Previous Week Plays – 1-3
Season Record – 20-17-1
Week 9 Recap:
Frustration boiled over in week number nine as a second losing weekend in a row pushes our seasonal mark to barely profitable with our posted plays. Some weeks are stranger than others, and that was clearly the case for us. We had one game pegged to a tee with our win of the Ravens at the Colts, but completely missed on our other three plays. We knew we were bucking the “sharp” trends by laying near two touchdowns with the Steelers against the Cowboys, but still felt great about the pick and the matchup. That cover was never in reach as the Cowboys jumped out to an early lead and the Steelers didn’t look like they even knew they were playing until the second half. Our other two plays were both lost pretty early as well as the Bills took it to the Seahawks swiss cheese defense, and the Cards/Dolphins was a track meet from the first quarter on.
Week 10 Picks:
A lot of really interesting matchups this weekend with young quarterback showdowns, several divisional battles, and some teams playing to basically keep their season alive. We’re staying busy with 6 various wagers, a potpourri of against the spread, totals, and a teaser. We’ve featured the Ravens and Patriots game in both a straight bet and as a leg of the teaser. The last time we double-dipped with a posted play we got burned twice as the Cardinals were inept. Our breakdown gives us a lot of hope that we’ll even things up there, and more importantly get back to a winning weekend after a two week mid-season lull. Whatever you play this weekend, have fun and best of luck!
Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns
vs. 
Houston Texans (2-6) vs. Cleveland Browns (5-3)
Sunday November 15th
1:00pm
FOX
FirstEnergy Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Cleveland Browns -3 (-115)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
After unseasonably warm weather in the Midwest a week ago, potential cold and wind is in the forecast in Cleveland where the Browns host the Texans. The Browns want to keep pace in the AFC North, while the Texans hope to build some momentum after securing just their second win of the season in week number nine.
Houston may not be in the playoff chase in what started as a disastrous season, but Deshaun Watson is still making big plays for his team. His play is impressive as the work of his offensive line and running game have been average at the very best. Knowing that the Texans can’t do much running the football, Myles Garrett and the Browns defensive line are going to pose a challenge to Watson. The strength of the Texans passing game relies on big plays down the field with their speedy wideouts and with the combination of the Browns pass rush and potentially windy weather that could make things tough for them in sustaining offense. The Browns have given up their share of big plays this season, however if their defensive line can dominate this game as it should, it’ll protect the deficiencies in the secondary.
The Browns offense looked just fine without Odell Beckham, Jr. and they’ll want to continue to spread the wealth in the passing game. The biggest key to this game is with the strong offensive line of the Browns squaring up with a front seven for Houston that has really had trouble stopping power running. While OBJ will not be in the lineup, the team will welcome back running back Nick Chubb who will lead the potent ground attack with his backfield mate Kareem Hunt. If the weather does end up being a factor the Browns could end up with 200+ rushing yards when this game is a wrap. Even if the weather isn’t a big issue, look for Cleveland to assert their muscle early on. Taking a quick glance at the passing game, this is the type of game where Baker Mayfield should look really sharp. The Texans have not defended the pass well and as we’ve noted before, Mayfield tends to play really well at home. He may not end up throwing much, but as long as he takes care of the football, the Browns should walk away with a nice home win.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Browns are 7-2 straight up in their last 9 home games
– The Texans are 1-7 ATS in the 2020 season
There was a meme circulating about the life cycle of Baker Mayfield and the Browns. The synopsis was that this team goes from being great, to being the same old Browns on repeat. This is clearly one of those games where the Browns are going to handle their business at home against a team that they own the advantage against in the trenches and in the running game. This line has been hovering around 3 points so make sure you shop it around for the best value.
BetCrushers Take: Cleveland Browns -3
Browns 27, Texans 20
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
vs. 
