Previous Week Plays – 2-3
Season Record – 28-27-1
Week 11 Recap:
Another lackluster week of posted plays as our dual losses in the game with the Bengals and Steelers forced a 2-3 mark for the weekend. We’ll start there as we had the Steelers getting the points and the under total as we expected a close and low-scoring ballgame. Both teams got off to a fast start, and exploded even more in the second half making the under irrelevant before the fourth quarter even began. The Steelers looked as though they’d at least be able to get things done as far as a cover goes, as they were leading 20-17 in the third quarter before ultimately making some untimely mistakes, and allowing Joe Burrow to light them up. Our other loss was a frustrating one for the Baltimore Ravens first half -6.5, as they had multiple opportunities to get that one home. While driving early in the second quarter, an interception by Lamar Jackson stalled them out. At the end of the half, the Ravens got it down inside the Panthers ten, but with the clock running down, had to settle for a field goal and a 3-0 lead at the break. Our two wins were handicapped correctly, although you can certainly say we were lucky on the first. That was the New England Patriots, which we had minus a field goal. They completely shut the Jets down, yet were unable to muster any offense of their own. In what looked like it would be an overtime game that would either be a field goal win, or end in a tie, they broke a game-winning punt return and notched the much needed cover for us. Our other win went exactly to plan as we figured the Chiefs would squeeze out a field goal win against the rival Chargers, which ended up working out. After 11 weeks of the season, we’re still searching for that monster weekend which has eluded us, as we’ve seen our cushy winning margin completely eroded to mediocrity.
Week 12 Picks:
Our week 12 starts out with a 1-1 Thanksgiving split as we won our teaser bet, but lost the Cowboys -9. We’ll complain about that bad beat next week on our recap. For Sunday we’ve got a total of 7 plays, one of which is a teaser bet with two of the teams we already like. We’ve got a game total over and two team total overs. Yes, we’re well aware that 2022 has been all about the unders, but that’s not stopping us in some favorable matchups. It’s our heaviest week yet of plays, let’s see how that works out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cleveland Browns
vs. 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) vs. Cleveland Browns (3-7)
Sunday November 27th
1:00pm
FirstEnergy Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (-115)
Over/Under 42 (-110)
The Cleveland Browns host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what will essentially be a spoiler game after their loss to the Bills in week eleven. Cleveland still has plenty of headlines in the making as quarterback Deshaun Watson is ready to make his season debut in just one more week. The Buccaneers aren’t focused on the Browns storylines, as they look to climb about .500 and hold or extend their lead in the weak NFC South.
Don’t look now but the Tampa Bay offense is starting to find a little rhythm in the second half of the season. The wide receiver group getting healthier and a sighting of a running game has to be a welcome sign for the team. Both of these things are keys in this contest against Browns and a defense that has been abysmal to say the least. The Browns flat out cannot stop the run, which is a good sign for a Tampa team that is trying to establish a running presence. Rachaad White is already moving towards a heavier workload, and an injury to Leonard Fournette could make this a true breakout game for the young back. Back to the passing game, there’s also reason to be optimistic for TB heading into this game. While their offensive line has been less than stellar, they should be able to give Tom Brady some time in the pocket. Outside of Myles Garrett, the Browns really haven’t been able to generate much pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Combine that with a secondary that has had as many missed assignments as any team in the league, and Brady should be able to find some plays down the field.
