Previous Week Plays – 4-2
Season Record – 44-43-1

Wild Card Recap:

Wild Card weekend was pretty exciting in terms of the slate of six games, and also fruitful with our six wagers, which resulted in four winners. Before we recap we’ll point out and mildly vent on the fact we were oh so close to a perfect 6-0 card. We started with laying a big number with the San Francisco 49ers, who overcame a tight first half to dominate the Seahawks in the second stanza for an ultimately easy cover. Things evened up as we had the Chargers, who inexplicably gave up a 27-0 lead and couldn’t get the job done. We played the square dog by taking the New York Giants against the Vikings, a spread that was really never in great doubt. We grabbed the big number with the Ravens in a rivalry game, and they got it home, and arguably should have won the game. We did lost the under 40.5 though, by the hook. And our very popular parlay of the week with the Niners, Bills and Bengals squeezed by. Overall, it was a good weekend as our nice playoff streak dating back several seasons continues.

Divisional Round Preview:

The elite eight is upon us as many believe this is the best weekend of quality football that we will see all season. If you recall last year, the divisional round was one for the ages, pinnacling with one of the greatest games in recent years between the Bills and the Chiefs. Both are back again, needing wins to meet each other yet again, potentially at a neutral site. Standing in their way are the upstart Jaguars, and the previous AFC Champs from Cincinnati. In the NFC, the Eagles will join the tournament off of their #1 seed bye, with a round three against the rival New York Giants. And perhaps the scariest team at this stage of the season, the San Francisco 49ers will play host to the Dallas Cowboys in a reincarnation of an early 1990’s rivalry. Most power rankings at the later stages of the season had the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, 49ers and Eagles as the top five in some order or another. They’re all alive heading into the weekend, but at least one will be eliminated before the round of four. Buckle up, it’s going to be an intense weekend of football. If you want to skip ahead and just see our bets for the weekend, scroll to the bottom.

AFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs

vs.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under 53 (-110)

The Kansas City Chiefs are no strangers to the NFL playoffs under Patrick Mahomes, and face an opponent who hasn’t been in the dance since Mahomes entered the league. With all due respect to the New York Giants, the Jacksonville Jaguars are the surprise Cinderella story of the divisional round. They’ll matchup in Kansas City in the game with the largest point spread differential of the weekend. If we ever wanted evidence that a good head coach and quarterback relationship are foundational pieces of a successful football team, look no further than these two groups.

THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS ON OFFENSE:

At times the offense for the Jacksonville Jaguars can sputter, but when they’re clicking they can look really unstoppable. That was the tale of two halves in their Wild Card matchup, where they couldn’t move the ball and turned it over in the first half, before completely dominating in in the second half. That play of the team pretty much begins and ends with 2nd year quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who will make his first road start in the playoffs in noisy Arrowhead Stadium. Lawrence and the Jags played in KC in November and put a respectable effort forth offensively, although the score and the stats were mildly misleading. Lawrence put up some yards and a touchdown late when the game was basically in hand, somewhat skewing the reality of the contest. One of the biggest problems for the Jags offense in that matchup was Lawrence was under heavy duress, including being sacked five times. The Jaguars offensive line has been inconsistent, but overall has played well, especially considering they’re playing without left tackle Cam Robinson. With some of the success the Chiefs defense had, it’s fair to assume Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will once again dial up some blitzes to pressure Lawrence in an effort to force some mistakes. Playing against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will require the Jaguars taking care of the football, as they won’t be able to overcome a huge deficit and turnovers as they could against the Chargers. Jacksonville needs to establish some form of a running game with Travis Etienne, as much as to keep the Chiefs offense off of the field than anything. After struggling early in the year stopping the run, the Chiefs improved down the stretch. Even if the Jags can establish the run, they’re going to need to score points in this game to pull off the upset. The trio of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Marvin Jones, Jr. will need to play well, but the player that could be the wild card may well be tight end Evan Engram. Over the past month Engram’s targets and production have skyrocketed, and he provides a clear matchup challenge, much like his counterpart Travis Kelce. The bottom line for the Jaguars offense is they have a plethora of capable weapons, and they’re all going to need to play a part.

THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:

Speaking of the first matchup between these teams, all Patrick Mahomes did was toss for a pedestrian 331 yards and 4 touchdowns. A big part of that success was the great protection he received and will likely receive again from his dominant offensive line. The Jaguars were unable to get pressure on Mahomes, so let’s see what Josh Allen and the edge players for Jacksonville can do this time around. One thing we’ve watched the Chiefs do in the second half of the season is really try to run the ball more. Isiah Pacheco has emerged as a feature back, with Jerick McKinnon doing a lot of damage as a receiver. The Jaguars have been pretty tough against the run so McKinnon figures to be more of a factor in this game. With the absence of Tyreek Hill, Mahomes has been forced to really spread the ball around, which may make this offense even more dangerous. The one constant of course, would be tight end Travis Kelce, the consensus top target. The Jaguars are one of the worst teams in the league at defending the tight end position, so Kelce could be an even bigger factor than usual. In their first matchup the Jaguars tried different defenders and coverages to slow down the future Hall of Fame tight end, with little success. It’s difficult to find what kind of adjustments Jacksonville might come up with to keep Kelce under wraps. One other interesting thing to keep an eye on is the legs of Patrick Mahomes, particularly on third downs. Throughout his playoff career, Mahomes has stepped up his rushing attempts, and if the Chiefs need to keep the chains moving that trend will continue.

KEY STATS:
– The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Jaguars are 0-6 against the Chiefs in their last 6 matchups
– The Chiefs are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games

PUBLIC MONEY: – Kansas City Chiefs 65%

THE SKINNY:
Potentially betting this game against the spread has forced a lot of thinking and reconsidering, which is a sure sign that we need to pass on an official wager. Our traditional breakdown would have us in favor of taking the large point spread with the Jaguars, as they’ve been on an absolute roll. Of course, they’ve faced some pretty poor teams during their recent winning streak. The Chiefs on the other hand have struggled to cover the spread for much of the second half of the season, and have let lesser teams hang around. The playoffs are a different animal though, and the Chiefs have a week of extra rest and preparation. Despite our handicap having this around a touchdown win for Kansas City, there’s something here that just feels like it could end up being a blowout in favor of the home team. Even with the potential of a backdoor score to cover with a large spread we’ve got to pass on this game against the spread. With that being said, we’re going to absolutely have to play the ever popular Chiefs teaser here and pair them with the Eagles. The sportsbooks need one of these teaser legs to bust, which is always a little scary, but it’s just tough to imagine the Jaguars pulling off the road victory against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Bright things are on the horizion for Trevor Lawrence and the Jags, it’s simply not their time yet.

BetCrushers Lean: Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5
Kansas City Chiefs 29, Jacksonville Jaguars 23

NFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

vs.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)

Not many people had the Philadelphia Eagles as the top seed in the NFC during the preseason, but that was probably more believable than the New York Giants being amongst the last eight teams standing in the playoffs. The Giants will head down interstate 95 for a third matchup with their divisional rivals fresh off of what was arguably their best performance of the year versus the Vikings. The Eagles enter the contest rested and on a mission to recapture the dominance they showed in the first half of the season.

THE NEW YORK GIANTS ON OFFENSE:

The Giants have to be feeling pretty good about their offense heading into this matchup with Daniel Jones coming off of arguably the best game of his career against the Vikings. The problem with really assessing a lot out of that effort is that it was against the Vikings. Things will be a little tougher against the Eagles defense coming off of a week of extra rest. The Giants offensive line has played fairly well this season, but outside of left tackle Andrew Thomas, they’re vulnerable against physical pass rushers. The Eagles will be attacking Daniel Jones when he’s throwing, because they’ll trust their secondary to hold up against the receivers for New York. Isaiah Hodgins has been a nice addition, and Richie James, Jr. has given NY a spark, but it will be difficult for them to win against Darius Slay and James Bradberry. In turn, that is going to put a lot of pressure on Saquon Barkley and Jones to run the ball well. The Eagles had some stretches in the middle of the season where they were pushed around a bit against some physical running games, but they’ve cleaned that up. This is primarily because rookie Jordan Davis has proven to be a massive run-stuffer in the middle of the defensive line. With the rotation of Javon Hargave, Fletcher Cox and additions of Linval Joseph and N’damukong Suh, Philly can keep their big guys fresh for four quarters. As hot as the Giants offense looked a week ago, don’t be shocked if they’re punting the ball a bit more, especially if they find themselves in third and long situations. While punting isn’t ideal, it’s still better than turning the ball over. Daniel Jones has done a great job protecting the football this season, and any chance for a road win here is going to take a clean game from the New York offense.

THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES ON OFFENSE:

If the Eagles are going to advance and ultimately win the Super Bowl their offense needs to find the explosiveness it had before the injury to Jalen Hurts. With an extra week off Hurts should be back with no limitations, which means a lot of running and throwing from the QB position. How much he opts to run could be dependent on the status of right tackle Lane Johnson. Preliminarily, it looks like Johnson is going to be able to go, which is a huge boost to the Philadelphia offense. Despite the recent emergence of rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux as an edge rusher, the Giants defense ranked near the bottom in defensive EPA during the regular season. The Eagles boast the top overall offensive line in football, so they should be able to run the ball with Miles Sanders and protect Hurts in the passing game. Both A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith should create some space when the Eagles do throw, but much like in the other game, it could be tight end Dallas Goedert who is the reliable player moving the chains. That’s part of what makes the Eagles offense so dangerous, they can beat you over the top with explosive plays, or move the ball methodically down the field. We talked about the Giants needing to play mistake free on offense, and on defense they need to be the ones forcing the mistakes.

KEY STATS:
– The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Giants are 2-11 straight up in their last 13 games vs. the Eagles
– The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Eagles are 9-0 straight up in their last 9 home games vs. the Giants

PUBLIC MONEY: – New York Giants 66%

The New York Giants have overachieved all season, and they’re realistically playing their best football entering these playoffs. We simply put that out there to let you know that we’re going the opposite direction here, as we foresee the Cinderella story coming to an end for Brian Daboll in his rookie head coaching season. These are divisional teams, and it will be a physical game, however this is simply not a good matchup for the Giants. The Eagles are rested and have some extra prep time, and of course the homefield advantage. Moreover, they have the clear matchup advantage on both sides of the football. Make no mistake about it, the Giants are not facing the Minnesota Vikings defense this week. The Eagles should be able to lockdown the New York receivers, making them a one dimensional team as we mentioned. With the Eagles heavy zone scheme defense, they should at least be able to contain Daniel Jones with his QB scrambles. With a healthy front seven, Saquon Barkley will struggle to really get a whole lot of production going on the ground game. All of that adds up to some trouble getting points on the board for the G-Men. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles have weapons to attack on all fronts, and the big difference here is the running ability of Jalen Hurts, something that Kirk Cousins obviously did not possess. We’re double-dipping on this game with a play ATS on the Eagles, and as mentioned above, the teaser paired with Kansas City.

BetCrushers Lean: Philadelphia Eagles -7.5
Philadelphia Eagles 30, New York Giants 17

AFC DIVISIONAL GAME TWO

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills

vs.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-105)
Over/Under 49 (-110)

Understandably lost in the major storyline of Damar Hamlin’s Monday Night Football injury and subsequent recovery, is the fact the Bengals and Bills never got to finish their heavyweight matchup that could have altered the top three seeds in the AFC. The Bengals were locked in early on and will hope to overcome some offensive line challenges to continue that offensive start. The Bills need to clean up some turnovers and missed opportunities to continue their march to the AFC Championship game.

THE CINCINNATI BENGALS ON OFFENSE:

As the Bengals found their stride during the regular season, there were times when their offense looked unstoppable. That will happen when you have a quarterback like Joe Burrow and a trio of fantastic wide receivers. At the beginning of the season however they stumbled a bit as the offensive line was working their way into form. Fast forward to the upcoming matchup with the Bills and the key to the Bengals success likely rests yet again on how well the offensive line can protect Burrow and give him time to throw. We know they’ll be without right tackle La’el Collins, it’s the health and availability of left tackle Jonah Williams and right guard Alex Cappa that are the questions marks heading into this one. Both players are listed as week to week, which would lead us to believe they’re probably not going to be playing in this game. That leaves Burrow with a lot of unproven and mediocre players in front of him for this contest. (We’ll of course want to check the practice/injury report on Friday). The positive news for Cincinnati is since the loss of Von Miller, the Bills front four has dropped to 27th in the league in getting pressure with their front four. They were third with Miller in the lineup through have the season. In order to get pressure, defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has had to resort to blitzing linebackers and safeties, something that Burrow generally feasts on. Combine that with soft cornerback play, and we could see a lot of catches for Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, as well as tight end Hayden Hurst. Again, much of this is contingent upon whether or not that Bengals line can hold up to a four man rush. Frazier will test that early in the game before deciding whether or not he needs to bring extra pressure. When Williams left the game against the Ravens, the Bengals offense largely stalled. However, the Ravens defense was playing as well as any team not named the 49ers down the stretch, so things will loosen up just a bit against Buffalo. The potentially weakened offensive line will also make it tough for running back Joe Mixon to find a lot of running room, particularly with an improved Bills run defense. It is worth noting the Bills have a couple of interior linemen banged up as well as Daquan Jones and Jordan Phillips, who missed last week’s game are both listed as questionable heading into the meeting. Cincinnati is confident with their offensive game plan based on the great opening series they had when these teams started their game a couple of weeks ago, but again that was with a mostly intact offensive line. For as great as Burrow and his weapons are, the performance of the offensive line will likely determine how explosive their offense can be.

