ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -185
New Orleans Saints +350
Atlanta Falcons +900
Carolina Panthers +1100
The reigning Super Bowl champions reside in the NFC South, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will attempt to be the first repeat champions since the 2004-2005 New England Patriots. That team was of course quarterbacked by current Bucs legend Tom Brady. In a division that’s traditionally been very competitive, the oddsmakers seem to believe it’s a foregone conclusion Tampa will hold serve in 2021. The one thing that is a fact, is there is quite a bit of change happening with the other three teams in the NFC South. Statistics would lead us to believe at least one of the other teams in the division will be at least somewhat competitive, which one will it be?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2020 Record – 11-5
2020 Record Against the Spread – 9-7
In college, when a team would win a big Bowl Game, we’d evaluate how many players they had coming back to determine how good they may be the following year. This is the big leagues, and we know that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are essentially returning their entire starting team, and some depth from their Super Bowl LV roster of a year ago. There are presently a handful of really good teams in the league, yet it would have to be a disappointment for the Bucs’ organization if they don’t in fact go back-to-back.
For yet another year, Tom Brady fended off “Father Time” and orchestrated the offense in his first try like he had been their for a decade. At age 44, he’s admitting the window is almost closed on his illustrious career, all while prepping for a ridiculous 11th try at the Super Bowl. There isn’t much to say about the offense that hasn’t already been stated in the past 18 months. The offensive line is solid, the receivers room is a solid four guys deep, plus three quality tight ends, and the running backs are diverse and strong. The team even added veteran Gio Bernard to give them even more depth and some pass catching out of the backfield. The formula here seems pretty straightforward, keep the quarterback healthy and points should be plentiful.
We all remember the stars on offense celebrating their win in Super Bowl LV, but it’s important that we recall that it was actually the defense that was lights out in that game. In fact, the defense was the driving force for this team throughout the playoffs as they really came together at the right time and played together as a dominant unit. The defensive line is getting a little long in the tooth, however, they are big, physical, and have seen everything throughout their careers. The linebacking corp is as good as you’ll find in the league, as Devin White is now a rising superstar, still partnering with previous star Lavonte David. The secondary looked like it might be the weak link heading into the playoffs, but they really got it clicking when it mattered. They’re talented and importantly for a secondary, have a lot of confidence and swagger.
2021 Strength of Schedule – 29th (.465)
Team Win Total Odds – 11.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 13-4
There are really only two possible scenarios that would result in the Buccaneers not making the playoffs and another run at the championship, and both involve Tom Brady. If the G.O.A.T. is either injured, or his arm suddenly deflates, the team would obviously tick down quite a bit with Blaine Gabbert at the helm. Even in that scenario, they’d still probably be competitive with the great talent on the rest of their roster. We’ve got no choice but to pencil them in for a top one or two seed again in the NFC.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread, Teasers
With matchups against lesser opponents, it’s very possible that this team can really have some blowouts. Even if they’re laying big points at home, it’s going to be worth a shot to be a little chalky. In that same breath, getting TB through key numbers should be as close to a sure thing as you can have most weekend.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Chris Godwin (WR)
The backfield and tight end positions are too crowded to reach for any of the players despite some really enticing names. Mike Evans should be good to go and as we mentioned in the paragraph above, Chris Godwin could be the big consistent producer for this offense if Brady shows he can still toss the ball around.
Atlanta Falcons
2020 Record – 4-12
2020 Record Against the Spread – 7-9
The Atlanta Falcons were stuck in salary cap limbo in the offseason, which resulted in longtime star Julio Jones exiting to the Tennessee Titans. The good news, presumably, is that they were able to keep veteran face of the franchise Matt Ryan around for another rodeo. That’s questionable as this team is stuck in that purgatory of winning now and rebuilding based on the current players and cap situation. Make no mistake about it, Ryan gives this team a chance to win on any given Sunday, and this Falcons team may be a little undervalued heading into the season.
Let’s start with the positives regarding the Atlanta Falcons offense. Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts. The loss of longtime star Julio Jones is going to have an impact on this offense no matter how well Ridley and Pitts can pick up the slack. You can’t simply insert a Russell Gage type player and not expect a fall off of some sort. First you have to look at the scheme adjustments. For a team that routinely ran three wides, you can expect to see more two tight end sets with Hayden Hurst and the fore mentioned Pitts. Most draft experts believe Kyle Pitts is a generational type talent at the tight end position as he definitely has all of the physical tools and abilities to thrive. Ridley is projected to have a huge year as the top target on the outside. While Ridley has proven he can step up in games where Julio Jones was not available, it was quarterback Matt Ryan who often struggled. Ryan’s a savvy veteran who will figure out how to adapt, however you have to be concerned with how quickly he can figure that out. The other glaring problem with this offense is the running game, which struggled a year ago, and is questionable at best heading into this season. The team brought in Mike Davis from the rival Panthers to head up the backfield, and he’ll have his work cut out for him with a mediocre offensive line. Points have never really been an issue during the Matt Ryan era, and this offense should be decent, it’s just that decent may not be enough.
