Previous Week Plays – 5-4
Season Record – 33-31-1
Week 12 Recap:
The BetCrushers promise not to whine too much about results, particularly when we have a winning weekend. On paper a 5-4 weekend is all fine and dandy, except when things really should have shaken out to more like 8-1. The positive of that, is of course that means our handicapping was pretty spot on as a whole. Over time that variance should even out a bit, and hopefully we can say we were on the fortunate side of a wager in the coming weeks. Our plays started on Thanksgiving day as we split going 1-1, with an ATS wager and a fun Thanksgiving parlay. Losing the Cowboys -9 was really upsetting as they absolutely dominated the Giants. With a 28-13 lead and under the two minute warning, Brett Maher lined up for a very makeable 47 yard field goal with no pressure in the dome, that he subsequently missed. That would have protected against a backdoor cover, even though it still meant the Giants would need to march 60 yards with just about a minute and no timeouts left. A couple of receptions later, and a very weak roughing call set New York up for a garbage TD with a few seconds left on the clock. Tough way to start the weekend, but at least the 3-team fun teaser hit to even things up. The early window on Sunday ended up going 2-2 as our double dip with the Jets -6.5 ATS and the teaser -.5 held up, and a tough stand at the end for the Commanders held their cover. We lost the over in the Bucs and Browns game as it actually only missed by one point once it went to overtime. Realistically though, that game never was a threat to go over, making it our worst loss of the weekend. The worst beat was taking the Dolphins team total over 30.5 points. After lighting up the Texans for 30 points heading into halftime, Miami didn’t notch a single point in the second half. The late starting Ravens and Jaguars game was another tough loss as we played the road chalk with the Ravens. Possessing a 19-10 lead and the ball with just over four minutes remaining, Gus Edwards coughed up the football and the Jaguars cut into the lead. The Ravens did manage to score again with less than two minutes left to regain the lead and cover, only to give up some big passes and ultimately lose the game on a 2 point conversion. Sunday Night Football helped us close out our second leg of the teaser with the Jets as the Eagles covered the minus one, and our double dip there got home as well as the Eagles squeaked out a cover. 5-4 is fine, 8-1 would have been phenomenal.
Week 13 Picks:
We’ve reached the point of the season after Thanksgiving when teams are generally headed in one of two directions. Either focused on getting on a roll for the playoffs, or as always, thinking about where that offseason vacation and golf game is going to begin. That’s a major factor in handicapping late in the season, and if you can determine which teams are in throw in the towel mode, there’s some winning wagers to be had. We’ve got a teaser factoring a couple of those teams this week, as well as a separate leg for that teaser, doubling up on one home team. We’ve also got two wagers on the New York Jets for the second week in a row, as well as a couple of wagers ATS and a team total. It shakes out to a total of seven bets for lucky week 13 in the NFL. Good luck to everyone!
Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (7-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
Sunday November 27th
1:00pm
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Tennessee Titans +5 (-115)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
One of the top games of the weekend features the 7-4 Tennessee Titans and the 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles. Tennessee is hoping to rebound after a tough loss and looking to hand the Eagles just their second loss of the season. Philadelphia wants to stay in the driver’s seat for the top seed in the NFC, and regain some of the swagger they had early in the season. Can Tennessee continue their stretch of overachieving or will the Eagles potent offense be too much for them?
The Tennessee Titans have had one of the most defined offensive identities in the entire league all season. That identity will be on full display against the Eagles as there is little to no doubt that this scheme will be all about running back Derrick Henry and the interior of the offensive line for Tennessee. Even with recent free agent additions of Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh, the Eagles still can’t seem to thwart opposing running backs. They’ve particularly struggled with bigger and more powerful backs as we saw a week ago against A.J. Dillon. That’s not good news when Derrick Henry is coming to town, and coming off of a subpar performance in his last ballgame. Henry has been an absolute monster in his road games this season and there is little reason to believe he won’t be able to continue that trend here. Worth monitoring for the Titans is the injury situation of center Ben Jones and guard Nate Davis, both of whom are banged up entering this one. The Titans have to own the line of scrimmage if they’re going to pull of a road upset in this game. Speaking of banged up, the Eagles are getting a little thin in the secondary, particular in the middle of the field as they’ll be missing a couple of key cogs in their defensive engine. Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill throw inside the numbers as much as any QB in the league so look for some crossing routes and the tight ends and backs to play a role here as well.
