ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Green Bay Packers -190
Minnesota Vikings +265
Detroit Lions +1000
Chicago Bears +1400
The Green Bay Packers have owned the NFC North during the tenure of Aaron Rodgers, and are the odds on favorites to take the division again. There’s some intrigue with the other three teams as the Lions are a hot watch, after their season of Hard Knocks, and the Vikings boast the top skill position collection in the North. The Bears look to be a notch behind the others as Justin Fields is finding that playing with lesser talent is much tougher than being on a team with superior players. Can any of these teams knock Rodgers off the top of the mountain, or will he continue to own his divisional rivals?
Chicago Bears
2021 Record – 6-11
2021 Record Against the Spread – 6-11
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) Byron Pringle, (OG) Lucas Patrick, (CB) Kyler Gordon
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(LB) Khalil Mack, (WR) Allen Robinson II, (WR) Jakeem Grant
It was a rough go of it for the Chicago Bears a season ago, as the team seemed routinely outmanned week in and week out, leading to an uninspiring 6-11 record. Enter new head coach Matt Eberflus, who welcomes the challenge of getting the Bears back into the playoffs with a young roster. The organization is high on second year quarterback Justin Fields, although there are plenty of questions with the rest of his supporting cast on offense and defense. Is this part of the rebuilding process, or can Eberflus have the Bears competitive in his first year as coach?
Evaluating the Chicago Bears offense always seems to be a bit of a struggle, much like watching them try to move the ball over the last handful of seasons. Logically, we need to start at the quarterback position, as we take a closer look at the athletic Justin Fields. The former Ohio State star has shown flashes of what makes him an exciting prospect, but has looked a little lost an under consistent heavy pressure. Although the BetCrushers have been on record as not being big believers in Fields, it’s not really fair to grade him when Chicago hasn’t done a whole lot to make his life easier. The Bears offensive line has been poor, particularly in pass protection, and despite the addition of Lucas Patrick at center, it looks to be a bottom third unit in the league yet again. They have done slightly better in their run blocking, which does help utilize their strengths of David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. The problem they’ve had, is when they get behind or need to keep up against higher scoring offenses, they cannot rely on that run and are forced to throw with an anemic passing game. Darnell Mooney is the most talented receiver on the roster and the guy that coaching staff really is relying on to step up this season. He’ll see a lot of double teams until newly acquired Byron Pringle or Velus Jones, Jr. can prove reliable targets. Cole Kmet has been a bit of a disappointment as well at tight end, although he seems to be in a good spot heading into his third season. If the Bears are able to produce offensively, it will be safe to say that Justin Fields is definitely the answer at quarterback the team has long been searching for.
The reputation of the Chicago defense in recent years has been one of a hard-nosed, opportunistic and turnover producing squad. That attacking style has allowed this team to be competitive and often made up for the routinely subpar play of the offense. Unfortunately, the peak of that Bears defense has since passed, and there’s a chance that this year’s unit could really mirror the offense in terms of mediocrity. Khalil Mack departed in the offseason, and Roquan Smith’s vocal complaints have highlighted some of his own shortcomings. Robert Quinn has been an underrated star and will provide some juice with the pass rush, but beyond that there is very little to get excited about. A thin secondary will have their hands full, and the defensive line is largely unproven as well. Losing return specialist Jakeem Grant could also set their special teams back in the area of the ever important “hidden yards”.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 28th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 6.5 Wins (over +150, under -190)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 5-12
If our preview above didn’t give you enough of an indication of our thoughts regarding the Bears, we’ll put it down in black and white right here. This team’s 6.5 win total future is generous in our humble opinion, as this looks like a 4 or 5 win team on paper. It’s the NFL, and they have a relatively soft projected schedule so anything is possible. Who’s really confident in this team’s ability to make a playoff run though? We’re certainly not buying that as a reasonable possibility.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Over/Under – Team Totals
You already heard our take on why this offense will struggle, which makes playing the Bears team total unders an angle to look at each week. Don’t let the fact that those totals will be set pretty low scare you away from playing them. On the flip side, because of their recent success on the defensive side of the ball, we’ll be looking at their opponents over team totals. It’s possible the numbers could be more enticing with one of these plays as opposed to a straight against the spread wager.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Darnell Mooney (WR)
Running back David Montgomery is probably the safest bet in terms of Chicago fantasy players, however Khalil Herbert will steal some workload. As fantasy shifts to more of a wide receiver focus, if we have to take a shot with anyone we’re going with Mooney. The wideout has speed to go deep, and some chemistry with Justin Fields. He’s definitely a low floor and high ceiling player, so roster him at your own risk.
