THANKSGIVING BREAKDOWN:

For NFL fans Thanksgiving day is one of the best days of the year as we have a full day of games, either in the forefront or in the background with turkey, drinks, naps and we hope no work. There are no shortage of opportunities to add a sweat or two of betting on the slate of three games throughout the day and evening. As usual we have the Lions and Cowboys playing hosts, while the 49ers and Seahawks do battle on Thursday night. We’ve got a quick breakdown of all three contests along with some official bets we’ve wagered on and will be tracking, as well as a couple of other ideas or leans to see what direction we’re looking. For the record, a listed “BetCrushers Take” is an official play we’re betting. Enjoy the games, bet responsibly, and remember to save some bankroll for Sunday as well!

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

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Green Bay Packers (4-6) at Detroit Lions (8-2)
Thursday November 23rd
12:30pm
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Detroit Lions -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47 (-110)

Thanksgiving Day football kicks off with an NFC North battle between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions at Ford Field.  Those who casually have the game on in the background might not realize the Lions are now heavy favorites against a team that has consistently owned them for the better part of two decades.  Jordan Love is coming off of one of his best performances and Jared Goff is fresh off of one of his worst.  Quarterback play is always important, but it’s the running backs that could make the difference in this contest.

The Packers organization had to breathe a little sigh of relief with the strong outing from Jordan Love a week ago, but it’s important to point out that was against a Chargers defense that has largely been swiss cheese this season.  The Lions aren’t an elite defensive unit, but they’ll certainly prove to be a tougher obstacle, especially at home on Thanksgiving.  The Lions run defense has been solid all year, and they likely won’t have to worry about Aaron Jones, who hasn’t been able to shake the injury bug this season.  A.J. Dillon can be a capable runner against softer rush defenses, but against big bodies like Alim McNeill and Benito Jones and aggressive linebackers, he often can’t get going.  That puts a lot of pressure on Jordan Love and his young receivers to make big plays.  The Packers offense essentially relies on big plays, so keeping things in front of them will be key for Detroit.  After a slow stretch over the past four weeks, Aiden Hutchinson looked strong again last week which is a good sign for the pass rush of the Lions.  As long as their defense isn’t put into difficult spots like they were a week ago, the Packers could be punting the ball a lot in this game.

Because Lions quarterback Jared Goff has been so steady leading their offense, we’re going to chalk up last week’s turnovers and inefficiencies as an anomaly, and not a pattern to be concerned with.  The reality of this game is Goff will not be asked to do a whole lot, and really does just need to take care of the football.  This is shaping up to be a dream come true matchup for head coach Dan Campbell as his squad could end up running the ball 35 times against this Packers defense.  Green Bay continues to linger towards the bottom of the pack with their run defense, and they particularly struggle against power running teams.  Enter David Montgomery and this Lions offensive line.  We watched them run right over a similarly constructed defense in the Chargers two weeks ago, and this should be a similar repeat performance.  The Lions entire offense is predicated on being able to run the ball, which is largely why they had some struggles against the Bears.  With Montgomery and Gibbs keeping the chains moving, Goff should look a lot better when he does throw off of play action or on third downs.  The thin secondary of the Packers will struggle with Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta should also bounce back after his quietest game of the year.  The Packers only chance defensively is to take some chances with both run and pass blitzes or else they’ll bleed a slow death.  Realistically speaking, this isn’t the type of defense that takes too many chances, so that grind it out approach seems unavoidable. 

Of all of the Thanksgiving day matchups, it’s crazy to say the Lions seem like the best bet overall, a possible sign of the apocalypse.  All jokes aside, the Lions have proved to football followers they’re no longer a grocery bag franchise.  This is where they announce to the casual observer they are a legit contender across the league.  The Packers are not going to have an answer for the running attack of the Lions.  There are multiple opportunities to use the Lions this week, including with some player props.  We’re going to go with the obvious teaser leg, and will actually be teasing them twice.  Once on Thanksgiving, but also once paired with a Sunday play.  We’re also going to play the first half spread of -4.  The Packers have been one of the slowest starting teams in the league, and that home crowd at Ford Field is going to be amped up to start the game.  The Lions should cover this game ATS, but this also protects a bit against the backdoor cover, as the Packers have actually been one of the best second half teams in the league.

