It only took three days or so but I think I’ve finished making adjustments after a hectic Trade Deadline last week. Teams are crystallizing into their stretch run forms as the grind continues in the first half of August with a full slate of Tuesday baseball. And the search for value continues with a Solo Shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 8-8-2023. As always, BOL to you all!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
HOUSTON ASTROS @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES (HOU -125, 8)
F Valdez (L) vs. G Rodriguez (R)
Camden Yards hosts the early week’s premier series between the AL East-leading O’s and the hard-charging Houston Astros. Monday’s day off for both clubs reset the bullpens for the most part and refreshed the position player corps. Tonight, one of the hottest lineups in the majors goes toe to toe with the reigning AL Player of the Week, Framber Valdez. So why not start the handicap with this particular aspect?
BAL Offense by Month
| R | HR | BABIP | LINE | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August | 39 | 5 | .394 | .327/.389/.486 | 141 |
| July | 126 | 28 | .292 | .241/.304/.412 | 96 |
| June | 103 | 31 | .297 | .251/.309/.421 | 100 |
| May | 134 | 31 | .295 | .248/.319/.416 | 102 |
| Mar/Apr | 147 | 34 | .297 | .256/.335/.426 | 110 |
Maybe a 141 wRC+ powered by a .394 BABIP isn’t a long term expectation for the Orioles after a white hot start in August. Baltimore’s prospects against Framber Valdez should give the lineup a boost of confidence despite the southpaw just having dealt a complete game shutout against the Guardians one week ago. When you look at exactly who is pulling their weight at the plate, it’s no surprise to see the likes of Rutschman, Henderson, and Santander producing at high levels. Throw in Brandon Hyde’s platoon players McCann and Westburg to reach another level of value for this offense.
The other side of this equation is Framber, who turned around a rough five-outing stretch with last week’s almost-perfect game. Those previous five starts yielded 21 runs in 27.0 innings on a 7.00 ERA and 4.90 FIP/4.19 xFIP. Only once in that month-long period did Valdez hold opponents to less than 4 runs. In terms of looking forward, that 4.19 xFIP speaks more to the lefty’s true production level in spite of adversity. Even in that toughest stretch of the 2023 season, his expected numbers were not all that inflated when stacked up against a season-long 3.07 ERA and 3.10 FIP/3.12 xFIP. So I’m comfortable grading Framber Valdez in the low-to-mid 3.00s for this contest.
Breaking in the Rookie
What does the full-strength Astros lineup have in store for 23-year-old Grayson Rodriguez? Powerful left-handed hitters Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are in very good form. In fact, going back to last Monday’s start to the Cleveland series, Alvarez has mashed 3 long balls en route to a .333/.417/.810 slash line and stellar 229 wRC+. Despite Yordan’s outburst, the Astros lineup as a whole has stumbled to a .218/.314/.404, 101 wRC+ start to the month of August. So sell the hot Orioles’ bats against Framber and buy the Astros coming out of a little slump?
Grayson has taken his share of lumps as a rookie, posting a 6.09 ERA alongside a 4.79 FIP/3.78 xFIP and 4.15 SIERA. In other words, there’s light at the end of the tunnel. The kid found himself in one of those good start, bad start cycles that earned him a trip back down to AAA at the end of May. His turnaround has been significant since returning to the O’s 26-man roster though.
G Rodriguez, Before & After May 26th
| K% | BB% | BABIP | ERA | FIP/xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 5/26 | 23.3% | 9.3% | .259 | 3.57 | 2.56/3.50 |
| Thru 5/26 | 26.5% | 10.0% | .372 | 7.35 | 5.92/3.92 |
In light of the rookie’s turnaround since the mid-July call up, I grade him in the mid-to-upper 3.00s in this one. That earns Framber a half-run or greater advantage over his counterpart. That makes sense considering how the road team is tagged as the 55% favorite. Some of this price hinges on the starting pitcher gap, but what about the lineups? Again, the question is sell the Orioles’ hot week and buy the Astros’ finding their groove?
What about the bullpens though? One of Houston’s strengths in last year’s World Series run was its relief unit. Since the All-Star Break, however, the 2023 version is next to last with a 5.92 FIP. Their 4.69 ERA and 5.01 xFIP temper that raw number a bit but the comparison to Baltimore’s group is night and day. How about a second-lowest 3.17 FIP since the break along with a 2.88 ERA and 3.66 xFIP? Coulombe-Cano-Bautista is one hell of a finish if Rodriguez can get his club into the 6th inning. This is Baltimore or pass for me, especially at FanDuel’s generous price of +116.
Heading for Home
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