Sometimes the best laid plans get crushed by reality. As for Triston McKenzie’s curveball Tuesday night, Arizona watched it miss the strike zone time and time again, pouncing on the inevitable fastball. An ugly swing-and-miss on my part. But the MLB Morning Breakdown for 8-6-2022 rolls on with a pair of divisional afterthoughts who continue to battle through August. That fight has earned one of these clubs an outside shot at reaching the postseason for the first time since 2016. A team of destiny? Perhaps in the sense that just three more wins separate the O’s from hitting futures bet #1 of the 2022 season…
PITTSBURGH PIRATES @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES (-155)
JT Brubaker (R) vs. A. Voth (R)
Have the Baltimore Orioles peaked in terms of market perception? After all, we’re talking about laying -155 behind Austin Voth – a guy who cleared waivers from Washington and found himself a new home 40 miles northeast a couple months ago. No matter how you look at it, Baltimore is a team still fighting for its place in the crowded AL East and Wild Card race. Just what are the bookmakers looking at exactly with a 60% win probability on the Mancini-less O’s? For one, they see a lineup that has largely held its own this season and is in decent form coming into this afternoon’s contest.
BAL Offense, by Period/Split
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | .236 | .304 | .389 | 95 |
| vs RHP | .238 | .306 | .395 | 97 |
| 2nd Half | .251 | .325 | .400 | 105 |
| L7 Days | .255 | .328 | .412 | 107 |
Baltimore’s slight bias against right-handers like JT Brubaker is generated by a steady top third of their lineup, even without Trey Mancini. The departed first baseman’s .404 SLG against righties is certainly missed but switch hitters Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander have been steady in their own rights with this split (127 and 125 wRC+, respectively). Reformed switch-hitting leadoff man Cedric Mullins’ 103 wRC+ against right-handers helps the cause, especially while doing damage on the base paths. This trio is the engine that fuels the Orioles lineup these days.
The offensive deficit that the Pirates face on paper has one key exception: Bryan Reynolds. Pittsburgh’s switch-hitting center fielder has feasted on right-handers with a 123 wRC+ and .458 SLG. The guy has been hot lately with 6 hits in the last three games, helping fuel their recent sweep of the NL Central leading Brewers. Just as the Orioles have a hole left behind by righty-masher Trey Mancini, the Pirates dealt Daniel Vogelbach and his .430 SLG and 117 wRC+ against RHP. That’s a relative wash in my opinion. Hence my estimated 8-14% offensive premium that Baltimore holds over the Buccos.
Whose Arms Will Hold It Down?
JT Brubaker is not an easy test for the O’s by any stretch. Especially as the 28-year-old has fared much better on the road (3.37 FIP/3.56 xFIP) than at PNC Park (4.59 FIP/4.75 xFIP). This effectiveness away from home rests on a 25.4% K rate that is 7.6% higher than in the friendly confines on the North Shore. Don’t ask me why, it just is. Plus JT has worked through the 6th inning in five of his last seven starts. So expect him to take some pressure off of a Pirates bullpen that has largely held its own of late.
Opposing Brubaker is a guy who the Nats did not see much value occupying their bullpen or their “vaunted rotation”, for that matter. Somehow the O’s have fared just fine with Austin Voth in their inexperienced rotation. Maybe the air around Inner Harbor has refreshed him and can help fuel a long shot playoff push. Okay, maybe that’s a stretch. But in the early goings things have been working decently for Baltimore with Voth as a starter (3.04 FIP/3.52 xFIP). In reality, I make Voth’s range fairly close to Brubaker’s while falling about an inning short of duration. Austin working in the low-4.00s FIP this evening could jeopardize the Orioles’ offensive advantage though.
Then we have the matter of bullpens. Baltimore’s relief unit should have a 1/4- to 1/3-run edge to FIP as both are without their premier closers – the Pirates’ David Bednar is on the IL while Jorge Lopez is in Minnesota. I’ve minimized the Orioles’ bullpen edge as left-hander Cionel Perez and righty closer Felix Bautista both labored in last night’s 1-0 victory. One or both high-leverage guys may not be available. That’s one of several reasons to tread cautiously at a steep price point of -155…but I’m backing the O’s nonetheless. My guess is this will be a steady line through the day.
WAGER: Orioles Manufactured -1 RL (-155 ML/+140 RL)
ALTERNATIVE: Orioles -1 (-113)
My approach to betting the Orioles here is to be more aggressive by laying the run on the full game line. I’ve also passed on playing a cheaper outright -1 that has an upfront cost of -113. Sure, I’m laying -128 but also sitting on a +120 payout if the Baltimore offense gradually grinds out a multi-run lead through the later innings. Multiple facets need to align for a 2-run or greater victory at Oriole Park – but my money is behind it. I have to trust my numbers and my intuition here. BOL!
Heading for Home
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