Critics will point to the fact that the Falcons defense has been pretty poor over the past few seasons, and they wouldn’t be wrong in suggesting so. You’ll want to remember that the team was as decimated by injuries on that side of the ball as any in the league during the stretch. The Falcons are hopeful some new additions and younger speed can help elevate the group as a whole, but it’s a vastly unproven group from top to bottom. Grady Jarrett will once again anchor the defensive line, which helps everyone around him. He’s not an unknown talent by any stretch, but he is very much underrated at the position. The linebackers each have their niche with Deion Jones holding down the middle and Dante Fowler, Jr. as more of a situational pass rusher. Where Atlanta could be improved is in the secondary, where they brought in some veteran players to shore up the big plays that ravaged them a season ago. Defensive coordinator Dean Pees has always found ways to give his defense an advantage, can he do that with this mixed together unit?
2021 Strength of Schedule – 30th (.454)
Team Win Total Odds – 8 Wins (over -120, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 7-10
This Atlanta Falcons team is a little tricky to figure out as they’re probably undervalued heading into the season. With that being said, we don’t like what we’ve seen out of Ryan, sans Julio Jones. Until we can learn how well the defensive side of the ball can function we’ll probably be staying away from this team. The bookmakers seem to be on track though with the estimation that the Falcons will be fighting the Panthers for third place in the division.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
We mentioned putting a brief pause on capping the Falcons to start the season, but do not hesitate to load up on wide receiver Calvin Ridley. The young receiver is an elite talent and it’s completely his show now at the position. He’s going to see a lot of targets and is more than capable of making the best of those. Even with some high totals likely to be set, if you want to play a player prop over, stick with Ridley early in the season and you should come out ahead.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Calvin Ridley (WR)
All you need to do is read our above to know how we feel about Calvin Ridley’s potential for this year. He’s listed by most as a top three fantasy football wide receiver, but fork over the draft pick or cash to get him on your team. Barring injury there is almost no chance Ridley wouldn’t go for 1,400 yards and a slew of touchdowns.
Carolina Panthers
2020 Record – 5-11
2020 Record Against the Spread – 9-7
Whenever there is a quarterback change it tends to feel like it’s a brand new makeover for a football team, which is the case with Sam Darnold taking over in Carolina. The reality of it is this team is actually one of the more stable rosters from the previous year, and they should gel nicely together in a lot of ways. How well Darnold can fit in and steer this team will not only determine the success and future of the Panthers, but also the young quarterbacks own career and future in the league.
Head coach Matt Rhule has done a nice job in a short amount of time of creating a vision, and implementing that vision into the Carolina Panthers. Even though the Panthers offense was a little streaky at times last year, it’s important to remember that they spent much of the season without their best player Christian McCaffrey. The superstar back will return this year and is poised to regain the form that makes him one of the most dynamic players in the game. The left side of the offensive line is revamped with what could best be described as marginal, yet savvy linemen. While it won’t be the most talented offensive line in the league, they seem like they should be a generally productive group that the Panthers hope will play well as a unit. And let’s not kid ourselves, this team needs their offensive line to play well to give new quarterback Sam Darnold a chance to succeed. It’s almost unfair to grade Darnold based on his situation in New York so it’s exciting to see how he’ll do with a fresh start in Carolina. He’s got two very good receivers to target, and if this team doesn’t have D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson go over 1,000 yards each, something went horribly wrong. In the preseason small sample size Darnold was very efficient, however he’s going to need to air the ball out a little more than he showed in his limited work.
