVP tickets ready as the award that now seems destined for the quarterback on the best team in the league. The 49ers right now are just that, and Purdy is steering the offense masterfully. They carved up the Seahawks defense and at this point their plan is pretty obvious, it’s just a whole different thing trying to stop it. San Francisco is going to run Christian McCaffrey, and as long as that’s working, they’re going to continue it. Once you’ve committed to stopping CMC, Purdy then finds the open weapon who beats you in another fashion. The Seahawks will probably adjust a little bit from their recent meeting, but how the heck do you stop this group? Literally all four of their top weapons can wreck a defensive game plan. If that isn’t bad enough, the San Francisco offensive line is playing the best it has over the last month since getting Trent Williams back, making things even tougher. The Seahawks will have to determine if they want to be aggressive defensively, and risk getting scored on quickly, or if they’re going to allow the 49ers to get yardage in smaller increments to wear them down. If it feels like this is a lose-lose proposition, it’s because it really is. Knowing how things played out the last time around, one would think they’ll take their chances with trying to make some splash plays as their best opportunity to steal the road win.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the 49ers
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games for the Seahawks
– The total has gone over in 7 of the last 10 games for the 49ers vs. the Seahawks
Much like in their matchup with the Cowboys, the Seahawks could very well be a feisty opponent here for the 49ers. It’s not a huge sample size, but in games where teams got blown out by an opponent and then played them again in the same season, the underdog has covered at a pretty shockingly high rate. We’re definitely not about to step in front of the train that is the 49ers right now, even though this feels like a good spot to back the Seahawks, and “sharp” money seems to be coming in on Seattle. Instead, we’ll ride the wave with the San Francisco offense and expect they keep getting to the pay window for us there. This is offense is fun to watch, and even more fun to bet on right now.
BetCrushers Take: San Francisco 49ers – Team Total – Over 28.5
49ers 33, Seahawks 23
Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (4-8) vs. Miami Dolphins (9-3)
Monday December 11th
8:15pm
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Miami Dolphins -13.5 (-110)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)
Monday Night Football will showcase the Miami Dolphins offense against a Tennessee Titans team that is already in the role of spoiler for the remainder of the season. The Titans will once again evaluate what they have in rookie quarterback Will Levis, while trying to slow down the Dolphins on the other side of the ball. Mike Vrabel generally has his team competitive even when undermanned, but this is going to be a tough assignment in the national spotlight.
After a great start in his rookie debut, the Titans Will Levis has looked a lot more like a rookie since being handed the keys to the offense a month ago. We’ll stand by the theory it’s tough to grade Levis, Ryan Tannehill, or anyone playing QB in Tennessee behind an offensive line that simply doesn’t pass block very well. Combine that with really one viable receiving threat, and it’s just not a great plan to put up points, even with Derrick Henry still playing at a high level at the running back position. Speaking of Henry, he appears poised to play, which is good news for the Titans, as he’ll hopefully be able to provide some balance for Levis and keep the team out of 3rd and long situations. Henry may not have a huge game in terms of yardage against what’s been a pretty good Miami defense against the run, but he needs to rack up a lot of carries for them to be successful this week. The obvious reason is to keep the Dolphins offense off the field, but also to keep the pass rush of Miami off of his quarterback. If Henry can have a 20 carry for 65 yard stat line, that actually would be a good thing for the Titans. The matchup throwing the football is going to be a really tough assignment for a team that hasn’t proven they can do that against bad teams. Levis has been the third worst qualifying QB against pressure in the league, which is fairly understandable for someone so early in their career. The problem here is the Dolphins are currently ranked number one or two depending on your metrics on generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That could mean a lot of punts for the Titans, or even worse, potential turnovers. This is why it’s critical Tennessee stays in 3rd and shorts, rather than 3rd and longs, to give themselves a chance to move the sticks with quick throws and decisions from Levis. In mentioning their lack of receiving weapons, there’s also a big mismatch here against this Dolphins secondary, which looks completely different from earlier in the season with Jalen Ramsey anchoring a corner, and Xavien Howard healthier. Who is getting open to make catches for the Titans? These guys are professionals, and it’s a prime-time game, but it’s just hard to see Tennessee posing any real threat in combatting keeping up on the scoreboard.
We’ve broken Dolphins offense so many times it’s become mundane in nature when we discuss quick throws, explosive plays, etc. etc. The Titans defense has played hard this year as you’d expect a Mike Vrabel group to do, but this is a tough matchup for them. The Dolphins are obviously a tough matchup for any team, however they are especially difficult for this Tennessee group. There are three main reasons why the Dolphins should have little trouble moving the ball and scoring points against this team. The Titans strength on defense is in their interior, particular behind Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry. Miami on the other hand likes to run the football outside of the tackles, where they can both utilize the speed of Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane, and the extra space provided by the cushion defensive backs have to give to their wideouts. Next, the Titans don’t offer a consistent pass rush, and while Tua has been good against pressure, he’s been surgical when he has time to thrown. And finally, the Titans rank 27th in explosive plays allowed, and when you’re facing Tyreek Hill and company, it’s an explosive play waiting to happen with every snap. Add those three things up, and this just has mismatch written all over it.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Titans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games
– The Dolphins are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 home games
– The Dolphins are averaging 31 points per game in the 2023 season
As we stated above, the Dolphins are going to be a tough matchup for any defense, but they’re a particularly bad matchup for the Titans. Remember those NFL betting days of the 1990’s, 2000’s and even 2010’s when you never took a double-digit favorite? We’ve talked about this at length, but with the rules and the changing game, this isn’t your father’s NFL gambling. The Dolphins have covered large spreads already this year, and there is nothing at all to believe they won’t do it again. Sure, they could have an off day, maybe turn the ball over a bunch, or get backdoored, but the odds of that happening are far less than the odds of them handling business here. Remember, you can say all you want about Miami not beating any teams with a winning record, however you can’t question them taking care of business versus inferior opponents. They have taken the teams they should crush, and they have stomped them down all season long. We’re counting on that trend continuing, and after originally only planning to play their team total over, we’re now doubling up here and playing them against the spread as well. Dolphins in a rout.
