Previous Week Plays – 2-1
Season Record – 23-22-2
Week 11 Recap:
A small betting card for week 11 yielded a small profit as we cashed both of our Sunday plays, before failing to cover the Monday Night contest. The teaser bet was never really in question, and the Vikings eclipsed their team total early in the 4th quarter. (If for some reason you didn’t catch Adam Thielen’s touchdown catch in that game, check out the link below). We underestimated the impact the Rams defensive line would have against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers offense. TB was never really able to get their offense going, and even though they had a chance on the final drive to win and cover, Brady threw up a punt that was intercepted sealing the game. The Bucs were clearly the wrong side so we aren’t too proud to admit we misread that game, although we were hoping for a cover anyhow.
Week 12 Picks:
Another smaller slate for the BetCrushers this Sunday as we had a lot of action on Thanksgiving day. Make sure to keep an eye out for our props article as we’ll be loaded up with player props. We settled on three posted picks, although we’ll likely have some action on team total for the Cleveland Browns as they should run through the porous Jags defense. We’ve got an NFC match of two teams aiming to keep their very slim playoff hopes alive. An important game in the AFC South is the second contest we’re focused one, and we’ll wrap up with a teaser involving some prime-time important NFC games.
Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings
vs. 
Carolina Panthers (4-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-6)
Sunday November 29th
1:00pm
FOX
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Minnesota Vikings -4 (EVEN)
Over/Under 51.5 (-110)
The Minnesota Vikings are home again fresh off a deflating loss to the Dallas Cowboys that essentially put an end to their mini-surge toward the playoffs. The Panthers dominated a flat Detroit Lions team behind backup quarterback P.J. Walker and will welcome back Teddy Bridgewater behind center. The winner of this game will still have a little bit of life in the playoff chase, while the loser will be all but finished in the 2020 campaign.
P.J. Walker played pretty well in relief last week as the Panthers were able to showcase their talented wide receivers. Teddy Bridgewater should have similar success in this contest as Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore have a clear advantage against the cornerbacks of the Vikings. Add in the versatile Curtis Samuel and the Panthers should have no issues making big plays against Minnesota. Mike Davis continues to prove valuable filling in for Christian McCaffrey and he should also find enough room on the ground to keep the defense honest. A problem all season for the Vikings has been their pass rush as the loss of Danielle Hunter and trade of Yannick Ngakoue have really hampered their rush off of the edge. The Panthers offensive line has played well all season and should be able to win their matchup in the trenches. It is worth noting that left tackle Russell Okung is questionable and his status is an important one.
The Vikings offense continues to roll as Dalvin Cook is an automatic 100 yard rusher no matter how much defenses know he’s coming at them. He’ll have another big day against the Panthers soft run defense as their loss of Kawann Short has left their interior exposed. It will be crucial for the Vikings to be either winning or at the very least in a close contest so they can continue to run their offense through Cook. With Adam Thielen due to miss the game on the COVID-19 protocol list, Kirk Cousins loses his favorite target. Justin Jefferson is more than capable of stepping up, even as a rookie, but does Cousins have the synergy with him that he does with Thielen? More importantly, the Panthers should be able to slide their coverage to Jefferson in the passing game and play strong safety Juston Burris in the box to help with Cook. Cousins has done better in recent weeks getting the ball to tight ends Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith, Jr., two players that will need to step up in Thielen’s absence.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Panthers are 6-3 ATS this season
Every so often the Vikings put together a really dominant performance where they look like a complete and strong football team. It’s worth betting against this happening though as the team will be without Adam Thielen which means the team should be able to be more aggressive versus the run. It’s also possible the Vikings could be a little flat after their season was basically ended last week. This wager is really more about the Panthers though as they have a nice matchup, and Teddy Bridgewater is possibly the best covering QB in the league. If you like playing “live dogs”, the Panthers moneyline provides some value here. Because we have this line over the key number of three we’re going to take the points in what figures to be a close game.
BetCrushers Take: Carolina Panthers +4
Vikings 30, Panthers 28
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (7-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7-3)
Sunday November 29th
1:00pm
CBS
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Indianapolis Colts -3 (-120)
Over/Under 51 (-110)
For the second time this season, one of the quiet and best games of the weekend will feature the two teams vying for the AFC South title between the Titans and the Colts. This game opened at a Colts -2.5 spread and figures to be a typical battle that will come down to the 4th quarter and who can make the bigger plays.
The Titans got a break in this game as the Colts defensive tackle and prized free agent DeForest Buckner will miss the game due to a positive COVID test. Not that Derrick Henry isn’t capable of running through good defenses, but things got a little softer up the middle in the running game. The Colts should still be able to contain Henry enough to where he doesn’t wreck the game for them, however, a heavy dose of four yard carries would work for Tennessee in this game. Even more importantly, this should allow the Titans to not be predictable or one-dimensional, which is a key for their offense. The most important player in this game is quarterback Ryan Tannehill. He will need to do two obvious and important things for the Titans to have success here. First is take care of the football, as this Colts team can feast on turnovers. Second, he needs to hit some big plays. There’s nothing wrong with long drives if they result in scores, but with Tennessee’s defense a little suspect, they may need to find ways to get some plays over the top of the stout Colt defense.
