Previous Week Plays – 1-4-1
Season Record – 21-21-2
Week 10 Recap:
After a hot start to the season, the BetCrushers are now sitting at exactly .500 with our posted plays after back-to-back disappointing NFL weekends. Let’s review Sunday to see exactly what happened: At 3:30pm things were looking fantastic as the total in the Tampa Bay and Carolina game had already gone over (our single win of the day). The Steelers dominated the Bengals in the first leg of our teaser setting up a simple win needed in the nightcap. The Browns were up 10-0 against the Texans, and with 11:00 minutes left in the game, we simply needed four points to get the total over between the Eagles and Giants. Daniel Jones punched his second rushing touchdown of the game in and we popped the champagne to celebrate a strong start to the day. Unfortunately, a fairly weak holding call brought the touchdown back, the Giants ended up kicking a field goal, and no one scored for the remainder of the game. As this was developing, the Texans scored a touchdown against a soft prevent defense which put us in push range, until Nick Chubb breaks a run! We all know how that one turned out, feel free to check the video below if you want to re-live that insanity. Starting 1-1-1 plus a first leg teaser win in the afternoon isn’t awful, but the mojo just seemed bleak at that point as we watched the Chargers fall a field goal short of their team total before losing our double-dip play in the Ravens game with our teaser. Sometimes the handicapping is wrong, sometimes the ball doesn’t bounce your way. We got a little of both last Sunday and can only hope the betting Gods are more in our favor this weekend.
Week 11 Picks:
It’s probably a little “gun-shy” factor with our selections this week, but we’re going to go a little smaller with only three posted plays. Like a quarterback that’s thrown an interception, you have to keep throwing, but it’s just so hard to back a team like the Cowboys when real money is on the line. (We obviously lean toward Dallas). There are also a lot of question marks with quarterbacks and injuries, etc. Instead we’re sticking with some better teams and hoping that the teams that are at the top of the food chain can start to establish their dominance as the season pushes ahead. One play against the spread, one team total, and one teaser so pick your poison if you’re tailing. Best of luck to you, and certainly to us in week number eleven!
Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
vs. 
Los Angeles Rams (6-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3)
Monday November 23rd
8:15pm
ESPN
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (-115)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
Both the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have their sights on overtaking the top spot in their respective divisions when they meet in on Monday Night Football. The Rams have been riding their defense in recent weeks, but will have a tough task containing the array of weapons on the Buccaneers.
The Los Angeles Rams are quietly putting together a really solid season on both sides of the football. They haven’t been bad offensively, yet they really haven’t seemed to be clicking consistently either. Their matchup with the Buccaneers is a tough one as Tampa will have the advantage in the trenches as the Rams offensively line is in a bit of a flux. The loss of Andrew Whitworth at left tackle means Jared Goff’s blindside could be exposed by Jason Pierre-Paul and the talented linebackers of the Bucs’. Throughout his career Goff has been the stereotypical NFL pocket passing quarterback in the sense that he can be great when he has time, and struggle when under pressure. The key for LA is getting something established with their running game so TB can’t simply tee off on Jared Goff. That’s going to be a tall task against one of the top run defenses in the league. This unit has been a little more beatable since they lost Vita Vea for the season. Two players that could be big contributors in this offense are tight ends Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett who could see a lot of short targets in the passing game.
The league got a glimpse at what the Buccaneer offense has the potential to be as they carved up a suspect Carolina defense last weekend. Things will be much tougher against the Rams, a team that is molded more similarly to the New Orleans Saints. The big difference between the two is the Rams really rely on Jalen Ramsey to zero out a star wide receiver, whereas the Saints are a little deeper across their defense. The Bucs’ will cause problems because they have so many capable wide receivers and tight ends to try to match up with. The Rams will look to pressure Brady as much as they can without blitzing and how well the Tampa offensive line can hold up against Aaron Donald and company will be an obvious key.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Rams are 2-6 straight up in their last 8 road games
– The Buccaneers are averaging 30 points per game
The line for this game has fluctuated between 3 and 4 since opening and it’s not impossible to still find a 3 or 3.5 and buy the half point if you choose. We’ve got it played at -3, but are posting publicly here at -3.5 as that’s where it sits presently on most sportsbooks. The truth is that even those this line seems fair, the Buccaneers have way too much in their favor in this game. The Rams offense struggled flying across the country and playing against a similar type of defense in Miami. Look for a frustrating day for Jared Goff and the offense. The Los Angeles defense will put forth a game effort, but there will simply be too much to overcome in what should be a solid Tampa Bay victory.
BetCrushers Take: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5
Buccaneers 24, Rams 17
Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings
vs. 
Dallas Cowboys (2-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
Sunday November 22nd
4:25pm
FOX
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Minnesota Vikings -7 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
Only two games separate the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings in the win column, yet their trajectories feel as though they could not be more different. As hard as it is to imagine, each has a path to the playoffs if they can string together some wins in the second half of the season.
