THANKSGIVING BREAKDOWN:
For NFL fans Thanksgiving day is one of the best days of the year as we have a full day of games, either in the forefront or in the background with turkey, drinks, naps and we hope no work. There are no shortage of opportunities to add a sweat or two of betting on the slate of three games throughout the day and evening. As usual we have the Lions and Cowboys playing hosts, while the Vikings will square off with the Patriots on Thursday night. We’ve got a quick breakdown of all three contests along with some official bets we’ve wagered on and will be tracking, as well as a couple of other ideas or leans to see what direction we’re looking. For the record, a listed “BetCrushers Take” is an official play we’re betting. A “Lean” will not be tracked win or loss. Enjoy the games, bet responsibly, and remember to save some bankroll for Sunday as well!
Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Detroit Lions (4-6)
Thursday November 24th
12:30pm
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Buffalo Bills -10 (-105)
Over/Under 54.5 (-110)
The Detroit Lions kickoff NFL Thanksgiving festivities as usual playing host to the Buffalo Bills, a team that played more recently at Ford Field this past Sunday. The Bills are heavy favorites despite some rocky play the previous three weeks, while the Lions are in the midst of a rare three game winning streak.
Bills fans are breathing a sigh of relief after a brutal start for Josh Allen and their offense against the Browns turned into a solid performance that saw them score on five straight possessions. Additionally, they were able to get a running game going with Devin Singletary and James Cook, something that has been missing for all of the 2022 season. In a season that has seen the Lions struggle mightily on defense, they’ve been suddenly better against the run, and creating turnovers during their win streak. The game plan for the Bills could be pretty vanilla again as the team has basically had to forego practice for two weeks between their snowstorm and this short week. If Josh Allen takes care of the football, their offense should do enough to move the ball on the Lions. Keep an eye on the red zone where Buffalo has really struggled this season.
The Lions continue to make things happen offensively, even though at times it doesn’t always look pretty. Behind their talented offensive line, we’re seeing Jamaal Williams look like a feature back in the league, as the team works D’Andre Swift back into the mix after his lengthy injury. The Bills are likely to be down some key defenders again this week, including Greg Rousseau, Tremaine Edmunds, Kaiir Elam and some others. With Tre’Davious White still on the shelf and Micah Hyde out for the season, Amon-Ra St. Brown could be the next in a line of number one wide receivers to have a big day. The lack of a pass rush for Buffalo the past few weeks, coupled with the holes in the secondary saw teams converting third and longs at an alarming pace. Jared Goff has proven that when he has time in the pocket, he can be an effective passer in the league.
It’s no secret the Bills have been a feast or famine type team the last couple of years. They’re either blowing teams out, or playing, and often losing close football games. That kind of seems like what we’re going to get here. They could run the Lions out of the gym, or Detroit could continue their hot play, and find a way to upset them in a battle. If you like playing high-return longshots, the Lions are a live dog on the moneyline in our opinion. Overall, the spread seems too high in general against a Detroit team that’s been playing really well of late. At the end of the day however, it seems as though the Bills should figure out a way to win this football game as they’re still a better team at this point in time. Expect some points in this one, and we’ll see if the Lions can get that rare Thanksgiving day upset, or if they’re in line for another disappointing national showing.
BetCrushers Take: Josh Allen – Over 279.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Leans: Detroit Lions +10
New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
vs. 
New York Giants (7-3) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Thursday November 25th
4:30pm
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Dallas Cowboys -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
Two teams will be heading into the Turkey Day showdown off of drastically different results when the Giants travel west to Dallas to face the Cowboys. New York got a little dose of reality in a disappointing home loss to the Lions, while the Cowboys took it to the Vikings in what was thought to be a tough road game a week ago. Are these teams headed in different directions down the stretch, or will this be a tight divisional matchup in the NFC East?
When you’re facing an aggressive defense like the Dallas Cowboys you really want to be at your best in all facets of your offense. The Giants will not be at full strength as they try to combat a unit that can both get after the quarterback and take the ball away. New York lost wideout Wan’Dale Robinson last week on the heels of shipping off Kadarius Toney, leaving them pretty thin at the position. Without a lot of real threat at wide receiver, look for Dallas to bring heavy pressure in an effort to rattle Daniel Jones, and potentially force some turnovers. The Giants need to run the ball better than they did a week ago, as that is really their only path to consistently moving the football on offense. The Giants offensive line is improved, and Barkley is as good as it gets at running back, but it probably won’t be enough with the way the Dallas defense is currently playing.