The overall record for the Browns isn’t really indicative of the way Jacoby Brissett has played in his spot duty for the team. He’ll take the reigns for his final start before Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension. Like Brady, the Browns should have at least some success throwing the ball against the Buccaneers secondary. Although they’re as healthy as they’ve been, they’re overall just not a great unit. This is especially true when the front seven doesn’t generate pressure. The loss of Shaq Barrett can’t be understated for this team, and against the still strong offensive line for Cleveland, the Bucs’ may not be able to generate a lot of pressure. Brissett has developed quite a chemistry with wide receiver Amari Cooper, and that will continue one more time here. The real key for the Browns and this game, is whether or not Cleveland will be able to crank up their physical running game? The Buccaneers defense has not been its typical stout run-stopping unit, allowing 4.5 yards per carry, nearly a yard more than a season ago. They were playing most of the season without DT Akiem Hicks however, and his return should help bolster things on the interior. That is of course assuming Vita Vea will be paired up next to him, as he’s questionable to go in this one. The best news for this defense again, is they are as healthy as they’ve been really all year, with the exception of Barrett.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Buccaneers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
– The total has gone over for the Buccaneers in 6 of their last 7 games vs. the AFC
– The Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
– The total has gone over in 7 of the 10 games for the Browns this year
If you look at the trends above you’ll notice that neither the Buccaneers nor the Browns have been particularly good against the spread this season and recently. Our gut is telling us that Tampa Bay should be able to overcome the road test and weather in Cleveland to get a win and a cover. The numbers simply don’t seem to merit that however, as the Browns have played nearly every game within a field this season, with the exception of two. Instead of going against the numbers, we’re instead going to attack a number that seems a little low, even with an inconsistent Tampa Bay offense in 2022. We have this closer to a mid to high point total, so we’ll take a crack at the over as both offenses should find some success with their matchups.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 42
Buccaneers 26, Browns 22
Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
Houston Texans (1-8-1) vs. Miami Dolphins (7-3)
Sunday November 27th
1:00pm
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Miami Dolphins -14 (-110)
Over/Under 47 (-110)
The Dolphins return rested from their bye week and will face a Houston Texans team that is changing quarterbacks in an effort to generate their second win of the season. As the Texans continue to struggle, the Dolphins have been as hot as any team in the league behind an offense that has been on fire. Will the switch at quarterback give the Texans a boost to pull of an improbable upset, or are these two teams simply in a different weight class at this point of the season?
Kyle Allen gets the start at quarterback for the Texans, after it appears the audition for Davis Mills has come to a quiet conclusion. Allen looked pretty solid in his limited starts with Washington, although realistically it’s tough to consider this an upgrade at the position. If anything, a new quarterback can at least provide a little bit of a spark to a team that really doesn’t have anything to play for at this point in the season. The formula for the Texans offense has to start with rookie running back Dameon Pierce. When the Texans have gotten some traction offensively, it’s been behind the tough running of Pierce and their big offensive line. The Dolphins are middle of the pack in terms of their rush defense, so watch this matchup closely. The biggest obstacle for Kyle Allen and the passing game is simply a lack of quality weapon to throw the football to. Teams have focused on taking Brandin Cooks away, and the somewhat disgruntled wideout hasn’t had the impact he has had in his previous seasons. If the Dolphins defense has a weakness right now it’s that they are pretty thin in the secondary with some key injuries. There’s little question the Texans are going to have the throw the ball at some point in this game, so someone else is besides Cooks is going to have to make some plays if they’re going to keep this competitive.
No offense has been hotter over the past month than the Miami Dolphins, as they’ve been both balanced and explosive. The addition of Jeff Wilson, Jr. has provided a slightly more physical element to their attack, and he should thrive against Houston’s weak run defense. Raheem Mostert is questionable in this contest, which is making the acquisition of Wilson look genius at the moment. In pure statistics, the Texans aren’t awful defending the pass, however it’s a misleading stat-line due to the fact teams are often ahead and not needing to throw. When you really look into their pass defense, they rank 28th in defensive pass EPA, and that doesn’t even take into account that rookie cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. looks like he won’t be able to go in this game. That means the usual suspects of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should be in line for more productivity as they’ll continue to be the top pass catching duo in the league. One final point to mention, is it’s going to be another hot and humid day in south Florida on Sunday, and visitors have really seemed to struggle with their conditioning in the heat. Unless the Texans can generate some great time of possession, their defense could be fatigued in addition to outmanned.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 games for the Dolphins
We’re at the point of the season where teams headed in different directions are starting to be reflected with lopsided spreads. Whether you’re a Tua believer or not, you can’t argue that he has absolutely crushed inferior teams and defenses. Or at least orchestrated that crushing with his talented weapons. In his last three weeks the Dolphins have notched 31, 35 and 39 points, respectively. There’s next to nothing to would lead us to believe the Dolphins offense won’t continue it’s dominance for at least one more week against this Texans defense in the heat. Chances are this game is a complete blowout, and we’re taking the Dolphins offense as the most assured thing with the result
BetCrushers Take: Miami Dolphins – Team Total – Over 30.5 Points
Dolphins 35, Texans 19
Chicago Bears vs. New York Jets
vs. 