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1) vs. New York Giants (2-7)
Sunday November 15th
1:00pm
FOX
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (EVEN)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
A quick rematch in the NFC East as the Eagles will play the Giants for the second time in the last month. The Eagles opened around a field goal favorite in a game that will certainly have implications in the division no matter what the records state. A Giants win would further muddy the standings, while an Eagles victory would give them a nice position heading into the second half of the season.
It’s easy to be critical of Carson Wentz as he’s turned the football over at an embarrassing pace and been inefficient in the red zone. Don’t be so quick to dismiss him as he’s also mostly single-handedly carried a team riddled with injuries on offense. The best news for Wentz is his offense is finally starting to piece itself back together as he will have his main weapon Miles Sanders back at running back, a healthier Dallas Goedert at tight end and rookie Jalen Raegor at wide receiver. These additions are huge matching up against the Giants who have played well against teams without a variety of weapons, but had trouble against teams that can spread it out. Miles Sanders should have a big day in his return and one of the Eagle receivers should find room. That’ll probably be whichever receiver is not lined up across from James Bradberry who continues to play well at the cornerback position. As always, it won’t be sexy to watch, but an also-improving in health offensive line for the Eagles will fight all day with the Giants defense.
Most people thought the Giants offense was dead in the water when Saquon Barkley went down with his season ending injury. It’s taken some time, but it feels like the Giants offense has at least figured out how to adapt to what they are right now. In this game, they’re probably going to end up one-dimensional however, as it’s difficult to imagine Wayne Gallman and Devonta Freeman are going to be able to do much on the ground against the interior of the Eagles line. The jury is still out on quarterback Daniel Jones, but he’s still shown some flashes that make the team believe he can be the franchise player they need him to be. Fortunately for Jones the best way to beat this Philadelphia defense is through the air. Although they’ve cleaned things up a bit from a year ago, they’re still not elite defending opposing receivers and tight ends. Jones will have his compliment of weapons at wide receiver so he should be able to make enough plays to keep this game competitive. Perhaps the biggest one-on-one battle here is Giants left tackle Andrew Thomas against Brandon Graham. If Thomas doesn’t hold up, there could be some big mistakes and negative plays for New York, which would derail their shot at a small upset.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 7 Eagles road games
– The total has gone over in the last 5 Eagles/Giants games in NY
– The total has gone over in 8 of the last 11 Eagles/Giants games
The Eagles have really owned the Giants in recent years and more than likely they’re going to complete a sweep of them again after Sunday’s game. If you can find the Eagles at -3 you can certainly consider laying the points. The play we like here is actually the total going over. In the 2020 NFL season, 44.5 points is really a pretty low benchmark. A healthier Eagles offense should generate some points, and the Giants should stay competitive enough to keep the scoring going.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 44.5
Eagles 27, Giants 22
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
vs. 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-6)
Sunday November 15th
1:00pm
FOX
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 (-110)
Over/Under 50.5 (-110)
Just a week removed from being “favorites” in the NFC, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were dismantled at the hands of the Saints. The Carolina Panthers gave the Chiefs all they could handle before falling just short at Arrowhead. A loss here would likely put an end to the Panthers season, however it might be the Buccaneers who need this win psychologically.
The world collectively watched in shock as the immortal Tom Brady looked completely inept, confused and frustrated on Sunday Night. The Saints battered Brady into mistakes in a game that the Bucs’ were never really in. Brady and the TB have a friendlier matchup against a Panthers defense that has improved with speed and youth, but has had issues giving up big plays in both the running and passing game. How will offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and head coach Bruce Arians reshape this offense which has a lot of hungry mouths to feed? As appealing as it is to spread the football around, Arians said the team wants to get back to basics. This is the perfect game to do so as Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette should both have nice games against a porous interior of a defense. Where Tampa couldn’t get anything going against the Saints, getting the ground game moving should give Brady the time he needs when he does throw the football. As bad as Brady played last week, it was the struggles of his offensive line that have to be more concerning. This needs to be a get-right spot for the big men upfront, and it will.
