Previous Week Plays – 3-0
Season Record – 47-43-1

Divisional Round Recap:

For the third consecutive season we managed to sweep our Divisional Round plays going 3-0 with our officially posted plays, and correctly projecting the results against the spread. We won’t take a big victory lap there however, as our overall season mark still leaves plenty to be desired. Our favorite play was the Philadelphia Eagles as we had them -7.5 and in a teaser with the Kansas City Chiefs. Even with Patrick Mahomes missing some time with his sprained ankle both of those wagers got home fairly easily. Our other official wager was the San Francisco 49ers -4, which we were playing despite not having the key number of three at the time of our article. The Niners were in a battle with the Cowboys throughout, but did enough on both sides of the ball to get the win and the cover, and another trip to the NFC Championship game. We didn’t have an official bet on the Jaguars and Chiefs or Bengals and Bills games, however we leaned taking the points with both, and each did in fact cover.

Championship Round Preview:

And then there were four… The Championship round looks pretty similar to how it was a season ago, with three of the four teams making a repeat performance. The Philadelphia Eagles are the new arrivers, and in joining the 49ers, Chiefs and Bengals, it’s truly wide open heading into Sunday. One thing is very apparent as we’ve watched the playoffs unfold, as well as who is advancing, and that is coaching matters in the NFL. In looking for an edge a coaching staff can sometimes swing a fairly even matchup in one direction or the other, but good luck figuring it out in these games. All four coaching staffs are sharp, and you can almost guarantee they’ll do everything they can to put their players in the best positions to win. The more obvious thing to note is quarterback play is always paramount in determining the success of a team, at least on offense. The AFC leaves little to question, yet the NFC features two youngsters who can make their respective mark on the game with how they play this weekend. The spreads for both of these games opened pretty tight, and have shifted slightly, lining these up to be two potentially great football games. We’ve got some thoughts below on each contest and who we expect to come out with the victories.

NFC Championship Game

San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

vs.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)

If you’re an old school football fan who loves a good battle of the big men in the trenches, then this might be the game for you. The powerful offensive and defensive lines for the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles will collide in what is sure to be a hard fought contest for the NFC crown. Don’t tune out though if you want some explosive play in addition to a physical style, as both teams have plenty of weapons to make this game exciting. The NFC Championship game isn’t really a matchup of offense versus defense, it’s a matchup of two very complete football teams.

THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ers ON OFFENSE:

You never want to make too much about one specific game, however this game could likely determine the immediate future of 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. The rookie has been beyond good taking up for the injured Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo, and all signs point to this kid being their QB of the future, as well as the present. He had his toughest game so far in a gutsy win against the Cowboys, but it certainly wasn’t all smooth sailing. The Philadelphia Eagles will present a similar challenge with a couple of added nuggets, interior pressure and a home crowd advantage. The 49ers offensive line is anchored by their tackles, and we can assume Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey can hold their own against Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat. The interior of the line is really going to be where the difference lies in this matchup. Can the middle of the 49ers line hold up against a five man rotation of very capable run stuffers and pass rushers? As poised as Purdy has looked, this will be the first time he could see pressure in the pocket and off of the edges. As we discussed a week ago regarding the run defense for the Eagles, with their rotation healthy, this group can really shut opposing ground games down. Christian McCaffrey is the ultimate weapon, but he may have to do his work as a receiver if they can’t establish a lot on the ground. It’s worth noting McCaffrey had a slight calf tweak in their win last week, and although it sounds as though it’s not serious, anything with a running back can be impactful. It’s not just the potential pass rush that could stymie Purdy in this game, the cornerbacks for the Eagles are as good as it gets across the league. We’ve seen Brandon Aiyuk put up career numbers this year, and we all know what Deebo Samuel can do, but the question is, can Purdy get them the ball? One of the things that makes this Niners offense so potent is their ability to attack from all sorts of angles. If the Eagles are able to slow down some of the speedsters, this could be a spot where George Kittle is able to remind everyone why he has been a Pro Bowler player in the past. Philadelphia hasn’t been great defending tight ends this year, and Kittle himself has had a pair of big games against this Eagles offense. Don’t be surprised if he gets a lot of looks, especially if Purdy is under pressure. One other note here that could play a factor, is 49ers kicker Robbie Gould has been as clutch as it gets, never missing a kick in the postseason. If this game comes down to the kickers, you know San Francisco will like their chances there.

THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES ON OFFENSE:

We didn’t have to wait long in the game versus the Giants, to find out if the Eagles offense would need some time to get things together. The Eagles moved the ball almost effortlessly, mixing in runs and passes to multiple receivers, and leaving the Giants defense looking for answers. The 49ers defense is substantially better than what the Eagles faced a week ago, yet there is reason to believe the Eagles should still find some success. For starters, the Eagles offensive line is the best in the entire league, and that alone should help slow down the fierce push of the San Francisco defensive line. Nick Bosa and company are too good to not cause some havoc throughout the game, but don’t expect the same disruptive performance that we’ve seen in most weeks by them. When you break down the 49ers dominance on defense, it all starts with their ability to shut down opposing running games. That might be a problem for some teams, but that shouldn’t be a huge issue for the Eagles, as they really don’t need to run the ball to be successful. When the box score is final, you can almost bet that Jalen Hurts will be the leader in rushing yards, as his ability to get out of the pocket on designed runs and scrambles is unmatched within the four remaining teams in the playoffs. Of course all of this discussion about running is really wasted commentary when you examine how to beat the stout 49ers defense. Even with a great pass rush, this secondary has given up a lot of big plays in the passing game, particularly to high level receivers. The Eagles just so happen to have a pair of those in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, as well as an underrated tight end in Dallas Goedert. With the Niners needing to keep an eye on Hurts, expect to see Brown and Smith up the sidelines and some shots taken into single coverage.

KEY STATS:
– The 49ers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games for the 49ers
– The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The total has gone under in 4 of the last 5 games for the Eagles

PUBLIC MONEY: – Philadelphia Eagles 59%

THE SKINNY:
If you’re one of those people who like to examine recent trends, you’ll notice the 49ers are heading into this game a lot hotter than the Eagles. We’ve been riding the 49ers train for quite a while now, but it’s always a good goal to know when it’s time to jump off the ride. This should be a really good football game as we mentioned above between two pretty evenly matched teams overall. Ultimately, the Brock Purdy magical run seems like it will come to an end in Philadelphia, as there is just too much stacked against him and this team. Yes, the Niners have the best overall defense, but this Eagles offense can score on anyone. Jalen Hurts mobility will play a big factor in the difference in this game, and despite the poise of Purdy and the 49ers, don’t discount how big homefield advantage can be here. This spread moved quickly from Philadelphia -1 to -2.5, but since we’re still under the key number of 3, it’s still worth playing the home team.

BetCrushers Lean: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles 26, San Francisco 49ers 19

AFC Championship Game

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

vs.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Cincinnati Bengals -1 (-110)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)

In the young careers of Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes, it’s been the Cincinnati Bengals who have gotten the better of the Chiefs, as they’ll begin another chapter of this new rivalry on Sunday. The Bengals have been road warriors, and proved a season ago they can take out the Chiefs on their home turf. Meanwhile, Kansas City has some question marks heading into this meeting, particularly around the health of quarterback Patrick Mahomes. A healthy KC team can hand anyone a loss, but if the Chiefs are limited, will that open the door for a second straight Super Bowl appearance for the Bengals?

THE CINCINNATI BENGALS ON OFFENSE:

