Previous Week Plays – 0-0
Season Record – 0-0
Last NFL season took the BetCrushers literally the duration to find our way to the tiniest of profits. While it wasn’t our most profitable year by a long shot, the important thing is despite the very mediocre results, we finished on the correct side of the red and black line. We’ve spent countless hours during the offseason preparing for the grind that is handicapping and wagering on the National Football League. If it sounds like a lot of work, it is, but make no mistake about it, we love every minute of it. If you haven’t had a chance to check out our divisional previews, you can get an idea of our team rankings and some bets we’ve already got in play. Remember, as always, pace yourself as there are more than enough ample opportunities to place wagers. And if you happened to notice BetCrusher Allison and our new cover image, let’s make it perfectly clear… Despite our new graphic, there is no such thing as a “lock” in sports betting, so play responsibly!
Week 1 Picks:
Our season technically started with a whiff on our plays as we teased Kansas City in the opener. No complaints, as we had booked that before the Travis Kelce news and can accept that result. We’re going pretty light with all of our wagers to start the season, but we do have a few plays we feel good about after a lot of analysis. No traditional bets against the spread, just a teaser and a couple of game totals.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
vs. 
Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) vs. Cleveland Browns (0-0)
Sunday September 10th
1:00pm
Cleveland Browns Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
Things are going to be a dogfight in the AFC North all season, so they might as well start with a showdown in the Dawg Pound of Cleveland Browns stadium. The Bengals head up Interstate 71 with their eyes set on getting a jump on defending their division title from a season ago against a once again optimistic team in Cleveland. Joe Burrow appears as though he’ll play after the scary preseason injury he suffered in camp, and Deshaun Watson is out to recapture some of the glory he had in his early days with the Texans.
We don’t need to go into a lot of detail on the importance of Joe Burrow for the offense of the Bengals, as this team drops substantially if Jake Browning has to play. Fortunately, Burrow looks ready to go for the opener, and hoping to put up a better performance than he and the Bengals offense did a year ago in Cleveland. There is a ton of firepower on the Cincinnati offense as we know with their trio of receivers, and running back Joe Mixon. The matchups we’re really keying in on Sunday actually feature the Bengals beefed up offensive line, versus the revamped defensive line of the Browns. One of the potentially best moves of the offseason involved Cleveland bringing in Za’Darius Smith to give Myles Garrett some actual support with the pass rush. How will the Bengals offensive line, and particularly the tackles hold up with what will be an all-day assignment against these proven rushers? Jonah Williams will be starting for the first time at the right tackle position, and Orlando Brown, Jr. is making his debut for Cincinnati on the left side. This may be where the game is won or lost despite the talented names we know on these rosters. It’s also worth pointing out, Cleveland also looks to have bolstered their secondary, so they have some players to at least contain Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and team.
On offense, we pretty much also know what to expect with what the Browns will look to do, and that’s feed running back Nick Chubb. The eyes will be on the Bengals offensive line, however it’s the Browns offensive line that is the proven unit. All five starters are good, and they added possibly the top offensive steal in the draft with Dawand Jones, who has looked dominant in preseason play. It is going to be a true punch-fest in the trenches as D.J. Reader and B.J. Hill will look to hold their ground and allow the Bengals athletic linebackers to keep Chubb contained. Generally speaking, the Browns offenses goes as Nick Chubb goes. There is extra excitement this year as Cleveland believes they have their most talented group of skill position players in quite some time, hoping Elijah Moore and play wingman to Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. They also boast one of the most athletic tight ends in the league in David Njoku, who finally appears to be positioned for heavy playing time, after a lot of workload share. If there’s a question on the Bengals defense, it has to be a mostly new secondary unit. This group has the potential to be good, but at this point we simply cannot say if that will be the case or not. Veteran safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell are gone, and that can’t be understated against a savvy route-runner like Amari Cooper. And that’s if cornerback Chidobe Awuzie is back healthy from major knee surgery, and Cam Taylor-Britt can step in as an every down player. All of that leads us to Deshaun Watson, who flat out hasn’t looked great since his whole ordeal back in Houston. As much as this team can lean on Nick Chubb, they absolutely need some production from Watson to keep up in this game and during the season.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bengals are 13-4 against the spread in their last 17 games vs. the Browns
– The Bengals are 0-5 straight up in their last 5 games at Cleveland
– The Bengals last 5 openers have all stayed under the total
– The total stayed under in 6 of the final 7 games for the Browns in 2022
The Cincinnati Bengals are going to win quite a few games this year, and for our money will repeat in the toughest division in the league. However, they could put themselves in an early deficit as this is a really tough opener for them. They’ve struggled mightily in Cleveland in recent years, and Joe Burrow is human, and needs at least a little action to knock some rust off. The Bengals defense should be able to at least keep reasonable tabs on Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson hasn’t proven yet that he’s going to light up the scoreboard through the air. We’re expecting a pretty close game here, and you could even consider a Browns moneyline wager as this game is essentially a coin flip in our analysis. Instead, we’re opting to play the total, and taking an under in a game that has several Pro Bowl players on the offensive side of the ball.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Under 47.5
Browns 23, Bengals 21
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
vs. 
