Previous Week Plays – 3-1
Season Record – 28-24-1
Week 11 Recap:
What a fun weekend of football around the National Football League as a lot of games came down to the wire. If you enjoy sweating games and bets, it was a great weekend for you. It was a solid weekend for the BetCrushers as we managed to hit on three of the four wagers we posted. Our favorite play was the Jacksonville Jaguars and the matchup evolved exactly as we expected. Their blowout win of course also hit the teaser leg we played with them as well. The second leg was a lot dicier as the Lions had to pull out a pair of touchdowns in the last six minutes of the game to hold up their end of the deal. After a couple of bad teaser beats this season, it was nice this one fell in our favor. Of the two team totals we played, we split, as the 49ers got to 27 points in the third quarter. The Dolphins had a ridiculous 9 possessions at the beginning of the third quarter, with zero punts. However, they turned it over on downs twice, including inside the five yard line, and missed a field goal. All of that resulted in them not hitting their total. All things considered, things went pretty well in week eleven and we’ll take that profit into Thanksgiving weekend.
Week 12 Picks:
Our slate is small on here as far as only working two angles as we had put some wagers in on Thanksgiving Day for week twelve. We found five total bets spread across two games, and to be honest they’re not our favorite plays of the season. After going all in with Lions and having it hurt us, we’re backing another team heavily, which is either going to end up being great, or terrible. With that being said, we’re following our system and hoping for a little bit of lady luck as we head into the holiday season. We hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving, it’s going to be fun down the stretch of the NFL year!
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (5-6)
Sunday November 26th
4:25pm
Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
Kansas City Chiefs -9 (-105)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
An important AFC West matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders could have a large implication on the overall playoff picture in the conference. The Raiders need this home win to stay in the hunt, while the Chiefs are still eyeing a potential top seed, and a stranglehold on the division they’ve owned in recent years. They’ve also dominated the Raiders of late, and will look to bust out of a bit of an offensive slump against a team that’s been surging under interim head coach Antonio Pierce.
Let’s not get too carried away with the struggles of the Kansas City Chiefs offense just yet, or should we? It’s true that had MVS made the catch on the deep ball a week ago we may not have heard as much about the ineptness of these wide receivers. Realistically, it truly is a bit of a problem. When you factor in the lack of a dominant wideout as well as what appears to be a slightly slowing (possibly less focused?) Travis Kelce, the points just aren’t adding up for KC. A matchup with the Raiders could be good medicine for what ails them though, as Patrick Mahomes, and Kelce have absolutely feasted on their defense. In the three games with Antonio Pierce at the helm, the Raiders defense has really played better, at least statistically speaking. Where the Raiders need to stiffen up on Sunday might actually need to be against Isaiah Pacheco and running game of the Chiefs. Las Vegas has continued to have trouble stopping the run, and a physical runner like Pacheco could be the Chiefs ticket to success. The interior of the Chiefs offensive line, anchored by Creed Humphrey has a distinct advantage against the Raiders. The less the Chiefs need to throw and put Mahomes at-risk of being devoured by Maxx Crosby, is probably the better.
Offensively, the Raiders haven’t looked great in their recent revival, but they have absolutely looked tougher. Toughness is great, and they’re going to need that plus some big plays to pull of this upset. Much like the Chiefs, their path to victory probably rests on the shoulders of Josh Jacobs and the ground game. The Chiefs defense has been great this season, but they are giving up over 4 and a half yards per tote to opposing runners. The Raiders know this and always want Jacobs to fuel the offense. Even with Jacobs being the focal point of their attack, they have to find ways to get Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers the football. Chiefs corners Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Snead are playing great, and these individual matchups are going to be fun to watch. This is actually just a difference of philosophies when Las Vegas has the football. They want to power their way without a lot of gimmicks from point A to point B. Steve Spagnuolo on the other hand will look to confuse rookie quarterback Aiden O’Connell into making some mistakes. The Raiders can compete with this version of the Chiefs, but only if they do not lose the turnover battle. This is going to start with O’Connell and spread it’s way out to the rest of the Vegas offense.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Chiefs are 5-0 straight up in their last 5 games vs. the Raiders
– The total has stayed under in the last 6 games for the Chiefs
– The total has stayed under in 8 of the last 9 games for the Raiders
– The total has stayed under in the last 7 home games for the Raiders
– The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
This could end up looking like the worst pair of bets in a long time as the Chiefs have really taken to the Raiders as a habit. Coming off of a frustrating loss, you know they want to bounce back and start to hit their stride as we head down the stretch of the season. If they can get out to an early lead against Las Vegas, this could get ugly with Steve Spagnuolo dialing up some blitzes that could crush a young quarterback like Aiden O’Connell. The Raiders have to take care of the football, and keep this game close in the first quarter. If they can do that, they can make this a competitive game and give the Chiefs a fight. It’s a scary proposition, but again, we’re trusting our system here and counting on another low-scoring game, where getting nine full points at home in a divisional game just seems like a little too much.
