The Florida A&M Rattlers bit back last night, putting up a little too much of a fight. FAMU battled back and made it to overtime, where dogs go to die. We’re roaring back like a bear today in the Road Dog Report for 1/7/2020.
(635) Missouri State @ Illinois State -1.5
The 7-8 Missouri State Bears take on the 6-8 Illinois State Redbirds as both teams look to break out of their 1-1 Missouri Valley Conference records. Missouri State’s position as a Road Dog tonight makes me a bit uneasy. They are 0-7 as an underdog and 0-5 on the road, although they’ve traveled to play formidable foes VCU, LSU, and Xavier. On the other hand, Illinois State has defended their home court quite well at 6-1.
When it comes to the Redbirds, they have not been a friend of mine this season. Illinois State stuck it to me twice in less than a week in December. Who gets the revenge tonight? Me or them? Regardless, my thoughts on this team have not changed much from the 12/21 handicap. My impression was that they were an improved team under the leadership of guard Zach Copeland. Copeland has been their main threat who has taken almost as many three-point shots this season as he has two-point shots. His supporting cast is a rotation of about eight other role players.
How will the Bears react from coach Dana Ford calling out their toughness after fading late against Loyola on Saturday? This letdown came just one game after a huge second-half comeback against Evansville in their MVC opener. MoState can be turnover-prone but generally plays good defense, making for an interesting tug-of-war.
The Bears have a trio of 6’8″ forwards, including 250-pound Gaige Prim who has made a big impact off of the bench. Tulio Da Silva and WVU transfer Lamont West match up very well against Illinois State’s Keith Fisher III and Rey Idowu. Da Silva and West had lackluster performances against Loyola, but have otherwise been very good for Missouri State this year. All things considered, I make Missouri State about 4 points better than the Redbirds on a neutral court. It’s their road woes to date that I am concerned with.
On the Money
This game opened Missouri State -2 and was pounced on quickly by bettors last night, leaving some +1 and +1.5 for those of us inclined to take the Bears with the points. It’s understandable why that position was taken quickly, considering that Missouri State hasn’t won on the road yet. The Bears are 8-7 ATS, including a 5-3 mark away from Springfield.
Illinois State is 5-8 ATS with an even 3-3 ATS record at home. They find themselves on a 1-4 ATS run, opposite of the Bears’ 4-1 run. As a home favorite this season, the Redbirds are 3-1 outright but 1-3 ATS. With such a short number tonight, I think you have to respect their straight up record more than the ATS perspective.
The Bears went 2-1 ATS in their last three games as Road Dogs, including that close loss at Loyola to open conference play as a 6-point dog. I rate Loyola about 7 points better than Illinois State, corresponding with the -1 opener. Moving through the zero will probably be irrelevant when this one is all said and done, but I will take the Bears +1.5 and look for them to get their first road win of the season.