No one will mistake the Colts offense this season as the 2000 Rams, but when they don’t give the ball away either, they can be really solid. If you’re a Colts fan, the best matchup in this game is the offensive line of Indy against a non-existent pass rush of the Titans. Philip Rivers has proven again this year that as long as the pocket is clean he can find his receivers and make plays. Additionally, the Colts running back by committee approach should keep them fresh throughout this game. Speaking of committees, the Colts wide receiving corp has spread the targets and catches around as well as any team in the league as they truly do not have a number one wide receiver. T.Y. Hilton would like to get back into the mix in that department, but Rivers clearly is taking what the defense is giving him. Look for Rivers to work the middle of the field in this ballgame so Trey Burton, Jack Doyle and Moe Alie-Cox should see a lot of work as well. Much as we discussed big plays for the Titans offense, the Colts will need to hit a couple of these as well. The Titans defense has given up as many big plays as any unit in the league so Rivers will need to exploit this.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 7 of the last 9 Titans games
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 7 Titans games in the AFC South
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 Colts games
This isn’t the first time we’ve gone with a Titans over and we’ll repeat the theory here. This team, which is known for tough defense and running ends up in a lot of passing shootouts. They’ve routinely been an “over” team since the installation of Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. Despite owning a good defense, the Colts also should contribute to this over in a couple of ways. Philip Rivers has played very well when he has time inside the pocket. That’ll be the case Sunday as the Titans are one of the worst teams at rushing opposing passers. With DeForest Buckner sidelined, the Titans should be able to run the ball just well enough to move it and give Tannehill time to throw. With the game being indoors, coming winter weather won’t be an issue impacting the offenses or quarterbacks.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 51
Colts 29, Titans, 26
Teaser Bet
Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Seattle Seahawks (7-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1)
Monday November 30th
8:15pm
ESPN
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Seattle Seahawks -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under 49.5 (-110)
Chicago Bears (5-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-3)
Sunday November 29th
8:20pm
NBC
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -8.5 (-115)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Seattle +.5 and Green Bay -2.5
We’re going to feature both of the primetime games in a teaser this week as Sunday Night and Monday Night Football bring some key NFC showdowns. This week’s teaser technically contains a betting “no-no” as we’re crossing over zero with Seattle, but it’s basically the same as getting the game as a pick so let’s not worry about semantics. The Seahawks will need to get a road win at a struggling Philadelphia, and the Packers will have to hold serve at home against the rival Chicago Bears
After a few weeks of very mediocre quarterback play, Russell Wilson re-emerged with a fantastic performance last week as the Seahawks got back on track in the NFC West. He’s got another favorable matchup against an Eagles defense that doesn’t match up particularly well with Seattle. Philly has still been solid stopping the run, however that isn’t really what the Seahawks will be looking to do Monday. While Darius Slay, Jr. should be able to slow down either Tyler Lockett or D.K. Metcalf, the rest of the Eagles secondary is going to struggle against the speed of the Seattle receivers and the deep accuracy of Wilson. It also feels like Wilson realized that he still can use his legs in big spots when needed, and against a weak linebacking corp for the Eagles he could escape the pocket and make some plays that way, particularly on third downs. Flipping over, the Eagles are once again forced to go with a makeshift offensive line as Lane Johnson is officially lost for the season with his ankle injury. The only good news in this game is that no team has gotten after quarterbacks less than the Seahawks, so Carson Wentz may stay clean for a change. Although recent acquisition Carlos Dunlap gave the Hawks’ a boost last week with some big plays. The key for the Eagles is going to be whether or not they can get Miles Sanders going against a good rush defense for the Seahawks. This game could end up being high scoring and might be a fun one to watch. Ultimately, Russell Wilson should find a way to get Seattle another much needed win.
The Sunday Night Football game showcases the return of Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky who takes back over weeks after being benched. Bears head coach Matt Nagy feels Trubisky has grown from the experience, or at least is publicly stating that he did. The good news for Trubisky is he does have familiarity against their division foe so he should feel relatively comfortable in his first start in a couple of months. The Bears will get running back David Montgomery back, which will help, as the way to attack Green Bay is on the ground. It’s legitimately possible that Trubisky could actually lead the team in rushing in this game, and if he does, it may be their best opportunity to pull the road upset. The other best opportunity, will of course rest on the backs of their still vaunted defense. Khalil Mack has proven he likes to shine in big games, and in a game where Chicago is both fighting for its playoff life and playing on the national stage, you know their defense will show up. The Pack’ is glad to have back starting left tackle David Bakhtiari back in the lineup, and that comes just in time. Can the Bears do enough to throw Aaron Rodgers off his game at Lambeau Field, where he owns one of the best home records in recent history? Don’t expect Rodgers to have a marquee performance against this defense, but don’t count that out either. Much as is the case with the Packers defense, the Bears defense is also vulnerable against the run. When Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are having success, this GB team is extremely difficult to stop.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bears are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 games vs. the Bears
– The Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games
– The Seahawks are 6-0 straight up and ATS in their last 6 games vs the Eagles
– The Eagles are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games
If you’ve followed the BetCrushers you already know the routine. Elite quarterbacks getting points to where they need to only win straight up against lesser opponents is always going to be a bet for us. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are two of the top three quarterbacks in the league right now and are facing teams that have some obvious issues. They’re going to get maximum effort from their opponents and these could be close games. At the end of the day, the Packers and Seahawks need to win these games as this should be a case of the contenders weeding out the pretenders for this season.