Chicago Bears (3-8) vs. New York Jets (6-4)
Sunday November 27th
1:00pm
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
New York Jets -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under 38.5 (-110)
When the schedule came out we anticipated seeing a battle of second-year quarterbacks between Justin Fields and Zach Wilson. It’s currently unknown if Fields will go with an injury, although it appears he’s trending to play. What we do know is Wilson will not be lining up under center for the Jets, after a combination of a poor performance and even worse postgame presser landed him on the bench. Any slim hope of a playoff sport for the Bears would require a win, while the Jets are trying to keep pace in the loaded AFC East.
There’s really not much of a way to handicap the Chicago Bears offense until it’s clear whether or not Justin Fields will be able to start on Sunday. Say what you want about Fields, but the only thing keeping this offense on the field is his ability to scramble and make plays, keeping defenses honest. If Trevor Siemian ends up getting the start, it’s going to be a long day for the Bears on offense. Either way, the Bears will try to run the football, as that is clearly what their bread and butter is as an offense. That’s going to be tough against a Jets front led by Quinnen Williams that has been really good at stopping the run. The Bears offensive line has performed fairly well in run blocking, but they’ve been pretty bad in pass protection, some of which could probably be attributed to the unorthodox play of Fields. The Jets physical defensive front should be able to push the pocket and control the line of scrimmage in this contest. Bears offensive coordinator Bill Lazor is going to to need to come up with some creativity with their offensive game plan if they’re going to have success against this Jets defense.
Jets head coach Robert Saleh was really in a tough spot with what to do at the quarterback position after last weekend. He opted to make the change to Mike White, which for our money seems like the right decision at this point in time. The spread actually increased for the Jets when White was announced at starter, which tells you all you need to know about what sportsbooks think about Zach Wilson. We’re in agreement, as White seems to have better vision as a passer, and is also more aggressive. The Jets don’t exactly have all-star talent at the receiver position, but it’s not terrible either. Expect some of the Jets receivers who have been quiet for most of the season to string together some plays against this Bears defense. It’s a defense that has really been struggling, specifically after offloading some of their key talent, such as leader and captain Roquan Smith. They’ll also potentially be missing or limited with starting corner Kyler Gordon and safety Jaquan Brisker, important pieces in their secondary. Combine that with the fact Chicago hasn’t been great stopping the run, and the Jets should be able to move the ball better than they have in recent weeks.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bears are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
Again, handicapping this game is tough without knowing the status of Justin Fields. What we do know is the Jets offense should find some room against a Bears defense that isn’t very good. We also are banking on the fact that Mike White is going to provide a spark for the team as a whole, not just in the passing game. It’s understandably concerning to take an over in the year 2022, particularly with a Jets team that is averaging 20 points per game. If there were ever a circumstance to project getting two additional points, a home matchup with the Bears and a new quarterback would seem to be it. As long as the Bears can score some points the Jets should get over their total.
BetCrushers Take: New York Jets – Team Total Over 21.5 Points / Teaser Eagles -.5 and Jets +.5
Jets 24, Bears 17
Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (7-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
Sunday November 27th
1:00pm
TIAA Bank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
The 7-3 Baltimore Ravens head to Jacksonville where they’ll square off with the 3-7 Jacksonville Jaguars in the early window on Sunday. Despite their differing records, both of these teams have played a lot of really close games so far this season. Will the Jaguars defense be able to slow down Lamar Jackson, and can their offense attack their improving Baltimore defense?
The Ravens got more than they bargained for last week from a Panthers defense as they struggled to get to 13 points in their victory. Things should lighten up a little bit this week against a Jaguars defense that isn’t great, particularly against the pass. Jacksonville has been decent at slowing down the run, however the Ravens aren’t the prototypical running offense. They should get Gus Edwards back this week to provide some balance to Kenyan Drake, and of course Lamar Jackson. The trickier part in this game for the Ravens is they’re going to have to figure out a way to throw the ball at some point to truly push this Jaguar defense. Having Mark Andrews back will certainly help, but who can step up at the wide receiver position without Rashod Bateman? Demarcus Robinson showed some spark a week ago, however he sustained his own injury and it looks like he won’t be able to play Sunday. Can Greg Roman find some magic with Lamar to attack what has been a somewhat undisciplined defense for the Jaguars?
