Previous Week Plays – 3-1
Season Record – 38-29-3

Preview:

Well NFL and sports betting fans, we made it through the regular season. There were some hiccups along the way, ask the Denver Broncos about that, but 17 completed weeks have gotten us to a field of 14 teams vying for the Lombardi Trophy. It starts with what the league is dubbing “Super Wild Card Weekend” that stacks up triple headers on both Saturday and Sunday. Only the number one seeds in each conference (the Chiefs and Packers) receive a bye, which means anyone else is going to have to win three straight to get a chance to play in Tampa for Super Bowl LV.

Not to be overly boastful, but we have really nailed the NFL playoffs for four seasons running, which will of course be the goal again in 2021. The larger slate of games offers more opportunities for wagers, but doesn’t necessarily provide more quality opportunities. In fact, if you look closely at the percentage of bets and money it’s relatively even on most of the games. You can read whatever you’d like in to that as it seems as though the Books would have a slight advantage heading into the weekend. As has been the case all season, looking for alternative angles is prudent if there are strong trends or matchups you favor. We’re providing a brief overview breakdown of each game, although we won’t be publicly playing all of them.
To see our actual posted wagers, check the end of this article.

AFC WILD CARD GAME ONE

Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills

vs.
Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at Buffalo Bills(13-3)
Buffalo Bills Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 51 (-110)

The playoffs kick off with one of the more intriguing games of the weekend as the “under the radar” Indianapolis Colts take on the scorching Buffalo Bills in New York. Indianapolis has had some big wins, and also inexplicable losses during the regular season in Philip Rivers first act with the team. The Bills were as hot as any team in the league to close out the month of December and hope to avenge their heart-breaking overtime loss to the Texans in last year’s Wild Card round.

THE INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ON OFFENSE:

One of the more balanced teams in the playoffs on offense, and overall is the Indianapolis Colts. They’re a run first team, but are more than capable of throwing it when they need to as well. It’s no secret to anyone that they’ll want to establish Jonathan Taylor and the running game heavily. For starters, that’s the best way to attack the Buffalo Bills defense, who although improved, are still a little shaky against strong running backs. The Colts are without their formidable left tackle Anthony Constanzo, but veteran Jared Veldheer at least gives them a veteran presence at the important position. He’ll be facing the Bills best pass rusher in Jerry Hughes so he’s an important piece to the success of the Colts in the passing game. Another big matchup that won’t be talked about much will be the interior of the Colts offensive line with All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson and center Ryan Kelly holding off the interior of the Bills defensive line. An early season disappointment, Bills defensive lineman Ed Oliver has come on of late and will need to push the pocket to disrupt Philip Rivers in throwing situations. The secondary of the Bills is their strength and should lock up favorably with their receivers, but watch the tight ends and Nyheim Hines closely in the passing game. No team or quarterback throws to their backs and tight ends more than Rivers which is a good thing against this Bills defense. The return of Matt Milano is big though for Buffalo in defending those positions. Look for a lot of Jonathan Taylor early, and if the Colts can get a lead he’ll see a lot of carries.

THE BUFFALO BILLS ON OFFENSE:

In a rare switch, the NFL media can’t stop gushing about the Buffalo Bills offense and their recent production. Can they continue their torrid pace against a very game Indianapolis Colts defense? Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is a hot potential head coaching candidate and the Bills need to hope he’s focused on a strong gameplan Saturday. Daboll has proven he will attack a teams weakness and although the Colts are pretty solid across the board, their biggest weakness is in their secondary. All-Pro players DeForest Bucker and Darius Leonard are near impossible to run on so Daboll likely won’t even attempt a lot of traditional runs with Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss. Although Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley are both a little dinged up, the Bills will likely go with a lot of three and four wide receiver sets to attack a thinned out Colts secondary. With John Brown returning from injury last week and the emergence of youngsters Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie there’s a lot of speed to cover for Indy. Rock Ya-Sin was ruled out and veteran T.J. Carrie will be pressed into starting duty, meaning Buffalo has some advantages with their receivers if quarterback Josh Allen has the time to throw. It will be interesting to watch if Josh Allen can be the calm guiding talent he’s been this season as opposed to the jittery youngster we saw against the Texans in his first playoff start. Something that also needs to be watched is special teams as each team has some younger players and whether or not the pressure of the playoffs gets to them is also key.

