Previous Week Plays – 4-2
Season Record – 52-45-1
Previous Week Props – 8-3
Season Record Props – 87-53
Divisional Round Recap:
The divisional round was pretty good to us, as has been the case for four straight seasons as handicapping can be a little easier when you know teams have to win. There will always be the “could of and would of” scenarios, but realistically we were close to a 6-0 sweep with our plays and 10-1 with our player prop bets. The way things fell, we ended up 4-2 with our plays and 8-3 with our player props, so still pretty nice overall. Our two losses on plays were the Ravens first half -6.5 and the over in the 49ers and Packers game. The Ravens could have covered but the Texans punt return in the 2nd quarter doomed that. And all we needed was Anders Carlsen not to miss his FG and that game would have gone over as well. As far as our prop bet losses. We missed on Patrick Mahomes rushing yards. This would have cashed, but he took four knees at the end of halves which put him back under. We had Christian McCaffrey over 129.5 total yards and he finished with 128. And Amon-Ra St. Brown had a nice game, but didn’t get over his total. If you want to check all the winners, please feel free to refer back to last week’s article or hit us up on X at @theBetCrushers and we’ll gladly tell you all about them!
Championship Round Preview:
The Final four in the NFL is set with a pair of familiar faces and a couple of new entrants to the party. The AFC features the Chiefs making their sixth consecutive visit to this stage of the season under Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. They’ll face off against the number one seed Baltimore Ravens, who took care of the upstart Texans after a first round bye. In the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers find themselves one game away from the Super Bowl again, and will host the Detroit Lions, who handled the Buccaneers in a raucous home victory in the divisional round. The home teams and top seeds open as favorites, but these games are anything but slam dunks for the heavyweights. There are some different betting ways to play these teams, our thoughts are below.
AFC Championship Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
AFC heavyweights take the stage as as former MVP Patrick Mahomes leads the Chiefs into Baltimore to take on MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The Chiefs knocked off the Bills in a tight road matchup, while the Ravens cruised to a victory over the Texans at home. Even during a tough stretch earlier in the season, the Chiefs believed they’d be in this position yet again, and it could be the Ravens who have more to prove in their first trip to the conference finals since 2012. The quarterbacks will receive the spotlight as they always do, but it could be the team who can step up defensively that moves their team on to the Super Bowl.
THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:
As the playoffs have progressed we’ve broken down these offenses at length so this may be a bit repetitive, but each matchup against an opposing defense will always be different. The Chiefs enter this game playing better than they have all season offensively. In attempting to pinpoint why, there are a few things that really stick out. First, they are healthy and relatively as rested as you can be at this point in the year. Second, their offensive line, particularly their tackles are finally providing the protection they’ve needed, and finally, Andy Reid and Mahomes are doing their best work when it counts. When a team has success like the Chiefs, they don’t always pull out all the steps in the regular season. We saw some creativity from KC the last two weeks that really confused their opponents. They’ll undoubtedly be looking for a spark again, except it will be a little tougher to come by against the Ravens defense. Last weekend, you could tell the Bills defense played tense, and were trying to cover some key holes they had due to injuries. The Ravens will be aggressive, and force Mahomes and the Chiefs to do things they don’t necessarily want to do. Mainly this is throwing the ball into tight coverage. The Ravens pass defense is as good as we’ve seen in recent years, and the Chiefs simply don’t have the weapons at receiver, even with a good scheme to get open for Mahomes. Their ability to get a pass rush with four guys is huge, as they can play coverage, and still test Mahomes, particularly on the edges. The Chiefs also could be without All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, who will at the very least be playing banged up with a strained pectoral muscle he suffered at the end of their game last weekend. The engine that powers Mahomes is his sturdy interior on the line, and if Thuney isn’t 100% or can’t go, that is a huge hit against the likes of Michael Pierce and Broderick Washington. We mentioned the tackles who had been playing better, but Donovan Smith is absolutely overmatched against Jadeveon Clowney, who is playing some of the best ball he’s played in his career in this defense. The Chiefs will need to open up the passing game the traditional way, but establishing some sort of a running game with Isaiah Pacheco to get this offense moving. If the Ravens have a soft spot on defense, they can give up some plays in the running game, but they also tend to thrive against physical runners like Pacheco. There should be some serious hitting going on when Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen are squaring up with Pacheco. The Chiefs back is as physical and tough as they come, but he won’t be able to bully this defense. With Pacheco probably contained, that puts all the pressure on Patrick Mahomes and the passing game. If any quarterback can handle that pressure it’s Mahomes, but he’s going to need some help, and it’s tough to see where that will come from. The Ravens have been good at shutting down opposing tight ends and number one wide receivers. In KC terms that’s Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. If you stop Pacheco, Kelce and Rice, this offense stops as well. They may get Kadarius Toney back next week, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling did make a couple big catches last week, but realistically, they’re not scaring anyone. Patrick Mahomes may need to do more running on his own than he has all season to keep this offense moving. If that happens, look for Patrick Queen or possibly even strong safety Kyle Hamilton to play a hybrid-spy type position where they can still cover in zone but can keep tabs on Mahomes if he tries to escape the pocket.
