Previous Week Plays – 4-6
Season Record – 32-30-1
Week 12 Recap:
The old saying goes, if you play with fire you’re gonna get burnt, and that sure proved to be true for us over the Thanksgiving NFL weekend. In fairness, we did advise that playing three team parlays was really just for some Thanksgiving fun, but sometimes you have to pay for fun, and we’re paying up here. What really killed us in week 12 was the Detroit Lions. We were loaded up on Detroit with their first half against the spread, and had them teased and in a moneyline parlay. Starting off with three losses on the first Thanksgiving game doomed us for the rest of the weekend. We did rebound on Thanksgiving, as we cashed the Dallas Cowboys first half spread, and got the San Francisco 49ers team total as well. When we got to Sunday, we simply had two bets in the Chiefs/Raiders game, and 3 bets in the Chargers/Ravens game. Things were looking good early as we took the big points with the Raiders, but after jumping out to a fast 14-0 start, they couldn’t sustain and fell victim to the rival Chiefs firepower. The Chiefs did just enough to also crush the under we were playing there as well. The Chargers/Ravens game went a little more to plan, as we had the Ravens first half and full game against the spread, both of which got home, despite some wonky stuff late in the game. We missed the Ravens team total however as the Chargers decided they’d play defense, and the Ravens, as usual left some plays on the field. All of that added up to a subpar 4-6 weekend, putting back to “blah” for the season.
Week 13 Picks:
No time to wallow in our tears as we’re back in the batter’s box for week thirteen. Hopefully you grabbed some nice CLV lines early with games like the 49ers/Eagles if you’re on the side of the favorite. For the timing of this article, we’re still going to play some things, even with the bad numbers. You may certainly decide that is not a great approach for you. Another thing to keep in mind is you’ll potentially need to shop some of these lines around if you’re able to, particular the teaser bet. We are highlighting a total of four games here, including what should be the game of the week between the 49ers and the Eagles. Between those four games we have a total of five wagers as we’re ready for what we hope is a great December.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys
vs. 
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (8-3)
Thursday November 30th
8:15pm
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Dallas Cowboys -8.5 (-105)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
Second place teams in their respective divisions will start Thursday off with an important matchup with the Seahawks travel to Dallas to face the Cowboys. Dallas has been on a roll steamrolling opponents over the last six weeks, while the Seahawks have found things a little tougher of late. Can Seattle do what other teams have not been able to accomplish this year by going into the Dallas and stealing a win?
It was easy to get caught up in the Geno Smith hype at the beginning of last season as the veteran was playing some really good football. What has been less apparent is how his play has tailed off a bit, and he appears to be a little more of what many people thought he might be when he was named the starter for the Seahawks. He’ll have to take on a fierce Cowboys defense that not only is great at rushing the passer, but is really good at taking the ball away as well if you’re not careful with it. That’s less than ideal for a quarterback who doesn’t have great mobility, and is battling an elbow injury on top of things. The Seahawks offensive line has looked great at times this season, and has looked downright bad at other times, lacking consistency needed for their offense to move the ball effectively. A big obstacle they’ll face on Thursday is they’ll be without starting running back Kenneth Walker III who looks like he’ll miss the game with an oblique injury. Zach Charbonnet will take his spot, and it’s critical for the Seahawks offense they can pick up some yardage on the ground. They need to not only keep the pass rush of the Cowboys slowed down, but they also want to limit the Dallas offense from being on the field as much as they can. Where Seattle could make some plays are with deep balls down the field to their trio of receivers, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Cowboys corners will gamble, as we’ve seen from Duron Bland’s five pick sixes this season, so maybe some double moves and deep routes can counter-act some of the Dallas pass rush.
Let’s start by pointing out the Cowboys recent opponents haven’t exactly been the cream of the crop in the NFL during their recent hot streak. That shouldn’t diminish what quarterback Dak Prescott has been doing, as he’s been basically unstoppable over the last month and a half of the season. The Seattle defense knows what they’re up against, it’s really a question of whether or not they can stop it or not? CeeDee Lamb has been on a tear, ripping up both man and zone coverages, and in what could be the best news of all for the Cowboys, Brandin Cooks is starting to find his groove in the offense as well. The Seahawks will undoubtedly be looking to focus on stopping Lamb and getting pressure on Prescott, and this could be a potential huge game for Cooks if that is the case. After a good start to the season stopping the run, the Seahawks have reverted back a bit to last year and have let some running backs get the best of them of late. This could be an opportunity with the Seahawks aggressive defense for a speedy player like Tony Pollard to finally make those game-breaking runs we we’ve been waiting to see all season. If this Cowboys offense can put a legitimate scare into the Seahawks with their running game, Dak is going to continue to feast once again.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games
– The Seahawks are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
Sports betting has changed so much over the last decade as has the National Football League. There was a time not too long ago where getting 8.5 points with a quality team like the Seahawks would be an automatic bet that you’d have to place. Maybe you agree and maybe you don’t with Tom Brady’s assessment of the state of the league, but the reality is a lot of teams just don’t play great football. The Seahawks have some really good players on their roster, but quarterback still rules, and right now Geno Smith is just not playing in the same stratosphere as Dak Prescott. When you look at what the Cowboys have done to opponents at home, it’s downright ugly as they’ve routinely won by double digits, and then some. This matchup isn’t great for Seattle as Smith could be a sitting duck unless the Seahawks can get out to an early lead. Even though Dallas hasn’t exactly beaten the best of the best, this seems like another home game where they’ll be able to win in fairly comfortable fashion.
BetCrushers Take: Dallas Cowboys – 8.5
Cowboys 30, Seahawks 19
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders
vs. 
Miami Dolphins (8-3) vs. Washington Commanders (4-8)
Sunday December 3rd
1:00pm
FedEx Field – Landover, MD
Miami Dolphins -9.5 (-105)
Over/Under 49.5 (-110)
The Washington Commanders host the Miami Dolphins in an inter-conference matchup of teams heading in opposite directions. The Dolphins are looking to secure an AFC East title on the way to a playoff berth, while the Commanders are playing out a season that could spell the end of the road for head coach Ron Rivera. Washington has had some nice moments this season, but slowing down the high-scoring Dolphins offense is no small task.
We’ve been riding the Dolphins offense all season to almost near success (a slip up against the Raiders slowed it down), and we’re here with the usual breakdown of what they’re trying to do. Run the football creatively, get the ball out of Tua Tagovailoa’s hand quickly, and put it in the hands of their playmakers out wide. That doesn’t figure to change regardless of who their opponent is, so how much can you really analyze their offense beyond that? We’ll take a minute here to focus on their opponent, a team who has not lived up to expectations defensively during the 2023 season. The Washington Commanders boasted one of the top defensive lines in the league, although even during their rare appearances together, they weren’t as dominant as they probably should have been. Now they’re without their top pass rushers in Montez Sweat and Chase Young, which isn’t ideal against a quarterback who gets the ball out faster than anyone else in the league. What’s even more concerning is a secondary that has been extremely disappointing, and that includes their top draft pick in cornerback Emmanuel Forbes. That secondary is going to be tested if they can’t get pressure on Tua, and Tyreek Hill should continue his impressive season, as will Jaylen Waddle and whoever they want to march out as option number three this week. Where Miami could really thrive though is on the ground in a game that could be a little more suited to that style. Raheem Mostert continues to shine, and Devon Achane should be back this week and hopefully ramping up for their playoff run. There’s simply too many horses on the Miami side of the ball, and without Sweat and Chase, there simply aren’t enough playmakers on defense for Washington to stop this team from moving the football.
For as much as the defense underperformed in Washington this year, there’s at least some hope around the future of the offense as Sam Howell continues to show splashes of good quarterback play. They have a way to go, and that starts with their offensive line, which continues to get pushed around. They’re not particularly great at run-blocking or pass-blocking, which makes every yard they get seem like it’s been hard earned. The Dolphins have stepped up defensively after getting some players healthy, and that has led to allowing only 3.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs. The Commanders have moved a bit to working both running backs, Brian Robinson, Jr. and Antonio Gibson into pass catchers to give them more opportunities in space than behind a weak offensive line. Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will be focused first on making the Commanders one dimensional by taking the running backs away. With the return of Jalen Ramsey in the secondary, Fangio is able to take more chances around the line of scrimmage against both the run and the pass. Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has been the most sacked player in the league, and he’ll see a lot of different looks and blitzes in this game too. The Dolphins will be attempting to replace edge rusher Jaelan Phillips who tore his achilles in their game last week, so this could be a little bit of trial and error for Fangio in how he attacks. With all that being said, Sam Howell can throw the football, it’s just tough to imagine Washington being able to keep up on the scoreboard when the final whistle sounds.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Commanders are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
– The Commanders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. AFC opponents
– The Dolphins are averaging 31 points per game in 2023
This is another matchup like with Dallas where it might be appealing to lay the big number with the Dolphins. Realistically speaking, Miami shouldn’t have too much trouble taking care of a Commanders team that’s probably starting to think about the offseason already after just seeing their defensive coordinator canned. There are two reasons here why we’re not going to move forward against the spread with the Dolphins though. First, weather could be a bit of a factor, and sometimes the ball can bounce funny when it’s raining or windy. Second, this Commanders offense offers up a real threat against a backdoor cover in the second half even if Miami is up big. Chances are the Dolphins get this thing done and cover, but we’re going back to the old reliable team total, as it sits below 30 for the first time in a while. You may want to wait to get this bet in until after you see the final weather report, but we’re going to roll ahead with the Dolphins and assume the offense keeps it going.
BetCrushers Take: Miami Dolphins – Team Total – Over 29.5
Dolphins 35, Commanders 20
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
vs. 
San Francisco 49ers (8-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
Sunday December 3rd
4:25pm
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
Last Sunday the Eagles and Bills gave us the best game of the weekend and a contender for top performance of the year in the NFL. The Eagles will have a chance to play in another heavyweight fight when they welcome the San Francisco 49ers to Lincoln Financial Field in a game that could have number one seeding ramifications in the NFC. Both teams have been pretty vocal heading into this game, and we should see some really good football no matter what the outcome.
The 49ers offense is used to dictating the way the game is played when they’ve faced their opponents under Kyle Shanahan. In what is shaping up as a physical football game, it will be interesting to see if he adjusts at all to the Eagles defense, or simply sticks with his game plan. The 49er game plan always starts with running back Christian McCaffrey, but the Eagles have done a nice job bottling running backs up most of the season. It does look as though they will be without Fletcher Cox in this one, which does weaken their rotation on the interior just a bit. Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter are more than capable players, but if they have to play increased snaps, it could really hamper their endurance in the second half of the game, if the Niners own the time of possession. One thing San Francisco does very well is determining how to make McCaffrey most effective. If they don’t get things going on the ground, they’ll use him as a receiver without hesitation. The Eagles linebackers are thin, and they could struggle containing McCaffrey if he’s routinely targeted in the pass game. The Eagles play a lot of cover three defense, which means the middle of the field will also be available for tight end George Kittle. With the corners and safeties keeping tabs on Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, Kittle could be the beneficiary versus the zone. The key for the Eagles is going to be exactly what did the Niners in during the NFC Championship game, and that’s the pass rush. We’re not suggesting they will knock Brock Purdy out of the game again, but they have to get pressure on him and they’re going to have to get some sacks in this game, and at a minimum make Purdy uncomfortable in the pocket.
Much like the 49ers offense, the Eagles can attack in a lot of different ways, which makes them very dangerous. Their success starts with their offensive line, and they received some good news early in the week as it looks like All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson will be able to return from his one week absence to reclaim his spot anchoring that side of the line. Just in time as the pass rushing barrage of Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Randy Gregory and Clelin Ferrell come to town. When healthy, most believe the Eagles boast the top offensive line in the league, and the same can now be said for the 49ers defensive front. This is going to be a sixty minute fight between some of the best in the business at their respective positions, some of whom rarely receive a lot of praise. The Eagles need to maintain at least a bit of a running game, even if it’s not overwhelming so they can set up their passing attack. Where Philly really needs their offensive line to step up is in pass protection, giving quarterback Jalen Hurts time to either find his receivers, or extend plays with his legs. San Francisco has two of the leagues better pursuit linebackers in Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, which means Hurts may not be as effective running as he normally can be. In addition to their offensive line, where the Eagles really need to win is with their outside receivers against the secondary of the 49ers. It looks like Dallas Goedert will not be back, which puts a heavy burden on A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith to make plays in the passing game. In one of the quieter injuries that wasn’t discussed, the Niners lost starting safety Talonoa Hufanga, and that could be seen in a game like this. Two things that are critical for the Eagles in this contest are ball security, and creativity. They cannot turn the ball over, and lining up pound for pound may not work as it does against lesser teams. Can Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson come up with some schemes that give his players an advantage?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Eagles are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Eagles are 8-1 straight up in their last 9 home games
– The 49ers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The 49ers are averaging 28 points per game in 2023
It’ll be hard to top the excitement of last week’s game for the Eagles, but football fans have to be craving a matchup like this one. Not only is it a rematch from a season ago in the playoffs, it’s very possibly a preview of another NFC Championship game as well as both teams are still vying for top seeding. The Eagles are a really good football team, and playing at home, they certainly can win this game. Right now though, the 49ers are the best and most complete team in the league. When you breakdown this contest, there isn’t one area you would point to and give either team a big advantage in really. What we’ve uncovered are several small advantages that really all seem to rest with the 49ers, with the exception of the home field advantage. With the scrutiny on the officiating in Philly after last week though, it’s hard to imagine they’ll be able to bank on such a one-sided contest from the referees. This should be a fun, physical and competitive football game. A healthy 49ers team with revenge on their mind and a slight coaching edge just feels like the right side here at anything less than a FG. We’re also doubling down on this one with a Niners offense against an Eagles defense that is not as dominant as they were a season ago. With a point total in the mid 20’s for a team that routinely cracks 30, we’ll take the San Fran team total as well.
BetCrushers Take: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 and San Francisco 49ers – Team Total – Over 24.5
Teaser Bet
Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Seattle Seahawks (8-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys (6-5)
Thursday November 30th
8:15pm
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Dallas Cowboys -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3)
Monday December 4th
8:15pm
Everbank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under 38 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Jaguars -2.5 and Cowboys -2.5
Our first teaser leg will have been long decided, so we’ll know before the weekend whether or not the Bengals and Jaguars game will matter for our betting purposes. Cincinnati has a tough task in facing a Jaguars defense without their franchise quarterback and with a defense that is struggling. The Jaguars want to continue to distance themselves in the AFC South race as they have their eyes set on the playoffs.
The Cincinnati Bengals seem to have accepted their fate for the 2023 season which means they’ll be home watching the playoffs as quarterback Joe Burrow recovers from his season-ending injury. Still backup Jake Browning will need to try to lead his team on the national stage against a Jaguars team who has a defense that can pretty much be defined as a bully. They love beating up weaker opponents, and this wounded Bengals offense is just that. The Jags are pretty stingy against the run, and without much of a threat of the pass, Joe Mixon was all but bottled up a week ago. With Mixon unlikely to do much on the ground, Browning will be forced to throw the ball against a defense that has stepped up it’s pass rush pressure over the last month of the season. Josh Allen is having an All-Pro type season on the edge, and second year man Travon Walker has even shown some signs of life after a slow start. Despite the emphasis on their offensive line, Cincinnati still ranks in the bottom half of pressure allowed, which could spell trouble for Browning and the passing attack. The Bengals will try to simplify their passing attack, but they can’t simply go conservative and expect to win this game. After only receiving six targets last week, look for the team to force the ball to Ja’Marr Chase a little more this Monday. The problem is, the Jaguars also know that’s coming there way.
The Jaguars offense has performed similarly to their defense in terms of taking care of weaker opponents and defenses. The Cincinnati Bengals defense figured to be a pretty good returning group this season, but it’s been anything but good news as the team has struggled without the veteran leadership they lost at the safety positions. The Jaguars may also have a bit of a conservative plan heading into this game as they know they really just need to hold serve to come away with the needed win. Look for a lot of Travis Etienne, Jr. early in an effort to get him going after a slow stretch of the season for the young running back. The Bengals have struggled defending tight ends in particular, which means Evan Engram could be in line for a lot of targets when Jacksonville has the ball. The formula for the Jaguars here as heavy favorites is simple, take care of the football, and don’t make anything easy for the Bengals. Punts aren’t the worst thing in the world for Jacksonville as they have enough talent to find points along the way. One last thing to point out is how much better Trevor Lawrence’s numbers are when Zay Jones is in the lineup. It’s easy to get caught up with Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk, but having that additional comfort weapon for Lawrence has proven to be important.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games
– The Seahawks are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Jaguars are 8-2 straight up in their last 10 home games
– The Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. AFC opponents
As we mentioned at the top of the article, you’re going to have to shop this one around to make sure you can get the key number of 8.5 for the favorites to tease under there. There are still plenty of 8.5’s floating around out there, and even a couple of 8’s, but there are also a lot of 9’s as well. You know the teaser formula. Two home teams, check. Two better quarterbacks, check. Two teams getting under the key number of three, check. This one fits all of the criteria. After some research, we’re adding a little more fuel to the fire in the Monday Night Football game as we’ve got the Jaguars going over their team total as well against a struggling defense.
