Previous Week Plays – 0-0
Season Record – 0-1
Never fun to lose the opener, especially when it’s by a point on the total, but we’ll enter the real regular season looking to quickly put the Thursday game in the rear view mirror. Week one has some fun games on the slate, a few we’re just watching and a couple we’re playing below. We’ve got a variety of bets involving totals, spreads, and first half bets. Five total bets in all that we’re excited to watch, and look forward to evaluating for the marathon that is the NFL season. Best of luck to everyone this year!
Week 1 Picks:
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-0)
Sunday September 8th
1:00pm
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Miami Dolphins -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 49.5 (-110)
Florida teams face off in an AFC clash between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the high-flying Miami Dolphins. Both teams had disappointing finishes to their 2023 campaigns, however each appear ready to make another run in the crowded conference. The Jaguars appear to have the talent on the offensive side of the ball, but need to show they can get consistent play from quarterback Trevor Lawrence. There aren’t too many questions for the offense in Miami, but the defense may be worth keeping an eye on early in the season.
This really is a make or break year for Trevor Lawrence as far as his career goes, as he was rewarded with a hefty bag of money for accomplishing not a ton thus far in his career. He’ll take the field behind the best offensive line he’s had, and plenty of talent at the skill positions. He’ll also do it against a Dolphins defense that looks like it may need some time to gel during the course of the season. Miami will start the season without Bradley Chubb, and with Jaelan Phillips likely to be limited for the first few weeks at minimum. The Dolphins did draft some edge players, including Chop Robinson, but it remains to be seen if their pass rush can get home early in the year? The Jags on the other hand will have Anton Harrison starting his second season, and Cam Robinson healthy to begin the year at the tackle positions. With a solid interior with the addition of Mitch Morse to pair next to guard Brandon Scherff, and this is a good group overall. The Dolphins defense was very up and down a year ago, but more down than up when you look at their week to week performances. They have some talented players, particularly at the cornerback position, so they’ll lean on newcomer Kendall Fuller and Jalen Ramsey to lock in on first round pick Brian Thomas, Jr. and Gabe Davis, as well as a banged up Christian Kirk. The Jags do have some speed on the roster, which could cause some trouble for some of the aging players on their defense. Calais Campbell has been a force in the league for so long, but how much can he have left in the tank? The same would be said about new safety Jordan Poyer. Ultimately, the Jags are going to have to be semi-aggressive against this Dolphins team, so the real question here is can Trevor Lawrence make the throws that are there to be had? That is something he has at times struggled with throughout his young career.
There are fewer question marks for the Dolphins when it comes to the offensive side of the ball, as they were one of the more consistently good groups during the 2023 season. With a full year under his belt healthy, Tua Tagovailoa should be poised for another strong campaign behind Mike McDaniel’s creative play-calling. The offensive line is still shaky at best, and they flat out need to be better. McDaniel does a nice job of covering up that deficiency with schemes, but for this team to truly be elite, they have to play more consistently. They’ll be tested against the pass rush of the Jaguars as Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker can provide pressure off the edge, and newcomer Arik Armstead will look to push the pocket. Can left tackle Terron Armstead be close the player he was during his prime? Of course the Dolphins plan will be to get the ball out of Tua’s hand early and often, and allow Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to do what they do on the outside. Miami is a little thin at receiver to start the year with OBJ and River Cracraft unavailable for this game, but Braxton Berrios is a player who could hear his name a little more, or possibly new tight end Johnnu Smith. The Jaguars secondary is relying on some older players, and that could be a problem against the speed of Miami. It often goes unnoticed to some extent, but when the Dolphins offense is really churning, it’s the running game that’s gashing big plays. How well the Jags can contain Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane could actually determine how well they can contain this offense.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Jaguars finished last season 1-6 ATS
– The Dolphins started last season 5-1 ATS
– The Dolphins are 16-4 straight up in their last 20 home games
We watched the Miami Dolphins dismantle teams early in the season and early in games a year ago. This was later widely recognized as an ability to beat teams that were of lesser stature and abilities. The Jaguars have some talent and aren’t a pushover for anyone, however they should be regarded as a team that is not as good as the Miami Dolphins. Mike McDaniel has whipped up some great first half game plans, particularly against defenses that aren’t all that dominant. Expect the ball to get out of Tua’s hands quickly to neutralize the edge rushers of the Jaguars. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, as well as their running game should find success against the rest of their defensive players. We went to this well often in 2023, and we’re going to it to start this season. Miami scores early and probably carries on to a win.