2020 will probably not be a playoff season for the Panthers, but there is a lot to be excited about if you’re a fan of the team. Teddy Bridgewater has proven he is a legitimate starting quarterback in this league and the team has weapons around him. Their biggest weapon Christian McCaffrey, is back on the shelf after a one game comeback from injury. We can welcome back running back Mike Davis, who filled in admirably in McCaffrey’s first stint on the IR list. Davis will not have easy sledding against the stout Bucs’ run defense, yet he should still be effective as a pass catcher. Davis averaged nearly 5 receptions a game in his starts. The players to watch though are on the outside starting with Robby Anderson who continues to put up big numbers. Somehow this team needs to get D.J. Moore back rolling as he’s been extremely quiet the last couple of weeks. Expect Bridgewater to be forced to throw a lot in this game. As he always tends to do, he’ll keep his team competitive.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 7 Tampa Bay divisional games
– The total has gone over in 9 of the last 12 road games for Tampa Bay
The demise of Tom Brady has been greatly exaggerated more than a few times throughout his illustrious career. We might be overzealous, but don’t be shocked if TB12 ends up tossing three or even four touchdowns in this game. As out of sync as this offense looked a week ago, we’re expecting a full rebound and a lot of points. Knowing the Bridgewater and the Panthers offense is capable in their own right, there should be plenty of scoring to go around. Anything under the key number of 51 seems more than worthy of a play on the over.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 50.5
Buccaneers 33, Panthers 27
Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (6-2) vs. New England Patriots (3-5)
Sunday November 15th
8:20pm
NBC
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
Baltimore Ravens -7 (-115)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
Remember just 12 months ago when these two teams played in primetime and it was billed as a preview to the AFC Championship game? This matchup doesn’t quite have the same billing as the Patriots are still figuring out life “post-Brady”. The Ravens had a nice win a week ago against the Colts and hope to duplicate their sound beating of the Patriots they delivered a season ago.
The Baltimore Ravens haven’t been as electric offensively as they were when they took the league by storm in 2019. Don’t feel too much pity towards them though as they’re still very potent and present all sorts of headaches for defensive coordinators. That will be the challenge for the Belichick’s on Sunday as they look to slow down Lamar Jackson and company. The problem there is that it’s not just Tom Brady missing from this roster, it also has a lot of holes from their elite defense from last year. It was almost tough to watch Joe Flacco and the Jets having their way against this proud defense that was simply overmatched. Belichick said it best, in that they sold out to the salary cap and are paying the price now. The Ravens like to start with the running game and they may not even need to throw if they can control the line of scrimmage. A lack of talent at the linebacker positions will be exposed when Jackson takes off with his feet. Oh by the way, their best player Stephon Gilmore, is unlikely to play again this week. Belichick will come up with some sort of gameplan and probably try to shorten the game and make the Ravens have lengthy drives. Can they keep them out of the endzone?
It’s not just defensively where the Patriots are lacking as this offense is a far cry from some of the teams we’ve seen in New England over the past decade. With Julian Edelman on IR the wide receiver/cornerback matchups are Damiere Byrd and Jakobi Meyers versus Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters. That does not bode well for the passing game of Cam Newton and the Pats’. Even with the injury to Calais Campbell on the defensive line, the Ravens should still be able to hold down the running game of Newton and running back by committee. The Ravens even have a big advantage in the special teams matchup. Not even the great Bill Belichick is going to be able to plan his way to a win in a contest where they’re so overmatched in all phases.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Ravens are averaging 28 points per game this season
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 games with the Ravens/Pats
It would appear that recent history is really the only reason why this spread is set at -7 and not -10 or even higher. This is not the same as going into Foxboro last year and being favored at all. Add in the fact that the Ravens completely stomped New England last year and the case needs to be made for a double-digit expected win for Baltimore. This game shouldn’t be close, and could even get out of hand if things start going downhill for New England early.
