First and foremost, Happy New Year! 2020 is here and I’d like to make my 18-24 start to the NCAAB season last year’s news. Air Force sent 2019 out with a giant thud as my UC Riverside ticket was bombed out by the Falcons. It did not take long to realize that the Highlanders’ stout defense was no match for the AFA sharpshooters. With that behind me, let’s jump right into the Road Dog Report for 1/1/2020.
(829) Connecticut @ Cincinnati -3
Hoops action in the American Athletic Conference kicks off on New Year’s Day with conference powerhouses Connecticut and Cincinnati. UConn enters with a strong 9-3 record as Cincy looks to start conference play on the right foot and improve on their 7-5 mark. The Bearcats have held down the fort at Fifth Third Arena, losing only one of their six home games. The Huskies leave their friendly confines for only the fifth time this season.
A key matchup today will take place down low, as Huskies 6’10” forward Josh Carlton takes on 7’1″ center Chris Vogt. Vogt has continued his strong play after transferring from Northern Kentucky. Keith Williams and Chris Vogt are high-percentage shooting stalwarts and should be the primary points of emphasis for Coach Dan Hurley. Hurley may push Carlton on the offensive end to challenge Vogt and put him in an unfavorable foul situation.
Seniors Jarron & Jaevin Cumberland are savvy players that know how to get to the free throw line and take advantage. Their perimeter shooting has been less impactful but they’ll be saddled with the task of neutralizing UConn guards Christian Vital and Alterique Gilbert. Gilbert is another guy who can make hay from the charity stripe despite being less than stellar from the field this year.
Either team has the talent and experience to get the win this evening. I doubt that either team’s backers want another 4-OT nail biter, but this this one should be another tense meeting between these teams. Despite the Huskies having a couple-point advantage in my core ratings, Cincinnati has earned a significant home court advantage to offset that. This fuzzy math points towards a toss-up, right? So let’s take a look at that little something called a point spread…
On the Money
UConn has matched their 9-3 record by going 9-3 ATS, including 3-1 ATS away from home (neutral courts). Cincinnati has been less effective with a 3-9 ATS record, although they are 3-3 at home ATS. These teams’ mirror-opposite ATS results seem to paint a clear picture but I’ll dig a little bit deeper for the Road Dog Report for 1/1/2020.
Cincy’s ATS results are erratic, so I look to UConn’s performances in similar spots for comps. They’ve been underdogs in three games and covered two of them:
- 11/17 +4 vs. Florida (home), win & cover 62-59
- 11/22 +5 vs. Xavier (neutral), loss & cover 74-75
- 12/10 +2 vs. Indiana (neutral), loss & no cover 54-57
I rate all three of the above teams in a similar tier, about four to six points better than the Bearcats. Tonight’s +3 could very well be in play considering UConn has the talent to stay composed and take it down to the wire. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough to survive an end game death spiral if they happen to fall behind late. That said, I bet Connecticut after handicapping a tight win on the road with a critical +3 in case they get edged out at the buzzer.