BetCrushers Take: Miami Dolphins – First Half Team Total – Over 13.5
Dolphins 34, Jaguars 27 (First Half – Dolphins 21, Jaguars 10)
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
vs.
Houston Texans (0-0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (0-0)
Sunday September 8th
1:00pm
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Houston Texans -3 (Even)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
An unfortunate injury took away one of the early matchups between quarterbacks C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson in their rookie campaigns a year ago. They’ll renew what could end up being a lengthy rivalry to open the season in Indianapolis as the Colts look to make a statement against one of the AFC favorites in the Texans. Houston will begin this season in a much different manner than they did in 2023 as they’ll have a target on their back in both the AFC South and the entire league. The Colts meanwhile, are excited to see Richardson return, and look to prove they’re capable of competing against the big dogs in the league.
The Houston Texans look flat out scary on offense when you look at their roster. They have speed, talent, depth and veteran leadership almost across the board. Their offensive line starts the year healthy, which was not the case a season ago, and quarterback C.J. Stroud now has an entire season behind him. Many are wondering if he’ll have a sophomore slump or elevate to being in the conversation for best quarterback in the league? We’ll find out eventually, but there is a very good chance he could look pretty good in week one against the Colts. Indianapolis has a very shaky secondary, and with the trio of Nico Collins, Tank Dell and newly acquired Stefon Diggs, there could some explosive plays and a lot of yards for Stroud in the opener. The Colts should be able to slow down new running back Joe Mixon, but in all reality, a defense would ideally want to put the ball in the running back’s hands against this Texans offense. Indy may also have some struggles this season rushing the passer, although they did draft DE Laiatu Latu with hopes of getting a boost there. Going up against left tackle Laremy Tunsil and Stroud is a tough assignment for your first task. If there’s anything really intriguing to watch with the Texans offense in this game, it’s to see how they’ll generally line up and share the snap count amongst their receivers. Will the aging Stefon Diggs be ok being a second or third option, or will the Texans try to force the ball to him, much like in Buffalo? You’d like to think bringing in a veteran WR would help the development of a young QB, but that’s not so certain in this case. As far as this matchup with the Colts though, it could be a nice start to the honeymoon between the receiver and Stroud.
Things will look a lot different for the Colts with the return of Anthony Richardson who begins the year healthy in his second go around. The Colts want to protect Richardson a little more, but it’s hard to stop athletic quarterbacks from being who they are, especially when they’re being effective. Protecting Richardson of course starts up front, and Indianapolis has a good offensive line, that is also very consistent as a unit. They rebounded well after a disappointing 2022 season, and if the Colts are going to make a splash, they’ll need another good year in 2024. Additionally, Jonathan Taylor being a Pro Bowl runner would be a big boost to this team, and Taylor is poised for what could be a big year. If there is a concern on this Texans defense, it might be their run defense. Although they were pretty stout a year ago and you know Demeco Ryans is passionate about stopping the run, this group could be a little soft up the middle. That’s where Taylor likes to do his work so this will be a key matchup in this game to keep an eye on. What really should be fun is to see if this Colts offense can evolve throwing the football. The team added Adonai Mitchell to help stretch the field a bit and will of course have reliable Michael Pittman, Jr. working the underneath stuff. The Texans secondary is pretty talented and deep though so it will be a tough test for this young Colts core. The player that could shine in this matchup is second year man Josh Downs, who will work primarily in the slot. The Texans line Myles Bryant up at the nickel corner, and they could see a lot of each other. That’s a matchup Downs can win, and will likely need to especially on short yardage situations. Ultimately, let’s watch the game plan for the Colts and see how much running Richardson will be doing.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Colts are 0-9-1 straight up in their last 10 week one contests
– The Colts finished last season 1-5 ATS in their final six games
– The Texans were 6-2 ATS in road games during the 2023 season
The public pushed this line up for the Texans as the hype of this Houston roster is real amongst fans. The thing is, every once in a while the public is right and they win. Anthony Richardson may give Houston some trouble with his legs in this game. Let’s rephrase, he will give them some trouble. And that’s not even mentioning Jonathan Taylor has owned the Texans during his career. Let’s also add this is a division game with a team laying points on the road. That adds up to the squarest of square bets if you’re going to take the Texans. Go ahead and call us square because we’re still taking the road team with all the hype here. This comes down to the fact that these teams are on two different tiers in the league. Houston is a top ten team, probably closer to top five, and the Colts are a bottom ten team. Hopefully you locked this in before it was at the key number of three, but we’ll still publish this one at the current price of minus three around even money with the favorite.