Unless you follow the Carolina Panthers closely, there aren’t a ton of huge names on the defensive side of the ball that you might recognize. When you drill down though, this team has quietly built a pretty nice collection of good young players at each level. The team hit with their top picks on the defensive line/edge as Brian Burns is a quality pass rushers, and Derrick Brown has all of the tools to be a dominant interior lineman. Shaq Thompson leads the linerbackers, and the Panthers are hopeful free agent addition Haason Reddick can compliment him at the opposite linebacker spot. The secondary is where Panther fans should really be excited as this young group has the potential to really mesh into one of the better units in the league. Jeremy Chinn has All-Pro potential, and rookie first round pick Jaycee Horn can be a lock-down type corner if he continues to develop. For a defense that was atrocious just two seasons ago, this is one of the more up and coming squads that you’ll find heading into the 2021 season.
2021 Strength of Schedule – 26th (.472)
Team Win Total Odds – 7.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-8
How well the season goes for the Carolina Panthers is really going to rest squarely on the shoulders of free agent quarterback Sam Darnold. This defense should keep Carolina in ballgames, and the offense has a nice trio of weapons headlined by the return of Christian McCaffrey. Heading into the season we have this team pegged at 9-8 which is better than what Vegas believes they can do.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
No one is giving this Panthers team or quarterback Sam Darnold much of a glance heading into the season. Take advantage of the value that is there with the improving young defense and the talent on offense. The Panthers are going to surprise some teams and be more competitive than a lot of people think. All aboard the Panther train!
Fantasy Players To Watch – Christian McCaffrey (RB), Robby Anderson (WR)
If you have the number one pick in your fantasy draft you may strongly want to consider taking McCaffrey. Based on the division he plays in and the offense the team runs it’s not crazy to say he’s the best player available. In any kind of PPR league he provides a lot of value due to his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. D.J. Moore is actually the most talented receiver on this team and should have a good year in his own right, however Robby Anderson is a guy to keep an eye on. He already has rapport with Darnold, and really showed that he can win one-on-one matchups on the outside a season ago. For a guy that won’t draw a lot of interest from casual fantasy players, he’s someone that can put up good numbers fairly consistently.
New Orleans Saints
2020 Record – 12-4
2020 Record Against the Spread – 9-7
The Drew Brees era is officially over in New Orleans, and although the team captured only one Lombardi, it was one of the most successful runs a player and franchise have experienced. The offseason saw a bit of a quarterback competition to replace the future Hall of Famer, as well as some drama with its top wideout Michael Thomas. Head coach Sean Payton has always been recognized as a bit of a mad scientist genius in terms of his coaching, and it’s a fact he’ll have his work cut out for him if the Saints want to compete for the playoffs and in the NFC South.
Jameis Winston is officially the man in New Orleans after an impressive preseason working with the Saints offense. As much as Sean Payton loves Taysom Hill, this definitely makes the most sense, and not just at the quarterback position. With Winston at QB, Hill can resume his “utility” role on the offense allowing for the creativity that Payton desires. We can spend all day talking about how important Winston playing sound football is, but this offense needs to run through it’s talented offensive line, and their running game. The team will be starting the season with Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, and Adam Trautman at the receiver and tight end position, which isn’t necessarily going to scare anyone. Watch how Payton utilizes Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill in some creative situations to bridge the gap until they can get Michael Thomas back in the lineup.
The Saints defense has been one of the better defenses in the league the past three seasons, and it’s another talented group of playmakers. The defensive line did take a couple of losses as Trey Hendrickson and Sheldon Rankins both departed via free agency, leaving them a little thinner than they’ve been, but they’re still a strong group overall. The back seven should be solid, led by veterans Demario Davis, Malcolm Jenkins and Marshon Lattimore. As is the case with the defensive line, depth seems to be the only real concern when you look at this defense.
2021 Strength of Schedule – 22nd (.483)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over +115, under -105)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-8
As is the case in Carolina, the Saints playoff hopes rest on the arm of new starting quarterback Jameis Winston. The roster has too much talent to fade away, however it’s going to be an absolute battle for the Saints to get into the playoffs. With odds set at 9 wins, we’re going to piggyback that until we learn a little more from Jameis and the New Orleans offense.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Over/Under Totals – Over
If we’ve learned anything from watching James Winston play quarterback, it’s that there are going to be a lot of points put up. This could be a good thing or a bad thing for the Saints, but should make for some high-flying and scoring football. Look to take the over when the Saints are playing against a capable offense.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Marquez Callaway (WR)
Alvin Kamara is going to produce as usual, and we wouldn’t fault you if you wanted to roll the dice with Jameis Winston. He’s a bit of a high risk/high reward QB heading into the year. The player that is a little under the radar is wideout Marquez Callaway, who has looked great over the summer and seems to have some chemistry with Winston. He’s definitely a guy that could come out of nowhere and be that 1,000+ yard type of receiver.