KEY STATS:
– The Colts are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Total has gone over in 8 of the last 11 Colts Games
– The Bills are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Bills are averaging 31 points per game in the 2020 season

PUBLIC MONEY: – Buffalo Bills 54%

THE SKINNY:
The resumes of these teams are both pretty impressive which makes this one of the top games of the weekend. For the Bills the plan is pretty straightforward, keep riding the momentum of play and make sure they can slow down Jonathan Taylor. The Colts are a little tougher to handicap because of their high-low variance throughout the season. This team can compete with anyone, and with a veteran like Philip Rivers at quarterback they won’t be flustered in this matchup. Can Rivers play mistake free (interception free) football against an improving and hungry Bills defense? With him you never know, but historically this could be a game where he tosses a pick or two that could be the turning points in the game. Because of the Colts ability to beat the Packers, but lose to the Jaguars, we’ll pass on actually playing this game against the spread. However, the first half total is something we do have listed at the bottom of this article with our public plays. Both teams have been pretty strong first half teams this year so even with a pretty high first half number, and the trend of Wild Card games staying under, we’re going to take a small stab at that for this game. Our very uncertain lean is listed here:

BetCrushers Lean: Indianapolis Colts +6.5
Buffalo Bills 29, Indianapolis Colts 24

NFC WILD CARD GAME ONE

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

vs.

Los Angeles Rams (10-6) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
CenturyLink Stadium – Seattle, WA
Seattle Seahawks -3 (-120)
Over/Under 42 (-110)

Third time will be a charm for one of these teams as the first Wild Card game featuring divisional foes has the Rams heading north to take on the Seahawks. There is still some uncertainty on who will be at the helm for Los Angeles as Jared Goff looks like he’ll be a late decision. Both teams are struggling a bit on the offensive side but playing tough defense. It very well could be the team that can take care of the football that comes away with this important win.

THE LOS ANGELES RAMS ON OFFENSE:

Some pundits are taking shots at Jared Goff and wondering out loud if the team might be more effective offensively with John Wolford starting at quarterback. It’s not that cut and dry and we aren’t buying that argument despite the flaws that Goff has shown this season and in his career. The difficult task for the Seahawks defense is figuring out how to prepare as Goff and Wolford have two different skill sets with Wolford’s mobility posing a different challenge. Although that could be helpful it seems like Goff’s familiarity with the Seahawks might be more advantageous overall. Either way it’s going to be a tough task as the Seattle defense is playing well, particularly against the run. It’s still technically questionable whether or not Jamal Adams will be able to play for the Seahawks and that’s one of the biggest question marks of the weekend. Without him in the lineup, or restricted, this defense has to change the scheme they run. Don’t expect the Rams to change their philosophy a whole lot though as Sean McVay has his gameplan that he’s going to ride with it’s quick passes and motion. The return of Cooper Kupp is certainly big, especially if Adams is in fact out. That helps with loosening up the pass rush and short passing game over the middle of the field. Finally, let’s take a look at two really important pieces in this game at the tight end position with Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. Both have the ability to make plays and Seattle has struggled all season covering opposing tight ends. That’s an area Los Angeles absolutely has to win if they want to pull out the road win.