It’s difficult to think back to a team that seems so comfortable playing on the road in hostile environments. Not even Brady’s Patriot teams seemed so poised when they were in loud stadiums against good football teams. The Bengals will once again put their road mojo to the test going into what will be a fired up Arrowhead Stadium, potentially seeing some snow for the second week in a row. The Bengals offense was a precise machine a week ago dicing up the Bills defense for over 30 first downs, and completely controlling the time of possession and ultimately the game. They did this by owning the offensive line of scrimmage, something that many people felt would be their demise. It’s still unknown who they will and won’t have available on their line for this meeting with KC, but they have to feel good about how their backups, in particular left tackle Jackson Carman played in their forced starts. It won’t be quite as easy against the Chiefs however for a couple of reasons. First, the Chiefs have veteran rushers that can take advantage of young and backup caliber players, primarily Chris Jones and Frank Clark. Second, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is going to play a lot of tight coverage and force Burrow to make some tougher throws down the field. With Burrow averaging less than 2.5 seconds to throw, sitting back soft results in what we saw a week ago, and is something the Chiefs will absolutely not allow to happen. The good news for the Bengals would be they do have guys like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who can absolutely win some one-on-one shots downfield. Cincinnati has also quietly worked tight end Hayden Hurst into being a really valuable weapon over the middle. In studying why the Bengals have had recent success against the Chiefs, it’s clear that Joe Burrow will absolutely decimate a constant blitz, which is what Spagnuolo and Chiefs are known for. Can the Chiefs adjust that strategy enough, or will they stay true to what they want to do on that side of the ball? We also didn’t forget about Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, two very capable running backs who could play a big factor against an up and down Chiefs run defense, especially if the weather is poor. The key to this game for Cincinnati is very similar to a week ago, get the ball out quick, and cover up for those inexperienced offensive linemen.

THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:

The Kansas City Chiefs can light up any team on offense… As long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy. Here rests perhaps the biggest factor and question in this game. How much of an impact will the ankle sprain of Mahomes have on his ability to move around in the pocket, plant and throw, and even scramble? And the deeper question would be, if Mahomes is limited in any of those ways, can the Chiefs still move the football and put up points against an underrated Bengals defense? For the purpose of this handicap, we’re going to assume Mahomes is able to play near full capacity, and work our way from there. The good news for the Chiefs, they boast a very solid offensive line, which will have their hands full against the very good defensive line of the Bengals. It won’t quite be the battle between the Eagles/49ers, but this will be a physical matchup for sure. Last week, Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo was able to confuse the protection schemes of the Bills by disguising blitzes and bringing pressure late. That formula may not work as well against Mahomes, both because of his experience in seeing this before, and his strong protection. Mahomes is going to have to carry the load throwing the football though, as the Bengals have been good at stopping the run when they’ve had their front four healthy. Although Andy Reid has leaned on Isiah Pacheco a bit down the stretch, don’t expect him to be a big factor in this game. Jerick McKinnon figures to be the more valuable back as he’s likely to draw a lot of targets in the passing game. The Bengals will no doubt put some focus on slowing down Travis Kelce, something the Jaguars apparently didn’t feel they needed to do, but that’s not to suggest Kelce still won’t be a big factor. He’s plays his best in big moments, and the Bengals have allowed some tight ends to play well against them. The real matchups to watch are the Chiefs wide receivers versus the defensive backs of the Bengals. Cincinnati is aggressive in their secondary, and that can be a really good thing, or it can cause some damage if they’re not careful. All of this brings us back to Patrick Mahomes. He has a tough matchup at full strength in this game, and one can only wonder how he’ll fair if he’s hobbled at all with that ankle sprain?

KEY STATS:
– The Bengals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games
– The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the Chiefs
– The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Chiefs are 5-0 straight up in their last 5 home games

PUBLIC MONEY: – Cincinnati Bengals 76%

It would seem like the unknown status of Patrick Mahomes ankle would make this game tougher to place a wager on. In reality, it helps us solidify our position on the Cincinnati Bengals, who we would back even if Mahomes is 100% healthy. Yes, the public is hammering the Bengals after their strong showing in Buffalo, but the fact of the matter is, this is a better football team. The Bengals have grown as a team and as a coaching staff, and they are one of the few teams that can match wits with guys like Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo. As we mentioned above, Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense is simply not a good matchup for the way the Chiefs have to play defense. Unless the Chiefs can force some turnovers through the patchwork Bengals offensive line, it’s tough to picture them doing enough to stop Cincinnati. With Mahomes likely limited in some capacity, and without a big running game, it’s asking a lot to attack this Bengals defense. Expect this to be a hard fought game that may take the full sixty minutes to decide, but the Bengals domination over the Mahomes led Chiefs will take them back to their second straight Super Bowl.

BetCrushers Lean: Cincinnati Bengals -1
Cincinnati Bengals 23, Kansas City Chiefs 20

WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:

We’re rolling with the favorites and an under for Championship Weekend. Best of luck with all of your wagers, we’ll see you for a Super Bowl preview soon!