The beauty – and sometimes frustration – of handicapping is that there is no universal method or “secret code” that holds the answer. Fortunately, Major League Baseball is blessed with a cult following of statistical-oriented minds that compile and make available volumes of data for us to use. You can pinpoint indicators and develop models to project the outcome of games, individual player performances, and almost anything else your handicapping little heart desires.
Our MLB analysis relies heavily on the expected performance of starting pitchers. Handicapping starters requires a combination of science (statistical analysis) and art (projecting the texture of the game) to arrive at a probable game scenario. There’s enough here to take up its own article, so we’ll move on for now.
Lineups can vary from day to day and bullpen usage depends on late-game context. However, we look at each team’s offense and bullpen as units over the course of a 162-game season. Simply stated, we apply data to a game-flow model to arrive at a probable outcome. This model is vital to the handicap but often doesn’t paint a quick and clear picture of each team’s characteristics. This is where the MLB Team Unit Ratings shine. BetCrushers is proud to present our MLB Team Unit Ratings with a big assist from data visualization tool Tableau.
Reading the Visualization
Aside from starting pitching and defense, we evaluate teams by Bullpen Effectiveness, Bullpen Efficiency, Offensive Productivity, and Offensive Efficiency. These attributes are rated on a scale of 0 to 100, as shown by the bar height and number in the Tableau visualization below. Granted, this is a simplified illustration of the data that comprise the ratings but it makes for a nice, quick visual impression on our MLB handicapping page.
Bullpen Ratings
The 2019 season emphasized the impact that relief pitching can have on games. Unfortunately, this impact seemed to be negative, with almost-nightly bullpen meltdowns. Except when inning-eaters like Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander take the mound, late innings can be heavily influenced by the effectiveness of a team’s relief unit.
Bullpen Effectiveness shows the regularity in which a team’s relievers get batters out. A bullpen with a higher rating does a better job of keeping the base paths clear than one with a lower rating. Bullpen Efficiency represents the tendency to limit scoring, even with runners on base. A low efficiency rating represents a bullpen that gives up runs easily, regardless of the frequency of allowing baserunners (Effectiveness).
The sample graphic shows four bullpens with varying levels of Effectiveness and Efficiency. Here, the Astros’ bullpen rates highly in both metrics, meaning they are very good at keeping men off base and making their opponents work harder to manufacture runs. The Angels are average when it comes to limiting runners, yet prone to allowing the home runs and extra base hits that can quickly change a ballgame.
Offensive Ratings
Baseball involves many layers of strategy – at the plate, on the mound, in the defensive alignment, and on the base paths. In most fans’ eyes, the perfect offensive strategy is getting men on base and seeing the slugger knock them in with a double in the gap or a big fly ball over the fence. Offensive Productivity and Offensive Efficiency help portray a team’s characteristics in their half of the inning.
Offensive Productivity is all about how proficient a team is (or isn’t) in producing base runners. Short of a solo home run, it’s next to impossible to score runs without getting men on base. Offensive Efficiency is a measure of how “easy” it is for a team to score those runs. Teams with higher slugging percentages are typically more efficient in this regard.
This graphic compares four offenses’ Productivity and Efficiency. Like the bullpen ratings in the previous section, the Astros are quite good in these categories. They get men on and knock them in routinely, as opposed to the Blue Jays. Toronto struggles at the plate with power and average, as shown by the low ratings in both rows.
Displaying Current Form
The MLB Team Unit Ratings portray teams’ identities through a given point in the season. As we all know, the MLB season is extremely long (prompting reasonable arguments in support of shortening it). Teams typically go through ebbs and flows over the six-month season, requiring us to view these characteristics through the lens of recency.
“Recency” is rife in the amateur realm, where too much emphasis is placed on trends and streaks. To provide balance, I blend data from a trailing 14-day period with season-to-date data to produce the metrics I use in my handicapping and the Team Unit Ratings. The trend relates the 14-day period to the full season.
The most apparent way to visualize the trend is through the bar color. Reddish hues indicate a positive trend; blues show negative trends. The deeper the color, the more extreme the trend is. This is expressed on a scale of -50 to 50, as opposed to the 0-to-100 scale for the rating itself.
These MLB Team Unit Ratings are just one of the handicapping resources we provide at BetCrushers.com. Be sure to visit our MLB page throughout the baseball season for analysis and insights. Don’t forget the Handicappers Library that contains level-up insights into topics like bankroll management, wagering techniques, and other sport-specific subjects. Best of luck with your MLB handicapping!