THE BALTIMORE RAVENS ON OFFENSE:
On paper this Baltimore Ravens offense doesn’t look drastically different than it has over the last couple of seasons, with the exception of a better receiving group. It’s all about offensive coordinator Todd Monken and a healthy Lamar Jackson that has made this a more consistent and better unit. This will also be one of the toughest tests for the Ravens thus far as the Chiefs also boast one of the top defenses in the league, and especially against the pass. The Ravens offensive line has also been playing very well as their veterans are healthy and their experience has served them well all season long. As always, slowing down the Chiefs defensive line starts with keeping Chris Jones under control, something that won’t be easy. Jones was relatively quiet in their win last Sunday, but he showed up when it counted bull-rushing Dion Dawkins into Josh Allen and likely saving a go ahead touchdown before their missed field goal to tie. The area to watch when facing the Ravens is really the linebacker position, and those are often the players tasked with containing Lamar Jackson when he runs. Before we get to that, watch how edge rusher George Karlaftis maintains, or doesn’t maintain his lane integrity when he’s rushing the passer. He has a tendency to find himself up the field often, and if you do that against Lamar Jackson, he can crush you. The original game plan for the Chiefs versus the Bills was to have LB Willie Gay spying Josh Allen, but he left with an injury in the 2nd quarter. His status is unknown for the game, but this could be a huge spot for Drue Tranquill if he has to fill in this week. The Chiefs linebackers are pretty athletic, which will help a little with Jackson, however they can often get pushed around a little in the actual running game. Gus Edwards continues to be a lunch-pail kind of runner making defenses work to tackle him, and Justice Hill has really emerged as a good weapon after years of more backup or gadget use. The Ravens also managed to work in newly acquired Dalvin Cook for a few plays, and there is a very good chance he’ll see even a few more in this game. Throwing the ball on the Chiefs is challenging, however the Ravens may ironically be better suited than most teams to do just that against them. L’Jarius Sneed has been an eraser, and Trent McDuffie works great in the slot. The Ravens don’t necessarily have a true WR1 or slot player as their three receivers all move around the field a bit. Add in the fortunate return of tight end Mark Andrews to go with Isaiah Likely and Jackson can work around those two picking on more favorable matchups. As long as the Ravens don’t get behind early and can stay balanced, they should be able to stay in attack mode and not let defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo dictate the pressure at them.