On offense for the Cowboys, the injury to Ezekiel Elliott forced Dallas to do what all of America was screaming for, which is featuring Tony Pollard as the main running back. Zeke wasn’t playing poorly, and is still involved in the game plan, but this offense just looks so much more explosive with Pollard getting more touches. There will be a lot of both backs in this game, which is the best way to attack the Giants defense. No offensive line has come together better than the Cowboys unit this season, and that has made all the difference for their production. The Giants secondary has played well versus the pass this season, however they’re going to be asked to do a lot more in run support than normal. That should open things up a bit for the Cowboys weapons. A player to watch this week on offense is tight end Dalton Schultz, who could be the main beneficiary of game script.
In the 2022 season divisional games have tended to be very close, and the underdogs have covered at a solid pace. This game certainly could fall into this path, but we’re going against the grain in what looks like a really bad spot for the New York Giants. The past five seasons the Cowboys have absolutely owned their rivals from the east, both winning outright and covering spreads. The lack of weapons for the Giants is really going to hurt them, and unless they get an insane performance from Saquon Barkley and their defense, it’s just too difficult to see them being competitive. They may be able to keep this close for a while, but ultimately, we’re expecting to see the Cowboys run away with this game. Recency bias? Maybe, yet here we are.
BetCrushers Take: Dallas Cowboys -9.5
Leans: Ezekiel Elliott – Over 44.5 Yards Rushing
New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings
vs. 
New England Patriots (6-4) at Minnesota Vikings (8-2)
Thursday November 24th
8:20pm
Bank of America Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 42 (-110)
After a full day of family, food, football and fun, the NFL will serve up their third helping of the day between the New England Patriots and the Minnesota Vikings. This is an important game for both teams for two different reasons. The Vikings are coming off an embarrassing home loss that has many questioning whether or not they’re really a good team in the NFC? The Patriots meanwhile, are simply looking to keep pace in what is a crowded playoff picture at the top in the AFC.
Much was made about the ineptness of the Jets offense in their loss to the Patriots in week eleven. Lost in that focus is the fact that the Patriots offense was equally pathetic. While both teams have good defenses, it’s only fair to recognize this Patriots offense is not exactly the definition of explosive. New England is going to try to run with Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris as much as possible, and they should find some success. As long as the Patriots don’t fall behind, this formula should keep them in the game. Their success on early downs will be critical so they can keep their third down opportunities to third and shorts. One area where the Vikings have struggled this season is defending running backs via the passing game. Expect the Patriots to challenge this area with an aggressive screen game, again on early downs or expected passing downs. A positive for the Patriots is their tackles and outside pass protection has held up much better after some hiccups, which will be important against Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith.
We’re going to learn a lot about the toughness of quarterback Kirk Cousins in this matchup, both on the physical and mental side. After being under an insane amount of pressure against the Cowboys, things won’t lighten up much against the Patriots. They’ll be using a combination of aggressive defense, and a confusing scheme, to try to force Cousins into mistakes and to take away Justin Jefferson in the passing game. The Vikings will be without their talented left tackle which proved critical, and could yet again. They’re going to have to run the ball effectively to alleviate some of the pressure on Cousins and the passing game. The best thing the Vikings have going for them in this matchup is a lot of skill position players that can contribute. Everyone knows that the Patriots want to take away the top option and force someone else to beat them. Even if they can slow down Jefferson, there are still plenty of players that can make them pay. The question is, can Dalvin Cook have that monster game running, or can T.J. Hockenson be the weapon they brought him in to be?
If you happen to catch our appearances on any of the podcasts we routinely participate on, you probably heard that we’re doing a little flip flop on this game. Initially, this seemed like a good bounceback spot for the Vikings at home on the short week. It may in fact end up playing out that way, however we’re taking the other position here and we’re going to lean towards the three points in what we expect to be a pretty close football game. This has the makings of a tough football game, where the winner comes away with a hard fought field goal victory. With the spread sitting on the key number of three, the underdog just makes more practical sense here.
BetCrushers Take: Kirk Cousins – Under 250.5 Yards Passing (-115), Rhamondre Stevenson – Over 26.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Leans: none
We thought it would be fun to add one more official play encompassing each game, so here it is:
BetCrushers Take: 3 Team 9pt Teaser (-110) Bills -1, Cowboys -.5, Patriots +11.5
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, enjoy the day!
