ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -250
New Orleans Saints +310
Carolina Panthers +900
Atlanta Falcons +3500
The odds for the NFC South shifted dramatically when Tom Brady un-retired in the offseason, and decided to take another shot with a bit of a new look Tampa Bay Buccaneer team. A pair of new quarterbacks in Atlanta and Carolina will join a returning Jameis Winston, in an effort to dethrone the reigning champs in Tampa. Despite owning the greatest quarterback of all-time, the NFC South is a bit of a throwback division. There are some heavy hitting defenses and game-breaking running backs, making this a unique setup. This division may be one of the weaker in the league, but there is plenty of interest and betting opportunities if you look hard enough.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2021 Record – 13-4
2021 Record Against the Spread – 10-9
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) Julio Jones, (OG) Shaq Mason, (WR) Russell Gage, (DE) Logan Hall
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(OG) Alex Kappa, (C) Ryan Jensen, (TE) Rob Gronkowski, (TE) O.J. Howard, (RB) Ronald Jones, (S) Jordan Whitehead
Repeating as Super Bowl champions is not an easy feat, and something that the Buccaneers learned first hand in 2021. If any team would have known what it takes, it would have been this one, as their quarterback knows a little bit about playing in the big game. Tom Brady’s decision to return, presumably had to do with not only his passion for the game, but also his belief that the Buccaneers were still close enough to to contending for yet another Super Bowl title. The offseason was a little bumpy, and resulted in the departure of head coach Bruce Arians and promotion of Todd Bowles as the new head man. The roster looks pretty familiar to their 2020 unit, however there is one potential trouble spot that needs some further evaluation.
For yet another year, at age 45, Tom Brady will look to fend off “Father Time” and guide this team back to the playoffs. Brady has shown no signs of slowing down physically, so one would have to assume he’ll be able to orchestrate the offense with his usual efficiency. As he did last season, he will lean on Leonard Fournette in the running game and short passing game. The team also is high on youngster Rachaad White, who could be a surprising contributor if he can earn the trust of Brady and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. Brady’s top two targets return in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the latter seemingly on track from his knee injury to return early in the season. The team also added free agent Russell Gage, and brought over former perennial Pro Bowler Julio Jones as an added weapon. Jones has struggled to stay healthy the previous two seasons, and it’s hard to know how much he has left to give, but he could prove to be a valuable addition. The team will need some extra production from somewhere as Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski leave two pretty big holes heading into the year. Cameron Brate and veteran Kyle Rudolph will attempt to piece together some of the slack, although they certainly don’t provide the mismatches that Gronk would in the passing game. All of this sounds pretty nice for the prospects of this offense, with one really big and glaring exception. The offensive line, which was one of the best in the league, has a couple of pretty big question marks on the interior. Guard Alex Cappa departed via free agency, and center Ryan Jensen is out indefinitely, leaving unproven Robert Hainsey and Luke Goedeke protecting the middle of the line. Normally when a team has questions offensively, it rests with the quarterback position. That’s clearly not the case here, as the how well the offensive line plays will determine how potent the offense for the Bucs’ can be.
The breakdown of the defense for the Buccaneers is almost a carbon copy from our season preview from a year ago. The front seven will again be strength of the unit and needs to dominate to protect the secondary. Akiem Hicks was brought over to replace Ndamukong Suh and pair with Vita Vea to once again provide one of the top interior run defenses in the league. Always underrated veteran Lavonte David and Devin White provide versatility, and will shore of the middle of the defense. The pass rush still has linebacker Shaquil Barrett, and is hopeful that second year rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka can provide a compliment on the opposite side. The secondary is once again thin, as the team is sticking with Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting on the corners. If the secondary can stay healthy, particularly the corners, the front seven should do enough to make this a capable unit.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 25th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 11.5 Wins (over +100, under -120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-7
In a wide-open NFC, the Buccaneers are still a team that has a legitimate shot to grab one of the top seeds when it gets to be playoff time. It helps that they play in a pretty soft division, although they have certainly had their struggles with the Saints. There’s really still a lot to like about this team, but something just doesn’t seem right heading into the season. The coaching change, a weird offseason for TB12, and most critically, some holes in the offensive line throw up some red flags for us. Throughout his career, Brady has navigated pass rushes that come from the outside with his great pocket presence. When he’s dealing with people in his face and around his legs is where he has had his struggles. If the interior of the Bucs’ O-line isn’t able to hold their ground, things could get rough for Brady and the offense. Based on their schedule, and giving Brady the benefit of the doubt, we’re still going to pencil them in for 11 wins, although the floor could be a lot lower.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread, Teasers
With matchups against lesser opponents, it’s very possible that this team can really have some blowouts. Even if they’re laying big points at home, it’s going to be worth a shot to be a little chalky. In that same breath, getting TB through key numbers should be as close to a sure thing as you can have most weekend.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Leonard Fournette (RB), Cameron Brate (TE)
At some point the world is going to need to recognize the fact that Leonard Fournette is a fantasy football star. Not only is he a solid runner, he doesn’t lose touches around the goal line, something that many of the running backs in the league do. Most notably, he is going to catch a ton of passes out of the backfield from Brady this season, making him a PPR must draft. Another player on our radar is tight end veteran tight end Cameron Brate. His production should skyrocket without Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard on the roster. It wouldn’t be shocking if Brate became a key red zone and third down target in the offense.