Green Bay Packers (0-0) vs. Chicago Bears (0-0)
Sunday September 10th
4:25pm
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Chicago Bears -1 (-110)
Over/Under 42 (-110)
Of the many intriguing games of the opening weekend, the Packers and Bears renew the league’s oldest rivalry in what will draw a lot of interest around the NFC. Both teams are approaching the season with high expectations, and while each have reason to be hopeful, it remains to be seen just how good they’ll be in 2023. Bears quarterback Justin Fields enters the year as an MVP candidate, and in a matchup against Jordan Love, we may learn quickly how much the Packers may or may not miss Aaron Rodgers.
The people of Wisconsin will be glued to the TV on Sunday hopefully to gain confirmation of Jordan Love being a franchise quarterback. No one should overreact after just one game, but let’s not kid ourselves, Love can write his own narrative depending upon how well, or poorly he performs against the rival Bears. There are quite a few things working in his favor to help him in this important start to what he hopes is a lengthy run as the team leader. For starters, the Bears defense was statistically the worst in the league a season ago. That’s not to say they won’t be better this year, because they absolutely will. Adding Yannick Ngakoue to bolster the pass rush and the athletic Tremaine Edmunds to anchor the middle of the defense were massive upgrades. However, this may not be fastest start to a season for the Chicago defense as they’ll need some time to play together, and this isn’t necessarily the best matchup for them. Green Bay offers up a top ten offensive line that should be able to keep the Bears defense on their heels a bit, and with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon they should have a pretty good rushing attack. These are obviously very good things for a young quarterback. Additionally, the Packers top wideouts Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs each have a year of experience under their belt, and both showed flashes of being excellent players in the league. And of course, we have to mention the fact of Love looking unstoppable during the preseason. We’re not going to get too excited about that, but it’s certainly better to go into a season with that feeling, rather than one of uncertainty. Assuming Green Bay can run the ball a bit, it’s really going to come down to the ability of the Packers skill position players to create some wins against a potentially strong secondary. Although they’re not a deep group, the starting four would appear to have a little bit of an edge, at least on paper, and at home.
All aboard the Justin Fields hype train as it leaves the station ready to rock in week number one. Perhaps no quarterback in the league is more polarizing heading into the season, as “expert” rankings have him anywhere from the top QB in the NFC to 8th or 9th best. Fields also has some things working in his favor in the opener, mainly the fact he finally has some help around him. While still not great, his offensive line is the best it’s been since his arrival, so his development as a pocket passer at least has that going for him. The running game should be decent behind Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman, even if neither offer potential explosiveness at the position. It’s the receivers that have the chance for the biggest improvement as the addition of D.J. Moore gives the Bears a legitimate number one receiver, something they seemingly haven’t had in a while. That also allows Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool to be a little more under the radar and potentially with a little lighter coverage, which should only help them. Robert Tonyan joins Cole Kmet at tight end which gives them the ability to run two TE sets with two capable pass catchers. The defense for Green Bay seems to be kind of middle of the pack-ish, no pun intended when you look at all three levels. The defensive line is not great, although Kenny Clark gives them some stability and experience, and has had some nice games versus the Bears in his career. The linebackers are going to be key in containing Justin Fields, and how disciplined they can be will play a big part in limiting explosive plays. We’ll also get a look at Rashan Gary, who is returning from knee surgery, and will need some agility in this matchup. The Packers will be without Eric Stokes in the secondary as he’s on the PUP list to start the season. Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas can hold up at the corner spots, but where Chicago can take advantage is over the middle of the field. The threat to run from Fields, and a shaky Darnell Savage and Rudy Ford on the back, could struggle with the previously mentioned tight ends of the Bears.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Packers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. the Bears
– The total for the Bears went over in 8 of their last 11 games in 2022
– The Bears were 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games of 2022
The winner of this rivalry game could end up being in a hugely advantageous spot by the time the final weeks of the season roll around. That is of course if these young quarterbacks can pilot their respective teams to success throughout the year. It’s not just Aaron Rodgers who has owned the Bears, it’s the collective Green Bay Packers. Until proven otherwise, they still have the edge on the Bears, even though they’re anything but a lock to win this one, as evidenced by being slight underdogs. What doesn’t make sense here is the total being so low as we have this game in the 48-53 range based on these defenses, and the advantages of the offenses. You’ll never get rich betting a lot of overs in the NFL, but this one is simply too far off for us not to take a shot with.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 42
Packers 28, Bears 24
Teaser Bet
Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Commanders
Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Arizona Cardinals (0-0) vs. Washington Commanders (0-0)
Sunday September 10th
1:00pm
FedEx Field – Landover, MD
Arizona Cardinals -7 (-110)
Over/Under 38 (-110)
Tennessee Titans (0-0) vs. New Orleans Saints (0-0)
Sunday September 10th
1:00pm
Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, LA
New Orleans -3 (-110)
Over/Under 41.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Commanders -1 and Titans +9
At the conclusion of the 2022 season we probably wouldn’t have believed anyone had they told us we’d be teasing the Tennessee Titans and Washington Commanders in week one of 2023. Yet, here we are looking to back the Titans on the road in the Superdome taking on the Saints, and backing young Sam Howell as the new signal-caller for the Commanders against the woeful Arizona Cardinals. This is not the most conventional teaser, as the numbers don’t really even support teasing Tennessee, but our percentages of this hitting are simply high enough to override the juice of the bet.