BetCrushers Take: Miami Dolphins -13 and Miami Dolphins – Team Total – Over 30.5
Dolphins 38, Titans 14
Teaser Bet
Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Los Angeles Rams (6-6) vs. Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
Sunday December 10th
1:00pm
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 39 (-110)
Buffalo Bills (6-6) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
Sunday December 10th
4:25pm
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Jaguars -2.5 and Cowboys -2.5
In a weekend that features several matchups of backup quarterbacks, we’re locked in on a teaser bet that will have four of the league’s top leaders facing off. The Ravens and Lamar Jackson will take on Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams, and Josh Allen brings the Bills into Arrowhead for what seems like a yearly slugfest against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Two of the potentially better games of the weekend offer a good opportunity to tease up together.
The Ravens and Rams is one of the more interesting matchups of the weekend as these teams don’t often see each other head-to-head. The Rams continue to play solid football with their duo of wide receivers and Matthew Stafford in Sean McVay’s offensive system. You need a veteran quarterback if you’re going to face this Ravens defense that is currently number one in DVOA across the league. The key to success for the Rams here make actually be running the football with Kyren Williams. Baltimore has just been average at stopping the run, and when the Rams have found their best success, they’ve been very balanced on offense and not entirely reliant on their passing game. One of the bigger surprises of this season has been the play of the Rams offensive line, which has outperformed expectation heading into the year. Can they continue this trend against a phsyical and aggressive front seven in Baltimore? Speaking of overachieving, the Rams defense has also been better than advertised. They’ve found some solid players to compliment their few veterans, and overall they have been decent throughout the season. They’re used to seeing Kyler Murray at QB, so they should have at least a conceptual plan to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. Of course as Mike Tyson famously stated, everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. Baltimore will look to take it to them on the ground with Gus Edwards and Keaton Mitchell, and get their receivers involved as well. That could include Odell Beckham, Jr. who has been coming around the last few weeks and should be excited to face a former team. There’s no question about it, especially with Mark Andrews on injured reserve, Lamar Jackson will have to do his usual carrying of the offense though to beat a quality opponent like the Rams.
The Bills and Chiefs have given us a few of the most exciting games of the last three seasons, and with a spread of just 1.5 points, we could be in for another exciting contest. In a week that seems to feature a lot of Bailey Zappe and Mitch Trubisky games, we get Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in the late Sunday window. The Bills enter the game playing well offensively, and in what’s essentially a must-win game for them, get the benefit of playing a thin Chiefs defense that will be without some key contributors. They’ll need their biggest players like Chris Jones and Trent McDuffie to handle their business and get pressure on Allen, and slow down Stefon Diggs, something they’ve had success with. One area the Bills have exploited against the Chiefs is throwing to the tight end position. Dalton Kincaid could be a big factor again in this ballgame, and Dawson Knox also looks to make his return after missing five weeks with a wrist injury. We hear about it all the time, but Josh Allen has to take care of the football while still attacking down the field. Under interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady, Allen has looked comfortable and confident, and he’ll of course need to be his best to get another road win in Kansas City. On offense for the Chiefs, they’ll also be missing a couple of cogs, as Isaiah Pacheco will miss the game, as will left tackle Donovan Smith. Pacheco had been running well, and of course fierce, but they should be ok with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon stepping in there. The question mark will be at the tackle position versus a Bills rotation of defensive ends that can get to the quarterback. Beyond that, it’s the normal question of who is going to make plays for Patrick Mahomes in the passing game beyond Travis Kelce? Kelce should have a nice game as the Bills have had their challenges defending him in the past, and that was when their safety duo of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde were playing at the top of their games, something they’re currently not doing, particularly Hyde. This is definitely the kind of game where the team with the superior offensive game plan could be the difference.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Rams are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Rams are 3-10 in their last 13 road games
– The Ravens are 7-0 straight up in their last 7 games vs. NFC opponents
– The Bills are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. the Chiefs
Teasers have not been kind to us this season, or for the public, but we’re not giving up on them just yet. Instead we’re backing two of the top three quarterbacks in the AFC this week, and that means fading Patrick Mahomes, who quite frankly hasn’t been in that top three. The Chiefs and Bills game figures to be another classic that should be a one score contest one way or the other. The Ravens game is actually the shakier piece as this seems like a weird spot for Baltimore. That being said, they’re a better team playing at home, and needing a win to stay in the race for the top seed in the conference. Come on teaser bets, help us out??