Atlanta Falcons
2021 Record – 7-10
2021 Record Against the Spread – 6-10-1
KEY ADDITIONS:
(QB) Marcus Mariota, (RB) Damien Williams, (WR) Drake London, (QB) Desmond Ridder
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(QB) Matt Ryan, (LB) Dante Fowler, (S) Duron Harmon, (TE) Hayden Hurst, (WR) Russell Gage
A new era is underway in Atlanta as the team will begin its first season with Matt Ryan as their quarterback since he was drafted in 2008. Every fan hates to hear the term rebuild, yet that is exactly what is happening with the Falcons. Second year head coach Arthur Smith has the unenviable task of taking a new quarterback, and a young roster that is lacking talent at many key positions, and trying to win games. Atlanta has some exciting young players and will be heading in the right direction, it’s just going to be a little ugly on the way there.
The Falcons first move in replacing Matt Ryan was to bring in dual-threat veteran Marcus Mariota as their starting quarterback. Mariota should give them a calm leadership presence and keep them competitive, even if he won’t light it up and win a bunch of games. The question here is actually how much of the season with Mariota play, especially if the Falcons win-loss record isn’t looking great? Rookie Desmond Ridder has impressed in the preseason and we’d have to imagine the team would like to see if he’s a viable option for the future. Of course, no matter who is behind center, it’s going to be a bit of a challenge with this offense. On the plus side the team was able to bring back Cordarelle Patterson, who gives them an athletic playmaker and some options with Mariota out of the backfield. And the biggest piece of their rebuild rests with second year tight end Kyle Pitts who showed exactly why he was so highly regarded coming out of the University of Florida. Unfortunately, the team still has not been able to solidify an offensive line, and the year long suspension of Calvin Ridley leaves them with arguably the worst wide receiver room in the entire league. They did draft Drake London who they believe can be a number one guy for them down the road, and he may end up being that in his rookie season.
Critics will point to the fact that the Falcons defense has been pretty poor over the past few seasons, and they wouldn’t be wrong in suggesting so. The Falcons are hopeful some new additions and younger speed can help elevate the group as a whole, but it’s a vastly unproven group from top to bottom. Grady Jarrett will once again anchor the defensive line, which helps everyone around him. He’s not an unknown talent by any stretch, but he is very much underrated at the position. The linebackers each have their niche with Deion Jones holding down the middle and newcomer Rashaan Evans flanking him. The strength of this defense is in their secondary, and in particular their cornerbacks. A.J. Terrell played as well as any corner in the league and will be entering his prime in what could be a really good career. On the other side, Casey Hayward just continues to play good football no matter where he ends up. The Falcons are high on safety Jaylinn Hawkins and hope that he and Richie Grant can round out a nice defensive backfield. This defense offers some Pro Bowl talent with Jarrett and Terrell, however it’s difficult to see coordinator Dean Pees being able to make this a stout unit with some of the glaring holes they have.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 10th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 5 Wins (over +125, under -145)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 4-13
Somewhere along the way the Atlanta Falcons are going to sneak up and upset a good football team during the 2022 season. It’s going to be tough sledding overall though, as they simply don’t have enough talent on either side of the ball to consistently win football games. Going into next year, if they can keep guys like Pitts, Terrell, and London together, they can start to really build something. For this year though, it appears the Falcons will be battling to not be one of the bottom three teams in the league.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
We’re certainly not looking to load up on the Atlanta Falcons anytime soon in making our wagers. With that being said, fading this team when they’re playing on the road seems like it could result in some consistent money. Young teams that lack talent can occasionally play competitively and win at home, it’s usually on the road where they really struggle. Even if a superior team is laying a pretty hefty number at home against them, we’ll be looking to fade them.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Drake London (WR)
Kyle Pitts is a top five fantasy tight end and Cordarelle Patterson offers the most explosive upside for the Falcons. The truth of the matter is we’re probably steering clear of everyone on this offense during this season. The player that is intriguing is wide receiver Drake London who could see a lot of targets as a rookie and despite having a really low floor, also has a really high ceiling. We’re not advising rostering the youngster just yet, simply mentioning that we’ll be keeping an eye on him.
