The NFL may have left us stranded today (unless you REALLY need to watch the Pro Bowl), but the college hoops slate has a good mix of power- and small-conference action. I’m coming with another pair of handicaps after yesterday’s featured sides went 1-1. Drexel (+8.5) was too sloppy to hold an eight-point second-half lead, but Arkansas State took my +1 and dominated Troy with a 78-62 win. Saddle up, because it’s time to ride with the Road Dog Report for 1/26/2020.
(827) Monmouth @ Iona -2
The 11-7 Monmouth Hawks take a short trip north to New Rochelle for a MAAC showdown with the 5-9 Iona Gaels. Iona’s interim coach Tra Arnold has steadied the ship in the wake of losing longtime coach to health issues earlier this season. They’ve won their last two at home to bring their record at the Hynes Athletic Center up to 2-3. Monmouth has been much better at home than on the road, where they have won only three of nine.
Who Needs a Forward?
Monmouth currently sits at 5-2 in the MAAC but must learn to win on the road to maintain their share of the conference lead with Quinnipiac. They won at Siena then lost at Quinnipiac and Manhattan. I have the Hawks rated about four points better on a neutral court, and find that their composition has not changed much since handicapping them on January 10th. They have a pesky defense that excels at creating turnovers, and Monmouth must convert them to points if they want to take control of this game.
Lacking a true inside game, they rely heavily on their guard play anchored by Deion Hammond and Ray Salnave. Keep an eye on 6’3″, 195-pound Marcus McClary, who has stepped up his contribution during the Hawks’ three-game winning streak. McClary’s two double-doubles supported the 30-40 points that Hammond and Salnave regularly provide. Monmouth has been much more efficient in their use of the thee-point shot in MAAC play; relying on it less but hitting 37.7%. This is key, considering that Iona is letting opponents hit 41.3% of their shots from downtown.
Iona, on the other hand, has a dangerous inside game with 6’9″ Tajuan Agee. If Agee stays out of foul trouble he can be a menace for the Hawks this afternoon. I called Agee and 6’6″ guard E.J. Crawford the pillars of this Gaels squad in the January 17th Road Dog Report. This has not changed in the last ten days. Minnesota transfer Isaiah Washington got the starting job in the last three games and followed through with the strong play that he’s shown since earlier this month.
An interesting wrinkle for the Gaels is an uptick in three-point shooting. Is this a product of Coach Cluess’ absence or a matter of necessity when they get behind in games? They’ve taken the 3rd-most shots in the MAAC from downtown but have made just 34.1% of them. Asante Gist appears to a barometer for their perimeter shooting; if his three-point shots are falling, Monmouth could be in for a shootout. In my opinion, Tajuan Agee is Iona’s key to nailing down an important win this afternoon.
On the Money
Monmouth’s 10-8 ATS record received a shot in the arm from their current 5-2 ATS run. The Hawks are a more modest 6-5 ATS away from home, although they have covered four of their last five in the Road Dog role (2-1 in conference). Iona has not been good to their backers, posting a 3-10-1 ATS record and 1-3-1 ATS at home. The good news is that the Gaels have gone 1-0-1 ATS in their last two home games.
These squads played in West Long Branch on January 5th to a 73-61 Monmouth win. Note that the line closed at a pick ’em for their previous matchup and today’s number sits at Iona -2. This shows that the books have adjusted these teams away from each other by about 2-3 points when a modest home court advantage is included. Anything on the plus side is a take, making Monmouth +2 a play for me.
(833) Quinnipiac @ Siena -4.5
The Road Dog Report for 1/26/2020 doubles down on the MAAC, as the 10-7 Quinnipiac Bobcats move into upstate New York to battle the 8-9 Siena Saints. Siena looks to defend their perfect 8-0 home record against a 3-5 road team in Quinnipiac. The Bobcats feel some urgency in cracking this home dominance to keep pace with Monmouth atop the MAAC standings.
How can the Bobcats do it? First, their perimeter shooting must be on point. They’ve taken the most three-point shots in the MAAC, yet have made only 34.8% of them. Guard Tyrese Williams has a lot to do with this, as he is either a sharpshooter or ice cold from beyond the arc. Otherwise, Quinnipiac’s offensive success essentially comes down to guard Rich Kelly and forward 6’8″, 245-pound Kevin Marfo. Marfo is a beast on the glass, averaging 13.8 RPG with nearly 5 offensive boards per contest and is 75.9% from the line. His effectiveness is very important considering that Aussie Jacob Rigoni has really fallen off lately.
Strength on Strength
Bobcat guard Rich Kelly is the heart and soul of the Quinnipiac offense. He moves the ball well, is 41.4% from downtown, and takes advantage when he gets to the line (86.7% FT). Kelly’s backcourt mates will be tested by Siena’s 6’4″ Jalen Pickett and his fourteen double-doubles this season. The sophomore has a nose for the ball around the rim and distributes the ball effectively.
Ironically, Pickett was left out of the discussion when I handicapped Siena on January 9th. The key personnel in that breakdown were 6’8″ Elijah Burns and 6’6″ Manny Camper. Camper and his nine double-doubles continues to be of the MAAC’s most versatile players. Notre Dame transfer Elijah Burns is still wreaking havoc in the league as a dangerous scorer. Quinnipiac’s stout defense will be tested this afternoon in a major way. They’ve allowed 38.3% shooting against MAAC opponents, but the Saints are hitting 43.8%.
Today’s battle features several strength-on-strength matchups. Siena’s scoring against Quinnipiac’s defense is a big one. These squads are two of the conference’s best rebounding teams so expect a lot of activity around the rim and the potential for personal fouls. The Bobcats have committed the least amount of fouls in the MAAC but have drawn a paltry 67 in seven games. Siena commits their fair share of fouls and draws even more. However, they’ve been lackluster at the line by making only 68.9% of their shots. Assuming that Quinnipiac does not get into foul trouble early, Siena’s shooting from the charity stripe could make the difference in which team covers this one.
On the Money
Quinnipiac is 4-4 ATS away from home and 11-6 ATS overall this season. They’ve split their two MAAC road games straight up, but were unable to cover either one. Siena has not backed up their undefeated home record against the number. They are 4-4 ATS at home and 6-11 ATS overall. The Saints just covered a big -11.5 spread Friday night after seven straight unsuccessful bids as a favorite.
Outside of Friday’s 13-point win over Marist, Siena has come away with a pair of 3-point conference home victories against St. Peter’s (-6.5) and Monmouth (-7). Those teams and today’s competitors are generally in the same ratings clump, so one could easily argue that today’s line is a point or two short. This means I’m not getting great value, but that’s not the only thing I look for in a handicap. When combining my ratings with the teams’ recent performances, I have this as a single-possession outcome and will gladly take the +4.5 with Quinnipiac.
