With everything that has happened throughout the world since the middle of March this may be the most exciting early NFL breakdown we’ve ever completed. The bulk of free agency has now passed, as has the league’s very first virtual draft as teams and fans alike are looking ahead to the start of the NFL season. Of course the big question still floating out there is whether or not there will actually be an NFL season or what that season might potentially look like? As bettors we’re going to play the role of optimists for the sake of this article and assume that the league will be able to take shape and some normalcy will return to the world of sports.
You may be wondering what happens if you place a futures bet on win totals if the season is abbreviated or cancelled? In simple terms it depends on the book that you’re utilizing, but reputable sportsbooks will have verbiage that would cancel your wager if the season isn’t played in full. The bottome line is there is very minimal risk should you decide to place a futures win total bet. The more relevant discussion is whether or not it makes sense to place one of these wagers now based upon what has happened in the offseason or is it wise to wait until closer to the start of the season to account for any further player movements or potential injuries? The BetCrushers season preview of each team and division will be released in August, but we do find it prudent to share some thoughts on the early released win totals. Let’s start by taking a look at what each team’s projected over/under win total is below:
Early NFL Over/Under Win Totals
There are a handful of interesting numbers when you really look closely, however these are pretty typical numbers to start a year when you review how teams finished in the previous season. There will almost certainly be a team winning 13+ games and a team winning less than 4, the trick is trying to decipher which teams those will be. Or, you can dig deep in finding the smaller margin wins, which might be more certain despite the lesser margin for error. As is the case with most future bets, the overs tend to get hammered so as a general rule, you may want to lean towards the unders unless you find something you really love. Don’t forget a key injury can crush an over as well (see our Steelers over win total bet last season with the injury to Ben Roethlisberger).
As we look towards the 2020 season and win total futures there are three main areas we want to look into. First, which teams really improved themselves from a year ago and who may fall backwards? The common term we hear is “who won the offseason?”. Second, which teams had substantial movement in their totals after free agency and probably more importantly again after the draft? A team can absolutely help itself during the draft process, but should a “strong” or “poorly” rated draft really move a teams win total up a game or down a game? And finally, which teams are benefitting from public hype and are possibly overrated heading into the season? We’re going to break down a few of the more interesting teams and totals as we head towards what we hope will be mini-camps.
Teams Making Headlines
New England Patriots
For the first time since the 2000 season the New England Patriots are not the favorites to win the AFC East and coincidingly have their lowest win total set at just 9.5. There is plenty of uncertainty in New England as their current QB room consists of Jarrett Stidham and journeyman Brian Hoyer. Cam Newton is rumored to be in the mix, but for the first time in two decades the position is potentially a weakness rather than a strength. The exodus didn’t end with TB12 as some key members of their stout defense from last year also left via free agency, most notably Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins who were both productive and leaders on that side of the ball. A lot of sharps have been pounding the over for New England seeing value with Bill Belichick and assuming an overreaction to their total. Be wary if you choose to do so. The Patriots are lined up to only be favored in 7 games at this point so with a total set at 9.5 they’re going to need to greatly beat expectations and potentially pull off some upsets. While the AFC East is still not an elite division, the Bills, Jets and Dolphins should all be improved from a year ago and with matchups against the stacked NFC West, we’re leaning towards an under play. Could the Patriots really be a sub .500 team in 2020?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Speaking of the departed New England quarterback, bringing in a 6-time Super Bowl Champion will do a lot to raise expectations to record levels, which is where they are right now in Tampa Bay. The Bucs are banking on the league’s most accomplished QB having enough left in his right arm to guide them back into the playoffs and possibly further. He’ll have the help of his trusty tight end Rob Gronkowski who might also be running on fumes in an effort to make one more Super Bowl run. The trendy picks early on have been to fade the Buccaneers as the addition of the aging Brady and Gronkowski may have set unrealistic expecations. Before you auto-fade this team, take a real close look at their roster as a whole as Bruce Arians has a pretty stacked lineup to go to battle with. This team will go as far as Brady’s arm can take them, so it’s going to be boom or bust with this very talented team.
