Thursday offers a healthy college hoops slate to dive into. As much as I want to crank out full breakdowns on several key matchups I’m playing, I need to stay focused. As most of you know, balance in life is essential and my love for handicapping college hoops and the MLB has to fit cleanly in about 3-4 hours/day. This season’s featured handicaps have fallen short of my standards, so all I can do is keep providing you the intel that I consider in my wagers. Gotta get a move on this morning, but not before I deliver a solo shot in the Road Dog Report for 1/23/2020.
Some details in my handicaps like last night’s Western Carolina/Mercer matchup I’d prefer not to come to fruition. Case in point: “Mercer’s guard play is scary when Dimitrijevic, Stair, and Gary are on fire.” The Bears’ Big 3 finished with 61 points, outlasting WCU’s Dotson & Faulkner who mustered 45 between the two of them. Mercer capitalized in the late game by going 18-20 from the line and getting a big league win and the cover. Other than in the early going, the Catamounts never held much of a lead that would have forced Mercer into a tough situation down the stretch.
(611) Drexel @ Northeastern -8
The 12-8 Drexel Dragons roll into Matthews Arena to square off against the 10-9 Northeastern Huskies. Both teams have been competitive in the Colonial Athletic Association with Drexel at 5-2 and Northeastern at 4-3. The Dragons are playing good ball right now, having won seven of their last nine. They must improve on their 2-6 road record if they want to remain competitive in the CAA.
We’ll see this evening whether Drexel is finding their groove or not. They just notched a pair of 20+ point victories at home against Elon and William & Mary. Northeastern, however, is anything but a pushover and is much stiffer competition than Elon. The Huskies run a guard-heavy lineup since they are without 6’8″ forward Tomas Murphy. 6’9″ Greg Ebogdodin gives them a big inside presence, although he is foul-prone and is not a reliable scorer.
Who’s Hot Tonight?
Jordan Roland is the Huskies’ #1 scoring threat, averaging 23.1 PPG. What’s even scarier is what he’s done in the last three games: 99 points on 34-61 shooting, including 17-30 from beyond the arc. The Dragons must absolutely blanket this guy if they don’t want him to drop 40 on them. Tyson Walker moves the ball well and his scoring production fluctuates game-to-game, but I have to expect about 15 points from him. Although Bolden Brace was a no-show in their last game, he is otherwise a strong scorer and rebounder.
Drexel is top-loaded with a core of three players. 6’8″ James Butler is a beast on the boards, having put up double-doubles in 13 of his 20 games. He’s hitting a solid 51.3% from the field but leaves a lot of room for improvement at the free throw line. Camren Wynter and Zach Walton round out the Dragons’ main threats at the guard position. The 6’6″ Walton is good rebounder and was a big scoring contributor in their last two blowout wins, averaging nearly 20 points in those contests. Wynter is a rock-solid conductor of this Drexel offense who delivers 37+ minutes for his squad. He has been on fire since Christmas, putting up over 22 PPG in the last seven games.
Drexel’s good defense and excellent rebounding will be tested by Northeastern’s strong guard lineup. Both squads have played clean baseball in their seven conference games, so I don’t expect much sloppiness tonight. The Dragons can only hope to keep Jordan Roland around 30 points, but the key for them is to minimize Tyson Walker and Bolden Brace if they want to hang in this one. I rate Northeastern about three points better than Drexel on a neutral court, and the Huskies have not been an overwhelming force at home.
On the Money
Drexel is 9-10 ATS and has covered three straight. They are 4-5 ATS away from home and have split both road league games to date. Northeastern is 8-11 ATS but only 1-6 ATS at home. The Huskies are 0-3 ATS as home favorites in their CAA games, having beaten a bad Elon team and then losing outright to William & Mary and Hofstra.
Let’s look at a couple comparable matchups these teams have shared. Both teams beat Elon on their home courts, although Drexel’s 22-point margin of victory outshines the 77-68 win by Northeastern. The market clearly respects the Huskies by a bigger margin than I do. Drexel laid -7.5 against Elon while Northeastern laid a whopping -14 for a 6.5-point difference.
Another comp is William & Mary, who the Huskies lost to by 2 points as a 7-point favorite. The Tribe was Drexel’s last opponent who they actually caught 3 points from at home, then proceeded to defeat them by 27 points. That’s a 10-point difference in price, although Northeastern was fresh off of a three-game win streak before facing William & Mary. Expectations are clearly higher for Northeastern, who has the better team and the most dynamic player on the court tonight. That said, I will take the +8 with a Drexel squad that is playing very good ball right now and could actually challenge Northeastern for the win if Zach Walton delivers another superb game.