BetCrushers Take: Baltimore Ravens -7
Ravens 27, Patriots 17
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
Los Angeles Chargers (2-6) vs. Miami Dolphins (5-3)
Sunday November 15th
4:05pm
CBS
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Miami Dolphins -1 (-110)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
The big three of rookie quarterbacks has been as impressive as any draft class at the position we’ve ever seen. Two of the three tangle on Sunday as Justin Herbert and Tua Tagavailoa meet each other for the first time in Miami. The Dolphins are winners of four in row and there’s a clear buzz around the team, while the Chargers have played well, but are still plagued with finding ways to lose football games.
At the start of the season most people felt the Chargers were a talented team that simply was going to lack great quarterback play. Justin Herbert has squashed that theory easily as he’s had great command of this offense and has been putting points up every week despite not having Austin Ekeler in the backfield. What’s even more impressive is that it’s been done with relatively average play from his offensive line. Herbert figured out early that he can rely on players like Keenan Allen and that quick throws are his friend. The Dolphins defense has been vastly improved with their notable free agent additions and slew of draft picks. The team looks as though it will be a little short-handed on Sunday however, Kyle Van Noy and Christian Wilkens are both on the COVID-19 list. These are two key cogs in their front seven and if they don’t play Herbert will have an easier go of things in the passing game.
The Chargers on the other hand hope to have Joey Bosa at full strength at defensive end. Tua Tagavailoa has played well in his first two starts, but this could be the first time he’s been under heavy duress if Bosa and Melvin Ingram can get after him. As is the case with their defense, the Dolphins will be a little short-handed offensively as well as Preston Williams was lost to injury a week after losing their leading rusher Myles Gaskin. Tua has done a nice job of managing the game and making plays where needed so far, but can he carry the load if he needs to? Maybe most importantly. can the Dolphins offensive line hold up against the front seven of the Chargers?
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in the last 5 Chargers games
– The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
If you’re picking this game against the spread, it seems like taking the Dolphins at home to win against a team that finds ways to lose is a no-brainer. It very well may be, but this Chargers team is also one of the most impressive 2-6 clubs you’ll ever see. That is if you believe there’s more to a record than just a record. We’re taking a separate approach to this one and looking at the Chargers team total. Since Herbert has been a starter the least they have scored in a game is an impressive 26 points. With a total under the key number of 24, (currently sitting at 23.5) we’re going to count on the Chargers getting enough on the scoreboard in Miami to put their total over.
BetCrushers Take: Los Angeles Chargers – Total Over 23.5
Chargers 31, Dolphins 28
Teaser Bet
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0)
Sunday November 15th
1:00pm
CBS
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens (6-2) vs. New England Patriots (3-5)
Sunday November 15th
8:20pm
NBC
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
Baltimore Ravens -7 (-115)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Pittsburgh -1.5 and Baltimore -1
Our favorite teasers generally involve teams getting below -3 and teams that have good quarterback play versus inferior opponents. That’s exactly what we have with this combo as we’re doubling down on the Ravens and adding in their AFC north foes to beat their rival Bengals at home.
You hopefully read our breakdown of the Ravens/Patriots above so we won’t re-hash that again here. All we’ll say is that we like the Ravens to cover -7, but we really really like them to cover -1. In the other leg of the teaser we’re locking in the Steelers to beat the Cincinnati Bengals and extend their franchise best start to a perfect 9-0. Historically these two teams have played tight games, and they very well may again this weekend. After all, the Steelers narrowly escaped with a win against the Garrett Gilbert led Dallas Cowboys. We toyed with the idea of taking the points with the Bengals, and still may. Really though, we just wanted to simplify this as easiest as we can. And that is, can the Cincinnati Bengals go into Heinz Field and upset the Steelers? Our belief is that’s asking just a little too much for a team that is overmatched in the trenches, playing in a divisional game.