KEY STATS:
– The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Chiefs are playing in the AFC Championship game for the 6th straight year
– The Chiefs are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. the Ravens
– The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games between the Chiefs and Ravens
THE SKINNY:
The early criticism of Lamar Jackson was valid as he simply didn’t play very well in his first playoff appearances. Did one good performance erase all doubt? Probably not for most people, but he is simply playing at a much higher level overall and just has command of this team. The Chiefs are going to make it difficult on him, but he should be able to use his legs to continue to carry this offense. More importantly, this is about defense for the Baltimore Ravens. The Chiefs had by far their best offensive performance of the year last week, which certainly gives them some momentum and confidence heading into this game. How much of that was “playoff Mahomes” versus exploiting some areas of a defense that had people literally off the couch trying to contain Travis Kelce and Isaiah Pacheco? Realistically, they’re just facing a completely different beast though against this Baltimore unit which is grading out as one of the top defenses of the last two decades. Both defenses will show up in this game, and even though Patrick Mahomes has proven to be the more clutch and complete player in his career, the Chiefs offense will simply be too limited here. We said it a week ago and we’ll say it again without being total conspiracy theorists. The league 100% would prefer Mahomes and the Swifties get to the Super Bowl, hence another very favorable refereeing assignment for this game. But even having to battle literally every obstacle, the Ravens are simply a better football team. This one will be close, but the Ravens squeak by and punch their ticket to Vegas.
BetCrushers Lean: Baltimore Ravens -3.5
Baltimore Ravens 23 , Kansas City Chiefs 18
NFC Championship Game
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
vs. 
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -1 (-110)
Over/Under 51 (-110)
The feel good Dan Campbell guided Detroit Lions head to the Bay area to tangle with the San Francisco 49ers in what has the potential to be a great football game. The 49ers expected to be in the mix when the season began, but not many people outside of Detroit believed the Lions were ready to challenge for a trip to the big game just yet. These teams have some similarities and some differences, and in a matchup of some great coaching minds, we should see some players put in a position to help their respective team win on Sunday.
THE DETROIT LIONS ON OFFENSE:
Depending on if you’re a glass half full or glass half empty type of person, this is either a fantastic matchup for the Lions offense against the 49ers or it’s a nightmare. Let’s start with the positives, and that begins with the offensive line and the blockers up front. If any team can go toe-to-toe with the 49ers defensive line it’s the Detroit Lions. They are solid all the way across the offensive line and absolute warriors in the trenches as we witnessed with Frank Ragnow in their win against the Buccaneers. The 49ers have a good defense, however when teams have been able to stay in games with them, they have been run on to the tune of 28th in rush defensive EPA. That’s hard to imagine with the front seven they have, but they’re very aggressive and at times can give up chunk runs. The earlier season loss of safety Talanoa Hufanga also hurts as his ability to run sideline to sideline was a huge plus for that secondary. San Francisco often plays nickel as well, which makes them a little smaller in the back end. If there is one thing that is not a mystery it’s that Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson want to be physical and run the football. David Montgomery will get his touches to deliver some punishment on the Niners front where he can, but it’s Jahmyr Gibbs, who is really coming on at the right time for this team who we’ll want to watch. Gibbs is as explosive as any running back in the league, and although he style is different, he has some Barry Sanders in him in the sense he can be held in check for a few plays, and then bust one for 40 yards at any given moment. San Francisco has to stay disciplined, particularly with their linebackers to limit the Lions number of explosive run plays. If this is a tight game throughout, the Lions are going to attempt to wear down the front of the 49ers and make them grind for a full sixty minutes. Now for the not-so great news for the Lions offensively. Jared Goff has been an amazing passer for them when he has time in the pocket. The challenge he’ll face here is when the Niners starting four defensive linemen, Bosa, Young, Hargrave and Armstead are in the lineup, they generate pressure at a ridiculous 2/3 clip of dropbacks. Goff goes from fantastic, to very mediocre and mistake prone when he’s facing pressure in the pocket. The difference in this football game is going to be whether or not the Lions can give Goff time to throw or whether he’s under heavy pressure. As long as they can keep the score close and keep the running game live, they have a good chance to give Goff enough time to be successful. In the passing game, Goff may also need to spread the ball around and not just rely on Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Teams have picked on the likes of corners Deommodore Lenoir and Ambry Thomas regularly, and if it’s Jameson Williams or Josh Reynolds with those matchups, he needs to take advantage of them.
THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ers ON OFFENSE:
Of the four remaining teams, handicapping the 49ers offense is presently the toughest one to project because we don’t know the status of Deebo Samuel entering this game. He’ll likely be questionable, and while our guess is he plays, how effective will he be if he’s not completely healthy? Even though Christian McCaffrey is the best player on this offense, Deebo is clearly the heartbeat, and tends to be the matchup finder who makes everyone else around him better. Like the Lions, the 49ers love running the football, and they’re going to give it a try no matter who their opponent is. The Lions were strong at stopping the run during the season allowing only 3.7 yards per carry, but Christian McCaffrey is as good as we have in the sport, and of course the zone blocking scheme helps too. The Lions definitely want to stop the run without having to commit extra help from their safeties, which means the success, or lack thereof McCaffrey has early on could dictate how the Lions play defensively. If the Lions are able to slow down CMC, look for him to be active as a receiver out of the backfield catching short swing passes and checkdowns. His receiving prop is definitely in play in this game as Kyle Shanahan will wear him out in an effort to get to the Super Bowl. Alex Anzalone will have a big responsibility in this game keeping McCaffrey close both when running and receiving. The 49ers offensive line is not quite as solid top to bottom as the Lions, but they can leave left tackle Trent Williams on an island, which should allow them to double and chip on edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who has ramped things up in the playoffs. Quarterback Brock Purdy has had a whirlwind of a season, going from MVP talk, to bust talk and back again. That all happened in one game last week as he struggled against the Packers before leading a gutsy drive that helped give them the lead and ultimately the win. With all of the weapons on the San Francisco offense, because of the way the Lions play defense, Purdy is the most important player for them in this game. He’s going to have opportunities to throw the ball downfield, and he has to make more throws than he misses, and not turn the ball over. The health and availability of Deebo Samuel becomes a factor again there as this team has matchup nightmares all over the place when he’s in the lineup. Jauan Jennings is a serviceable player, but doesn’t demand the respect Samuel does, and won’t take the pressure off of Brandon Aiyuk on the other side. George Kittle has been a valuable weapon as always, especially when it seems like Purdy isn’t sure what he wants to do with the ball, but the Lions have done a nice job against tight ends, so Kittle may not be that security throw he has been lately.
KEY STATS:
– The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games
– The Lions are 1-11 straight up in their last 12 games vs. the 49ers
– The 49ers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The 494rs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games
This really feels like it’s going to be a fun one between two teams that are looking to take the leap from good teams to great with a Super Bowl berth. It’s funny how in a game with so many stars on the field, and what many believe are “game manager” quarterbacks, that the most important position on the field is likely going to decide things in this one. Yes, we’ll see some great individual players on both sides of the ball, but who is going to do that extra for their team to get them the victory? More specifically, which quarterback is going to take care of the ball, and make the plays that are there in the passing game? Then there are those side questions we’ll be examining during and after the game. Which of these great coordinators did more to help his team be successful? Did homefield advantage play a factor against a visiting team that is used to playing in a dome behind a recently rowdy and energized crowd? Will the psyche of either of these teams losing histories (the Lions for decades, the Niners in the Championship game) impact their play overall? We’re planning on a game similar to what we saw a week ago when Green Bay came to town, just a little heavier based on the run for the Lions. We made a living betting on the 49ers during the season, and everything is set up for them to punch their ticket to Vegas and the big game, but this spread is simply too high. The Lions have fought hard all season, and that won’t change here. They may not have enough to get them all the way there, but they’re going to make this a close football game.
BetCrushers Lean: Detroit Lions +7
San Francisco 49ers 26, Detroit Lions 22
WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:
Compared to the divisional round it’s a pretty light Sunday of action. That’ll happen when you only have a pair of games to choose from. We still opted to find a couple of plays and some prop bets we want to get some action down on. These both have the potential to be great games, so enjoy them. Best of luck with all of your wagers, we’ll see you for a Super Bowl preview soon!