Let’s make this breakdown of the Commanders and Cardinals game about as simple as we possibly can. We’re on the #FadeTheCardinals bandwagon until they prove throughout the season they can make us regret it. The Commanders enter the season as a team that may not make the playoffs in a tough NFC East, but absolutely have some nice pieces on their roster. The big question is of course at the quarterback position, where Sam Howell needs to play well for them to win. He’s looked good in a small and mostly meaningless sample size, but much like Jordan Love, that’s not the worst way to enter the season. Washington doesn’t have a great offensive line, however against Arizona it simply may not matter. Unless Zaven Collins can take a massive leap, it’s hard to see a great pass rush coming from the Cardinals front. With time to throw Howell can take aim against one of the weaker cornerback rooms in the entire league. Terry McLaurin, who looks as though he’ll play with a turf toe, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel and tight end Logan Thomas could all feast against a secondary that simply doesn’t offer much outside of Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker. We’re a little higher on the Cardinals offense simply because they do have some proven players at the skill positions. The problem though, is the offensive line still isn’t great, although they at least attempted to beef it up, and Joshua Dobbs is going to be the starting QB. Yes, the Josh Dobbs journeyman who just arrived in Arizona two weeks ago. The Commanders defense is no joke, and with the addition of rookie cornerback Emmanuel Forbes, there really isn’t a lot of weakness to be found. If the defensive line of Washington can overpower the Cardinals front, which we expect to happen, Dobbs could be in for a long day.
The Titans and Saints won’t be the most watched game of the weekend, but it surprisingly could be one of the more entertaining contests on Sunday. Tennessee enters the game offensively with some good, and some combination of bad or ugly. The good is veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill is healthy, and it seems like when he’s on the field he simply finds ways to keep the team competitive and winning. Additionally, Derrick Henry begins the season healthy, and Tyjae Spears looks dynamic in spelling him at running back. Most importantly, the addition of DeAndre Hopkins should help Treylon Burks and Nick Wetbrook-Ikhine. The bad/ugly is kind of important, and that is the fact they may be putting out the worst offensive line in the entire league. The left side of the line might, and we stress might be serviceable if rookie Peter Skoronski can ball out, and Andre Dillard can become consistent. The other side of the line, all we can say is yikes. A couple of years ago, the Saints defensive front would have had a field day against this bunch, however this is simply not the dominant defensive line we’ve gotten used to seeing in New Orleans. If Henry can give the Titans a little bit and keep the defense honest, Tannehill has enough experience to be effective. One thing to watch in this game and this season is if Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore can return to Pro Bowl form after lingering injuries. On offense, the Saints should be well positioned to be more explosive this season. The offensive line begins the year healthy, and Derek Carr is an upgrade of some sort compared to Andy Dalton. Without Alvin Kamara to start the season, it’ll be interesting to see if the Saints are as creative on offense, or if we might see more of Taysom Hill? No matter who is running, they’ll find yards tough to come by against Jeffery Simmons and the front of the Titans. Where the Saints should find success is through the air as the Titans were one of the worst teams against the pass a season ago. The secondary is improved, and they should be able to matchup fairly well against the Saints receivers, although that becomes very tough without a strong pass rush. It’s hard to see where that rush is going to come from Tennessee, even if linebacker Harold Landry III can get back on the field.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cardinals were 0-7 straight up to finish 2022
– The Cardinals are 0-8 straight up in their last 8 games vs. Commanders
– The Commanders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 openers
– The Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. AFC
Normally it’s not the best idea in the world to tease a road team as it doesn’t fit the optimal formula for percentage winning. Not that we ever advise being reckless with wagers, but it’s week one of a very long season so we’re going to go against that trend to start the season off. The first leg of the teaser is essentially playing one of this week’s favorite “survivor” plays as we essentially just need the Commanders to come away with a home win. We feel good betting against this Arizona squad until they make us pay for it. Hopefully that won’t be in week one. Really it just seems like Joshua Dobbs is not going to be set up to do real well against the Washington defense. In the second leg, we’re banking on Mike Vrabel and Ryan Tannehill being able to stay competitive against the Saints. Getting a field goal, it’s not a horrible play at all to bet the Titans getting the points, but keeping the game within one score seems very likely here. We’re crossing our fingers and hoping that Titan offensive line can keep Tannehill upright, and the Tennessee defense can make the Saints one dimensional.
