Conference play continues to be quality entertainment for the fans. For handicappers like myself, it adds some tricky angles that you cannot ignore. These teams know each other well, which can emphasize scheme and coaching more than in non-conference games. I’m dialed in on one such matchup in the MAAC in the Road Dog Report for 1/10/2020.
Yesterday’s college basketball action was full of highs and lows. Thursday’s handicap focused on a St. Peter’s team that was outperforming the market, especially on the road. They faced Siena, who had yet to lose at home but was struggling to cover those games. The outcome? No surprise, but Siena defended their home court yet again while the Peacocks got the cover.
In the Lone Star State, Texas State’s Nijal Pearson was every bit of the guy that we highlighted. Pearson had the hot hand, averaging 24 points over the last three games. Nijal dropped 29 points last night en route to a huge second-half comeback that sunk my Coastal Carolina +4 ticket. Chop ’em up and ride on…
(831) Canisius @ Monmouth -4.5
The 5-9 Canisius Golden Griffins head east to West Long Branch to face the 7-6 Monmouth Hawks. Both squads look to catch a groove in MAAC play; the Griffins have started slowly with an 0-3 mark in conference, while the Hawks split their two games 1-1. Monmouth has defended the OceanFirst Bank Center successfully in all four of their home games this season.
Canisius has struggled on the road, winning only one of their seven away games. They’re mired in a five-game losing streak that includes dropping their last two games at home. Pace is not one of the Golden Griffins’ attributes and now it’s been reduced even more in their league games. I expect another slower-paced, low-scoring showdown between these two tonight.
Neither team has imposing size that will come into play in the front court. Canisius 6’8″, 215-pound forward Scott Hitchon is a high-percentage scorer who can knock down the occasional three-pointer. Teams must respect Hitchon when he spreads out the offense, which can open the floor for their smaller guards. The offense runs through 5’10” senior Malik Johnson, who is a great distributor but can be a liability with turnovers. One kid to keep an eye on is the creative freshman guard Majesty Brandon. Brandon has come on strong sine the Buffalo game, putting up points in a variety of ways.
Monmouth sports a very good backcourt night in and night out. Guards Deion Hammond and the consistent Ray Salnave are a lock to put up 30+ points together each night. Hammond has been lighting it up since Thanksgiving, though he relies on the perimeter shot too much at times. He’s a 36% shooter from beyond the arc, so who can blame him? Their main big man, senior 6’8″, 201-pound Mustapha Traore, has been disappointing more often than not this season.
This game shapes up to be a battle of the backcourts, with an edge going to Monmouth’s duo. Juniors Hammond and Salnave have the experience together to outshine Brandon and Johnson, although the Griffins’ duo should not be overlooked. Tonight’s X-factor must be Scott Hitchon if the Griffs are going to keep this game close and cover the 4.5. I make Canisius 1/2-point better on a neutral court with my core ratings.
On the Money
Monmouth has matched their 7-6 ATS record with their 7-6 straight up mark. The Hawks are on a 6-3 ATS run and have posted a 2-2 ATS record at home. In the role of home favorite, they are 3-1 straight up but only 1-3 ATS. Monmouth throttled a struggling Iona team as a home pick ’em on Sunday but has not been good laying points at home otherwise.
On the flip side, Canisius has outperformed the betting market when playing away from home. They are 6-2-1 ATS on the road (all as dogs) and 8-5-1 overall. The Griffs last two non-covers came as home favorites, which is a role they have not excelled in.
An interesting comp is Siena, a MAAC team they both played against on the road recently. Both were 7-point dogs to the Saints and both covered that number in one-score games. (Canisius lost 73-72 and Monmouth lost 75-72.) This recent comp lines up with my core ratings, so I have to ask why is Monmouth laying 4.5 points this evening?
Regarding the number, this game shares some similarities to last night’s St. Peter’s/Siena matchup. A team that gets the money as a Road Dog faces a familiar foe who wins at home, but covers much less frequently. I took the +4.5 with Canisius tonight, expecting a tight game down to the wire where possessions are at a premium. No OT, please!
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