NASCAR Playoffs mainstay Kevin Harvick earned his free pass to the Championship 4 with a dominant win at Texas last week. He joins Martinsville winner Martin Truex, Jr. with that distinction, leaving only two open slots for the finale in Miami. It’s do-or-die for two-thirds of the contenders, so let’s get right after it with the BetCrushers’ NASCAR Phoenix race preview.
Harvick’s win at the AAA Texas 500 led the way for a much-appreciated clean sweep of our four wagers. A double-down on two +115 matchups with Happy Harvick was a big rebound from the failed double play on Jimmie Johnson at Martinsville the week before. Kevin’s checkered flag also ensured that another one of our Championship futures tickets will be live next weekend.
Last Chance for Homestead
Only two drivers should feel safe heading into the Bluegreen Vacations 500 this weekend: Martin Truex, Jr. and Kevin Harvick. Four of the other six contenders will be eliminated just like that in the Arizona desert. Although Kyle Busch and Joey Logano have sizable cushions above the cut line, a win by a driver in position 5-8 would push one of them out of the picture.
It is not unreasonable to think that any of the drivers on the outside looking in could win Sunday’s race. Between the four of them, they’ve registered six Top 5 finishes in the past four races at ISM Raceway. If Hamlin, Blaney, Larson, or Elliott are even close to the lead late in the race, you better believe that the slim playoff points differential between Kyle and Joey at the beginning of the day will be a factor.
I can’t say that we stuck our necks out there in August’s NASCAR Playoffs handicapping preview by calling for Harvick and Truex to make the Championship 4. After all, they are two of the most successful drivers on the Cup Series circuit and have taken home the hardware from Homestead in recent few years. Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin/Brad Keselowski were slated to round out our final contenders, and Busch and Hamlin are both still very well in it given strong performances and/or a little help from Lady Luck in the Bluegreen Vacations 500.
Phoenix ISM Raceway Details
The 1-mile ISM Raceway tri-oval was built in Phoenix’s West Valley in 1964. It has been reconfigured several times, most recently in 2018. This tri-oval is unconventional by way of its dogleg between turns 4 and 1. The dogleg is a wide section of track that deviates from the progressive-banked turns and more level straightaways. ISM Raceway’s unique configuration emphasizes the importance of driver familiarity and recent past success when handicapping races here.
Recent renovations to the facility made a huge step forward for Phoenix Raceway. Improvements to the infield, grandstand, and pit road will serve the track well as the venue for the 2020 NASCAR Championship race. Another interesting change was moving the start/finish line prior to last year’s fall race. Now it’s right before the dogleg, making for exciting restarts and a dramatic final lap. This change drew a lot of attention from the drivers at last year’s playoff race:
Weekend Schedule
The Cup Series action starts on Friday afternoon with the first of two practice sessions. They’ll be held around 4:00 and 7:00 ET, nerfing the importance of the later runs since the track conditions in late afternoon will likely differ from those experienced during the race. Qualifying runs start on Saturday at 2:00 ET, about 24 hours before the green flag is scheduled to drop on Sunday.
Who to Back at Phoenix?
Kyle Busch
When the Bluegreen Vacations 500 odds opened on Tuesday, we agreed that Kyle Busch deserved to sit atop the board. He gets this position from oddsmakers on nearly a weekly basis, though rarely is it supported by merit. At Phoenix, however, we concur that he should be the clear favorite.
For this race, there’s no person better to start with than Kyle Busch. Kyle is the defending champion at Phoenix, and is the favorite to be a back-to-back-to-back winner here. He won at ISM Raceway this spring and locked up his spot in the Championship race last year with a win. Oddly enough, his 2018 NASCAR Playoffs win was his first at Phoenix since 2005.
Busch’s long drought between wins in 2005 and 2017 was full of ups-and-downs until the fall of 2015. From that race forward, he finished outside the Top 5 only once (7th) and had a pair of runner-ups in those eight races. Despite his current position on the right side of the playoff cut line, Kyle has both motive and opportunity to vie for a win this weekend. A win by one of the four guys below the cut line could very well knock him out.
From a handicapping perspective, the problem is price. Kyle deserves to be the headline driver but there is a considerable lack of return by backing him to win. +300 implies a razor-thin margin, while -134 to finish in the Top 3 seems lackluster. If only there was a better way to back Kyle Busch at a track that’s been his honey hole for five years now.
Group A: Kyle Busch +216
Mad props to our NASCAR handicapping colleague @NASCARStyleOdds for finding a creative way to get behind Busch this week. Group A is full of top-notch drivers (and two fellow JGR teammates) that pose a big challenge: Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex, Jr., and Kevin Harvick. Busch is a -145 favorite in his matchups against his group-mates, and we’re not interested in laying that much juice against these guys. We expect MTJ and Harvick to have strong runs despite being “safe”, though we concur that the Group A play is a Goldilocks spot that merges payout and probability with a guy with plenty of motivation.
Aric Almirola
AA is out of Championship contention but certainly not down for the count. Mediocre finishes during Round 1 of the NASCAR Playoffs did not help the cause, although he responded with a pair of Top 5 finishes over the last five races. Unfortunately, 17th place was his best finish in the other three. We were impressed by Almirola’s runner-up finish in a clean Texas race last week, especially considering there was the possibility of his beef with Kyle Busch coming to a head with the #18 Toyota in contention.
Aric has shown significant progression as a Cup Series driver since his 2018 transition to Stewart-Haas Racing. Phoenix Raceway is a track that he’s grown into while driving the #10 car, placing 7th, 4th, and 4th in his last three here. AA showed this progression at Las Vegas, Talladega, and Texas. A 13th at Vegas to kick off the 2019 postseason was less than great, but Almirola’s advancement at Talladega and Texas culminated in 4th and runner-up finishes on those two tracks this fall. We expect a similarly strong showing for him at Phoenix.
Aric Almirola -120 vs. Clint Bowyer
AA has outperformed Clint Bowyer at Phoenix in twelve of fifteen races they’ve both run. Even more impressive, he beat Clint in all seven of his fall runnings here. Is Bowyer mailing it in as the postseason drags along? Or is Almirola staying focused in the playoffs regardless of his status? We think it is a combination of the two, warranting a play on this head-to-head. Despite ticking up to -120 from the opener, this is still a strong play considering that Bowyer has been historically inferior to Almirola in the Phoenix fall race.
Group D: Aric Almirola +259 (1/2 unit)
Group D consists of Aric Almirola, William Byron, Alex Bowman, and Daniel Suarez. Betting the group matchups requires a reasonable return on a driver that clearly stands out among the others. Aric’s back-to-back 4th place finishes and four straight Top 10s does just that. In fact, those finishes beat out all three of his group-mates’ in those four races. We’ll gladly take +259 to extend his run to five straight Phoenix races where he’s beaten Byron, Bowman, and Suarez.
Final BetCrushers Betting Card at Phoenix
- Kyle Busch +216 in Group A (vs. Hamlin, Truex, Harvick)
- Aric Almirola +259 in Group D (vs. Byron, Bowman, Suarez) @ 1/2 unit
- Aric Almirola -120 vs. Clint Bowyer