Detroit Lions
2021 Record – 3-13-1
2021 Record Against the Spread – 11-6
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) D.J. Chark, (DE) Charles Harris, (DE) Aidan Hutchinson, (WR) Jameson Williams
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(DE) Trey Flowers, (LB) Jalen Reeves-Maybin
All it took for the Detroit Lions to move from laughing stock of the league, to darling upstart franchise was a season on the TV show Hard Knocks. Head coach Dan Campbell’s unorthodox coaching style really seems to have won over both his players and fans of the team. When Hard Knocks debuted, bets began pouring in on the Lions, which can safely be said is the first time that’s happened in a while, without having to do any research. Factually speaking, the Lions have one of the more exciting offensive rosters in the league, if you can see past the ever important quarterback position. The Lions 2021 record against the spread was near the top in the league despite tallying only 3 wins on the season. Have they gone from undervalued to overvalued?
The Lions offense can best be described as a roughly assembled group of hard-nosed players fighting together for a common goal. This is exactly what Dan Campbell wants, as this possibly overlooked collection of athletes scratches and claws for a combination of wins and respectability. Things really start up front with what is one of the top offensive lines in the entire league, led by Frank Ragnow and last year’s top pick Penei Sewell. Their strong play allows the team to run what is expected to be a diverse offense through new offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. D’Andre Swift is a pure talent who can run and catch, and Jamaal Williams gives them a strong one-two punch at the running back position. The receivers are an underappreciated group headlined by second year player Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds and free agent D.J. Chark, Jr. They’ll eventually welcome Alabama WR Jameson Williams into the fold when he recovers from the knee injury he sustained in the College Football Championship. They also have one of the better tight ends in the league as T.J. Hockenson has proven to be a very capable target when he’s been healthy. Everything is there for quarterback Jared Goff, who has proven he can win with the right pieces around him. This is probably a make or break year for Goff in terms of his future with the Lions and perhaps in the league as a whole.
With all of the potential optimism surrounding the offense, things could still be a little ugly for the Lions on the defensive side of the ball. The excitement defensively rests with number two overall pick Aidan Hutchinson, who has superstar written all over him. Detroit is hopeful he can jump start a pass rush that was non-existent for most of last season. He’ll need to play well to cover some of the other shortcomings on the defense, particularly with the linebackers and corners. It would be a huge boost if former top pick Jeff Okudah were able to work his way back onto the field to give them some depth in that secondary. Ultimately, it just feels like the offense has improved, while the defense is still playing catch up and has a way to go.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 27th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 6.5 Wins (over -120, under +100)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-9
We’ve got the Lions pegged as a roughly .500 ballclub as there are clearly some winnable games on the schedule. What remains to be seen is how will they perform when they are supposed to win games? Or a bigger question may be, can they compete in games where they aren’t supposed to traditionally win? The wild card spots at a minimum are up for grabs in the NFC. The season could be considered a disappointment for the Lions if they’re not fighting for a spot when we get around to the final weeks of the year.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Over/Under Totals – Over
The formula is pretty simple when you combine what should be a productive offense with a defense that could still be a liability. Point totals should end up in the 50’s with regularity unless the Lions are facing an elite defense. Because Detroit isn’t considered an explosive offense there should be some inherent value right from the start.
