I think I’ve nailed down all of my Trade Deadline adjustments. What a whirlwind once again between buyers, sellers, and even a few in-between clubs straddling the line. After a slim Thursday slate, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 8-2-2024 gets back in action to handicap the series opener between the AL East co-leader New York Yankees and the out-of-contention Toronto Blue Jays. Can Canada’s team play the role of spoiler in a tight divisional race this weekend? Baltimore sure hopes so!
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees (NYY -160, 9)
Toronto’s role as trade deadline seller cemented the club’s position for the stretch run, shipping off position players Justin Turner, Danny Jansen, and Kevin Kiermaier along with relievers Nate Pearson, Yimi Garcia, and Trevor Richards. The Yankees, on the other hand, were slightly less active in the trade market. But the lower volume does not mean lack of potency. Marlins standout Jazz Chisholm Jr. brought instant energy to the lineup while the bullpen received a shot in the arm from Mark Leiter Jr. and Enyel De Los Santos.
The Chisholm deal amped up a Yankees lineup that was rounding back into form after their brief lull was snapped last weekend in Boston. Since returning from the ASB, New York leads the MLB in park-adjusted offensive production. Not to be completely outdone, Toronto has kept the wheels turning in spite of the early week selloff. Will we get more fireworks when these lineups square off this weekend?
TOR & NYY Offensive Production, Last 7 Days
| BB% | K% | BABIP | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 8.5% | 18.7% | .344 | .298/.358/.472 | 132 |
| NYY | 10.3% | 17.3% | .324 | .314/.375/.589 | 166 |
| MLB | 7.8% | 21.8% | .297 | .255//.321/.436 | 112 |
Generating runs has not been an issue for either club lately, let alone for the entire league. Friendly hitting conditions have a lot to do with this phenomenon in general as the dog days returned for most of the country. Even so, Toronto’s recent success has arguably been propped up by a meaty BABIP that ranks fifth highest over the past week. Not that the Yanks haven’t benefitted from some general overachieving in that department as well.
But the power surge has done more for this offense than simply being on the more fortunate side of things. New York’s .589 slugging ranks only behind a Diamondbacks team who feasted off of left-handed pitching this week. Plus they’ve been one of the more disciplined lineups at the plate. The Chisholm bump poured some gas on the fire that the Soto-Judge machine has stoked. With Giancarlo Stanton back from the IL and Alex Verdugo seemingly getting his act together, the Jays will have their hands full tonight.
K Gausman (R) vs. M Stroman (R)
33-year-old righty Kevin Gausman has been a mild disappointment compared to his first two seasons in Toronto. Sure, the veteran starter’s 3.82 FIP/3.87 xFIP looks better than the 4.44 ERA. But it is the lack of strikeouts that has been a thorn in his side. Gausman’s A+ splitter lacks the effectiveness that propped up a stellar 5.3 WAR valuation last season. Instead, a 23.0% strikeout rate marks his worst figure since 2018 – the turning point in his career. Plus it does not help that the Yankees tagged him for 7 runs on 7 hits a month ago. Kevin has been fighting command issues lately too, forking over 13 walks across his last five starts.
Walks have also plagued Yankees starter Marcus Stroman occasionally this season. He’s been matching Kevin Gausman in strikeout futility with a 17.1% K rate that matches his career low set back in 2018. Although Stro has never really made his mark as a strikeout pitcher. As a ground ball contact guy, his .267 BABIP has been his best friend in 2024. It’s a major reason why Marcus’ 3.64 ERA is accompanied by a whopping 5.24 FIP/4.75 xFIP. Even though he’s giving up home runs at the highest rate in his career, Stroman has come away relatively unscathed when compared to the volume of bombs yielded (18).
Complicating Matters
We’ll see how deep Kevin Gasman goes tonight after pulling off a complete game against Texas last weekend. That followed three straight starts of 6+ innings – a trend that manager John Schneider needs to continue. His bullpen lost some beef to the trade market, leaving Chad Green as the sole truly capable high-leverage arm. On the flip side, the Yankees bolstered their pen for the playoff run.
Yet there are two key issues facing this unit tonight: workload and a lack of lefties. Veteran Tim Hill stands as the sole southpaw in the group against a lineup that should present four left-handed hitters. Even after a rest day, Aaron Boone has to consider a back end that worked back-to-back games Tuesday and Wednesday. This isn’t something that necessarily restricts the availability of go-to arms Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Luke Weaver, and newcomer Mark Leiter Jr. – but it does put Boone in a bind when thinking ahead to the rest of the weekend series.
Both pitching staffs should be mildly relieved that right field won’t play all that much shorter due to weather. There should be a small premium for the lineups compared to Yankee Stadium’s baseline though. And the Yankees are better suited to take advantage of their home park’s dimensions. A small counterbalance comes with two of the better defenses taking the field – even if Toronto is missing shortstop Bo Bichette and the recently-traded Kevin Kiermaier.
What’s the Verdict?
Right now I’m on the sidelines with the minor threat of passing storms in New York this evening. Despite all of the elements that line up in the Yankees’ favor, the +140 tag on the visiting Blue Jays is value in my eyes. Bettable value? That’s debatable considering I am not 100% confident that the full effects of Toronto’s roster moves have been factored into my handicap. Weather interruptions or a delayed start can be wonky when the starting pitcher is a considerable part of the handicap – which Kevin Gausman is in this matchup. If the price is still around later today and the forecast isn’t too iffy, +140 or a +1 could be in store for me. Either way, BOL this weekend and we’ll catch you early next week.
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