Yesterday’s handicap on Canisius simply did not come to fruition. However, this weekend presents a ton of opportunities including our play in the NFL Divisional Round. My college hoops card is loaded up with this big Saturday slate, but I’ve focused on three matchups in the Road Dog Report for 1/11/2020.
Looking back at Friday’s Canisius/Monmouth game, it was clear in the first half that the Griffins were off their rhythm. “X-factor” Scott Hitchon got into foul trouble early and only offered 15 minutes of limited effectiveness. Malik Johnson had a terrible shooting night and turned the ball over seven times. I think that Canisius had 13 turnovers at the half, creating a huge hole that the Griffs could not dig out of against a Monmouth team that played very well. Let’s check out today’s action…
(663) Coastal Carolina @ UT Arlington -5.5
The last time we put in work on the 10-7 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, they collapsed in the second half at Texas State. Thursday’s handicap for Coastal looked at Devante Jones and freshman Keishawn Brewton as key players while acknowledging that Texas State could pose a size problem in the front court.
The 6-11 UT Arlington Mavericks come in with a 2-4 record in the Sun Belt. They’ve won four of seven in Arlington but have struggled to string together wins on their current 2-7 run. Some positivity could be surrounding this UTA team after getting a solid 66-56 win vs. Appalachian State on Thursday.
Front court mismatches and a dominant Nijal Pearson plagued the Chants against Texas State, despite big games from Jones and Brewton. I do not see the same problem today against Arlington. The Mavericks run a pair of big men out for a majority of the floor time. 6’9″, 230-pound Jabari Narcis can be a rebounding threat but is not a reliable scorer. 6’7″ Jordan Phillips has had flashes of brilliance, though those are few and far between. Additionally, they do not have a stud player like Pearson despite 6’4″ guard David Azore being a proficient bomber and distributor.
On the Money
Coastal’s last loss knocked them down to 7-8 ATS and 2-5 ATS away from home. I thought they were in a prime spot against Texas State to get the upset win, but clearly they were unable to capitalize. UTA is 6-7-2 ATS and 2-3 ATS at home. The Mavericks snapped a three-game no-cover streak as home favorites with the win over Appalachian State, laying 5.5 points.
Oddsmakers appear to have taken note of this 10-point win, as my ratings put AppState about 3 points worse than Coastal. I give a slight edge to the Mavericks here but adjustments for the offensive matchups tilt this slightly in favor of the Chants. Can they bounce back from their recent letdown? It is certainly possible, and the +5.5 makes Coastal a play in case they find themselves down a bucket late.
(779) Nevada @ Utah State -8.5
Nevada takes their 10-6 record on the road against the 13-5 former Top 25-ranked Utah State Aggies. The Aggies look to snap out of a funk after dropping three straight to bring their Mountain West Conference record down to 2-3. Good news is that they’re 8-1 at home and have won ten of thirteen games as favorites.
The Wolf Pack has won half of their eight games away from home, though they just dropped a close one at San Jose State. Nevada’s loss to SJSU was somewhat of a WTF moment as the Spartans are a step down in class. That said, they’ve taken a couple big beatings at the hands of solid competition in Davidson and BYU. They face solid competition again tonight in Logan, where they need to pick up a big conference win and move to 4-1 in the MWC.
Utah State has seen their fortunes take a turn for the worse lately. They’ve dropped three in a row, including a home loss to 16-0 San Diego State. No shame there, though the losses at Air Force and at UNLV are certainly games they’d like to have back. Rebounding against Nevada to claw their way back towards the top of the conference standings would be a good start for them.
Size Matters!
The Aggies are big at all five positions. This should worry Nevada coach Steve Alford since he does not have a legitimate front court presence to counter the Aggies’ forwards, 6’7″ Justin Bean and 6’6″ Alphonso Anderson. Bean is a double-double machine with ten such games and a handful of near-misses. Anderson had been a reliable high-percentage shooting threat but has been MIA in their last three games.
Utah State’s size extends into their backcourt, which is led by 6’5″, 210-pound stud guard Sam Merrill. Merrill is connecting from downtown at a 40% clip and capitalizes at the free throw line, shooting 87% from the stripe. Brock Miller and Diogo Brito join him at the guard position, but they’ve been downright underwhelming of late despite their size.
Nevada has to get superb production out of guards Jazz Johnson and Jalen Harris. Johnson, the 5’10”, 195-pound senior, can shoot the lights out. The Pack needs a big performance from him since forwards like Zane Meeks cannot be relied upon to get Nevada backers to the window. Johnson’s mates, Jalen Harris and Lindsey Drew provide size at the guard position as well as quick hands on the defensive end. Harris and Drew have rounded into form as scorers and certainly need to pull their weight tonight.
On the Money
The Aggies have been a blowtorch to their backers’ tickets this season with a 5-11 ATS record. This improves some at home, where they are 3-4 ATS. Utah State’s early-season success eventually led to inflated prices and they have lagged the market by going 1-9 ATS in their last ten games. In fact, they haven’t covered as a favorite since the November 22nd game at LSU!
Despite being 0-4 straight up as a dog, Nevada is 9-7 ATS and 5-3 ATS away from home. They’ve been a Road Dog only twice; the aforementioned blowout losses at BYU and Davidson. The Pack is 3-3 ATS after covering five in a row, so I cannot say that this team is currently outperforming the market. It’s not pretty, but the number in this one is favorable. Taking the +8.5 with Nevada is based on my ratings and Utah State failing to cover seven straight spots as a favorite.
(781) Cal Baptist @ Grand Canyon -3
The Cal Baptist Lancers are quickly becoming one of our favorite teams this season. They were the subject of Wednesday’s Road Dog Report and find themselves back in the thick of things today. Cal Baptist takes their 11-5 record to Phoenix to take on the 5-10 Grand Canyon Antelopes. GCU is playing only their second WAC game this season, dropping the first to Bakersfield last weekend.
As noted in my previous handicap, the Lancers are led offensively by Milan Acquaah and Ferron Flavors, Jr. Success in tonight’s game may very well depend on De’Jon Davis and 6’11”, 245-pound Zach Pirog. You won’t necessarily see Davis’ good play in the box score, as his key contribution needs to be great defense against GCU’s bigs. If Pirog can follow up his best game of the season at Bakersfield with another solid performance, Baptist has a legitimate shot at winning this outright.
Grand Canyon’s ace in the hole is turnovers. They typically hold a strong turnover margin against their opponents, granting them key extra possessions. If they can’t turn over the Lancers and/or slow them down, they will need huge games from their power duo. 6’10” Italian Alessandro Lever and 6’3″ guard Carlos Johnson provide the lion’s share of the Antelopes’ offense. Alessandro is dominant down low and can knock down the occasional three-pointer. Johnson is an important scoring threat and is joined by freshman, Jovan Blacksher, Jr., who has given this team a ton of good minutes.
On the Money
The Lancers are a cash machine at 10-4 ATS, including 3-1 ATS on the road. They’ve covered eight of their last nine, as opposed to Grand Canyon’s failure to cover in five of their last seven. The Antelopes are 4-10 ATS but have been much better at home, posting a 3-4 ATS mark in their house. It should be noted that GCU covered their last two spots as home favorites.
Let’s be honest about this one. Being on the other side of Alessandro is worrisome, but these teams are mirror opposites when it comes to covering the spread. Three points protect my wager against being on the wrong side of a tight game. However, I rate Cal Baptist a tick higher than four points better than Grand Canyon. Is the wrong team favored here? Maybe, maybe not…but give me the +3 yet again with this Lancers team that continues to be undervalued.
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