Fantasy Players To Watch , T.J. Hockenson (TE)
The wide receiver position is too clustered to rely on any of the players, as all three starting wideouts have potential. D’Andre Swift is loaded with potential, however the team looks like they want to get Jamaal Williams some work in the running game, and Detroit may be trailing during a lot of second halves. There is some value in tight end T.J. Hockenson as he should see a ton of targets with the lack of proven talent on the outside, and with Jared Goff’s history of feeding the tight end position.
Green Bay Packers
2021 Record – 13-4
2021 Record Against the Spread – 12-6
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) Sammy Watkins, (LB) Quay Walker
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(WR) Davante Adams, (LB) Za’Darius Smith, (WR) Marquez Valdes-Scantling, (OT) Billy Turner
After back to back to back 13 win seasons the NFL is getting accustomed to seeing the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs. Unfortunately for Packer fans, the team has not been able to parlay any of the highly earned NFC seedings into a visit back to the Super Bowl. The offseason saw some big name players exit the roster, yet this is still one of the most talented teams in the conference. Could this be the year that the Packers get over the playoff hump, or is the beginning of a decline in the quickly closing window for Aaron Rodgers and the team?
The Green Bay offense looks very similar to what we’ve gotten used to seeing the past few seasons with one notable, no, make that enormous and obvious subtraction of Davante Adams. Aaron Rodgers go-to man is now in Las Vegas leaving the receiving crew as a very pedestrian bunch by most accounts. They’re counting on Allen Lazard to step up, Sammy Watkins to stay healthy and give them a boost, and Randall Cobb to provide some of his old magic. It’ll clearly be a group effort in replacing Adams’ production, and the guy to really keep an eye on is rookie Romeo Doubs. He’s looked sharp and possesses the ability to get deep, something that Rodgers will like if he can earn the trust of the future Hall of Fame quarterback. The offensive line should finally have David Bakhtiari back at left tackle, and if they do, they’ll remain one of the better protecting groups in the conference. Expect to see a whole lot of running the football to start the season as Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon should each remain fresh and thrive throughout the year. Although the passing game may not be quite as electric as it was with Adams, there’s little reason to believe this offense can’t still be pretty successful.
While Aaron Rodgers is the face of the Packers, and a star in the league, it might be the Green Bay defense that really elevates this team in 2022. The defensive line is your typical “lunch pail” unit that grinds hard to get the job done. If there’s a hole on the defense, it’s probably the lack of depth behind starters Dean Lowry, Kenny Clark and Jarran Reed. As long as they don’t get dinged up too badly here, this group should give opposing offensive lines headaches throughout the season. The linebackers are excellent and compliment each other well with their different abilities to rush the passer, stop the run and cover. Where they really shine is in their secondary that boasts five really good players, with the emergence of journeyman Rasul Douglas and return of Jaire Alexander, who missed nearly all of last season. We’re fully expecting the Packers to end the season as a top five defense in the league as long as they can avoid serious injuries.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 17th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 11 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
The win total numbers entering the season for the Packers are consistently going over so trends would tell you they’ll do it again. It’s tough to bet against Aaron Rodgers, however this year the 11 win total seems to be pretty spot-on. It’s a pass for us as far as any futures bets here as this Green Bay Packer team definitely has a slightly more volatile feel to it than the previous few years. How big will the loss of Davante Adams be when the dust settles? Our guess is somewhere in the mild-moderate range, yet only time will tell.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Team Totals – Under (opponents)
Opposing offenses often come to Lambeau field to die. With the Packers likely running more and throwing shorter, unders will be in play throughout the season. The route we’re looking at is taking an opponents team total under when they visit Lambeau. The combination of an underrated Packers defense, cold weather and game script should leave visiting teams leaving without a lot of points on the scoreboard more often than not.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Packers (DST)
The Packers are one of the only teams that uses a two-man time share at running back where you could feel good about grabbing either back. We’re focusing here on the often overlooked and late round draft or weekly draft of Green Bay defense for the reasons mentioned above. If you can play this group at Lambeau Field, you should get some sacks, turnovers and very few points allowed.