THE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS ON OFFENSE:

Which version of the Seattle Seahawks offense are we going to end up seeing on Wild Card weekend? If you believe they’ll regain their footing, it’s important to remember they’re matching up against one of the league’s top defenses. D.K. Metcalf will draw Jalen Ramsey so let’s go by historical trends and suggest that Metcalf may not have a big day. That puts some pressure on both Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett to carry the offense. As was the case with the Rams tight ends, the Hawks’ could look to lean on their trio of tight ends as well if the deep plays aren’t available. Getting the running game going would also be a big boost for the Seattle, although that’s also unlikely with the Rams boasting the third best rush defense in the league. In direct correlation with that running game is the play, or lack of quality play recently from their offensive line. Seattle has downright struggled to open holes in the running game or give Wilson consistent time in the pocket. Never a good thing when Aaron Donald is lined up on the other side of the field.

KEY STATS:
– The total has gone under in 11 of the last 13 Rams games
– The Rams are 2-10 straight up in their last 12 games at Seattle
– The Seahawks are 7-1 straight up in their 8 home games in 2020

PUBLIC MONEY: – Seattle Seahawks 53%

This game is a pretty even handicap when you study the tale of the tape. The status of Jared Goff is the most important piece despite what some people may have you believe. He clearly gives this team the best opportunity to win and has proven he can beat this team before. Either way though it’s just tough to see Seattle not finding a way to win this game. Despite their lackluster play of late, they get the game in the comfort of their home and have the advantage at the most important position on the field. In a game that appears to be pretty evenly matched, it simply makes sense to side with the better quarterback. Much like in the first game, we have play listed that involves the first half total. For the sake of this handicap, we’ll give the home team the ever so slight advantage. If you’re taking the Seahawks, find a book with a -3, if you like the Rams you’ll want to get the +3.5.

BetCrushers Lean: Seattle Seahawks -3
Seattle Seahawks 23, Los Angeles Rams 20

NFC WILD CARD GAME TWO

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington FT

vs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) at Washington FT (7-9)
FedEx Field – Landover, MD
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 (-115)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)

The Washington Football Team is limping into the playoffs both literally and figuratively. With their 7-9 record they get to host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 8 point underdogs in the Saturday evening primetime game. Not many would argue that Tampa is the vastly superior team, but Washington has the type of defense that could give Tom Brady difficulties. Will this game be a blowout by the red-hot visitors, or can the home team grind out a major upset?

THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS ON OFFENSE:

It’s always an easy handicap and kind of fun to talk about the talented skill players and the advantage they have when we’re looking at the Buccaneers. This is one of the few matchups where that is potentially not where the game will be one or lost. Don’t get us wrong, it certainly could, as if things get rolling, TB could simply outclass their opponents. Having Mike Evans trending to play keeps them at the top of the class in terms of weapons. But any chance of the Washington upset is going to focus on the battle of the trenches. Although it may be cliché to say that, it’s absolutely true in this game. The Tampa Bay offensive line has been up and down and faces a very tough test against the Washington front. Chase Young and Montez Sweat are shaping up to be a fierce pass rushing tandem for the next handful of years and know how important it is for them to get pressure on Bucs QB Tom Brady. Historically, Brady has done pretty well against edge rushers when he can step up in the pocket and throw. It’s really Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne on the interior of the Washington line that need to dominate and put pressure in Brady’s face. If they can do that and win routinely, they have a chance to slow down and frustrate Brady and this offense. If they don’t, Brady will utilize his talented weapons and have a field day.

THE WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM ON OFFENSE:

When we look at the offense for Washington all we need to say is that it had better do a lot better than it did a week ago against an Eagles defense playing with half of their defensive starters. It’s not that the team is lacking of talent as Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas and an adequate running game give them enough to be able to move the chains. The problem seems to be more at the quarterback position, and at the risk of being an armchair QB, the lack of creativity with the offensive play calling. In terms of the scheme we can only assume we won’t see much difference there so can the team get enough out of the quarterback? It’s hard to imagine they will as we could be looking at a two quarterback system with both Alex Smith and Taylor Heinecke potentially seeing snaps. Whoever is in is going to have to make plays throwing the football as the Bucs’ strong run defense should be able to contain Antonio Gibson. It’s tough to see Washington finding their way to more than 20 points or so which means their defense is going to really have to bring their “A” game for them to have a chance.