BetCrushers Take: Houston Texans -3
Texans 30, Colts 24
Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (0-0) vs. Chicago Bears (0-0)
Sunday September 8th
1:00pm
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Chicago Bears -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
A game that is flying under the radar just a bit in week one is the Tennessee Titans at the Chicago Bears. Sure, we will get some highlights of first overall pick Caleb Williams for the Bears, but these are two teams that could be sneakily good this season. Will Levis gets his shot as a franchise quarterback with some new weapons around him, while the Bears have assembled one of the more talented rosters in the league over the past couple of seasons. The winner of this interconference battle could be headed for good things during the 2024 season as this game means a lot psychologically as well as in the standings.
You could make the argument that no one was thrown into a tougher situation last year than Titans then rookie QB Will Levis. He took the helm for a team with a horrendous offensive line, questionable offensive play-calling, and really just one capable wideout to throw to. Fast forward to this season and Levis has what should be a much improved line, and some nice weapons to throw the football to. Of course, what he won’t have is franchise running back Derrick Henry, who will be replaced by Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. The Bears should be good against the run, but they’ll be better against the pass. That means Pollard and Spears are going to have to step up right away for the Titans offense if they want to pull an upset in week one. When Tennessee is throwing, we’ll get a first hand look at first round pick, left tackle JC Latham. He’ll get a heavy dose of Montez Sweat and DeMarcus Walker, so welcome to the NFL rookie. Where the Titans are most improved, is at the skill positions, where the additions of Calvin Ridley and veteran Tyler Boyd, give them some alternative options beyond DeAndre Hopkins. That’s a good thing, as Hopkins begins the season banged up, and actually questionable for this contest. We’d expect to see a lot of Bears corner Jaylon Johnson on Calvin Ridley, so Tyler Boyd could be a targeted man in his debut with his new team. Another player who the Titans want to involve more than a year ago is tight end Chig Okonkwo. He could test his former teammate Kevin Byard in the middle of the field. Really though, this comes down to seeing how effective Will Levis can be as a starting quarterback in this league. The Bears defense will offer a pretty tough early test, so a good game for Levis could just be taking care of the football, and knowing when it’s ok to punt.
People will be tuning in to see how Will Levis does in the opener, but it’s going to be all about first overall pick Caleb Williams when it comes to this game. The exciting QB is poised and pressured to end a serious drought of quarterback ineffectiveness in the Windy City and much like Levis, he’ll have a tough task in week one. The Titans beefed up their defense by adding Pro Bowl cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie, and they’ll need all the secondary help they can get against a Bears offense that now boasts Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore and rookie Rome Odunze. And oh by the way, adding Gerald Everett with Cole Kmet makes this offense tough to scheme against. Things could fall to Caleb Williams early to prove his ability as a thrower and scrambler as the Titans run defense should be really stout this season by placing T’Vondre Sweat next to Jeffery Simmons in the trenches. Chicago could use new weapon D’Andre Swift out of the backfield as a receiver if they can’t establish a good running game. Let’s be honest though, this season and game are going to come and go with how well Caleb Williams plays. Can he be that franchise quarterback the team so desperately needs? We’ll get our first glimpse on Sunday.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has stayed under in 14 of the last 19 games for the Titans
– The total for the Bears stayed under in 7 of their last 9 games
– The Bears are 5-0 straight up in their last 5 home games
The more we look at the Tennessee Titans roster, the more this team looks like it could be competitive under a new regime. Of course this is mostly predicated on whether or not Will Levis can take that leap needed to lead this team. If you’re worried about the question mark there, you should also be wondering about how Caleb Williams will do in his debut? Williams will make some splash plays, but can he actually carve up a defense with some really good talent like the Titans? We’re banking on a no to answer that question. Two quality defenses, with two inexperienced quarterbacks, we’re looking at an under and an underdog cover in this one.
BetCrushers Take: Tennessee Titans +4 / Under 45
Bears 23, Titans 20
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers
vs. 
Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (0-0)
Sunday September 8th
4:05pm
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 41.5 (-110)
The Los Angeles Chargers went all in to snag new head coach Jim Harbaugh and will watch him debut against the Las Vegas Raiders in week number one. The Chargers are in a little bit of a rebuilding mode, yet still boast some All-Pro talent on the roster, and will look to quarterback Justin Herbert to lead them forward. The Raiders decided on eclectic, and underrated QB Gardner Minshew to be their starter to open the season, as he handily beat out Aiden O’ Connell at the position. Both teams appear to be playing for second place in a division that features the Kansas City Chiefs, but don’t tell either of these head coaches that.
The Las Vegas Raiders will be handing the quarterback job to Gardner Minshew, after winning a competition in the preseason to face the Chargers in Los Angeles on Sunday. The Raiders offense and Minshew looked good in the preseason, and will take on a Chargers defense that figures to be pretty good in 2024. An area the Chargers need to clean up is their run defense, which has been a thorn in their side the past few seasons. Unfortunately, it’s tough to see how much better they can be with a questionable interior of their defensive line, and linebackers who are more speedy than they are aggressive. The Raiders will look to capitalize on this with new starter Zamir White and freshly acquired Alexander Mattison. The offensive line for Vegas is not highly regarded, however this unit could absolutely be better than many are expecting it to be. They’ll have their hands full on the edges with a healthy Joey Bosa, and former Raider Khalil Mack, who still hasn’t show much sign of decline at this stage of his playing career. First round tight end Brock Bowers missed much of the preseason, but you can figure the Raiders will try to work him in the game plan in some form or fashion. Where the Raiders really could expose the Chargers is in three wide receiver sets, if Davante Adams is healthy. The star wideout is 31 years old and missed all of the preseason as well. If he’s on the field, he’ll make some plays, and he’s needed to open things up for Jakobi Meyers and the explosive Tre Tucker. Minshew had a lot of rapport with Tucker this offseason, so don’t be surprised if they try to hit some plays deep with the speedster.
Justin Herbert is back and assuredly ready to rejoin the conversation of top quarterbacks in the league. If he can lead this offense to be one of the leaders in the league, he will have certainly done that as this team is void of some talent at the skill positions. The good news is, his offensive line is solid, and should at least be good at the tackle positions, which is a good thing when you’re facing Maxx Crosby. This will be a tough task for the interior though going up against free agent Christian Wilkins, who was brought in for games just like this. The Chargers have moved on from Austin Ekeler and will now go with a pair of former Ravens running backs in Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. Edwards is basically a journeyman runner, and while successful in Baltimore, it’s tough to imagine him having similar production in this offense. Dobbins was an explosive player coming out of college, but after two major knee surgeries, it’s fair to question whether or not that explosiveness is there, or ever will be again? Assuming the Raiders can at least keep the Chargers running game from going to wild, that puts the ball back in Herbert’s hand, which is where you want it if you’re a Chargers fan. One has to wonder though if there is enough talent even with Herbert to put up points consistently? Gone is old reliable Keenan Allen, and enter rookie Ladd McConkey. He’s drawn obvious comparisons to Cooper Kupp, but can he have an immediate impact on this offense? Joshua Palmer is a capable receiver, if not spectacular, but Quentin Johnston is looking more and more like a complete bust from last year’s draft. Gerald Everett is no longer here as a tight end either. Add this up against what is an underrated Raiders secondary and the offense could struggle a bit for the Chargers in this game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Raiders finished the 2023 season 5-0-1 ATS
– The Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. an AFC West opponent
– The Chargers were 2-6 straight up in home games during the 2023 season
– The Chargers were 1-5 ATS vs. AFC West opponents during the 2023 season
The BetCrushers are going to look back on this season and either look really wise, or really foolish in terms of the AFC West. We’re really high on the Raiders in 2024, and looking to fade the Los Angeles Chargers. What better opportunity to do that than in a head-to-head matchup to start the season? The Raiders match up well against this Chargers team, and since one Harbaugh lost this weekend, why not make it two? The Chargers have most likely the least homefield advantage in the entire league as SoFi Stadium will undoubtedly boast more Raider Nation fans than Charger fans for this contest. This is an absolute game where you could sprinkle a little moneyline if youd’ like, as we like the Raiders to win outright. We’ll take the points here, getting the key number.
BetCrushers Take: Las Vegas Raiders +3
Raiders 24, Chargers 20