BetCrushers Take: Las Vegas Raiders +9 and Game Total – Under 43.5
Chiefs 24, Raiders 16
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (8-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)
Sunday November 26th
8:20pm
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Baltimore Ravens -3 (-110)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
The Baltimore Ravens are looking to control their own destiny in the crowded AFC playoff race and have a tough road matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. Things are shaky LA as Brandon Staley’s seat seems to get hotter and hotter with each passing week. A loss here may not only bury the Chargers in the playoff picture, but could spell the end of the Staley era for the franchise. Will the Chargers rise to the challenge, or could this be a situation where a team rolls over?
The offense for the Baltimore Ravens seems to be getting more dangerous at the right time of the season. They could be ready to explode against a Chargers defense that is reeling a bit and feeling the heat. They’ll also be facing that defense without one of it’s key players as Joey Bosa is shelved on IR for the next month at least with a foot injury. The offensive line for the Ravens should be able to win in the trenches with the absence of Bosa. Khalil Mack can still bring some juice off of the edge, however Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the league at working around deep edge rushers. The emergence of rookie Keaton Mitchell to change the pace with Gus Edwards has made this running attack even better than it was to begin the season. The Chargers have given up a lot of explosive plays, so even with an improved run defense from a season ago, the Ravens should be able to run the ball, at least enough. Throwing the football is where the Chargers have really struggled. Their cornerbacks are graded poorly across the board, and they’ve even tried bouncing back and forth from man to zone in an effort to find some success. With Odell Beckham, Jr. starting to find some life in the offense, Jackson can now stretch the field on both sides, which also opens up his own rushing opportunities. This will be the first full game where Baltimore has to operate without star tight end Mark Andrews though, which is obviously a big blow to the team. Isaiah Likely has proven capable when given opportunities, and now is his time to really show that he can be a great player in the league.
If ever a team or unit seems to play to the level of their opponents it would have to be this Chargers offense. We’ve watched this team look as explosive as any in the league, and also struggle at times to pick up first downs. There isn’t a wide margin for error for LA against this Ravens squad, both because their defense is playing really well, but also because they’re going to have to score to keep up. The battle of the big guys is going to be fun to watch here as the Chargers boast a big and physical offensive line, going against a mirror image of aggressiveness and size on the Baltimore size. Austin Ekeler as always will be a key for the Chargers, but he’s going to have to really try to grind things out on the ground. LA must remain patient as the best way to attack this Ravens defense is on the ground. They’re not bad against the run, but they’ve been downright stingy against the pass. When they do pass, Justin Herbert is going to have to find some places to get the ball beyond Keenan Allen. Baltimore has done a nice job containing slot receivers, ranking 3rd in the league in that department. LA will need to move Allen around, and find some others to step up, beyond Ekeler. The scheme will matter here, yet somehow this is still going to come down to how many plays Justin Herbert can make. He gets a lot of praise, and rightfully so, but if you want to be elite, you have to find ways to win games like these. Can Herbert rise to the occasion or will we see another Chargers disappointment?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Ravens are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games
– The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games for the Ravens
Loading up on one team didn’t work for us on Thanksgiving, but let’s hope things will even out for us on Sunday Night Football. How badly do the Chargers want to fight for head coach Brandon Staley, especially when they’re basically tied for the cellar in their own division right now? It’s a prime-time game so they won’t completely sleepwalk through the contest, it’s just too much for them to win, especially with the way their defense is playing. The Ravens are one of the better first half teams, so that’s angle we want to play, and with the spread falling to the key number of a field goal, we’ll give that a shot as well. The loss of Bosa is big on that side of the ball for the Chargers, and offensively, they don’t necessarily match up great against the Ravens. After a lot of paralysis by analysis, we’re just doing what makes sense here and letting the chips fall where they may. Give us the Ravens a few different ways, square or not.