BetCrushers Take: Detroit Lions – First Half -4 (-110)
David Montgomery – Over 65.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

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Washington Commanders (4-7) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Thursday November 23rd
4:30pm
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Dallas Cowboys -11 (-105)
Over/Under 49 (-110)

The Dallas Cowboys host their annual Thanksgiving game day and will square off against their divisional rival Washington Commanders.  Dallas will bring a potent offense and defense into the contest, while the Commanders look for some consistency on both sides of the ball.  Washington has been up and down this season, could they find a way to pull off an upset as double-digit underdogs?

The Commanders offense handed the Giants a victory on a silver platter by turning the ball over repeatedly, and now they have to face the Cowboys defense on Turkey Day.  If you want to hold out some hope for Washington, you can point to their sporadic times of offensive dominance throughout the course of the season.  If you want to be realistic, we could see a repeat of what we saw a week ago.  It all starts up front with the Commanders offensive line, a unit that wasn’t expected to be great this season, and has underperformed to those expectations.  Part of their struggles are from quarterback Sam Howell holding the football when passing, but it’s more on the offensive line, than the young QB.  Facing the Dallas defense on a nationally televised game could turn things ugly fast.  For starters, the Commanders running game is very average.  They do commit to the run, and do move forward, albeit it slightly.  That’s not going to be enough in a game where they need to control the time of possession and the line of scrimmage.  With their offensive line issues, this Dallas defense is going to get after Sam Howell.  Dallas is second in the league in generating quarterback pressures, and that could lead to some big mistakes for Washington and Howell.  Somehow, the Commanders need to find an early lead so the Dallas defense can’t simply pin their ears back and go straight for the kill shot with their pass rush.

Offensively the Dallas Cowboys are rolling along as well as they ever have.  That should continue against this Washington team that sold at the deadline, offloading their talented edge rushers and weakening a defense that was already not playing great.  The Commanders defense is still decent as a whole, but this is going to be a tough assignment for them.  Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are dialed in right now, and there is little proof they won’t shine again on the national stage.  What’s encouraging for Dallas is the appearance of Brandin Cooks as an additional weapon in this offense.  He could be in line for a nice day as the Commanders have struggled with defending secondary receivers and giving up big plays.  If there is a nit-picky concern for the Cowboys, it has to be the inability to get Tony Pollard dominating in the running game.  The Commanders are giving up 4 and a half yards per carry so maybe this is the week Pollard gets going?  It feels like we’ve been waiting for that for several weeks from the Cowboys running back.  Washington is still pretty big and physical with Jonathan Allen and DaRon Payne on the interior, but there’s really no reason Dallas shouldn’t be able to run outside of the tackles on this defense.

Can the Commanders keep this game in reach with a good showing from their defense and a strong performance from quarterback Sam Howell?  The answer to that question is yes.  Will they though?  The clarity on that is a lot muddier.  There’s a reason this is a double-digit spread, and it’s because this game could get way out of hand.  The other question that’s fair to ask is, can we trust this Cowboys team?  If you remember, they lost as huge favorites to the Arizona Cardinals earlier this season.  The big difference here is they are at home, where they have been much more consistent and better.  There are a couple of angles here to look at as well.  Their first half line is -7, which also seems like a solid play.  Additionally, there is a nice prop bet regarding their sack total of over 3.5.  They average 3 sacks per game, but at home against this Washington offensive line, the odds of them grabbing four or more seem very high, especially with juice of only -115.  If this game were being played in Washington, we’d be a lot more hesitant to go all in with the favorite, but in the comfort of JerryWorld we’ll go ahead and back Dallas here.

BetCrushers Take: Dallas Cowboys -7 (First Half) (-110)
Dallas Cowboys – Over 3.5 Sacks (-115)

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

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San Francisco 49ers (7-3) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
Thursday November 23rd
8:20pm
Lumen Field – Seattle, WA
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 (-115)
Over/Under 43 (-110)

The Seattle Seahawks return home to take on the San Francisco 49ers in what could be their last stand if they want a shot at the NFC West crown.  Although the teams are only separated by one game in the standings, this has the feel of two teams potentially headed in different directions.  The 12th man will be rocking in Seattle, but that may not be enough to slow down this juggernaut 49ers team.