KEY STATS:
– The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Buccaneers are 5-0 straight up in their last 5 road games
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 games for Washington

PUBLIC MONEY: – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 62%

It seems like there are two likely scenarios in how this game is going to play out. Some people believe that Washington is going to pressure Brady relentlessly which will lead to a possible upset, or at least a cover of a big number. Others feel this is a total mismatch of talent and Tampa Bay is going to glide to an easy double-digit win. The fact of the matter is, either could be right and you can make that argument either way. As a result this game seems much better to tease in getting the Bucs’ under the key number of 3 points. If you’re a big “live” bettor, keep an eye on how the first series or so go in this game when Tampa is on offense. If brady looks uncomfortable, this is going to end up being a close football game. If Tampa is moving the ball and Brady looks good, it’ll likely end up in a rout.

BetCrushers Lean: Washington Football Team +8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Washington Football Team 20

AFC WILD CARD GAME TWO

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans

vs.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Tennessee Titans (11-5)
Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN
Baltimore Ravens -3 (-120)
Over/Under 54.5 (-110)

A rematch from last year’s upset win by the Tennessee Titans against the Baltimore Ravens starts out the Sunday slate. Both teams offenses have been on an absolute tear and oddsmakers opened the total at 54.5. In what should be a fun battle of good offenses, it just might be the team that can put together the best defensive showing that comes away with the victory.

THE BALTIMORE RAVENS ON OFFENSE:

Unless you aren’t an avid NFL fan you already know what the Ravens want to do on offense. They’re going to rely on Lamar Jackson and their running backs to make plays on the ground both in small chunks and explosive bursts. Baltimore has had one of the most explosive offenses in the league down the stretch of the regular season as Lamar Jackson has hit his stride again. They’ve got to be excited about facing a Titans defense that has not been able to slow down anyone for most of the season. If running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards can find early success the Ravens should be able to put up a lot of points. Conversely, if the Titans can contain the running game of the Ravens even just a bit, it could get really interesting. We’ve seen what can happen when Jackson is put in a situation where he needs to throw to win. The Titans are ranked 28th in pass defense, so it would be a weakness versus weakness battle if Baltimore is forced to throw. We often overlook the special teams conversation and we’d be negligent if we didn’t bring up the fact that Ravens kicker Justin Tucker could be a huge weapon and a distinct advantage in this game.

THE TENNESSEE TITANS ON OFFENSE:

The Titans were able to ride the monster finish of Derrick Henry in 2019 right through these Baltimore Ravens a year ago with a huge game. Tennessee is hoping to do the exact same thing this year as the Ravens hope they can bottle up the workhorse. Baltimore has its defensive front about as healthy as it’s been (Yannick Ngakoue being the exception) and hope that additions like Calais Campbell can help in that quest to slow down Henry. Even if the Titans are slowed on the ground it doesn’t mean their hopes of scoring are diminished as Ryan Tannehill has proven repeatedly he can be counted on to make big plays in the passing game. Baltimore does match up with Titans wide receivers Corey Davis and A.J. Brown about as well as anyone with their talented corners. After a rough patch in the middle of the season Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey have played better the last few weeks, all while battling injuries. It seems like we’re repeating ourselves in a lot of the handicaps, but don’t sleep on tight ends Johnnu Smith and Anthony Firkser. Tannehill doesn’t feature them often, but in the red zone both are big targers that can beat the Ravens safeties and linebackers in coverage.