Carolina Panthers
2021 Record – 5-12
2021 Record Against the Spread – 5-12
KEY ADDITIONS:
(QB) Baker Mayfield, (OG) Austin Corbett, (S) Xavier Woods, (LB) Cory Littleton, (OT) Ikem Ekwonu
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(CB) Stephon Gilmore, (OT) Trent Scott, (LB) Haason Reddick
Another new quarterback will be at the helm when the Panthers take the field for week one of the 2022 season. After being unceremoniously shipped out of Cleveland, Baker Mayfield has a new opportunity to prove he’s a franchise QB in Joe Brady’s offense in Carolina. Last season saw the Panthers struggle mightily en route to an unimpressive 5-12 win/loss record and against the spread. Were the Panthers really that bad or was it just the missing piece at quarterback that was the source of their pain? Much of their roster returns heading into this year, so it really is up to Mayfield to elevate the team if they’re going to be successful.
The BetCrushers have been critical of Baker Mayfield since his second season as we believe he can only be a good player if he’s surrounded by really great talent. The good news for Panther fans is that there is enough core talent on this offense for Mayfield to play well. The offensive line isn’t quite what he played behind in Cleveland, however drafting big left tackle Ikem Ekwonu and bringing over free agent guard Austin Corbett sure helps. His receivers are good, headed by D.J. Moore and Robbie Anderson, with his former teammate Rashard Higgins and second year man Terrance Marshall providing some additional weapons. Second year tight end Tommy Tremble has won the starting job, and if Mayfield’s time with the Browns is any indication, the young TE will see some targets. Of course we all know that this offense runs through the electric Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield, running and as a receiver. McCaffrey has unfortunately not been able to stay on the field the past two seasons, and his presence on the offense is the difference between a good one or a bad one.
Unless you follow the Carolina Panthers closely, there aren’t a ton of huge names on the defensive side of the ball that you might recognize. When you drill down though, this team has quietly built a pretty nice collection of good young players at each level. The team hit with their top picks on the defensive line/edge as Brian Burns is a quality pass rushers, and Derrick Brown has all of the tools to be a dominant interior lineman. Shaq Thompson still leads the linebackers, and the Panthers are hopeful that Yetur Gross-Matos can take the next step at defensive end. The secondary is where Panther fans should really be excited as this young group has the potential to really mesh into one of the better units in the league. Jeremy Chinn has All-Pro potential, and rookie first round pick Jaycee Horn can be a lock-down type corner if he continues to develop. They also have former top pick C.J. Henderson for added depth, who could really be a force if he can put it all together. For a defense that was atrocious just a few seasons ago, this is one of the more up and coming squads that you’ll find heading into the 2022 season.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 18th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 6.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-9
How well the season goes for the Carolina Panthers is really going to rest squarely on the shoulders of new quarterback Baker Mayfield. This defense should keep Carolina in ballgames, and the offense has a respectable stable of weapons headlined by the return of Christian McCaffrey. Heading into the season we have this team pegged at 8-9 which is better than what Vegas believes they can do.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
No one is giving this Panthers team or quarterback Sam Darnold much of a glance heading into the season. Take advantage of the value that is there with the improving young defense and the talent on offense. The Panthers are going to surprise some teams and be more competitive than a lot of people think. All aboard the Panther train!