The game plan for the Jaguars success has been pretty simple since trading away James Robinson and making Travis Etienne, Jr. the featured back. Get the ball into the hands of the 2nd year running back and watch him make some plays. Earlier in the season, this could have presented a serious problem for the Ravens, as they were missing some pieces and struggling to stop opposing runners. Since getting some players back from injury and adding Jason Pierre-Paul and Roquan Smith, they’ve really tightened some things up. Etienne may need to do some damage through the air in this game if he’s going to be the centerpiece of this offense again. Trevor Lawrence has definitely had an up and down sophomore campaign in the league, and he’s got a challenge against the Ravens to be certain. He struggled with the pass rush in their last game against the Chiefs, and the Ravens pass rushers have really picked things up in recent weeks. The scariest difference here for Lawrence, is the secondary for the Ravens is better than what he faced in the Chiefs. He needs to be really careful with the football, and recognize that a punt isn’t the worst thing in the world if a play isn’t there.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Ravens are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 games
– The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games
The Baltimore Ravens are a somewhat difficult team to figure out, both because of a changing depth chart, but also inconsistent offensive play. The Jaguars have been feisty in most of their games this season, despite just a 1-6 mark against the spread over their last seven contests. The hook is definitely a little scary here for us, but the Ravens have actually played better on the road than they have at home this year. Road chalk is mostly a losing proposition in NFL betting, but when you pick the right spots, you can make it happen. Here’s to hoping this is one of those right spots, as these two teams are on different levels at this point of the year.
BetCrushers Take: Baltimore Ravens -3.5
Ravens 27, Jaguars 21
Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders
vs. 
Atlanta Falcons (5-6) vs. Washington Commanders (6-4)
Sunday November 27th
1:00pm
FedEx Field – Landover, MD
Washington Commanders -4 (-110)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
In all honestly, we would have expected this game having nearly zero potential impact on the playoff picture when we saw the schedules come out to start the season. By playing in the NFC South, the Atlanta Falcons are just a half game out for the lead in the division. The Commanders on the other hand are on a roll and very much alive in the wild card discussion. The winner of this game will keep their playoff chances alive, and the loser will find themselves with their back against the wall.
The offense has stalled a bit for the Falcons after a nice start to the season. An injury to tight end Kyle Pitts will further limit them in their game against the Commanders, despite the fact that Pitts was largely a disappointment as a receiver. What the Falcons have done well, is consistently run the football behind surprising Tyler Allgeier and Cordarelle Patterson. This is a really tough spot for Atlanta with a Washington defense that has been playing really well in recent weeks. Their defensive line is making an impact, and their secondary is turning out to be one of the best in the league behind their strong safety duo of Kamren Curl and Darrick Forest. They will be without starting corner Benjamin St.-Juste, but the Falcons don’t necessarily have the receiving weapons to take advantage of this. Maybe more importantly, they really don’t have the quarterback to take advantage of this. Mariota has played well when the Falcons are ahead, and in the comfort of their home stadium. Where he’s had some struggles, is when the Falcons can’t establish the run and are in obvious passing situations. Look for the Commanders to play a lot of cover one with a safety in the box, especially on early downs.
If there’s ever an argument for mental fortitude over talent at the quarterback position, it might be what we’re seeing right now in Washington. Taylor Heinicke is scrappy and tough, but clearly doesn’t have the pure talent that Carson Wentz possesses. What he does have going for him is a belief from his teammates that they can move the football and win games. The other thing he has going against the Falcons is he should have plenty of time in the pocket to throw to his receivers. Atlanta ranks dead last in putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which is great news for a team structured like the Commanders. Heinicke just needs a little time to get the ball to a trio of talented wide receivers. Jahan Dotson could get really worked back into the fold in this game against a thin Atlanta secondary, even if he doesn’t get the targets Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel will see. Perhaps the most interesting piece to watch in this game is how committed the Commanders will be with the run when they have such an advantage with the pass? This is the type of game where Washington should use the pass to set up the run.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Falcons are 1-6 straight up in their last 7 road games
– The Commanders are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Commanders are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 games
Effort should be there for both of these teams as each want to keep their playoff dreams alive heading into December. The Falcons were the darlings against the spread to begin the season, and now we’re starting to see that regression of late. The Commanders on the other hand are rolling and seem to have some much needed confidence in all phases of the game. This is purely a matchup play as Washington shouldn’t meet a ton of resistance when on offense, and their improved defense should hold the Falcons at bay. If the playoff implications weren’t enough for us to keep watch on this game, our wager against the spread sure will be.