Cleveland Browns
Before the 2019 season the Cleveland Browns were the most hyped up team in the league after what was thought to be a good offseason and in typical Cleveland fashion fell flat on their face with their season ending a week after Myles Garrett used his helmet as a boxing glove against the Steelers. The Browns have once again been crowned as one of the top performing teams in free agency and the draft, although it’s a lot quieter the second go around. Maybe the lesser expectations are what this team needs to finally break through? The Browns did nice work upgrading their offensive line with the addition of Jack Conklin via free agency at right tackle and drafting Jedrick Wills to protect Baker Mayfield. With the weapons surrounding Mayfield and a revamped offensive line this could be a make or break season for the young QB. The defense is still a little bit of a question mark although getting Garrett back will be huge along with potentially upgrading the safety position with the drafting of Grant Delpit out of LSU. 8.5 wins seems like a number the Browns will actually top this season, but don’t forget they’re playing in what is possibly the best division in football outside of the NFC West.
Green Bay Packers
By our accounts the Green Bay Packers overachieved a little bit last year, or perhaps we were just wrong on how good of a team that they actually were. Either way, they’ll be looking to repeat as division champs returning a team that most experts have ranked as having one of, if not the worst offseasons of any team. Their draft was ridiculed and the team failed to substantially boost the weapons around Aaron Rodgers or on the defensive side of the ball. Prior to the draft the Packers win total was set at 9.5 and immediately dropped to 8.5. Was not drafting a wide receiver early in the draft enough to take an entire W off of the books? Anything is possible, but this looks like a value play based upon an overreaction by the media. When you look at their schedule it looks pretty likely that they can grab 8 wins. The question with the Pack is whether or not they find a 9th win in there to go over the threshold and cash? There’s not a lot of margin for error but the early lean here is to play the over and assume the Packers can get to a 9 win mark.
Dallas Cowboys
To the dismay of Philadelphia Eagle fans, the Dallas Cowboys absolutely aced the draft, at least on paper. As an organization that is normally hyped up by both the public and the media the pitch is at a recent high as this team looks like they’re going to be a matchup nightmare for defenses under new head coach Mike McCarthy. We’ll assume that the offense will consistently move the ball and put up points, so the real question is do they have enough on the defensive side of the ball, or are they going to try to just outscore their opponents each week? As a team that tends to underachieve and is rarely as good as they’re made out to be the 9.5 win total seems to make sense. The schedule looks daunting with some of the league’s top teams and some tough road matchups, but this is a team that should win 4-5 games within their division putting them halfway there.
The BetCrushers Early Win Total Play
As we referenced earlier in the article we’ll play several team win totals as it gets closer to the regular season, but we have one play that we are locking in right away. It hasn’t been a quite offseason by any stretch for the Baltimore Ravens, yet they seem to be somewhat flying under the radar, no pun intended. Here’s what we know about the Ravens heading into the 2020 campaign:
Their MVP quarterback has a year of experience under his belt and should be able to play at a similar level to what made him the talk of the league in 2019. They added rookie J.K. Dobbins to team with Mark Ingram keeping this running attack both fast and powerful. Their defense came on strong towards the end of last season and it should be vastly improved with their free agent additions Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe on the defensive line and potential stud rookie linebacker Patrick Queen who fell right in their lap in the first round. The team was also able to franchise pass rushing outside linebacker Matthew Judon and re-signed Jimmy Smith at the cornerback position keeping a deep and talented group in tact with Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters. The signing of D.J. Fluker on the offensive line helps ease the loss of perennial Pro Bowl guard Marshal Yanda.
This team literally ran through the league a year ago and there isn’t anything that makes it appear like they won’t do the same again in 2020. Their schedule actually looks very favorable and while they’ll have some divisional battles with the Steelers, Browns and an improved Bengals team, they look like a legitimately solid 13-3 team.
A marker of 11 wins is a high total that we had to really research before decidely locking in this pick. Let us be clear on this pick: We only see one path to the Ravens not getting to at least 11 wins for the push and ultimately to 12 to cash and that is if quarterback Lamar Jackson misses substantial time in the lineup. Yes, with his style of play that is certainly possible, however if injury is the only thing that we believe would derail this team from a 12+ win season, we’ll take those odds all day long. See you in the playoffs Baltimore.
BetCrushers Pick:
Baltimore Ravens – OVER 11 wins
The BetCrushers are dedicated to finding value in sports betting and are anxiously awaiting the return of sports worldwide. Have any thoughts on NFL win totals feel free to send us a message and let us know. Follow us on Twitter @TheBetCrushers