Andy Dalton looks like he’ll be ready to go for the Dallas Cowboys which elevates this team to a more competitive level. We’re not necessarily expecting Dalton to go for 400 and 4 touchdowns, but he should be able to utilize his offensive weapons well enough to keep this game interesting. What will also help is this offensive line is as healthy as it’s been in over a month which should help Dalton and Ezekiel Elliott. After a rough first month to start the season, the Viking defense has really started to play better of late. However, even the great recent play of their safety duo may not be enough to help their corners with the Dallas wide receivers. Much as we mentioned with Jared Goff in their game, Andy Dalton is also a quarterback that can make things happen if he has time to throw the ball. The pass rush of the Vikings will be a huge key to whether or not the Cowboys can hang with them in this game.
The Vikings offense can look pedestrian at times, yet it seems like they end up with 28 points every game. (That is about what they’re averaging). It’s no secret that this offense goes through running back Dalvin Cook, and that’s not a good thing for the Dallas Cowboys. The defense for Dallas has been allowing over 5 yards per carry to opposing running backs and have given up a lot of big plays. Dallas really has no choice but to sell out in an effort to slow down Cook. There’s a question mark around whether or not that will even matter as Cook is locked in and shredding every defense he faces. Cook actually put up just under 100 yards last year against a better Cowboy defense than he’ll face Sunday. If the Boys’ can slow him, down Kirk Cousins is going to see a lot of single coverage with his talented wide receivers. If you caught our DFS article earlier in the week, you may notice that we’re really high on Justin Jefferson this week as he could help Cook in the big play department. As is always the case with Minnesota, the performance by quarterback Kirk Cousins will be a key. The good news for the team in purple is he performs much better at home and against lesser opponents and defenses.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cowboys are allowing 32 points per game this season
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 5 home games for the Vikings
The return of Andy Dalton cannot be understated, as wild as that may sound. It’s certainly possible that the Vikings blow the doors off of the Cowboys if they get an early lead, but we actually think this game is going to be a really close one. As badly as we want to pull the trigger with the Cowboys, we simply cannot do it. We found a separate play in this game that seems a little more secure. The Cowboys are allowing over 32 points per game this season and the Vikings team total is set at only 27.5. It would seem like the only way the Vikings don’t get to 28 points would be if they get up 21-3 and take their foot off the gas. Even in that scenario there are all sorts of possibilities to hit the over. Andy Dalton should help this offense at least keep this game competitive, meaning the Vikings will need to play a 60 minute game. An “average” day for the Vikings will get them over their total.
BetCrushers Take: Minnesota Vikings Total – Over 27.5
Vikings 32, Cowboys 26
Teaser Bet
Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
vs.
and 
vs. 
Green Bay Packers (7-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-3)
Sunday November 22nd
4:25pm
FOX
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Indianapolis Colts -2 (-110)
Over/Under 51.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (6-3)
Sunday November 22nd
8:20pm
NBC
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 (-115)
Over/Under 57 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Green Bay +8 and Kansas City -1.5
Teasers can be playing with fire if you’re going against good quarterbacking and coaching, which is exactly what we’re doing this Sunday. Throw in the fact that we’re taking the road teams and it’s fine to think we’re crazy. Our logic is simple though, as we’re doing so having even better quarterbacking and coaching on our sides.
The Green Bay Packers strong offense and opportunistic defense take on the Indianapolis Colts strong defense and opportunistic offense. It’s definitely a strength on strength type game. Let’s quickly break down some positives for each team. The Colts run defense has been good all season which should slow down Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. On offense, they’re starting to find more rhythm and spreading the ball around a lot. Philip Rivers has had some of the best games in his career against the Packers. On the other side, Aaron Rodgers is playing at an MVP level and Davante Adams is the best wide receiver in the NFL. This game is truly going to be a grudge match.
Leg number two of the teaser features an important AFC West game as the Kansas City Chiefs look to avenge their only loss of the season against the rival Las Vegas Raiders. The familiarity between these two makes these game interesting as the Raiders understand the way to beat the Chiefs is to outscore them offensively. Las Vegas is running the football well and Derek Carr has been a game manager that is making big plays when they’re presented to him. We’re believers in Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and trust that he’ll have a sharper plan to slow down the silver and black in this rematch. The Chiefs were a little too pass happy in their first meeting and Andy Reid took responsibility for that loss. Since then the team has done a somewhat better job trying to remain balanced and they’ll want to try to do that again here.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs the AFC
– The Chiefs are 9-0 straight up in their last 9 AFC west road games
– The Chiefs are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 road games
– The Raiders are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 home games vs the Chiefs
This teaser goes against all of our normal teaser tendencies, but we’re riding with it anyways. The line is tight in the Packers/Colts game for a reason as this game is going to be extremely tight. It seems like the Colts might have just a slight edge, but is that Indy team really good enough to beat Aaron Rodgers by more than a touchdown? The Sunday Night game comes down to this question: Will Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes get swept by the Raiders in a primetime game? Our two teams have ever so slight advantages in the key areas and the numbers line up to take a shot with this one.