Fantasy Players To Watch – Christian McCaffrey (RB)
If you have the number one pick in your fantasy draft you may strongly want to consider taking McCaffrey. Based on the division he plays in and the offense the team runs it’s not crazy to say he’s the best player available. In any kind of PPR league he provides a lot of value due to his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. The only other player worth rostering at this point is the underrated D.J. Moore, who will need to develop some early chemistry with Mayfield if he’s going to be a difference maker for fantasy teams.
New Orleans Saints
2021 Record – 9-8
2021 Record Against the Spread – 9-8
KEY ADDITIONS:
(QB) Andy Dalton, (WR) Jarvis Landry, (S) Tyrann Mathieu, (WR) Chris Olave
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(OT) Terron Armstead, (S) Marcus Williams
Over the past two seasons the Saints have watched head coach Sean Payton and future Hall of Famer Drew Brees exit the organization. It’s a pretty tall task for new head coach Dennis Allen and rehabbing quarterback Jameis Winston to fill the shoes of the previously mentioned franchise legends. Each has proven their worth for the organization in some form or fashion, and both are eager to show the NFL what they can do in the spotlight. Make no mistake about it, this New Orleans team could be dangerous, if Allen and Winston can lead the way.
There were no shortage of the entertaining training and rehabbing videos posted from Saints quarterback Jameis Winston during his recovery from major knee surgery. Winston says he feels good and is excited to get back onto the football field. Before his injury, he was guiding the Saints to victories despite some pretty meager passing numbers. That’s not a terrible thing if you’re the Saints as it showed the maturity of the quarterback of not forcing plays that weren’t there. The team did decide to bring in a little insurance in the offseason as they nabbed Andy Dalton just in case there are any issues with Watson. The offense as a whole should be markedly improved as the team not only finally looks to welcome back Michael Thomas, but also brought in veteran Jarvis Landry and drafted Chris Olave at the receiver position. With Winston and Dalton on the roster, that also frees the Saints up to utilize Taysom Hill the way they did when he was most productive a couple of seasons ago. The offensive line should be solid again despite the departure of stud left tackle Terron Armstead. Nine year veteran James Hurst will take over at the left tackle spot, and any tight end or back help will probably be rotated his way. The running game should be in good shape as usual as Alvin Kamara looks as though he’ll avoid any lengthy suspension, and hometown favorite Mark Ingram is back for their one-two punch.
The Saints defense has been one of the better defenses in the league the past three seasons, and it’s another talented group of playmakers. The front seven still boasts some really strong players with favorites Cameron Jordan, Marcus Davenport and Demario Davis providing their typical strong base. They’re not quite as deep as they’ve been though as free agency has taken some players from them both in their pass rush and run stopping. The guy they’re really hopeful will step up is former second round pick Pete Werner, who they believe has the tools to be a big-time player. The secondary looks really good as the additions of safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye round out a team of deep cornerbacks led by Pro Bowler Marshon Lattimore. The big question on the defensive side of the ball is how will this team execute with Dennis Allen relinquishing controls to new co-coordinators Ryan Nielsen and Kris Richard?
2022 Strength of Schedule – 23rd Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over -105, under +115)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-7
In order for the Saints to make a strong divisional run or playoff push, they’re going to have to top the Bucs’ again this season, at least once. You can call us crazy as we’re actually seeing the Saints push Tampa for supremacy in the division. There’s some obvious uncertainty with a new head coach and having Jameis Winston as the signal-caller, but there’s no reason this team can’t compete in the NFC. When you break down the schedule, they have a very realistic shot at getting to double digit sins.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
You probably gathered that we’re believing in this Saints team and feel they’re undervalued heading into the season. With a defense like they have and the return of playmakers on the offense, there is no reason this team won’t be competitive week in and week out. If they’re getting points, consider taking them, or even playing them as a true underdog moneyline play in the right situations.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Michael Thomas (WR)
As usual Alvin Kamara will be a featured fantasy football player and is the obvious choice for this offense. Although it seems like forever ago, it was only a few seasons ago that Michael Thomas was a top two wideout in the league. While we wouldn’t expect quite that type of production as he returns, he should still catch a lot of passes for this team that really doesn’t utilize a tight end. Don’t let Jarvis Landry or the rookie Olave keep you from taking a flyer on Thomas. He’s the definition of a high-risk, high-reward player, but we like a gamble.