BetCrushers Take: Washington Commanders -4
Commanders 27, Falcons 20
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
vs. 
Green Bay Packers (4-7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)
Sunday November 27th
8:20pm
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)
Sunday Night Football has a pretty marquee matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles. In reality, this game is featuring an Eagles team that is trying to secure the top seed in the conference, and a Packers team that is limping towards the offseason. A slow start, a lack of weapons, and injuries have thwarted the Packers efforts thus far, while the Eagles are adding talent weekly it seems in their quest for a Super Bowl appearance. Can the Packers find some magic in Philly, or will this be a mismatch on both sides of the ball?
The timing of Aaron Rodgers announcing his broken thumb is interesting, and helps explain some of the inaccuracies that we’ve seen over the last six weeks of the season. Rodgers will tough it out for at least another week on the road in primetime against a physical Eagles defense. The past few weeks Philly’s defense hasn’t looked as physical as they were run over by opposing offensive lines and running backs. The Packers offense at this stage has to be a run first offense by default, and Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will look to continue the assault on the Eagles interior. Philadelphia didn’t just want to wait for the return of rookie Jordan Davis, they went ahead and grabbed the top two free agent defensive tackles on the market bringing in Linval Joseph and N’Damukong Suh. We don’t know just yet how much either have left in the tank, but these moves seem really smart from general manager Howie Roseman. This should allow a solid rotation that will limit all of their big bodies to playing a manageable amount of snaps for the rest of the season. In their primes, these tackles were as good as it as gets. They’ll get a big test against Jones and Dillon, and we might get a glimpse at how the team plans to utilize them moving forward. The Packers have to run the football in this game if they’re going to score some points as it’s tough to see how the wounded Rodgers is going to be able to throw. The Packers uninspiring receivers are going to struggle against the secondary for the Eagles. Green Bay can’t fall behind and put Rodgers in completely obvious passing situations.
Who knew that Jalen Hurts would be the potential MVP candidate quarterback in a matchup when Aaron Rodgers is on the field? Despite cooling off in recent weeks, along with the team, Hurts is still playing really good football. The offensive game plan for the Eagles in this game is going to come down to how patient the team is willing to be with running the football. The Packers have not been great stopping the run all season, especially when attacked run between the tackles. That’s not generally how the Eagles setup their offensive scheme, so how much they’re willing to adapt is going to be something to keep an eye on. Green Bay has been pretty solid behind the strength of their secondary, at slowing down opposing passing games. They have the type of cornerbacks that can matchup with A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, and things are definitely easier without having to account for injured tight end Dallas Goedert. Will Philadelphia stay patient and hand the ball to Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell and take the time consuming drives that will likely be available to them? This has the feel of a game where only good things should happen for their offense if they hand it off, where potentially bad things could happen if they start slinging it around.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Packers are 1-6 straight up in their last 7 games
– The Packers are 1-5 straight up in their last 6 road games
– The Eagles are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
Publicly there still seems to be some sentiment that the Green Bay Packers are the team that we recall from the previous four seasons or so. In reality, people need to accept that this team behind a banged up Rodgers simply isn’t a playoff caliber team this year. The Eagles on the other hand want to recapture some of the spark they had earlier in the season when they were dynamic and looking like the clear-cut favorite in the NFC to get to the Super Bowl. It’s a prime time matchup so we should see both teams giving effort, but at this point the Eagles simply have the better roster at nearly every position. Rodgers could be under a lot of pressure and if he can’t pull a rabbit out of a hat, this could be one of those games we look back on as one of the battles that helped wind down his Hall of Fame career. We like the Eagles against the spread and in an obvious teaser leg, so we’re doubling down on Philly here.