KEY STATS:
– The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Ravens are 12-2 straight up in their last 14 road games
– The Titans are 5-2 straight up in their last 7 games

PUBLIC MONEY: – Baltimore Ravens – 51%

Sports gambling phrases can be like misdirection plays in a football game. This game seems to fall into the category of a “square dog” as a lot of people remember what happened last year and are taking King Henry at home getting points. You can’t necessarily blame them as the Titans could very well win this football game, or at the very least cover/push. Despite Mike Vrabel’s recent success bottling up Lamar Jackson, and his teams ability to score a lot of points, this just doesn’t seem to line up well for Tennessee. They’ve been playing pretty mediocre football towards the end of the season while the Ravens are flying high. Without the element of surprise the Ravens should be prepared, and the special teams mismatch here could be crucial. We’re steering clear of the square dog and we’re going to take the hot team as the favorite.

BetCrushers Lean: Baltimore Ravens -3
Baltimore Ravens 34, Tennessee Titans 28

NFC WILD CARD GAME THREE

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints
vs.

Chicago Bears (8-8) at New Orleans Saints (12-4)
Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
New Orleans Saints -10 (-110)
Over/Under 47 (-110)

The Chicago Bears made it into the playoffs during what was a somewhat bizarre season for them. They have a tough task in the Superdome taking on a New Orleans Saints team that hopes it’s getting healthy and peaking at the right time. With the weekend’s biggest spread set at Saints -10, oddsmakers aren’t giving the Bears much of a shot at pulling the upset. Is there a good betting angle in this game?

THE CHICAGO BEARS ON OFFENSE:

Unlike the Seahawks who we reference earlier as a team whose offense had slowed due to poor offensive line play, the Bears seem to be the opposite. Their offensive line has stepped up in a big way paving the path for David Montgomery and Mitchell Trubisky to play as well as the team had hoped and planned for. They’ll need every bit of that quality play going up against a tough Saints defense that is playing up to form after a slow start to the season. It’s very tough to imagine David Montgomery will be able to continue the success he found against some pretty weak recent opponents versus the 4th ranked New Orleans run defense. That puts a lot of stress on Mitchell Trubisky to produce from the quarterback position, which is not ideally where the Bears would like to be. The Saints are no slouches at getting after quarterbacks either and have a strong corner to match up with Allen Robinson II in the secondary. For the Bears to have a shot in this game Mitchell Trubisky needs to do two important and obvious things. First, he absolutely must take care of the football. Secondly, he has to use his athleticism to run for first downs when the coverage is tight rather than forcing bad throws. It would behoove the Bears to get Jimmy Graham involved also as their offense was at its peak this season when Graham was involved.

THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS ON OFFENSE:

There is no doubt that the New Orleans Saints have the talent and scheme to be a dominant offense in these playoffs. The team welcomes back Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas and is at full strength at the skill positions for the first time in a while. It remains to be seen whether or not Thomas can gel instantly back into the fold or if it’s going to take some time. Fortunately the team has enough weapons even if he is a little rusty or the timing is off with Drew Brees and the offense. Head coach Sean Payton should have a pretty detailed gameplan in place to attack a still formidable Bears defense. As was the case in the Bears dominant defensive days from a few seasons ago, they need to get pressure on Brees and try to force turnovers or at least short fields for their offense. Don’t be surprised to see a little more of Taysom Hill if the offense is a little slow out of the gate to provide the energy and toughness against the interior of the Bears defense.

KEY STATS:
– The Bears are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games vs the Saints
– The Bears are 3-7 straight up in their last 10 games
– The Saints are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games

PUBLIC MONEY: – New Orleans Saints – 54%

This game really seems to be a bad matchup for the Bears on both sides of the football, but particularly the offensive side. The spread seems a bit steep, but when you’ve got a double-digit spread in the NFL there is usually a reason for it. The big concern if you want to lay the points here is it could very much be a backdoor cover late in the game. You might also worry about the Saints being flat, but that’s hard to imagine after their uninspiring performance in last year’s playoffs against the Vikings. Good luck if you’re playing the spread in either direction as we’re definitely not a fan either way. The Saints should roll… But will they earn the cover and hold it?