THE BUFFALO BILLS ON OFFENSE:

Sure the Bills had to narrowly squeak by the Dolphins, and they turned the ball over four times in that game, but they did rack up a lot of yards and ultimately points too. They were plagued by some things that have hurt them in their losses this year, some untimely turnovers and dropped passes. Moving forward the competition will be too good to overcome those mistakes, so this team has the cliché mantra of “they are the only team that can beat themselves”. The Bengals defense has been an underrated unit all year, largely because they’re pretty good at stopping the run and generating a pass rush. The Bills may not even attempt to run much, as they don’t mind airing it out if the running game isn’t working. With D.J. Reader anchoring the interior of the defense for Cincinnati, it’s very possible Buffalo won’t get much going with Devin Singletary and James Cook on the ground. The ground gainer that we could see make an appearance is Josh Allen, who has no problem putting his head down and running when the team needs to make plays. In a game of this magnitude, expect a lot of running from Allen to cut down on the potential turnovers, and potentially avoid edge rushers Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard. Speaking of those edge rushers, it’s also a key on this side of the ball as well. When Allen has time to throw, he can be surgical and take some deep shots for big plays. When he’s under pressure, he’ll often force some throws he probably shouldn’t make. Left tackle Dion Dawkins will be asked to matchup with Hendrickson quite a bit, and they’ll probably each find some success along the way. The other side is where the Bengals can take advantage, as Bills right tackle Spencer Brown has been a bit of a liability in pass protection all season. In the game a week ago where Allen and the Bills saw a lot of cover zero which made for some one on one strikes down the field, they’re likely to see more soft zone coverage here, so they’ll need to be patient and take the underneath throws that are there. The Bills offense tends to start and stop with Stefon Diggs, but they always need someone else to step up in support. That could be Gabe Davis again, or potentially tight end Dawson Knox, who has a touchdown in five straight games.

KEY STATS:
– The Bengals have won 9 games straight up in a row
– The Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games
– The Bills have won 8 games straight up in a row

PUBLIC MONEY: – Cincinnati Bengals 78%

This may end up being the best game of the weekend, and chances are the team that has the ball last could end up being the winner. Turnovers will be critical, and the Bengals offensive line versus the Bills front four on defense is the real matchup that will dictate the feel of this contest. One thing to monitor in this game is the impact of the weather as we could get some snow or windy conditions, something that could effect the overall play and tempo. Ironically, the majority of the tickets are on the Bengals, yet this line moved towards the Bills as sharp money is driving this movement. The Bengals looked like they were going to drop 40 points at the start of the unfinished Monday Night Football game, but that was with a mostly intact offensive line, and in their own stadium. Our handicap here is very similar to the Jaguars/Chiefs in that taking the points with the Bengals seems like the right play. With that being said, we don’t know how big of an impact the banged up line for the Bengals might be. Even though we have this as a Bills -3.5 spread, we’re going to take a pass on playing the Bengals, or anything else here, at least officially.

BetCrushers Lean: Cincinnati Bengals +5.5
Buffalo Bills 31, Cincinnati Bengals 30

NFC DIVISIONAL GAME TWO

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers

vs.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -4 (-110)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)

We won’t be seeing Steve Young and Troy Aikman in the NFC divisional matchup between the Cowboys and 49ers on Sunday, but that doesn’t mean the stars won’t be out in San Francisco. Dallas heads west, fresh off of their first road playoff win in years, needing a win to face one of their NFC East foes in the NFC Championship game. The 49ers meanwhile, haven’t let the loss of their top two quarterbacks impact their winning ways. With a lot of eyes on the offenses, it could be the team who plays better defensively that comes away with the victory to advance.