Another week and another masterclass from Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers offense as he created some brilliant plays that had the opposing defense clueless.  They’ll need to be on their game against a Seahawks defense that has been pretty tough when playing at home in Lumen Field.  The Hawks know the 49ers as well as any team, so as much as the 49er want to X and O them, this game will largely come down to who executes better, and or is more talented.  San Francisco is certainly not lacking for talent on offense, and instead of starting with Christian McCaffrey, we’re going to focus on quarterback Brock Purdy.  Outside of their matchup in Cleveland, this is his toughest test so far, and he needs to do what he normally does, which is take care of the football first and foremost.  The Seahawks path to victory is to win the turnover battle and keep the game close into the 4th quarter.  Seattle brought in some extra help on their defensive line for games just like this as their ability to keep their linebackers clean, and get a pass rush are paramount.  As great as the 49ers offense is, their line is still very mediocre, outside of Trent Williams.  Getting back to Christian McCaffrey, it’s impossible to completely stop him as he’s just on another level, but he can be contained.  If the Seahawks can get some pressure on both run downs and pass plays, we could see them frustrate this Niners offense more than we’ve witnessed up to this point.  In easier terms, there could be some similarities to what we saw when San Francisco faced Cleveland.  Of course there are two big differences to that.  First, the Niners enter this game with their full roster of talent on offense, and second, the Seahawks defense is not quite as imposing as the Browns.  If the Hawks can limit McCaffrey, can they take away the other weapons on the 49ers offense and hold this team to 20 points?

If the Seahawks can find a way to hold things down defensively, they’re still going to need to score some points of their own to win the game.  It appears like Geno Smith is going to be ready to play, but will he be limited at all, or could we see Drew Lock?  No one is expecting Geno to light up this San Francisco defense, but he can and does need to be efficient when Seattle has the ball.  He’ll already be a little behind the eight ball, as it looks like Kenneth Walker III will not be able to play after sustaining an oblique injury on Sunday.  Many were surprised when Seattle drafted running back Zach Charbonnet early, yet he could have his shot to make that pick look great if he can step up in Walker’s absence.  The 49ers are good against the run, yet we know Pete Carroll wants to stay committed to it, so we’re going to see some physical football on this side of the ball as well.  Where the Seahawks really have a chance is generating explosive plays in the passing game, something the Niners have had their issues stopping.  D.K. Metcalf will probably see a lot of Charvarius Ward, which means Tyler Lockett and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba are key players in this game.  Of course, all of these opportunities will be determined by how well the Seahawks can block the defensive line of the 49ers.  There are so many subplot mini-matchups to keep an eye on this game if you’re a pure football fan.

The NFL would certainly like it if not every game of the Thanksgiving slate were a blowout, and while anything can happen in the first two, they might be relying on the Seahawks to keep that dream alive.  Even though the 49ers are arguably the best team playing on Thanksgiving, they will very likely be in the biggest dogfight of the day.  This certainly seems like a spot to back the home team, but we simply don’t want to get in the way of the 49ers when they’re at full strength.  Instead, we’ll round out a teaser bet with them as we suspect they’ll find a way to get the win.  We’re also going to continue to play their team total, as anything under 28 seems like an auto-play at this point in time.  This spread is definitely worth keeping an eye on as well as we could see movement in one direction or another.  If you want to follow the sharp money, watch the spread and be ready to pounce the Seahawks.  If you want to continue to cash with the 49ers, follow us and keep those fingers crossed.

BetCrushers Take: – Total – Over 43 (-110)

Normally we throw together a Thanksgiving parlay or teaser more for some fun than anything, because hey, what better do we have to be American and thankful for than that?  This year is a little different as some of our favorite plays of the weekend are just so happening to be a part of these games.  Here is what we’re officially playing:

BetCrushers Take:
6 pt. Teaser Bet – Detroit Lions -1.5 and San Francisco 49ers -.5 (-120)
3 Team Moneyline Parlay – Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers (+102)
6 pt. Teaser Bet – Detroit Lions -1.5 and Cleveland Browns +8.5 (-120)

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, enjoy the day!