Minnesota Vikings
2021 Record – 8-9
2021 Record Against the Spread – 9-8
KEY ADDITIONS:
(LB) Za’Darius Smith, (LB) Jordan Hicks, (DT) Harrison Phillips, (S) Lewis Cline
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(S) Xavier Woods, (OG) Mason Cole, (LB) Nick Vigil, (LB) Anthony Barr
After what could probably be classified as underperforming teams, Mike Zimmer is out as head coach and Kevin O’Connell is in for the Minnesota Vikings. The team is hopeful that a new coaching staff mixed with the addition of some veterans is just what the doctor ordered in their quest to take down the Packers for supremacy in the NFC North. On paper, there is a lot to like about this Vikings roster on offense and defense. It’s difficult to know if they’ve done enough to win this division, but at +265 it seems the sportsbooks don’t have quite the amount of confidence in them as we do heading into the season.
For a guy that takes all sorts of grief around the league, quarterback Kirk Cousins really put together another pretty darn good campaign in 2021. Cousins finally seems to have settled into Minnesota, and he should continue to have success riding the powerful legs of Dalvin Cook, and utilizing his two highly skilled receivers in Adam Thielen and mega star Justin Jefferson. The Vikings offensive line lacks star power or recognition, however they play very well together as a unit and are a great run blocking bunch. Although Minnesota will pull out the occasional creative play, this group likes to line up and push the defense backwards and they’re really good at that. What will be fun to watch is what Kevin O’Connell’s influence will be with new coordinator Wes Phillips on this offense? We’re anticipating a little more creativity, and for the Vikings sake, safer play calling in the 4th quarter of games.
In the offseason the Vikings elected to put their emphasis on what was definitely a failed and flawed defense in Mike Zimmer’s final two seasons. Ed Donatell was brought in as defensive coordinator as the team will officially switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base. They also brought in free agent Za’Darius Smith in hopes that he, along with a finally healthy Danielle Hunter can give them bookend pass rushers. Both players have been saddled with injuries over the last year, but if these two can stay healthy and play at even close to their abilities, watch out. Jordan Hicks takes the place of fan favorite Anthony Barr next to Eric Kendricks who just continues to make plays in the middle of the defense. The secondary is where things start to get a little dicey as Minnesota is hoping to squeeze just a little more juice out of Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith. If they can hold up, this defense will be good, even if they aren’t spectacular.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 16th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over -125, under +105)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-7
Whether or not the Vikings can leapfrog GB in the division remains to be seen, but regardless, this team should be fighting for a playoff spot when it’s all said and done. From top to bottom they are one of the most complete teams in the league, and with Kirk Cousins consistently playing solid football and leaning on the running game, Minnesota should win double digit games.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets, Team Totals – Over
If you were studious enough to figure out the formula you know that Kirk Cousins played very well against sub .500 competition and very poorly against over .500 competition. This offense should be more explosive with the new coaching staff effectively utilizing some of the matchup advantages they should have on most weeks. Expect, and bet on a lot of points, especially when they’re playing at home.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Kirk Cousins (QB), Dalvin Cook (RB), Justin Jefferson (WR)
After all the Cousins analysis you might wonder why we’d have Cousins listed as a QB to watch. As is the case with the previously mentioned prop bets playing Cousins in certain matchups can actually really help you. With his injury history you’re playing with some fire taking Dalvin Cook in a league setting, however he is poised to have a fantastic season if he can steer clear of the injury report. Justin Jefferson will be a wanted man and with good reasons. Don’t expect any kind of slump from him this year as we’ll look for him to elevate his play and establish himself as not only the clear number one receiver in Minnesota, but maybe in the entire league.
