A ho-hum week and choppy weekend right aligned well with the dog days of summer while leaving me in the game with an interesting Monday slate ahead. As July comes to a close, it drags along with it the MLB trade deadline where hopeful contenders pair up with sellers to meet a variety of short-term and long-term organizational goals. The MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-31-2023 takes a quick look at a matchup of contenders and one that involves a team embroiled in a divisional race of particular interest to me. BOL this week!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
BALTIMORE ORIOLES @ TORONTO BLUE JAYS (TOR -140, 9)
Baltimore put on a show early and often against Luis Severino and the Yankees last night. They struck quickly and did not look back, ultimately putting another game in between the AL East rivals and maintaining the Orioles’ 1.5-game lead over Tampa Bay. Now the O’s head north of the border to face Wild Card contender Toronto. Going into Sunday’s series finales, these two lineups were heading in different directions despite Baltimore maintaining their grip on the divisional standings.
Offensive Overview Since ASB, BAL/TOR (thru 7/29)
| R | BB% | K% | Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 60 | 6.7% | 23.9% | .217/.273/.387 | 78 |
| TOR | 69 | 10.0% | 22.2% | .286/.368/.463 | 131 |
What should we make of this gap in offensive production? For one, Baltimore being without Cedric Mullins and backup centerfielder Aaron Hicks is part of the story. But that doesn’t account for such a big drop overall. Their short-term slump will reverse course at some point, as will Toronto’s hot streak. We saw that in a one-game sample on Sunday – the Jays mustered a pair of runs against Tyler Anderson and the Angels’ bullpen while Baltimore went off in the first inning against the Yankees. Expect a further reversal of these trends or more of the same tonight?
K Gibson (R) vs. C Bassitt (R)
Toronto’s Christ Bassitt may have something to say about Baltimore’s attempt to get the offense back on track. Since the All-Star Break, Bassitt has been stout, yielding 4 runs on 15 hits in 17.0 innings of work. He was spared excessive damage after yielding 4 walks to the Dodgers last time out, otherwise, the veteran righty has been effective enough to let the Jays’ hitters do their thing and get some much-needed Ws. Whether Bassitt can extend this three-game stretch of 2.12 ERA, 3.22 FIP/3.98 xFIP work partially depends on whether the Orioles have broken out of their downtrend.
Kyle Gibson’s similar pitch-to-contact approach has maintained his viability as the rotation leader in Baltimore. However, pinning the 35-year-old down to a reasonable range to handicap from is a challenge to say the least. Case in point, Kyle has delivered six starts since June with more strikeouts than hits allowed compared to four of the opposite. Should Chris Bassitt and the Blue Jays lineup be a bigger favorite than -140, let alone having a similar price on the first 5 inning line? Are these pitchers more on par with one another, or does Gibson’s wider variance create opportunity in one direction or the other? It’s almost as if there’s too much data on teams and individual players at this point in the season. Paralysis by analysis is a thing, after all.
The Weak Link?
Don’t overlook the fact that the Jays’ bullpen will be more compromised than their opponent’s tonight. At least on the back end. With closer Jordan Romano on the IL and high-leverage stalwart Yimi Garcia having worked three days in a row, the door could be open for the O’s after Bassitt exits. This puts an even bigger emphasis on the starter’s longevity tonight. Six full innings put the bullpen in a much better position to close with a Richards-Mayza-Swanson finale after middle relievers Genesis Cabrera and Jay Jackson logged relief appearances on Saturday and Sunday. No significant usage issues surround the Orioles’ elite bullpen, earning them a firm advantage in the contest unless Toronto creates a large lead going into the latter innings.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ WASHINGTON NATIONALS (MIL -190, 9)
C Burnes (R) vs. J Irvin (R)
The series opener in the Nation’s Capital is more interesting than the betting line of -190 tells us. Milwaukee’s weekend sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves left them looking up at a Cincinnati Reds’ half-game lead in the NL Central. The disappointing trip to the ATL wasn’t spoiled by a lack of offense. The Brew Crew’s 18 runs simply wasn’t enough to keep up with the Braves’ 29. Atlanta will do that to you.
What is particularly interesting to me is the resurgence of former NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes. Sure, most of his success in the month of July has come at the expense of my Reds – 3 starts, 8 hits, 4 runs, and a 2-0 record against Cincy. Burnes fired up counts of 13 and 10 strikeouts in this five-game stretch as well as 7, 6, and 6. I’m not interested in the side or total in this game, however, the ace’s strikeout prop of 6.5 is tempting me this morning. Corbin’s 25.4% K rate is way down from the past four seasons around or above the 30% mark. But isolate his performance in July and the rate jumps to 34.4%!
Pump the Brakes?
The Washington Nationals don’t give into pitchers too easily though. Not only do they have the second-lowest strikeout rate in 2023 (18.7%), they’ve been consistent in doing so throughout the season. Similar marks since the ASB and this past week must be the deciding factor to juice Corbin Burnes’ 6.5 K prop heavily to the under. -160 is mighty pricey! The big factor in play is that Washington strikes out 7-8% less than Burnes’ July opponents of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia. Is the over fool’s gold at +115? Or is this legitimate plus-money value with one of the league’s best pitchers right now? I don’t have the answer this morning…maybe I’ll stake a stand before it gets too late though. BOL with your action this week!
Heading for Home
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