THE DALLAS COWBOYS ON OFFENSE:

The Jeckyl and Hyde Dallas Cowboys offense takes aim at the top defense in the league in what should be a fun battle to watch. The question of course that we all want to see, is which version of this Dallas offense is going to show up? It’s likely it will be somewhere in between the horrendous unit we saw against Washington, and the elite group we watched dismantle the Buccaneers last weekend. Dallas does prevent a real challenge agains the 49ers because they are fairly versatile in terms of how they want to play. While they always look to start on the ground with Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott, that will be limited by the Niners top run defense. Fortunately for the Cowboys, they can overcome that with a sound passing game, and attack the 49ers where they are at least a little more vulnerable through the air. In what is really a reoccurring theme, we’ll have to see how well the Cowboys offensive line can hold up against the fierce front seven of the 49ers defense? If Dak Prescott has time to throw, CeeDee Lamb should continue a trend of receivers making plays against the 49ers secondary, including cornerback Charvarius Ward, who has had his issues of late. Of course if Dak is under heavy pressure, we could end up seeing more of what he led the league in, which is interceptions. Much as we also discussed in some other matchups, someone else on the Dallas offense is going to have to step up to support CeeDee Lamb in the passing game. Last week that was Dalton Schultz, and it could be him again. Ideally, the team would like to get more out of Michael Gallup, or even see more of veteran T.Y. Hilton. It’s a team game, but the best individual matchup to watch here is going to be Tyron Smith, now manning the right tackle spot against defensive player of the year (presumably) Nick Bosa. One last important thing to mention: What is the kicking situation for the Cowboys after Brett Maher’s epically bad performance against the Bucs?

THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ers ON OFFENSE:

After a relatively slow start against the Seattle Seahawks the 49ers offense really kicked things into high gear in quarterback Brock Purdy’s first game as a playoff starter. No knock on the overachieving Seahawks, but things won’t be quite as easy against the Cowboys defense, and particularly their pass rush led by Micah Parsons. There is some good news though, as the strength of the 49ers offensive line is with their tackles, which should somewhat counter the strength of the Cowboys pass rush. Of course, what would really slow down that rush is a steady dose of Christian McCaffrey and Eli Mitchell running the football. Make no mistake about it, if Kyle Shanahan can consistently grind things out on the ground in this game, he won’t even ask the passing game to do a whole lot. The first priority for the Cowboys defense needs to be slowing the ground game down and forcing the Niners to be a passing team. We know San Francisco has a healthy stable of weapons to throw to, and watch how they move Deebo Samuel around to get him favorable matchups. Dallas has patchworked the corner spot opposite of Trevon Diggs since the injury to Anthony Brown, and if Samuel can matchup with DaRon Bland they’ll look to exploit that. In reality, whoever is matching up with Bland will have an opportunity, including the quietly productive Brandon Aiyuk. The one player who does have a tough matchup is tight end George Kittle. The Cowboys have put the clamps on most of the tight ends they’ve faced, so the friendly security target for Brock Purdy may not be available in this game. Ultimately, the 49ers want to continue to put Purdy in a good position to be successful. If he continues to take care of the football, San Francisco will have a chance for another explosive offensive performance.

KEY STATS:
– The 49ers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games
– The 49ers have won 10 games straight up in a row
– The 49ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games
– The Cowboys are 6-2 straight up in their last 8 games vs. the 49ers

PUBLIC MONEY: – San Francisco 49ers 64%

Much like in the Bills and Bengals game, a good football team will be going home after this game. The Cowboys have been up and down all year, and that corresponds a lot with the play of quarterback Dak Prescott. Will he be able to continue his electric play that we saw against the Buccaneers, or will he revert to making mistakes and missing open throws? One thing is for sure, the challenge will be tougher against this 49ers defense, and the matchup in the trenches on both sides will be brutal. If you’ve followed the BetCrushers, you’re well aware we’ve been betting this 49ers team since Jimmy Garoppolo was the starter, and haven’t stopped through Brock Purdy. For our money, they’ve been holding down the top spot in our power rankings, and a matchup at home against an inconsistent team is enough for us to back them. Hopefully you bet this early and got the key number at minus three, but even at minus four we’re still playing them. And if for whatever reason the Bengals and Bills don’t deliver an awesome performance for the viewing public, the Cowboys and 49ers could pick up the slack. In a hard fought game, we’ll take the home team.

BetCrushers Lean: San Francisco 49ers -4
San Francisco 49ers 27, Dallas Cowboys 20

WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:

If you enjoy great football, many analysts believe that this is the best weekend of the entire year in the NFL. All of the teams left in the tournament play at a high level, and the stars will certainly be out in all of the matchups. The betting angles for the Divisional Round are not quite as beautiful in our estimation though. As a result we’re slimmer than normal for our playoff picks, as we simply don’t want to force something that isn’t there.