When the Eagles offense is rolling, they’re as good as we see across the league week in and week out. It all starts with their offensive line, which is arguably the best in the league heading down the stretch. If you enjoy physical football, you’re going to see an absolute brawl between the offensive line for Philly and the defensive line for the Titans. Despite a slew of injuries on that Titans defense, they still have a lot of quality players and seem to make timely plays when needed. They’re one of the few teams that has the ability to slow down the Eagles running game with their front seven, and at least contain the Eagles receivers in the secondary. The wild card is always what happens with Jalen Hurts when he decides to become a runner, either by design or scrambling? When Hurts is utilizing his legs, this offense looks almost unstoppable, as there are simply too many weapons to account for. The Titans have been fairly aggressive defensively this season so don’t be surprised to see Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker more around the line of scrimmage than in a two deep shell. That’s a scary proposition to try to face former Titan A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but it’s also they’re best chance to contain Hurts.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Titans are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Eagles are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 games vs. the AFC
Maybe we’re missing something here, and yes we obviously see the records of each team and understand the limitations of the Titans, but this spread seems a bit too high. The Titans under Mike Vrabel are a ridiculous 23-6 ATS as underdogs of more than a field goal. They have a legitimate chance to win this football game, and if they lose, it seems like they’re almost always in close games that come down to the wire. The Eagles are no joke, and their offense can score with the best of them. What we’re wondering is, can they slow down Derrick Henry or get up enough to force Tennessee to be a purely throwing team? We’re betting not, as this should be a fist fight type of game with a lot of physical play in the trenches. With getting that many points, we’ve simply got to take the Titans.
BetCrushers Take: Tennessee Titans +5
Eagles 24, Titans 22
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
vs. 
Green Bay Packers (4-8) vs. Chicago Bears (3-9)
Sunday November 27th
1:00pm
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
The NFC North won’t be won by the Green Bay Packers or the Chicago Bears in 2022, as each team is limping towards the finish line of the season. Aaron Rodgers enters the contest banged up, and Justin Fields may or may not get the start, battling an injury of his own. The Bears were not expected to really contend this year as it was, however the season is clearly one of disappointment for the Packers. Green Bay will take a crack at continuing what has been a dominant stretch against Chicago, in the league’s oldest rivalry.
We might as well start with the what happens next for Aaron Rodgers questions, as the Packers season is all but over. Any slim hope they have of a late playoff run would likely require running the table, which is not something this team is can realistically do. Rodgers says he plans to play Sunday despite suffering a rib injury on top of his nagging thumb injury he’s been dealing with. You don’t need to watch the viral video of Rodgers screaming to know that he and the Packers have dominated the Bears in recent years. Despite the Packers offensive woes in 2022, this could continue again, for the simple fact that this Bears defense is just flat out not very good. They weren’t great to start the season, and shipping off leaders Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn certainly hasn’t helped things. The Packers should be able to run the ball, even though Aaron Jones will also enter the contest slightly bruised up. Rodgers should have time in the pocket to throw, and that will allow the less than spectacular receivers he’s throwing to an opportunity to get open.
Some good news for the Bears as quarterback Justin Fields was able to return to full practice on Thursday, paving the way for him to get back onto the field this Sunday. Erratic might be the best adjective to to describe the play of the young quarterback, but he’s definitely been explosive and gotten this offense scoring some points recently. The Bears offense is completely predicated on their ability to run the football, and that will be the case even more with starting wide receiver Darnell Mooney out for the season. The good news for Chicago is the Packers haven’t been able to consistently stuff the run at all this season. Their strength is slowing down opponents wide receivers, which is something the Bears will have little interest in even trying to do. David Montgomery should have some room to run behind was has developed into a solid run-blocking offensive line. The Packers front has been bullied a lot, including Kenny Clark and their interior linebackers. The real question when facing the Bears offense though, is of course how do you contain the explosive Fields when he’s running the ball? The Packers have played in a division where they haven’t had to worry about mobile quarterbacks much in recent seasons, so adapting to Fields could be tough for them.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Packers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 9 games for the Packers
– The Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Bears
– The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The total has gone over in the last 6 games for the Bears
It’s so hard to know how teams that aren’t in playoff contention will perform down the stretch of an NFL season. For Justin Fields and the Bears, they need to prove their worth, so they should keep fighting. If Aaron Rodgers is willing to go out there beat up and bruised, you know that he’s going to try to have his team winning as well. This should be close game as neither of these teams are ultimately very good. Fields has turned the Bears into a high scoring team, which actually bodes well for our wager in this game, if he can put some points on the board. We’re fading the Bears defense and counting on a Packers offense that is very uninspiring to get over the total of 23.5. This is a lot less about the Packers offense being good, it’s really all about this Bears defense not being very good. Add that in with Green Bay’s dominance over Chicago and it seems worth playing.
BetCrushers Take: Green Bay Packers – Team Total – Over 23.5 Points
Packers 26, Bears 23
New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings
vs. 
New York Jets (7-4) vs. Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
Sunday November 27th
1:00pm
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Minnesota Vikings -3 (-110)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
Another big AFC-NFC matchup takes place in Minneapolis when the Vikings play host to the upstart New York Jets. Each team is coming off of a big win in week 12 and needing another as they jockey for potential playoff position. The Jets will start quarterback Mike White for the second consecutive week after a strong performance in his season debut. There are some rumblings that neither of these teams are the “real-deal”, and the loser of this game might fall into that category.
The Mike White hype is real in New York as fans believe he might completely wrestle the starting quarterback job away from Zach Wilson permanently. Our best recommendation is to slow down and evaluate for a little longer, including in this road game in a hostile environment. The good news for White and the Jets, is the Vikings defense has been mostly uninspiring this season and seems to lack a general identity. Despite a pedestrian running back group that will probably be headed up by James Robinson in this game, the Jets should be able to at least find a little success running the ball. That’s important simply to keep things balanced for White so he doesn’t have to deal with constant heat from edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Z’Darius Smith. The Jets also don’t boast the best wide receiver group in the world, however rookie Garrett Wilson has shown he’s more than capable of making some plays. Additionally, the others in the mix, including Corey Davis and Elijah Moore seem to have confidence in White, and are at least capable of making plays. The Vikings secondary is extremely thinned out due to injury, and outside of veteran Patrick Peterson, who has played fairly well, there are holes for New York to attack. White is not shot about taking some shots down the field, and it will be interesting to see if this is the type of game where a veteran safety like Harrison Smith can possibly bait him into a turnover along the way?
The Vikings offense faces one of their toughest challenges of the season against this underrated New York defense. The Jets are pretty solid against the run, and even better defending the pass. The Vikings offensive line has been very “meh” for most of the season, and they’ll be tested against this Jets front. Quinnen Williams continues to play well anchoring the defensive line, and could give the Vikings problems. It also looks like Minnesota will be without left tackle Christian Darrisaw for a second straight week, which could leave quarterback Kirk Cousins vulnerable on the blind side. The real fun of this game will be watching All-world receiver Justin Jefferson battling the young cornerbacks for the Jets. Even when the Vikings offense doesn’t look fluid, somehow Cousins is able to throw it up and Jefferson finds a way to make plays. Things could get dicey for this offense though if they can’t get Dalvin Cook and the running game going and have to become one-dimensional. The Jets have one of the highest pass rush pressure rates in the league, and if there’s one weakness for Kirk Cousins, it’s when he’s under heavy pressure. The Vikings need a nice game plan out of offensive coordinator Wes Phillips to put Cousins in a position to shine against this tough Jets defense.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Vikings are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
If there’s one thing the Minnesota Vikings have proven so far this season, it’s that they play in a lot of really close ballgames. In fact, they have the lowest point differential of any 9-2 team in the history of the league, with just a +5 points in that department. Mike White is still a big question mark, but it’s our belief that he gives the Jets offense a better chance at moving the ball and getting points on the board. He also has a decent matchup against the so-so Minnesota defense. Really, what we’re keeping an eye on here is the Jets defense, as they should have an opportunity to slow down the Vikings offense and keep this a close football game. This is shaping up as a field goal game, for one team or the other. With getting the key number of three, it seems like a win or a push with the points. For that reason, we’ve actually got three different plays involving the Jets here. Nothing like putting all your eggs in the Mike White basket, right?
BetCrushers Take: New York Jets – Team Total Over 19.5 Points / New York Jets +3 / New York Jets Teased +9 with Baltimore Ravens -2.5
Vikings 24 Jets 23
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
Sunday November 27th
4:25pm
Paycor Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Kansas City Chiefs -2 (-110)
Over/Under 53 (-110)
The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Cincinnati for a much anticipated rematch of the AFC Championship game. The Chiefs currently own the top seed in the AFC and enter the game as small favorites on the road. The Bengals will have Ja’Marr Chase back in their lineup as they’ll be striving to duplicate their success against Kansas City from last season. Do the Bengals have the number of the Chiefs, or will the Kansas City engine keep chugging forward?
No offense in the league seems to be able to mix and match pieces better than the Kansas City Chiefs. That makes sense when you have a head coach like Andy Reid, a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes and a quality offensive line. They’ll have to do some of that again, as it looks like their running back duo against the Bengals will be Isaiah Pacheco and Ronald Jones. The question is, will that even matter as Andy Reid loves to lose his play sheet that has runs on it anyhow? Things are still a little thinner at receiver as well with Kadarius Toney 50-50 at best to play, and Mecole Hardman still on IR. What the Chiefs do have is Mahomes, and Travis Kelce, who is putting up another phenomenal season as the sure target for the Chiefs in the passing game. The Bengals defense hasn’t been elite as a whole, but they have played fairly well for most of the season. Getting D.J. Reader back in the middle of their defensive line helps as he’s able to eat up blockers and free the linebackers up to make plays. Even though the Chiefs may not run much, taking on interior blockers is big based on the Chiefs blocking scheme. The best chance to slow down the offense of the Chiefs is to get heavy pressure on Mahomes and force him to make throws before he wants to. The Bengals have stepped up their pass rush recently as they’re finding some help for Trey Hendrickson, and will try to keep Mahomes from getting into a rhythm. Mahomes is like a 3 point shooter in basketball, if he’s a little cold, he can be contained, but when he finds a groove he’s basically unstoppable. We actually saw that in the tale of two halves in the AFC Championship game last season when he was brilliant in the first 29 minutes of the game, and inept in the last 31 minutes.
The Bengals seem to be getting things figured out offensively, and the scary part for the rest of the league is they haven’t necessarily even played their best football. The offensive line has been much improved as they’re starting to come together and get their confidence and their protections down. They’ll need to be at their best as they’ll face some exotic and consistent blitzes from the Kansas City defense. If you’re a Bengals fan, you should be excited about that, as no quarterback has been better facing the blitz than Joe Burrow since he entered the league. The Chiefs have a bit of a problem in this matchup as they aren’t really great at generating pressure with just their front four. If the Bengals interior can contain Chris Jones, KC will be forced to bring extra help. That leaves at least a couple of the Bengals pass catchers in one-on-one coverage, and really all having favorable matchups. Ja’Marr Chase will work his way back into things, and Tee Higgins should continue to make plays when his number is called. A little extra motivation bulletin board material was given to Higgins and the Bengals when he was downplayed by strong safety Justin Reid. The Bengals should also get starting running back Joe Mixon back from a concussion to bolster their rushing attack, although it’s worth mentioning that Samaje Perine filled in admirably in his absence.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Ravens are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 games
– The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games
The spread on this game seems to be about right when you’re handicapping this game. Chances are the Chiefs are going to draw a lot of interest as people will play the debatable top team in the league simply needing to win by a field goal. The Chiefs might be the best team in the league, however that doesn’t mean they’ll win every game, or the Super Bowl. For the record, we’re not sure that the Chiefs are the best team in the league, at least not by a wide margin, if they are. Even good teams have weaknesses, and this Chiefs team really doesn’t match up well against the Bengals. Cincinnati is a confident team to begin with behind quarterback Joe Burrow, and the fact they handled KC twice last year should have them confident again in this game. The Bengals offense, especially with the return of Ja’Marr Chase is a really bad matchup for the Chiefs defense. Burrow should have a nice game, and with a total set near the mid 50’s, it seems like Mahomes is going to have to put up 35+ points to come away with a win. While he’s certainly capable of doing that, it’s a lot to ask in a regular season road game where a lot would really have to go their way. You can get some plus money odds on the moneyline if that interests you here with Cincinnati, we’ll play the plus two for our official wager.
BetCrushers Take: Cincinnati Bengals +2
Bengals 29, Chiefs 26
Teaser Bet
Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Denver Broncos (3-8) vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
Sunday November 27th
1:00pm
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Baltimore Ravens -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under 39 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (3-8)
Sunday November 27th
4:05pm
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Ravens -2.5 and Seahawks -1
The Baltimore Ravens will attempt to right the continued late game woes they’ve had this season when they take on the Denver Broncos at home. On the other side of the country, the Seattle Seahawks will head south to take on the injury-riddled Los Angeles Rams in SoFi Stadium. The Ravens and Seahawks are fighting for a playoff berth in their respective conferences, while the Broncos and Rams are simply trying to run out the clock on their season.
The offense for the Baltimore Ravens has never really been based upon a great wide receiver with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. However, without Hollywood Brown or Rashod Bateman, there is a clear lack of big plays in the passing game, and Mark Andrews is getting a ton of attention. Things are pretty dire when DeSean Jackson is the main deep threat that’s making plays at this point in his career. Against the Broncos this probably won’t matter much, as they’re strength is locking up top wideouts with Patrick Surtain II and their secondary. Where the Broncos have been vulnerable is against the run, something the Ravens will try to establish as always on Sunday. The oft-injured Ronnie Stanley will return to his post at left tackle which should help, and the running backs for Baltimore are as healthy as they’ve been in two years, and just waiting on J.K. Dobbins to return. For the Broncos, there really doesn’t seem to be a such thing as an offense. It appears to be a combination of bad coaching, horrific quarterback play, and some serious injuries on the offensive line and at the skill positions. As the Ravens offense has sputtered just a bit, their defense has improved as the season as gone on, with the exception of late during fourth quarters anyhow. Denver enters this game thin yet again at wide receiver and running back. Although the Ravens don’t play as exotic of a defense as they have over the past few seasons, this could be another rough spot for Russell Wilson, in what’s been a nightmare first season in Denver. As you look at the roster the Broncos are putting out on offense in this game, where are the points possibly going to come from?
It’s fair to say the Seattle Seahawks, and particularly quarterback Geno Smith have gotten a little dose of reality over the last month of the season. The team is still playing ok, as is Smith, but they haven’t looked as crisp or been as productive of late. Normally, a road game against the Rams defense would not seem like a favorable spot, however this Rams defense enters the contest almost as beat up as their offense. Most notably, they’ll be without defensive MVP Aaron Donald, which should be a huge relief for their offensive line. It should also help open some things up for the running game and Kenneth Walker III who has been bottled up the last couple of games. We’ll get a first hand look at how some players like Greg Gaines, Marquise Copeland and the linebackers can perform without Donald in the lineup eating up blockers and making big plays. The Rams can try to match Jalen Ramsey up with either D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett, but the rest of their secondary could have some trouble with the rest of the weapons. On offense for the Rams, it’s a complete hospital unit at this point in the season. Bryce Perkins looks as though he’ll get his second start, and we honestly won’t even know if he can play in this league, mainly because it’s unfair to grade a QB playing with his supporting cast. The Rams offensive line is an absolute mess, and they won’t be able to run the ball, as they haven’t all season. Even against a Seahawks front that has gotten gashed at times. In the passing game, LA will be trotting out Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek and Tutu Atwell. That’s not going to scare any defensive backs across the league, especially if Perkins doesn’t have time in the pocket.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Buccaneers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games
The breakdown here is really simple on our end. We’re taking the two teams that are fighting for the playoffs against two teams that probably have very little interest in playing at this point in the season. Additionally, the teams we’re picking are much healthier than their opponents, which is big at this point in the year. If we had to play these straight against the spread, we’d probably be on the Ravens and Seahawks as it is, so getting them both to just win by a field goal seems like a good pairing to us.