BetCrushers Lean: New Orleans Saints -10
New Orleans Saints 31, Chicago Bears 17

AFC WILD CARD GAME THREE

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
vs.

Cleveland Browns (11-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (-110)
Over/Under 47 (-110)

Nothing like facing your opponent in back-to-back weekends which is what the Browns and Steelers will be doing when they close the weekend out on Sunday evening. Things will look a little different though as this contest is in Pittsburgh and the Steelers will be playing all of their starters including quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Additionally, the Browns will have to take the field without their head coach Kevin Stefanski who has to miss the game due to COVID-19 protocols.

THE CLEVELAND BROWNS ON OFFENSE:

How do you put a value on what Kevin Stefanski’s absence means to this Browns team and their offense? Oddsmakers put about 3 points on it as the line shifted from Pittsburgh -3ish opening to -6 presently. It’s certainly not a good thing that Stefanski won’t be participating, but this game seems more about Baker Mayfield on the offensive side of the ball for Cleveland. The team looked very average last week and will need to be sharper and more explosive if they want to get the win against their rival. Before we get to Mayfield let’s talk about the importance of the Browns offensive line who will be without a key cog as Joel Bitonio has to miss the contest due to COVID as well. That’s concerning for Cleveland even with the Steelers defense still adapting to losing some key pieces of their own earlier in the year, specifically linebackers Devin Bush and Bud Dupree. Mayfield has performed very well when given time in the pocket or off of play action outside of the pocket, yet not very well when under pressure. Even without Dupree the Steelers should be able to get enough of a pass rush after Mayfield if he’s in obvious passing situations. The Browns absolutely must establish running back Nick Chubb in this game to have any chance. If they can stay committed Chubb should find some success as he’s very rarely shut down on the ground. This Steelers defense which was very tough to run on early in the season has been much more suspect in the second half of the year. This offense Sunday will go as far as Nick Chubb will take them, because it’s crucial for Baker Mayfield.

THE PITTSBURGH STEELERS ON OFFENSE:

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense which seemed as though it was in a permanent slumber, went completely crazy in the second half of their big comeback win against the Colts. Pittsburgh fans hope that wasn’t an anomaly and the team regained it’s potent form. They’ll face a Browns defense that is coming in undermanned as they lost edge rusher Olivier Vernon to injury and will be without safety Ronnie Harrison, further thinning out their secondary. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin admitted that at this point in the season that his team is what it is on offense. That means they’re not counting on James Conner and Bennie Snell, Jr. getting 30 carries in the ground game. The question is, can they do enough running the football to stay semi-balanced? Look for Ben Roethlisberger to spread the ball around to all of his receivers and tight ends.

KEY STATS:
– The Browns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games
– The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs the Steelers
– The Steelers are 10-0 straight up in the last 10 home games vs Browns

PUBLIC MONEY: – Pittsburgh Steelers 60%

The Pittsburgh Steelers sure don’t seem scared of their old brown punching bag as JuJu Smith-Schuster pointed out this week. It’s understandable based on their track records and the fact the Browns are getting a whopping one afternoon of practice in due to their COVID issues. It feels like we’ll look back on the 2020 season as the one where the Browns took the next step in the process in getting to the playoffs. Ultimately, it’s just not lining up for them to come away with a win in this game however. They may or may not be able to keep this one close, but there should be some scoring either way. For at least one more game, the Steelers will give little brother another beating.

BetCrushers Lean: Cleveland Browns +6
Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Cleveland Browns 24

WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:

You’ve had a chance to check out our leans and predictions for all six of the Super Wild Card weekend matchups. We’re bucking some trends as Wild Card games have recently trended towards unders with some over plays. Add in one against the spread and a teaser and we’re ready for what we think is going to be a complete and action packed NFL Weekend. Based upon our evaluations and rankings, here are the bets that we are locked in on: