Lafayette’s performance on Sunday was the definition of “survive and advance”, except the Leopards simply advanced to Patriot League play with a 8-3 record. That’s something, considering that Lafayette hasn’t won more than 10 games in an entire season in five years. Another solid card is here, and that means it’s time for the Road Dog Report for 12/30/2019.
The Leopards showed quite a bit of resolve yesterday in their 67-66 thriller at Sacred Heart. I expected a great-shooting Lafayette team to keep pace from the outside to counteract EJ Anosike’s potency inside. They were well below their shooting percentages from the field and at the line, but Sacred Heart’s miscues in crunch time gave Lafayette the ability to cover and win the game.
(731) St. Bonaventure @ Buffalo -4
The 8-4 Bonnies are riding a seven-game winning streak into Buffalo for a clash with the 8-4 Bulls. St. Bonaventure’s young backcourt has been consistently producing for this team. With Kyle Lofton orchestrating the offense and 6’10” forward Osun Osunniyi back in the fold, this team is rounding into form for A-10 play. Osunniyi missed some time early in November but has been giving the Bonnies good minutes this month. He played a full game last time out against MTSU with 15 points, 16 rebounds, and 5 blocks in 37 minutes.
This St. Bonaventure team is much more dynamic with Osunniyi on the court, who could pose a significant matchup problem for Buffalo. This isn’t a Nate Oats-led Buffalo Bulls team any more. His four years of 96-43 ball has given way to the Jim Whitesell era, which has started fairly well at 8-4. The Bulls have held serve at home with a 4-2 record at Alumni Arena. This has extended their ongoing home streak to 18-2 in their last 20 games.
Buffalo averages 80.2 points per game while yielding an average of 76.0 points. This is a vast contrast from the controlling gameplay that the Bonnies employ. Buffalo has a trio of upperclassmen guards who are the main source of their offense. It should be interesting to see whether the Bulls can maintain their dominance on the glass tonight against Osunniyi and company. The re-emergence of St. Bonaventure’s big man is a major factor in this handicap if he can give them 35+ minutes.
On the Money
The Bonnies are 6-5 ATS and an even 3-3 away from home. They failed to cover the -4.5 in their last outing at MTSU, winning 66-65. Although this was their seventh win in a row, this was somewhat of a stumble against the number after covering four in a row. They’ve been dogs only twice this year, covering the +4 against Vermont and winning outright as 8.5-point dogs at Rutgers. Those games were early in the season and the Bonnies have been favorites in their last seven.
Buffalo comes in 4-6-1 ATS overall and 2-2-1 ATS at home. The Bulls are laying points at home for the fourth game in a row, going 1-1-1 ATS in their last three. They blew out a bad Niagara team as 16-point favorites, pushed Canisius at -9, and were upset by Army as 15.5-point favorites. My core ratings and these comps would put a fair value against St. Bonaventure around -2, so I’ll take the +4 with a solid Bonnies team.
(745) Cleveland St. @ IUPUI -4
4-10 Cleveland State squares off against 4-10 IUPUI in each team’s second Horizon League game of the season. Both are looking for their first win in conference and have to figure, “If we can’t get a win against these guys…”. Neither of these teams are very good and my ratings have them close to dead-even, with a shade towards the CSU Vikings on a neutral court.
These teams have some apparent similarities, the first of which being their challenges putting up points. Coach Dennis Gates shuffles quite a few players in and out of the game. One of those guys is freshman guard Tre Gomillion, who has gotten plenty of playing time and can be a key defensive contributor. His aggressive style can get him into foul trouble, but the gambles have paid off for the Vikings at times.
The IUPUI Jaguars have done the majority of their winning at home this season at 3-2 on their floor. Their guard-oriented offense is led by senior Marcus Burketts and junior Jaylen Minnett, combining to average 32 PPG. The Jags are no strangers to high-scoring affairs and have a pair of 6’7″ guys that are key to generating offensive rebounds for second chance points. This is important because IUPUI is a team that shoots only 41.0% from the floor (CSU shoots 40.1%).
When you pair a couple of bad teams together, there must be an allowance for mistakes. The Vikings have fouled their opponents nearly 21 times per game, which is due in part to them habitually being down late in the game. Teams have generated an average of 17 points per game from the charity stripe against Cleveland State. IUPUI may not be the team best suited to take advantage of this, however. Their 58.3% free throw shooting equates to converting only 10 of 17 on average per game. Can the Jaguars pull away in the final minute if the Vikings send them to the line?
On the Money
Cleveland State’s 4-5 ATS mark away from home mirrors their 6-7 overall ATS record. There is a bright side to this sub-.500 performance: they’ve covered six of their last nine despite losing six in a row straight up. The Vikings have been dogs all season, covering two of their last three as double-digit Road Dogs. +4 seems like a mighty small number compared to what they’ve been catching lately, but IUPUI is clearly a step down in class in that regard.
The Jaguars are 4-8 ATS so far this season with a proportional 1-2 mark at home. Like Cleveland State, IUPUI is used to getting points but has laid them one other time in 2019; laying -4.5 at Southern and losing outright. I cannot draw much of a conclusion from how these teams are being priced by the market, so I’ll go to my ratings. I have Cleveland State about a half-point better than IUPUI and will take the +4, as this should be a tight one tonight.
(777) Idaho @ Weber St. -11.5
There are a number of similarities between this game and the Cleveland State/IUPUI matchup. 4-8 Idaho attempts to get a Big Sky Conference win against 4-8 Weber State, both of which are 0-1 in conference. The Idaho Vandals are 0-5 on the road and I do not expect them to snap this streak tonight. This is a pretty bad team that I unsuccessfully backed at South Dakota State on December 21st. The handicap for them in that matchup essentially remains the same tonight. Trevon Allen must bring his A-game and 6’9″ forward Scott Blankney needs to be more of a presence on the glass.
Weber State has been respectable at home with a 3-2 record to date. They have a killer in the backcourt with senior guard Jerrick Harding, who is averaging 21.2 points per game. Harding carries the Wildcats on the offensive end but the team’s avoidance of fouls and turnovers is important to their success moving forward. Weber State has a size advantage, though I don’t believe this translates directly to them dominating the Vandals. The Wildcats are the better team tonight but we must evaluate these squads against the point spread, which makes all the difference in the world in this one.
On the Money
Just like another member of the Road Dog Report for 12/30/2019, Weber State has been an underdog in every game this season. They’ve arguably outperformed the market, covering six of ten despite the 4-8 record. The Vandals are 4-3 ATS away from home, but have played within the number in only one of their last four games on the road.
Continuing the connection to the Cleveland State/IUPUI matchup, Weber State has been favored in only one game like the home squad in that one. They lost as 2.5-point favorites against San Diego at home very early in the season. The Wildcats are 4-6 ATS and have split their two home games ATS.
Idaho’s big failures at Arkansas St., Seattle, and South Dakota St. has earned them an advantageous number tonight. When they miss the number, they bomb out significantly. Their 62-60 loss at Idaho St. is more indicative of the level they were at to begin the season when they covered three straight as Road Dogs. My ratings have the Vandals as about four points worse than the Wildcats. Is the Dee Events Center home court worth 6-7 points? Doubtful, so give me the +11.5 and I’ll look for a single-digit loss tonight.
Follow our article links from our Twitter account or subscribe below to get daily email alerts when new content is published:
