It was Bristol Baby! Brad Keselowski positioned himself advantageously and parlayed Chase Elliott’s miscue into another Sunday win. Now NASCAR circles back to where it left off in March for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Let’s see if the boys can keep the action hot.
NASCAR is executing its catch up plan quite well, making up most of the races lost during the COVID-19 hiatus. The schedule reopened with five Cup races across three Sundays. After a much needed break this week, the teams will be back in the blender with Atlanta on Sunday, Martinsville on Wednesday, then Homestead the following Sunday. Before we get too far into the future, what do we unpack from Bristol?
Revisiting the Battle at Bristol
Look, by no means did I go out on a limb calling last week’s handicap the Battle at Bristol. A race-ending crash between two cars battling for the lead is just so, so Bristol. The World’s Fastest Half-Mile is well-known for its close-quarters racing and physicality. That’s why we approach Bristol races by looking for survivors. Our highlighted veterans Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, and Ryan Newman were impressive. The 7-time NASCAR Champion crossed the finish line with the lead pack yet again, bashing his way to a 3rd place finish behind Bowyer. The way he got there was, well, let’s say a tad aggressive. Considering who the “victim” was, you could say Jimmie’s swat to Ricky “Mr. Excitement” Stenhouse, Jr.’s car was fitting.
It wasn’t a shove, but Chase Elliott’s tail lashing of Joey Logano in the closing laps was even more significant. These drivers were battling hard for the lead and it appeared that Chase got a tad loose while racing Joey up the track. Logano and the #22 Penske team were clearly not impressed. This is the third time this year young Mr. Elliott has been eliminated from race contention with very few laps to go. He has a long way to go to reach Stenhouse-level shenanigans, but Chase is starting to earn himself a reputation for drama.
Don’t Look Now, the Deuce is Loose!
Race winner Brad Keselowski has been in the mix more often than not this season. The results are there, and now with two wins in the young season he’s in good position when the postseason rolls around. Brad has led 341 laps in 2020’s nine races with six Top 10 finishes. Also consider that outside of Daytona, Keselowski has finished no worse than 13th. Now he’s on a heater after winning the coveted Coca-Cola 600 then prevailing at Bristol. Guess what else? Kes is traditionally white hot at Atlanta.
How Did the 3-Step Plan Fare?
Our early week handicapping established three key approaches for our betting at Bristol. We executed by taking six positions, with two in each area. Step 1 involved fading Martin Truex, Jr. in matchups with Ryan Blaney and Kevin Harvick.
Spins at Bristol don’t necessarily ruin the chances of a decent finish. You know what does? Having your front end ripped off by Ty Dillon. The matchup looked promising for a while, with Blaney in a fast car and Truex waffling in the middle of the pack. Then Ty bobbed when he should have weaved and ended this prong of the fade plan.
The good news is that Harvick had the speed and short-track state of mind to get back in it after a dust up – just in time for Truex to get collected by Jimmie Johnson’s act of aggression on Ricky Stenhouse.
Step 2 was a thing of stressful beauty. I pitted Ryan Newman, one of our un-sexy battle-tested veterans, against Aric Almirola and fellow old timer Matt Kenseth. Newman stopped my heart a few times with his two spin outs, but at least he kept his nose clean. He lost track position each time, but avoided damage and never went a lap down. Newman’s tenacity led to a 15th place finish, a finish that actually would have been better except for the chaos induced by the Elliott-Logano crash. Almirola worried me as he stayed in the thick of the main pack, that is, until he joined MTJ in the collateral damage from the Jimmie/Ricky smackdown. Kenseth had a mediocre race, allowing Newman to clear him for a +155 matchup return.
Plenty of Smoke, but No Fire
Step 3 involved Top 10 positions on Matt DiBenedetto and Clint Bowyer. DiBenedetto failed to menace with a costly speeding penalty followed by a broken tie rod. The equipment failure cemented another big disappointment at Bristol for Matty D and killed our Top 10 position on him. The most controversial position of the day, in my household at least, was supporting Clint Bowyer. I was very comfortable with a -106 price for a Top 10 finish. It felt very much like one of my Kurt Busch bets. Except this time, I had to fade my wife’s prop bet that the #14 Mustang catches on fire. The pressure was on, but Clint prevailed and stuck the runner-up finish. This evened out DiBenedetto’s failure and secured a nice day at the track for us.
Better Late Than Never
Atlanta Motor Speedway’s 1997 rebirth transitioned the track from a standard oval to the current quad-oval configuration. Think Charlotte just a couple short weeks ago or Texas Motor Speedway in terms of comparisons. Plans to resurface Atlanta fell apart a few years ago, meaning the current surface dates to 1997. Atlanta’s worn surface has strategic implications for tire wear, though perhaps wear management isn’t quite as critical here as at Darlington or Fontana. Atlanta’s pavement gets a mixed reaction from Cup Series drivers.
“Atlanta Motor Speedway is definitely one of my favorite racetracks,” Clint Bowyer said. “The worn out surface is the best; I hate repaves! I get excited when we go there. The speed, how the tires fall off, how you’re able to run all over the racetrack make it great.”
atlantamotorspeedway.com – October 18, 2019
The Ford Years in Atlanta
Ownership of the checkered flag at Atlanta Motor Speedway has shifted from Toyota to Chevy to Ford in recent years. Chevrolet took over from Toyota in 2014, kicking of a three-year run of success here. But 2017 marked the advent of the Fords, with Kevin Harvick sneaking in a victory between Brad Keselowski’s 2017 & 2019 wins. Oddsmakers are not overlooking Harvick this week, and for good reason. Since taking over the Stewart-Haas #4 in 2014, he’s led an insane 960 laps at AMS. The two-time Atlanta winner has Top 10 finishes in eight of the last nine races here and four stage wins in the three races since NASCAR adopted the current points system.
The thing is, Kevin and his team are anything but satisfied with these results. A speeding penalty nullified the 292 laps led in the 2017 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500, leaving him with a 9th place finish. Then there was 2014, where he had the pole, led 195 laps, and ended up a very disappointing 19th due to …. feline intervention? It was dark at the time and the footage fuzzy, but the black cat that crossed in front of him may have been a sign:
Your Defending Champion
Keselowski, on the other hand, spent a lot less time up front than Harvick has. Brad led only 92 laps in the last three Atlanta races, though he sat in a threatening position throughout both the 2017 and 2018 contests. The most impressive run came last year, in the face of a 19th place start. After hanging outside the Top 10 for most of the race, Keselowski battled both the lingering effects of the stomach flu and Martin Truex, Jr. in the closing laps to seal the victory.
His 2019 Atlanta win came when the Folds of Honor 500 sat as the second race of the season. This victory propelled him into a four-race stretch where he was pure gas: 2nd at Las Vegas, 19th at Phoenix, 3rd at Fontana, and victory at Martinsville. NASCAR’s preseason schedule adjustment reset the QuikTrip 500 as the fifth race of 2020, just after Phoenix. Brad’s 7th in Vegas, 5th at Fontana, and 11th at Phoenix in 2020 draw a parallel to 2019’s hot run.
This time, Brad comes INTO Atlanta on fire. He fared well in the early season races. Then the #2 team hit Darlington, Charlotte, and Bristol with a vengeance. It is hard to fault Keselowski for “being in the right place at the right time” on occasion, especially because he’s done well to stay in striking range. That’s a bigger part of racing than some of us handicappers wish it to be. And if you’re in the camp that feels he’s been overly lucky, do you also believe in a contract year production boost?
The BetCrushers Betting Card
The opener featured the familiar trio of Harvick, Elliott, and Busch sitting on top of the board. Leading 960 laps over the last six races at Atlanta surely had a hand in earning Harvick the top spot. There’s one big theme tying pretty much everyone at 20/1 or better – speed! Atlanta’s high-banked quad-oval begs for the throttle, so no surprise that the fastest rides are the favorites. There’s no three-step plan to attack Atlanta like we laid out for Bristol. As far as I am concerned, it’s about speed and consistency in matchups and the Top 10 market.
Before we dive into the BetCrushers’ Atlanta Betting Card, let’s give Clint Bowyer some love. Clint is fresh off of a runner-up finish at Bristol and has put his best work in at Atlanta the last couple years. I’m tempted to lay -112 to back his bid for a Top 10 finish, but his situation is complicated. There’s a strong chance that Bowyer reverts to his 2011-17 days where he missed the Top 10 in seven straight. Plus, my wife is convinced he catches fire on Sunday. It’s only a matter of time, she says. Double or nothin’, she says.
Playing it Safe?
Brad Keselowski -115 vs. Alex Bowman
At least one book opened these two drivers on par but have since made a slight adjustment towards Bowman over Keselowski to win. The Hendrick Motorsports #88 team has given this kid a rocket Camaro and Bowman isn’t afraid to use it. He’s led an insane 369 laps in the young 2020 season, already exceeding last season’s total of 200 laps led. Alex qualified well in the early races – when there was qualifying – giving him a leg up over previous years’ comps. He held off the Busch boys to win at California and was runner-up in NASCAR’s return to racing at Darlington. Most would agree that this guy has the stuff to be a Cup Series stalwart.
The biggest problem with handicapping Alex Bowman is his inconsistency. Outside of those two stellar finishes, he’s failed to best 13th place in seven other races. Some of the poor results were rooted in bad luck, others were due to driver error. Conversely, I could just as easily argue that Brad Keselowski’s success in 2020 and at Atlanta in recent years has been just as much a product of good fortune. You’ve gotta be fast, have a strong pit team, and get some good breaks along the way to win on these fast quad-ovals. Oh, and by the way, the #2 team gets first dibs on pit stall selection this weekend. Brad starts Sunday’s race 6th; Bowman will be right behind him in 8th.
Bowman may very well stick a Top 3 finish on Sunday or even win the damn thing considering how much he’s been out front this season. Atlanta loves speed. Outside of the Daytona 500, Alex was only able to beat out Brad at California and Darlington. Keselowski has topped Bowman in four straight contests AND he’s been far more successful in both Charlotte races, a similar track. I would be fooling myself to not recognize that Bowman has the machine to win this race, or at least to threaten the leader with. And Brad’s run of good fortune may be due to fade away. However, I value consistency highly when betting matchups and Keselowski holds that trump card over Alex Bowman.
Kurt Busch -115 vs. Jimmie Johnson
It’s time for my weekly Kurt Busch segment. I know it’s starting to sound like a broken record player, so let’s start with the counter-argument. Jimmie Johnson’s #48 Hendrick Camaro is strong. I would even go as far to say it’s been consistently faster than Kurt’s. Johnson is a 5x Atlanta winner, with back-to-back wins in 2015 & 2016. More impressive is that those wins came from starting positions of 37th and 19th. Jimmie has delivered 16 Top 10 performances in 28 races here and five of his last ten are Top 5s.
But Jimmie’s high ceiling comes with a dark side. His 2020 performances seem to be a wicked combination of a fast car and a shortage of patience, with maybe a little short-timer syndrome thrown in. He’ll be a tough driver to beat, but he’s volatile and Kurt’s reliability tips the scales in my book. Six of his last seven finishes this season have been in 7th place or better with a 5-2 head-to-head record over Jimmie. Busch has comfortably beaten him in the three Atlanta races since JJ’s last wins here in 2015 & 2016. Kurt will begin the QuikTrip 500 in 12th position with Jimmie in 15th.
My handicap says that if he finishes in the Top 5, JJ wins Sunday’s matchup over three-time Atlanta winner Kurt Busch. It costs -420 to fade a Top 5 performance from Jimmie, which is way too pricy for my taste. A safer play could be a Top 10 position on Kurt, but only if it backs down closer to the -130 range (56.5%). This provides some cushion with my estimated hit rate around 60%. But the play we have locked up is the matchup between Atlanta champions, siding with Kurt Busch over Jimmie Johnson.
The Youth Movement
Erik Jones -115 vs. William Byron
This position is a perfect example of teamwork in handicapping. A quick conference with @NASCARstyleodds after 5Dimes’ matchup reveal on Tuesday led us simultaneously to Jones over Byron. (In fact, you can hear his take on the Playing the Odds NASCAR Style podcast.) William Byron has yet to threaten at Atlanta in his young career, posting 18th and 17th place finishes. Conversely, Erik Jones has incrementally improved each year here. The jump to Joe Gibbs Racing in 2018 certainly helped, bumping Erik from 14th, 11th, and then 7th last year.
Both drivers have quality rides in the #24 Hendrick Camaro and #20 JGR Camry. Since returning from the spring hiatus, Erik Jones has been understated but solid. He produced a pair of Top 10 efforts in Darlington, a respectable 11th in the Coca-Cola 600, and survived with a 5th place finish at Bristol. Erik’s Charlotte encore ended in major disappointment when a late-race pit penalty dropped him from 8th to a lap down. After the penalty, Byron comfortably topped Jones’ 26th place finish for his only head-to-head victory since NASCAR’s return at Darlington. We’re siding with Erik Jones in a pick ’em matchup against William Byron to capitalize on Jones being, overall, a notch above Byron. Plus Erik gets a slight advantage in the lineup, starting 14th with William in 20th.
Don’t Blink!
The boys are back with another mid-week race. Next stop for the NASCAR Cup Series is the shortest track on the circuit: Martinsville Speedway. You better believe we’re in for some Wednesday racing under the lights. Be sure to follow us on Twitter, check our NASCAR page, or subscribe for email alerts so you don’t miss our next handicap!
