Yesterday’s Florida Atlantic at Mercer matchup was anything but a clash of titans. Regardless, we relied on our ratings to shake off the notion that FAU had yet to cover a spread on the road and took the +3 on the Owls. After a great day in NFL and on the court, Monday presents a short NCAAB slate that we’ve tackled in the Road Dog Report for 12/23/2019.
The FAU Owls came into yesterday’s game not having won a game on the road. I felt that their sparing, but effective, use of the deep shot would be a deciding factor to counter Mercer’s bigs. Well, the three-ball wasn’t used sparingly and they only hit for 26% (7-27) from downtown. FAU’s 42.0% shooting earned them the 65-50 outright win with solid defense and by snagging 16 offensive rebounds. After Saturday’s big card letdown, I’ll take that W.
(803) Long Beach State @ Seattle -4
Long Beach State brings their 4-9 record to the PNW for a showdown with the 6-7 Seattle Redhawks. It hasn’t been pretty for the 49ers, who just snapped a five-game losing streak with a 68-65 win over Utah Valley. Despite being a below-average squad, this team has played a rigorous schedule to date. LBSU’s resume is in the top 5% of D1 schools. They’ve faced USC, Wake Forest, Penn, Arizona, St. Mary’s, Stanford, and UCLA already in this young season.
The 49ers are led by an upperclassmen backcourt of transfer students Michael Carter III and Colin Slater. Both guards are key assets this year and have begun to gel; Exhibit A being their contributions in the Utah Valley win. 6’11” forward Joshua Morgan gives Long Beach good minutes down low, although longtime Coach Dan Monson had him come off the bench in the Utah Valley game. Turnovers and fouls have been their weakness, but the Niners are a good three-point shooting team (36.7%) that doesn’t overuse the deep shot.
Seattle has been good at the Redhawk Center with a 4-2 mark at home despite a bad loss to Florida A&M on Saturday. This is a good rebounding team that takes advantage of their trips to the free throw line by hitting 75% of their shots. The Redhawks aren’t great shooters from the field (40.4% FG), but this is mitigated by their free throw efficiency and second chances from nearly 11 offensive rebounds per game.
Upperclassmen guards Terrell Brown and Morgan Means consistently give Seattle University double-digit scoring games. Brown has been an absolute beast this season, averaging 20.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.2 assists. These two may need to pick up more slack, as they may be without 6’9″ senior forward Myles Carter again. Carter missed Saturday’s game and was limited in the three prior games. He leaves a gap down low that 6’10” forward Jordan Dallas has been unable to fill.
On the Money
For us handicappers, success against the spread is where the rubber meets the road. Long Beach is an even .500 ATS on the season at 6-6, including 4-4 away from home. Seattle is less prolific at 4-7 ATS, although they are a square 2-2 ATS at the Redhawk Center. With these two team’s mediocrity against the number, it’s conceivable that +4 will push tonight (although +4.5 is now available this morning).
Seattle was a 13.5-point favorite in their recent loss to Florida A&M, who I currently rate as 5 points worse than LBSU. They laid -5 in their 2-point win over Portland, who is slightly worse than the 49ers. But what may be telling is the pricing in the three home games prior to the Portland Game. Incarnate Word -16.5, Idaho -12.5, and Western Michigan pick ’em tell me that Seattle was starting to get overpriced. After all, they covered those three games before failing to cover their last three.
In my opinion, Long Beach is underpriced in today’s matchup. Granted, they’ve been inconsistent ATS on the road with large numbers against much better competition. They caught +8 at Wake Forest and +9.5 at Penn; teams that I rate 16- and 15-points better than Seattle. LBSU’s poor performance ATS going into the USC game earned them a fat +17.5, which they covered.
The 49ers need to keep this game close since Seattle is great at the free throw line and can easily pull away in the end game death spiral. Terrell Brown and Morgan Means will likely continue their great seasons, but this Redhawks team will have a big hole in their lineup again if Myles Carter is unable to go today. I’ll take the +4 with a battle-tested Long Beach State squad. If Carter is out, that’s a big bonus to this handicap.
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